Wine Gourd data-blog final post, and my farewell

This is intended to be my final post for this blog. I have had a lot of fun over the past 10 years, from May 2016 (first post) to now (January 2026), which covers 509 posts. I have had 1,479,000 accesses in total, which is an average of 2,900 reads per post, although I have tended to mostly get c.500 readers per post. I think that this is quite respectable, given the relatively restricted topic.

I had my first official taste of wine in 1975 (at age 17) in Australia. According to Anderson & Pinilla (2023), global wine consumption per capita has been going steadily downhill since that year (but not before) — see the first graph below. While I do not feel any personal responsibility for this situation (What did I do?), I do recognize that it is becoming harder and harder to write anything meaningful about the wine industry.

I have therefore now written most of what I can think of to write about the analysis of data in the wine industry, which is what this blog is supposed to be about. So, I figure that I should stop while I am ahead.

This next graph shows the blog page-views through time, up to last year, showing that they have been fairly consistent, or slightly increasing.

The next graph shows the page-views over the past year, showing a big burst in May.

Interestingly, my most popular posts have been:

• Australia‘s biggest wine companies (2019) (23,692 readers)
• Laube versus Suckling (2018) (14,281 readers)
• How large does a winery have to be, to be consistently profitable? (2020) (12,265 readers).

My readers have mostly been from the USA. The other half of the readers have been scattered equally throughout the rest of the world, as shown next.

Anyway, my last piece of wine data (this post) is apparently about the current downhill slide of global wine consumption — with better performances from producers selling more expensive wines, which is the smaller part of the market, and shrinking sales for those selling less than $US30. This is sad, but perhaps not unexpected, given what is currently being written by experts in the wine field (eg. Declining wine consumption in EU forecast to continue; Shadows over northern California; Are things getting better for the wine industry?; 2026: the year to change the narrative about wine; How the world of wine is set to change in 2026; Wine’s moment of truth: it's time to reinvent; Understanding deconsumption). None of this is especially new, of course (eg. Winescape Summer 2025).

Moreover, we have been told that wine writing is having similar problems:

• Why wine writing might die
• The future of wine writing in a changing industry
• How a (very) few number of humans can stay employed as wine writers in the age of AI.

We have also been told that: affordability and value for money will be 2026’s wine watchwords; but these have always been my own personal watchwords for choosing wine. So, select your wines carefully, to make sure that you enjoy every drop.

Curiously, given the global situation, the wine industry in Thailand is currently booming (The fastest growing wine market in the world is not where you expect). Somehow, I find this quite satisfying. Also, given climate change, Sweden and Norway will likely become more prominent viticultural areas (for example: Why the Swedish wine movement is only going to get bigger; or Wines of Norway). This seems quite gratifying, given that I live in Sweden (where we have had more snow this winter than for many years, as shown below).

I may still write the occasional blog post. In the meantime, I will keep my eye on the wine industry, but for the moment from this blog: goodbye, hej då, au revoir, auf wiedersehen, adieu, adiós ...

Christmas drink traditions in Sweden

I am currently stocking up on my specially brewed Christmas beers, both alcohol-free and otherwise, along with glögg, julmust and svagdricka (explained below). All of these seasonal drinks appear in the Swedish shops, or they can be ordered from the central warehouses. The products available can vary from year to year.

The first of these drinks (glögg) is a punch or mulled wine, which is traditionally consumed during winter, especially around Christmas. The recipes vary widely throughout Scandinavia, but essentially it is based on white or sweet wine, or spirits such as brandy or cognac. Water is first boiled and the chosen spices are added to it, and this is simmered. The resulting mixture is sieved, and the wine or spirits are added; or fruit juice is added for a non-alcoholic version. It is consumed with gingerbread (round, star-shaped, heart-shaped), and almonds and sultanas are soaked in the brew in the special cup it is served in. You can read more about it here, or watch a video here.

The second drink (julmust) is a soda. The underlying syrup (called must) is apparently made exclusively by Roberts in the town of Örebro. This syrup is sold to soft-drink manufacturers, who then make the final product their own way. The syrup is apparently made of carbonated water, sugar, hop extract, malt extract, spices, caramel colouring, and citric acid. You can read more about it here or here.

The third drink (svagdricka) is a low-alcohol malt drink (less than 2.25% ABV). It is sweet and dark. You can read a little more about it here.
  

There are also the specially brewed Christmas beers, both alcohol-free and otherwise. Swedes love their beers, and there are special brews released for different celebrations (Säsongslanseringar = Seasonal releases), including Easter, and Octoberfest, in addition to Christmas. You can check out the current alcoholic releases (80 at the time of writing, mainly ales, and dark or medium-dark lagers) from the alcohol-monopoly (Systembolaget), with the catalog at: Julöl. I should also note that many of the low-alcohol beers in Sweden are actually very good.

Sweden also makes many fruit wines, as I recently noted in my post: What countries are best represented in Sweden’s wine retailer monopoly?

Jack Jakobsson has a summary (in Swedish) of the 2025 Xmas drink releases at: Julen 2025: Systembolaget | hela provningen.

This is, indeed, a joyous time! God jul! 1

1 Note that on 27 August 2025 a publication appeared called: How much is too much? A methodological investigation of the literature on alcohol consumption and health. It states: “We conclude that the claim that ‘there is no safe level’ of alcohol intake is not sufficiently supported based on our current scientific knowledge.” Quite right, too.

A recent survey of consumer support for changes to alcohol policies in the USA

There is much talk these days about alcohol consumption and the extent to which it should be subject to government regulation. There is much pressure, especially in the USA, to more severely restrict it (eg. The backlash to the alcohol recommendations of the U.S. Dietary Guidelines is coming). Tom Wark notes: “I believe that the single most important thing the industry can do to give wine a real lift is to repeal the most regressive wine regulations” (What does the wine industry actually need right now? 9 experts weigh in).

So, it is timely to find out what the opinions might be from the populace as a whole. One recent attempt (October 3, 2025) to do this is:

Support for alcohol control policies among US alcohol consumers
JAMA Network Open 8(10): e2535337

The authors summarize their work this way:
Key Points

Question: To what extent do US adults who consume alcohol support alcohol control policies?

Findings: In this survey study of 1036 US adults who consume alcohol, approximately one-half supported — and few opposed — policies to restrict alcohol advertising to children and to require calorie content information, drinks per container information, and cancer warnings on alcohol containers. Fewer adults supported policies to lower the blood alcohol content limit for driving, increase alcohol taxes, or limit the times or places alcohol can be sold.
Meaning: These findings suggest that among alcohol control policies, public support is highest for advertising restrictions and information provision policies.

Crucially, the authors make a big deal of having “a nationally representative sample of US adults who consume alcohol”, and they describe this sample in great detail. So, we can reasonably rely on their work.

Their detailed results were:

“Approximately one-half supported policies requiring alcohol containers to display cancer warnings (49%), drinks per container information (51%), and calorie content information (56%). Likewise, 52% supported prohibiting alcohol advertisements on television when children are likely to be watching. By contrast, fewer participants supported than opposed policies to lower the blood alcohol content limit for driving, prohibit alcohol sales late at night, and increase taxes on alcohol (range supporting: 16% to 25%); support was lowest for policies to reduce the number of outlets licensed to sell alcohol (10%).”

The main limitation of the work appears to be their requirement that the surveyed people “reported drinking at least 1 alcoholic beverage per week during the past 4 weeks”. The authors note that also “assessing support also among non-consumers is important given that alcohol control policies could prevent consumption among non-consumers”.

Thanks to Lewis Perdue for drawing this work to my attention.

Portugal leading world wine consumption

My wife and I just spent a very nice week as tourists in the south of Portugal. Portugal is a relatively small country, but it does produce quite a fair amount of wine (10th in the world, and 5th in Europe). One other thing that cannot be missed is the amount of wine that is being drunk, per person. So, this is worth looking at in a blog post.

First, let us look at the actual data. This map shows the amount of wine consumed per person per year for each country (from Wine consumption by country).

As you can see, Portugal is seriously high. It is therefore worth looking at the actual numbers, which we can do in this table (from the same source). As you can see, Portugal is number 2 in the world, at 52 liters per person (ie. 1 liter per week).

What my wife and I noticed during our trip is that almost every person in every restaurant was drinking wine, at both lunch and dinner time. That is, most of the adult population was consuming wine every day.

After all, Portugal has a long tradition of drinking wine — it is normal to treat food and wine as closely connected (unlike, say, beer). So, it is normal to see the same people drinking a glass of wine at both lunch and dinner; and also to see people eating on their own, drinking wine normally. There is also so much wine available, and it is certainly not expensive. Many vines were planted following the devastating earthquake of the 1700s (1755 Lisbon earthquake), after which the area around Porto was also protected. Similarly, the Anglo-French Wars of that same period led to the planting of lots of cultivars in the Portuguese vineyards. Availability leads to cultural habits.

This wine-drinking cultural situation is not necessarily so in the English-speaking world. Unlike mainland Europe, where wine has long been part of the culture, it has not been the case in Britain, especially during the challenging post-WWII years. Moreover, The World Health Organization decreed in 2023 that alcohol is not safe for consumption (No level of alcohol consumption is safe for our health); and the public is continually fed a media diet of health warnings (Can the beverage industry stand united amid anti-alcohol animosity on multiple fronts?). I have previously discussed the fact that neither of these latter viewpoints is justified (e.g. Another official study indicating that alcohol is not necessarily a risk for cancer).

It is worth noting that there has previously also been high individual consumption of wine for some nations. If we consider Consumption of wine, beer and spirits in 1899, then we can note that the French apparently consumed 112 liters of wine per head, which is a third of a liter per day. This makes the modern Portuguese look mild!

Recent trends in declining US wine consumption

We have all read warnings about declining wine consumption over recent years, especially in the USA. There are a few things about this situation that are worth summarizing here, based on recent reports from the national Gallup survey organization’s Latest Insights into alcohol consumption (eg. U.S. drinking rate at new low as alcohol concerns surge).

First, let us make it clear what we mean by declining alcohol consumption. Gallup summarizes U.S. alcohol usage since 1939 as in this first graph. Note that it is clear that usage was fairly consistent from roughly 1980 through to 2020, but that it has decreased notably over the past half-decade.

We can now take a look at which parts of the previously drinking population are estimated to have recently stopped drinking (between 2023 and 2025). This table summarizes my calculations from the Gallup data.

Recent trend in percentages of U.S. adults who report they drink alcohol, by subgroup

All U.S. adults	12.9
Gender
Men	8.0
Women	17.1
Race/Ethnicity
White adults	17.9
People of color	3.7
Age
18 to 34	15.3
35 to 54	15.2
55 and older	8.2
Annual household income
less than 40.000	25.9
40.000—99.999	6.9
100.000 or more	16.5
Party ID
Republicans	29.2
Independents	9.8
Democrats	4.7

You may make of these numbers what you will, especially with regard to White, Female, Poor, Republicans. It is clear that only a subset of adults have decreased their alcohol consumption, but it is not a small subset.

The often-given reason for these declines has to do with changing perception, over the past decade, of the health effects of alcohol. This situation is summarized in this next graph, also from Gallup. Those people who think that even moderate alcohol consumption is bad now out-number even those who think that it makes no difference (let alone think it is good for you!).

I have discussed this latter topic in more detail in a recent blog post (WHO has an unattainable requirement for health and wine).

Chimpanzees, humans and drinking wine

You may have seen some recent posts about alcohol drinking by chimpanzees. For example:

• Wild chimps consume the equivalent of two glasses of wine a day
• In the wild, chimpanzees likely ingest the equivalent of several alcoholic drinks every day
• Berkley finds chimps consume same as two glasses of wine daily

The basic claim is that chimpanzees naturally consume alcohol when they eat fermenting fruits in the wild. The conclusion from this is that we probably got our own predisposition to alcohol consumption from the ancestor that we share with the chimpanzees.

This alcohol claim about chimpanzees is like saying: “our cousins drink alcohol and so we do too, because our shared ancestor did”. This conclusion is the one also arrived at in the original science article quoted by the web page references above (Ethanol ingestion via frugivory in wild chimpanzees).

For those of you who are unclear about this situation, consider the above diagram (taken from the Encyclopedia Britannica article: Human evolution). In this diagram, we are labeled as “Homo sapiens”, and chimpanzees are labeled as “Genus Pan”. Evolutionary time in this particular diagram proceeds from left to right, and so our most recent common ancestor (ie. the one from which both humans and chimpanzees descend) is clearly indicated. This is simply the same as saying that my cousins and I share at least one pair of grandparents (through either our mothers or fathers).

It does not follow, however, that my cousins and I share all of our characteristics, and that we inherited them from those shared grandparents.

However, the formal scientific study of evolutionary history, sometimes called cladistics, actually works by observing that one group of organisms has some particular characteristic while their near relatives do not. Consider this next diagram, from my own scientific research on the plant group Lechenaultia. (My own career was as a biologist, in which one of my fields of study was evolutionary history.)

In this case, evolutionary time proceeds from right to left, and particular features of the plants are numbered. For example Character 20 is shown as being shared by the species “formosa” and “chlorantha”, and in this case is therefore inferred to have been inherited from their common ancestor. Similarly, Characters 13 and 17 are shared by them with “linarioides”, while “linarioides” does not have Character 20. It is this grouping of characters that allows the scientist to construct the diagram in the first place.

However, note that Characters 1 and 2 appear several places in the diagram, so that having either of these characters does not automatically make those species closely related, evolutionarily, nor that they inherited these characters from a common ancestor.

So, it does not necessarily follow that chimpanzees consuming alcohol automatically implies that their ancestors also consumed it, nor that their cousins (us) did so in the past, either. We both drink now, but we did not necessarily do so in the past, although this is taken to be the simplest conclusion. 

We would, however, be much better off if we had some more concrete evidence regarding the drinking behavior of our ancestors. Note that the original science article cited above observes: “The earliest archeological evidence for controlled fermentation dates to 9,000 to 13,000 years ago in China and in the Middle East”. This is not really all that long ago, when comparing us to chimpanzees!

WHO has an unattainable requirement for health and wine

In my professional life I have been a biologist in Australia. I studied at the University of Sydney (B.Sc., and Ph.D.), and I was an academic at the University of Technology, Sydney (UTS). For example, I studied the biology of native Australian plants in response to fire; and I also studied the evolutionary biology of particular Australian plants. (And yes, I have described a few new plant species; eg. see Lechenaultia, and the picture below.)

I taught about biomedical science, as well as plant and animal biology. So, the effect of wine on human bodies has been of both professional and personal interest to me. It has consequently made its appearance many times in this blog. More importantly, I don't just accept what official bodies tell me about how good or bad wine is for me, but I can make my own professional judgement based on the scientific evidence available.

Recently, for example, there have been these Wine Gourd blog posts:

• Contrary to WHO, recent medical research shows that wine is safe for cancer
• Medical research concerning heart disease indicates that wines are safe to drink 
• More medical results suggesting that wines are usually safe to drink
• Another official study indicating that alcohol is not necessarily a risk for cancer

What I would like to do in this current post is point out another recent commentary article, by Dr Erik Skovenborg, that seems to me to make a set of very important points regarding the current negative attitude of the World Health Organization (WHO) towards alcohol:

An unattainable WHO condition for the enjoyment of wine
August 26, 2025
Dr Erik Skovenborg

The essential point of the article is this: Science can’t prove a negative. So, as Skovenborg quotes the UK Health Security Agency:

“As the nation’s top public health advisory body, it’s a pretty regular occurrence for Public Health England to release health advice on a range of topics. Often enough, the bottom line for one of these pieces of advice is that the issue at hand ‘poses a low risk to health.’ Sometimes it’s even a ‘very low risk.’ What we never say, however, is that it poses no risk.”

That is, science can never prove that alcohol poses no risk to health, only that it is or is not a low risk. However, the WHO does require precisely that:

“To identify a ‘safe’ level of alcohol consumption, valid scientific evidence would need to demonstrate that at and below a certain level, there is no risk of illness or injury associated with alcohol consumption.”

So, as Skovenborg notes, “there can be no scientific demonstration of a 100% safe level of alcohol consumption ... Nevertheless, the WHO recommends an unattainable condition for the enjoyment of wine: the scientific demonstration of a 100% safe level of alcohol consumption.”

What we can all do, however, in light of the fact that virtually everything in life is risky, is decide whether any given circumstance poses an acceptable risk to us personally.

Dr Skovenborg provides an excellent discussion of evaluating the magnitude of the health risk of light to moderate wine enjoyment. This risk cannot be zero, as required by WHO, but there is little evidence that the risk to health is high. I recommend that you read his article, and take his discussion quite seriously.

PS. The latest news is: Moderate drinking linked with lower mortality in Parkinson’s patients.

Australia’s domestic wine market

Australia is currently the 12th largest wine market by volume in the world (but the 5th largest wine exporter in the world, as discussed last week: Australia’s wine export situation). So, I thought that it might be interesting to have a quick look at some of their actual statistics. This can be done using the Wine Australia: Australian wine sector at a glance.

Below, I have compiled the data for the past four reports.

The volume and value of the wine in the market went down and then up again during that time. This only partly reflects the decreasing pattern in global wine consumption (Global wine consumption really is at its lowest for a very long time), and Australia’s decreasing production. Also, Australia has been up to 10th largest global market, although it is now 12th.

The amount of imported wine in the domestic market was about 1/5th, but decreased at the end. So, the global market does make a considerable contribution to the Australian market.

The top-selling still wine varieties in the off-trade market by value varied considerably across the 4 years. Shiraz was, not unexpectedly, at the top for most of the years, with about 1/5th of the market. Two white varieties have been next during that time, with Sauvignon blanc being replaced as second by Chardonnay. Cabernet sauvignon has had about 1/10th of the market, although it was missing early on. Pinot noir was another popular variety, as was Pinot grigio.

Global wine consumption really is at its lowest for a very long time

We are being told repeatedly that current world wine consumption is getting lower, as is production, so I thought that it might be interesting to show an actual picture of consumption (ie. a graph). I have not done this for 7 years (The smallest global wine production for 55 years?).

My idea here is to plot the data back as far as we can go, which turns out to be 1860. We can do this using the Statistical Compendium produced by the Wine Economics Research Centre, at the University of Adelaide. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine online data go back only to 1995.

So, I have updated the data from my 2018 blog post, and here is the new graph.

As you can see, consumption increased pretty continuously until the late 1950s, with a big dip for World War II. Since then, it has had two ups-and-downs, with the first down being from the 1980s into the 1990s, and the second down being from 2012 to now. So, total world wine consumption really is the same now as it was back in 1960!

Note, also, that this refers to total consumption, not wine consumption per person, which varies greatly between countries (Changes in alcohol consumption since 1990,arranged by country, age and gender). The OIV has also published a list showing consumption per capita in the major wine-drinking countries, as of 2024 (Which countries drink the most wine?).

Current world Population is c. 8,000 million (World population), and is increasing continuously, as shown in this next graph. So, world per capita wine consumption is now decreasing pretty precipitously. This is not a time to be a wine producer.

The current decline in wine consumption has been attributed to a number of things, for example:

• Troubled times for wine in 2023: Global production and consumption shrinking
• Global wine consumption falls to six-decade low as inflation bites
• Gen Z is drinking as much as older generations, new data shows
• Wine demand is down. What happens now? 
• U.S. drinking rate at new low as alcohol concerns surge

Alcohol drink preferences in Iceland have been changing

It is fair knowledge that the Nordic countries except for Denmark (i.e. Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) have their retail liquor stores owned by their governments, and I have written about this before (Why are there wine monopolies in Scandinavia?). In practice, this does not necessarily mean that alcohol sales are restricted, or that there is a poor selection, but simply that the government makes some of the profit (Why is wine often cheaper in Sweden than elsewhere?).

Iceland has in the distant past had a bad situation — indeed, there was apparently once a time when workers were paid (at least partly) in alcohol. Moreover, it is not exactly in a geographical location suitable for vineyards, and it does have miserable weather a lot of the time. So, spirits have historically been the cultural norm, as it was throughout northern Europe . The government has been trying to get things changed, as discussed below.

First, we can look at the relevant data from Statistics Iceland (Alcohol consumption decreased by 4% between years).

You will note from the graph that per capita alcohol consumption has plateaued in recent years, with beer consumption now being equal to wine + spirits combined. However, wine consumption has been greater than spirits since 2003. Good!

Note that there was actually a beer prohibition from 1915 to 1989, and that beer consumption did not pass spirits until 1995. The advertised Icelandic motto is now: Drink good beer with good friends. The government ban had originally been placed on all alcohol, but wine was legalized in 1922; and in 1935 all alcoholic beverages with >2.25% alcohol were legalized, except beer (Wikipedia). Note that the ban on beer had as much to do with independence (from Denmark, which was associated with a preference for beer consumption) as temperance (Why Iceland banned beer; Why beer was once illegal in Iceland).

I was recently in Iceland, and can report on the situation first hand. First, the draft beer is very nice, the local lamb is good, and the fresh fish is excellent. The scenery is superb, which is why there are >2 million tourists per year compared to less than 400,000 locals.

The local liquor stores that I checked out (Vínbúðin = The Wine Shop) were quite small, and had limited selections of wine, which were mostly from western Europe. Indeed, most of the shelves had bottles of Icelandic gin and aquavit. Furthermore, the cheapest US or Australian wines were $US20 for the current vintage, which is hardly cheap. This is apparently because of the taxes (Alcohol tax: Iceland pay the most in Europe).

Finally, I can suggest that vineyards may actually one day appear in Iceland. There are now several absolutely massive glasshouses, growing things that you don't expect, such as tomatoes and bananas (Why the world’s coldest country grows bananas). Their electricity is very cheap, and renewable, coming from geothermal springs (steam), hydro-power (water) and wind-driven generators (Wikipedia), and so they can have a lot of lights on a lot of the time, along with geothermal heaters. For a more naturalistic plan see: How do you grow trees in a treeless land?

Changes in alcohol consumption since 1990 (arranged by country, age and gender)

The non-drinker equivalence (NDE) is one measure of the relationship between alcohol consumption and health. It measures the level of alcohol consumption at which the risk of health loss for a drinker is equivalent to that of a non-drinker. For our purposes here, it can be used as a measure of change in alcohol consumption, if we measure NDE at different points in time.

One publication that does this is:

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020.

It has a giant table that contains the number and proportion of the population consuming in excess of the non-drinker equivalence in 2020, and the percentage change in NDE since 1990. I will look at this percentage here, because it allows us to sub-divide the population and look at the data in various ways.

Data are shown in that table for the whole world plus separately for each of 20 sub-regions, and separately for males and females. There are also three age groups considered: 

• 15–39 years    roughly: Millennials + Generation Z (15–44 years)
• 40–64 years    roughly: Generation X (45–60 years)
• ≥65 years       roughly: Baby Boomers (≥61 years)

Here is my summary of the data from that table. The numbers refer to the percent change in NDE in the 30 years between 1990 and 2020, which for our purposes simply measures the change in alcohol consumption (as a proportion of the population consuming a specified amount of alcohol).

Looking at the Global data (row 1), you will note that there was a much bigger reduction among the two groups of younger people (for both sexes) than among the oldest group, although the latter group also reduced their consumption. So, alcohol consumption has generally been decreasing over the past three decades, and more so among younger people.

If we look at those separate regions that have had a consistent large decrease across all age/gender groups, it includes: 

High–income Asia Pacific; Southern Latin America; Oceania; and Central sub-Saharan Africa.

If, on the other hand, we look at those regions that have had a consistent increase across all groups, there has been:

Central Europe; Andean Latin America; Tropical Latin America; South Asia; and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa.

The biggest increases have been among:

• Tropical Latin America; and Andean Latin America
• Central Europe
• South Asia; and Southeast Asia among males
• Australasia among older people.

Among the youngest people, we have had the biggest reduction among:

High–income North America; and then Eastern Europe; Australasia; and Western Europe.

Among the oldest people, we have had few reductions, and they were mostly small. The biggest increases were among:

Central Europe; Australasia; High–income North America; and Southeast Asia males.

Clearly the world of alcohol consumption has been changing over the past three decades. However, there does not seem to be much consistency among those regions showing similar patterns of change among themselves; so I do not think that I can say much more here. However, it is worth noting that, in a similar manner, per capita consumption in litres of pure alcohol across the 10 markets surveyed by IWSR has fallen by 20% since 2000 (How is the moderation trend evolving?).

Moreover, we do have to accept the fact that Baby Boomers are getting too old to drink alcohol as much as before, or they are (sadly) dying. The subsequent generations do not look like they are taking up the slack (yet?). So, given the patterns noted above for the youngest generation, we might seriously wonder:

Why the wine trade should talk up its entry-level offering.

With older, high-spending, wine-loving consumers leaving the market, here Patrick Schmitt wonders whether the drinks trade should put more emphasis on inexpensive wines for a less affluent, younger generation. Indeed so.

Increasing preference for wine consumption in northern Europe

I have recently looked at: Long-term (mostly negative) trends in Nordic alcohol consumption. In particular, I have looked at current wine sales in some of the Nordic countries, with their government-owned alcohol retail monopolies (they are not big wine producers):

• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland

This week I will show you that their consumption does now focus more on wine rather than the more traditional beer (and spirits). These data come from the Annual Database of National Beverage Consumption Volumes and Expenditures, 1950 to 2015.

This first graph refers to beer intake per person (up to 2015). As you can see, since 2000 beer consumption as a percentage of total alcohol intake per year has been less than 50% and decreasing in the three Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), whereas in Finland (the fourth Nordic country) it has remained fairly flat and just above 50%.

For wine, on the other hand (in the next graph), per person consumption has been increasing since the 1970s, although it took a bit of a blow in Finland in 2000 (the Covid pandemic).

This Finnish phenomenon can be seen in the third graph to be a result of a burst in spirits consumption at that time — apparently the Millennium seriously affected the Finns! Otherwise, Finland and Denmark have had a fairly constant per person spirits consumption for quite some decades, whereas Sweden and Norway have shown a decrease.

In my previous posts I had a look at which wine–producing countries now do well in the Nordic wine retailers, noting that they fit in line with other European countries; that is, the wine producers France, Italy, Spain, and Germany, plus the USA. This changing preference does match their accession to the European Union (EU), with its free trade within a single market (Denmark 1973, Finland 1995, Sweden 1995).

Norway is not a member of the European Union, but is associated with it through the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows it access to the EU‘s single market (Norway–European Union relations). It has contemplated joining the EU several times.

Useful official advice on alcohol and your health (EU brochure)

I have recently produced a series of posts about wine availability and consumption in the Nordic countries, pointing out that it is not actually restricted, as is sometimes claimed. However, various parts of the government in, for example, Sweden do take alcohol consumption really quite seriously, healthwise. The World Health Organization (WHO) would be impressed.

As one example, my local municipal council (region Uppsala) has a web page about health, for locals. As part of this information they produce a brochure on alcohol use, which I think is very informative for everyone. Here, I have provided a translation from the original Swedish text. The original PDF file is available at: Alkohol och din hälsa.

The document is claimed to have been “compiled by specialists in the field of alcohol and health in the Uppsala Region and Uppsala Municipality”. It was last revised in January 2019, although it is still very current. You would be well advised to look through it, for your own edification.

---

Region Uppsala

Alcohol and your health
How do you drink?

Alcohol affects health

Alcohol affects us in different ways. New studies show that no level of alcohol intake is completely risk-free. The risk of health problems increases the more you drink. How the body is affected by alcohol can vary. Even small amounts of alcohol can cause harm to children, adolescents, the elderly, and those with illness or medication. Alcohol should also be avoided during pregnancy, when caring for others, and before surgery.

Drinking alcohol often increases the risk of becoming addicted. Alcohol impairs judgment, thinking ability, and reaction ability. It can increase the risk of harming yourself or others in accidents. Being drunk always involves a risk.

Some examples where alcohol may be important:

• Sleep problems and headaches
• Depression and anxiety
• Reduced fertility
• Lowered immune system
• Poor wound healing
• Cardiovascular diseases
• Diabetes
• Psoriasis and skin problems
• Diseases and problems in the stomach, intestines and liver
• Cancer in the mouth and throat, gastrointestinal tract, breast and liver
• Dementia
• Brittle bones and gout
• In the event of accidents and relationship problems

Benefits of drinking less

You can have better general health and sleep. Your memory and ability to concentrate can improve and you can handle stress more easily. You also reduce your risk of developing various diseases.

Consider your own habits

• When do you drink beer, cider, wine or spirits?
• How often do you drink?
• How much do you drink at one time?
• How are you and others affected when you drink?
• What could you do if you wanted to drink less alcohol?

Risky alcohol use

Risky alcohol use involves drinking alcohol in a way that greatly increases the risk of physical, mental and social problems.

In Sweden, the term “standard glass” is commonly used to calculate how much you drink. A standard glass is the amount of drink that contains 12 grams of pure alcohol:

50 cl beer or cider (2.8–3.5%)
33 cl strong beer, strong cider or alcoholic soft drink (5%)
1 small glass (12 cl) wine (12.5%)
8 cl fortified wine (15–22%)
4 cl spirits, e.g. whiskey

A bottle of wine (75 cl) contains about 6 standard glasses.

Limits for hazardous alcohol consumption

Female: 4 standard drinks or more on the same occasion (for example, during an evening). 10 standard glasses per week (equivalent to just under 2 bottles of wine).

Male: 4 standard glasses or more on the same occasion (for example, during an evening). 10 standard glasses per week (equivalent to just under 2 bottles of wine).

Pregnant: For pregnant women, as well as children and young people, all use of alcohol is considered risky use.

Tips for those who want to drink less

• Write down how much alcohol you drink for a few weeks.
• Think about situations in which you can change your habits.
• Allow at least two days each week to be completely alcohol-free.
• Replace every other glass of alcoholic drink with water and thus halve the amount of alcohol you drink.
• Choose drinks without alcohol or with a lower alcohol content.

Did you know that …

• Alcohol contains a lot of calories, the higher the alcohol content, the more calories in the drink.
• One can of folk beer per day for a year is equivalent to approximately 19 full bottles of hard liquor.

How much do you drink?

Fill in how many standard glasses you drink per day during a week.

To compare different types of alcoholic beverages, use the standard glass measurement. For example, a standard glass is equivalent to:

Support for those who want to change their drinking habits

You can always turn to health care professionals for advice and support. There are prescription drugs that can reduce alcohol cravings. All health care clinics are confidential.

At the Alcohol Line there are counsellors who can provide information and support. Tel. 020-84 44 48 or info@alkohollinjen.se.

 

At alkoholhjalpen.se there are facts, tips and discussion forums. The services are free of charge and you can remain anonymous.

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Brochures like this are part of the increasing pressure on alcohol consumption, in the modern world (after all: Mid-strength wines may win where no-alcohol failed). Indeed, there is explicit pressure for wine labels to have health warnings, similar to those for tobacco packages. Indeed, recently: Alaska introduces cancer warnings to bars and liquor stores. Even the USA officially links alcohol and tobacco, as the United States Department of the Treasury has the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, and the United States Department of Justice has the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Sweden has not yet gone that far!

Long-term (mostly negative) trends in Nordic alcohol consumption

I have recently looked at current wine sales in some of the Nordic countries, with their government-owned alcohol retail monopolies (they are not big wine producers):

• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland

There is one final thing to look at, which is the long-term sales / consumption trends. This can be done using the data compiled by the Nordic Alcohol and Drug Policy Network (NordAN). To quote their website:

NordAN was established in September 2000 as a network of non-governmental, voluntary organisations that all worked to reduce the consumption of alcohol and other drugs, and who supported evidence-based alcohol and drug policy, and who did not receive contributions from the commercial alcohol industry.

They consider their work to be important because:

The Nordic [Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden] and Baltic [Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania] region has been an exciting laboratory for everyone interested in alcohol research and policy. With Nordic countries, we have a long and effective experience with WHO recommended alcohol policies, and with that one of the lowest alcohol consumption and harm rates in Europe.

So, I have reproduced here their graphs for the five Nordic countries, for total alcohol consumption not just wine, per capita. Unfortunately, they do not yet include the data for 2024, and for Iceland and Norway not even for 2023. Still, they do show the general trends since 2010.

Note, first, that the data for Denmark and Norway refer to sales, while the data for Finland, Iceland and Sweden refer to consumption, which is not necessarily quite the same thing.

Norway (in the first graph, above), shows a downward trend in sales from 2010 until 2015 (to 90% of the 2010 level), followed by a plateau until 2019, and a massive spike in 2020—2022, although the sales are now returning to the 2010 level. This peak coincides with the Covid-19 pandemic, of course, which spread rapidly from 2020. Presumably the Norwegians stayed at home a lot more, in a form of voluntary lock-down (cf. Bay Area drinking 42% more alcohol than usual while sheltering in coronavirus pandemic).

Denmark (in the second graph) shows a plateau in sales for most of the time, after a dip in 2012. There is then a spike in 2021, which may be related to that in the Norway data (July 2021 was the summer of the delta Covid variant). Note, also, that Denmark does not have a government-owned retail monopoly on alcohol sales, unlike the other Nordic countries. Apparently, Danish wine imports remained stable in 2024, although there was reportedly an increased concentration on wine producers from the EU (Italy, France and Spain accounted for 65% of Denmark’s total wine import volume, with Portugal and Germany making up another 25%).

Finland (in the third graph) shows a rapidly decreasing trend, so that 2023 is only 75% of the 2010 number. This cannot be good for the suppliers, although it refers to consumption not sales. However, this trend is definitely in line with current World Health Organisation policy (Recent science reports suggesting that wine alcohol is usually safe to drink), although compare with: The WHO is making a mistake about state-owned alcohol retailers.

Iceland (in the next graph) refutes these previous data by showing a rise (of 15%) in consumption from 2010 until 2015, followed by a plateau, with a spike in 2021. Note that the years 2015 and 2021 appear in several of these country patterns.

Sweden (in the fifth graph) has shown a very slow decline (of 15%) in consumption throughout most of the time. There is not much of a pandemic—related rise.

So, with the exception of Iceland, there is a general downward trend here, with apparent Covid-19 spikes to one extent or another. Indeed, as suggested by NordAN, with their relatively low alcohol sales / consumption, the Nordic countries can be worth looking at long-term. Other countries are also reporting drops, of course (eg. Ireland sees 4.5% drop in alcohol consumption), so that the global wine situation has been negative since 2017, as shown in the final graph (from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine, OIV). This is occurring because younger people are not drinking wine to the same extent as their forebears, worldwide (eg. The social role of alcohol is changing).

The relative consistency of each Nordic situation is certainly in distinct contrast to the situation elsewhere, especially in the USA (eg. Inside NYC’s wine retail apocalypse), where the multitude of retailer types yields a multitude of economic situations. Incidentally, The 7 happiest countries to live in apparently include: 1 Finland, 2 Denmark, 4 Iceland, 6 Norway, and 7 Sweden. Mind you, it has also been noted that the Top 10 most expensive countries to live in include: 2 Norway, 3 Iceland, and 5 Denmark. (NB: Iceland and Norway are not members of the European Union, but are members of the European Economic Area).

Finns do not like wine in their alcohol–retailer monopoly

I have recently reported that both Swedes (What countries are best represented in Sweden’s wine retailer monopoly?) and Norwegians (How well do wine-producing countries do in Norway’s wine retailer monopoly?) both actually do quite well, in terms of the availability of products in their respective alcohol–retailer monopolies. Here, I report that in some ways Finns do both better and worse.

The Finnish government-owned alcohol retailer is called Alko (= Alcohol). It was founded in 1932, and is the only company allowed to sell beverages with an alcohol content >8% in Finland. (NB. wine is typically 12%—14.5% ABV; regular beers are around 5—6% ABV, while stronger craft beers can have an ABV of 6—10%) There are 368 Alko stores and 143 order pick-up points, which is not too bad for a population 5.6 million people, with c. 80% 18 years or older.

So, first, note that normal retail shops can sell full-strength beers and light wines, unlike in Sweden or Norway (where they can sell only light beers). Second, note that there are somewhat more stores than in Norway, in spite of very similar population structures. So, the Finns do quite well, compared to other Nordic countries (I have not yet discussed Denmark in these posts).

The Alko web site indicates that the number of separate items is as shown in the first table. Note that the number is considerably less than in Norway (= 36,148), which is the obvious comparison. This is due, at least partly, to the fewer beers, as expected. However, all of the country numbers are considerably less, as well. Note that the USA does not do too well (see below). France does 50% better than Italy, which does 50% better than Spain.

The Alko web page has versions in Finnish, Swedish and English. The second one is due to the large number of alcohol-buying tourists, as there are daily tourist boats across the Baltic, from Stockholm to Helsinki.

The Alko web site says:
“Alko is a different kind of store. We are legally required to sell alcoholic beverages in a way that reduces the harmful effects of alcohol. Our role has remained the same since 1932 ... Alko's mission is to sell alcohol responsibly and to serve both our customers and Finland’s welfare society as best we can. Our extensive selection brings the whole world to our customers’ fingertips.”

If we take a look specifically at wine, then the Alko collection looks like the second table (click to enlarge). Note that each row simply lists the countries in decreasing order, stopping when it gets to the USA.

These numbers are terrible when compared to those for Norway, being about one quarter in all cases. Finns apparently are not much interested in vinous beverages. Perhaps they prefer low-alcohol versions, which are not necessarily in the Alko stores? Certainly, full-strength wine is not a major contributor to the Finnish economy (unlike its position in the USA: Wine is a major American economic engine).

Anyway, Finland supplies 1,131 alcohol products in the stores, which include: 496 distilled (44%), 340 beer (30%), 100 mixed drinks (9%), 91 fortified (8%), and 34 cider (3%). The large number of distilled beverages include: 166 Liqueur & Bitters, 161 Gin & Other Spirits, 127 Vodka & Spirits, 35 Whisky, and 7 Rum. Also, the 375 USA products include: 175 Red wine (47%), 78 distilled (21%), 70 white wine (19%), and 39 beer (10%).

So, in terms of wine availability, the Finns do not appear to do as well as either the Norwegians or the Swedes, in spite of all three having their government officially owning the alcohol retailer. Iceland also has a government-owned alcohol retailer, Vínbúðin (= The Wine Shop), which is apparently quite strict (Do strict alcohol policies really work?). The remaining Nordic country, Denmark, does not even have an alcohol monopoly system (see: Danish wine imports remained stable in 2024). Interestingly, Greenland and the Faroe Islands, which are self-governing entities within the state of Denmark, do have such retail monopolies.

Finally, it is worth noting that: The Finnish retail alcohol market is being liberalised. Having a government-owned retail store is contrary to official European Union policy, and Finland is finally starting to follow this guideline (it joined the EU in 1995). Sweden was granted an exception for Systembolaget (when it also joined in 1995), but has not yet made any moves to change this. Indeed, the changed Finnish law is creating international tension (How easing of monopoly laws could shift Nordic alcohol markets).

In contrast to this, there is also this sort of attitude: WHO/Europe highlights Nordic alcohol monopolies as a comprehensive model for reducing alcohol consumption and harm. Alcohol consumption is recorded as being lower in the Nordic countries, and this is sometimes attributed to the psychological effect of the government monopoly ownership. This is, indeed, one possible part of Nordic societal attitudes.

One other thing that you may not know about Finland:

• Finland was the first nation in the world to give all adult citizens full suffrage, in other words the right to vote and to run for office, in 1906. Previously, all countries had given this right only to males (and sometimes not even then!).

Recent patterns in world vineyard area, wine production and wine consumption

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) recently released its annual world industry summary: State of the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2024. There are always parts of it that seem of particular interest, and I will look at three of these here.

Let’s start with recent changes in the world’s vineyard surface area, which are shown in the first graph (taken from the report).

As you can see, this has been decreasing for quite some time, from a high in 2003. It is currently c. 90% of its recent high. (Note that the OIV graphs never have zero as their bottom axis, which looks somewhat misleading to me.) As has been repeatedly noted in the wine-industry literature, vineyard area is much larger than can be supported by the current wine consumption, and so the decrease in area will presumably continue for quite some time yet.

Obviously, wine production is related to vineyard surface area. However, production has not shown a similar continuous decline, as illustrated in the next graph (taken from the report).

The graph shows that, since 2003, global wine production has varied up and down around an average of c. 270 mhl (million hectoliters). This sounds like a classic case of over-production (the same amount of wine coming from a decreasing area). This has lead to a dramatic decrease in production over the past couple of years, so that 2024 production was only c. 75% of the 2018 peak (and that peak was the same as for 2003).

Note also that the 2022 production was c. 90% of the 2003 high, as would be expected from the decreasing vineyard surface area; so, we need to look for another cause of the decline since 2022. The most obvious place to look for this would be wine consumption, as illustrated in the next graph (taken from the report).

This shows that the recent high-point for consumption was during the decade from 2007 to 2017, when it varied around 245 mhl (million hectoliters). Since then, it has been all downhill, so that the 2024 level was c. 90% of the 2017 high.

More importantly, there has been a dramatic decrease in consumption since 2021. So, the decrease by the producers has clearly been a response to the behaviour of the consumers. Notably, it has been reported that global wine consumption is back to 1961 levels, which should be a wake-up call for the industry.

We can also consider which countries have been contributing to these patterns. Here, 51% of the world vineyard area lies in just five countries: Spain, France, China, Italy and Turkey (in decreasing order). So, these are the ones that will be most affected by the decline in the wine industry.

The pattern for production as reported by the OIV excludes juices and musts, and so wine production does not follow the vineyard area pattern. Here, 58% of the world wine production comes from just four countries: Italy, France, Spain and the USA (in decreasing order).

Wine consumption, on the other hand, is somewhat different. Here, 51% of wine consumption occurs in five countries: the USA, France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom. This pattern is obviously related to population size. However, France and Italy do produce a lot of wine because their people drink a lot of it. The same cannot be said of the USA, Germany and the UK, which need to import a lot of the stuff.

This importation fact is currently riling the President of the USA, who wants to tax the imported booze even more than it has been in the past (How American alcohol importers are adapting to the tariff rollercoaster). Indeed, in the above graph we can look at US wine consumption over the past century or so (from: the Wine Institute). There was a notable dip during the second half of the 1980s, but otherwise it has continued upwards until 2022 (and 2023 also continued downwards — not shown).

Apparently, the President’s idea is that the USA can produce all of its own wine needs. This seems unlikely, given recent patterns in grape crush in California, as shown in the next graph (from: Lightest crop in 20 years). The issue here is whether the crush should be increased or decreased for the good of the California wine business (How bad is wine’s oversupply problem?).

On a different note, China is an interesting part of the global wine industry, and potentially an important one given its population size (2025: 17% of the world total). Here, both production and consumption have decreased from a peak in c. 2012–2013, as shown in the next graph (from: What’s happened to the wine market in China?).

Indeed, China’s share of world wine production by volume was 5.5% in 2012 but was 0.8% in 2022; and its share of world wine consumption was 7.5% in 2012 but was 2.4% in 2022. These are pretty serious drops, which the wine industry needs to take note of. Moreover, wine’s share of China’s alcohol consumption was 4.6% in 2012 but was only 1.5% in 2022 (grain-based drinks dominate, including beer).

Clearly, the wine industry will need to look to other populous countries, like India (Which wine regions are finding success in India, and why?). The USA apparently need not look anywhere, just at the moment (How America ruined its enviable position in global drinks culture).

So, there you have it. Things are on the downward path in the world wine industry. This is not news to you, but now I have put some numbers on it.