tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-13928664267450216992024-03-18T15:23:18.932+01:00The Wine GourdLooking at data in the world of wineDavid Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.comBlogger415125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-40748852652028776002024-03-18T00:30:00.225+01:002024-03-18T00:30:00.133+01:00Is AI in the wine industry all that it is cracked up to be?Well, of course not. After all, the people advocating Artificial Intelligence (AI) are often the ones selling it; so they are wildly enthusiastic. Moreover, it is probably not the biggest issue currently facing the wine industry (for examples, see: <a href="https://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/california-isnt-on-track-to-meet-its-climate-change-mandates-and-a-new-a/" target="_blank">California isn’t on track to meet its climate change mandates</a>; or <a href="https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2024/01/22/two-studies-wmc-explores-demographics-and-engagement" target="_blank">Wine Market Council explores demographics and engagement</a>). However, there are clearly uses for AI, or no-one would be pursuing it. So, let’s look at some of the suggestions for the wine industry.<br /><br /><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_intelligence" target="_blank">AI</a> involves the use of computers to perform tasks previously done by humans, but without immediate direct human control (sometimes called Machine Learning). So, using a spreadsheet to calculate the farm budget does not count as AI, but having a computer run your farm tractor does. The tractor’s computer program was, originally, written by a human being, of course, but after that the computer takes control of the tractor.<br /><br />Given the very broad nature of the wine industry (agriculture, production, distribution, wholesale, retailing), there are lots of ways AI can get involved. So, let’s look at some of the AI involvements that have been suggested (see also: <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/events-meininger/how-artificial-intelligence-will-change-world-wine-vineyard-wine-glass" target="_blank">How artificial intelligence will change the world of wine, from vineyard to wine glass</a>). A complementary idea is the Internet of Things (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_of_things" target="_blank">IoT</a>), which refers to devices with sensors, processing ability, software and other technologies that connect and exchange data with devices and systems over the internet (or other communications networks) — it is usually a valuable complement to AI.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAf4h9qp-DOXT77qvrJsKqXLhyphenhyphenE_M027gU_V4G1TAlnPMyrl1LiX8LAaZ1I2Nhhv7aliCVdlgSenXuTirauFdx-B8-QVGTVK-Rck8PXE_6Fdg86rPocWyL1VCaxI1hrxHweLMAbxjgnbRqgIdvJB0gxLL2-JlkPW5faKsnWR-hnG_vUY6BPViNf8rJJbLq/s993/1710252052743-2943663350.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="AI and IoT." border="0" data-original-height="924" data-original-width="993" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAf4h9qp-DOXT77qvrJsKqXLhyphenhyphenE_M027gU_V4G1TAlnPMyrl1LiX8LAaZ1I2Nhhv7aliCVdlgSenXuTirauFdx-B8-QVGTVK-Rck8PXE_6Fdg86rPocWyL1VCaxI1hrxHweLMAbxjgnbRqgIdvJB0gxLL2-JlkPW5faKsnWR-hnG_vUY6BPViNf8rJJbLq/w200-h186/1710252052743-2943663350.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="200" /></a></div><br />We’ll start with what is perceived to be the current situation and the expectations. Simone Loose, head of the Institute of Wine & Beverage at Geisenheim University, has said (<a href="https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/32513/Prowein_2024:_Wine_industry_needs_to_professionalise_to_survive.html" target="_blank">Wine industry needs to professionalise to survive</a>):<br /><blockquote>The wine industry is years behind other sectors in terms of technological advancement. Two-thirds of producers aren’t even using Excel, which means they’re not analysing their commercial business. This is a big problem ... How are wine businesses going to reach the consumer? If they’re not profitable as a business, how are they going to pay for marketing strategies? The ones who will survive are those who are the most professional.</blockquote>She has described how AI can help boost professional productivity, particularly when it comes to smaller producers who have yet to properly commercialize or strategize engagement with customers. Sadly, AI is currently cost-prohibitive across the supply chain for most people, except for the larger producers (small producers and Big Wine live in completely different universes!). Yet, she contends, utilizing AI in more focused areas could help make a big difference to smaller producers’ sales.<br /><br />So, it has been reported that vine-growers and winemakers are, indeed, incorporating technology into their production process, as the industry faces challenges with consumer demands and the climate crisis (<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-iot-technology-make-wine-sustainable-vineyard-practices-2024-3?r=US&IR=T" target="_blank">Vineyards embrace AI and IoT for better, tastier wine</a>). We have often done this sort of thing in the past (eg. planting entire vineyards with a selected preferred grape-vine clone), but not always to our ultimate benefit in the modern world of changing climates (<a href="https://vintnerproject.com/wine/massal-selection/" target="_blank">Why producers are reviving this ancient planting system</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifKS9v1pVLVKPSBTTEo_dZ3jQw-1aEb94KuWVM2QlUjua9CdK4MsScryjB4yG1Wr53pJnbCHgbLuBWz2cQo_HikwG9ktEgnepM6p16oQZD8D5P-0s4vFpOGJarnkQBAV_9duSHc3m78Edyxr3XNjw90ScIJ43M3mR2Ll3fSL4quNoXNe-YoNLHVLUtr_nu/s1232/Monarch-MK-V-tractor-electrico-1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Monarch MK-V tractor" border="0" data-original-height="618" data-original-width="1232" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifKS9v1pVLVKPSBTTEo_dZ3jQw-1aEb94KuWVM2QlUjua9CdK4MsScryjB4yG1Wr53pJnbCHgbLuBWz2cQo_HikwG9ktEgnepM6p16oQZD8D5P-0s4vFpOGJarnkQBAV_9duSHc3m78Edyxr3XNjw90ScIJ43M3mR2Ll3fSL4quNoXNe-YoNLHVLUtr_nu/w400-h201/Monarch-MK-V-tractor-electrico-1.gif" title="CLick to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />So, I guess that we should start with the vineyard. First, here we encounter the IoT, where sensors can be installed across the vineyard. These allow viticulturists to visualize data about the relevant environmental parameters, like temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and wind speed. These parameters matter because grape-vines are perennial plants, so that each one lives for many years in the same spot, accumulating the effect of its local environment. * There is also the idea of using AI-powered robots to control vineyard pests without chemicals (<a href="https://www.winespectator.com/articles/scientists-try-ai-robots-against-insects-threatening-vineyards" target="_blank">Robots in the vineyards: could AI be a green winemaking solution?</a>), by naturally disrupting the mating of those pests.<br /><br />Similarly, it is reported that Monarch Tractor, for example, which is the maker of the MK-V, the world’s first fully electric, driver-optional (autonomous) smart tractor (pictured above), is expanding globally (<a href="https://www.winebusiness.com/news/article/284514" target="_blank">Monarch tractor expansion across the US and Europe</a>). This follows on from the original appearance of electric tractors themselves (<a href="https://www.winebusiness.com/news/article/280735" target="_blank">First Monarch electric tractor arrives at Oregon vineyard</a>). Moreover, using AI-robots for harvesting (grapes, apples, strawberries, etc) is actively being worked on — it seems to be only a matter of time (it was all the rage in 2020, but you don’t hear quite so much about it these days).<br /><br />In the winery, we also encounter IoT sensors, which, when inside fermentation tanks, can help detect leaks, monitor the fermentation activity, and show temperature trends. Computers already control things like press cycles, fermentation temperatures, and other processes. Furthermore, AI-powered tools can be used to help wine-makers find optimal wine blends, where AI and chemistry combine to create wine-blending recipes.<br /><br />When it comes to bottles, it has been reported (<a href="https://www.the-buyer.net/insight/greencroft-bottling-ready-to-offer-most-sustainable-packaging-available/" target="_blank">Greencroft Bottling: ready to offer most sustainable packaging possible</a>) that the latest artificial intelligence technology has been integrated into some of the systems (for example, AI drives the inspection equipment on the labeling machines).<br /><br />Of course, as mentioned above, the cost of the grapes, the wine-making, packaging, shipping, additional warehousing and transportation, and then the multiple layers of distribution, all need to be budgeted. This has long been where computers are very useful, and where forecasting can thus benefit from AI. This may not have much to do with wine-making, since grapes are seldom more than 10% of the total cost (<a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2014/06/gross-margins-breaking-down-wine-prices" target="_blank">Gross margins: breaking down the price of a bottle of wine</a>).<br /><br />Retailing is a whole other thing. As an example, linguistic tools such as ChatGPT have the capability to
convert information on a producer’s inventory and brand into marketing
or e-commerce strategies. Conversely, one of the most interesting discussions of the negative effects of AI is: <a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2024/03/the-smartphones-role-in-wines-decline" target="_blank">The smartphone’s role in wine's decline</a>.<br /><br />When it comes to recommending wine to the wine-buying public, there are, indeed, AI-powered wine recommendation tools, which are reported to increase sales (<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/PRNewswire/New+Data+Shows+DRINKS+AI-Powered+Personalized+Wine+Recommendations+Deliver+Surge+in+Online+Wine+Sales/22815974.html" target="_blank">New data shows DRINKS AI-powered personalized wine recommendations deliver surge in online wine sales</a>). Indeed, this prompts us to ask the basic question: <a href="https://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/can-machines-taste-wine" target="_blank">Can machines taste wine?</a> The answer is currently “yes and no”; but it does prompt us to start <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/rethinking-role-wine-professionals-priscilla-hennekam-mezpc/" target="_blank">Rethinking the role of wine professionals</a>.<br /><br />The bottom line, at the moment, is that electronic drinks recommenders are based on data from the established critics / commentators (<a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/wine/article/ai-chowbot-bar-drink-18705182.php" target="_blank">Is AI like Chowbot coming for my wine critic job?</a>). So, humans are still needed at this level. Indeed, it can be argued that <a href="https://www.insidehook.com/wine/saving-wine-industry-terroir" target="_blank">To Save the wine industry, we’ll need a human intervention</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj-JDoR2zrOi0WkTd3QXm6A3fjEN-eGK7lFV7M7tk57iNdUXBiZezt5YPrVQFin8f_vU3L56O4c_apolVRn-DeBljbEOJFK-6ZIW7AoIanTZdVIUJVsR9BxtEF0b0j_R5OyG8jaOB1sH7cwpne9t8U3VtpgBlVqQ_N13TgQmr2D23YdQ6S83WKejTrUK7c/s1145/artificial-intelligence.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="699" data-original-width="1145" height="122" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhj-JDoR2zrOi0WkTd3QXm6A3fjEN-eGK7lFV7M7tk57iNdUXBiZezt5YPrVQFin8f_vU3L56O4c_apolVRn-DeBljbEOJFK-6ZIW7AoIanTZdVIUJVsR9BxtEF0b0j_R5OyG8jaOB1sH7cwpne9t8U3VtpgBlVqQ_N13TgQmr2D23YdQ6S83WKejTrUK7c/w200-h122/artificial-intelligence.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br /><b>Conclusion</b><br /><br />So, AI and the IoT should be helpers not replacers — we must benefit from them not rely on them. They do not allow us to work less (or not work at all), but mean that we will now work differently. AI is a tool that can make things better, but which can also be abused.<br /><br />AI seems to be here to stay (<a href="https://ciso2ciso.com/eu-parliament-approves-the-artificial-intelligence-act-source-www-databreachtoday-com/" target="_blank">EU Parliament approves the Artificial Intelligence Act</a>), so we need to get the hang of it, and its impact. However, I am not sure that it is yet giving most of us anything that we either want or need. All it is doing is making things different.<br /><br />I taught for years at several different universities, in both Australia and Sweden, and it is not sarcasm to note that Human Intelligence varies greatly among individuals. One of the great hopes of Artificial Intelligence is to try to level the playing field, so that we all get subjected to the same level of intelligence around us. Does it yet match that goal?<br /><br />At the moment, my car’s computer system makes a lot of suggestions for what my driving should look like, at any given moment. However, I still do the steering, and press the accelerator and brake pedals (the clutch is automatic!). I am not sure how safe I would feel if the computer was doing the latter tasks, as well; but I and the drivers around me may actually be a lot safer if it was. **<br /><br />Mind you, it was recently reported that two Indonesian airline pilots both fell asleep simultaneously on a flight (<a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/a-plane-flew-for-28-minutes-with-both-pilots-asleep/ar-BB1jKTay" target="_blank">A plane flew for 28 minutes with both pilots asleep</a>), thus relying entirely on the autopilot. They drifted off course a bit, but landed safely at their destination after they both woke up. This is AI at its best!<br /><br /><hr /><br />* The downside of being perennial is that grape-growers are loathe to pull them out (USA: <a href="https://www.winebusiness.com/news/article/284711" target="_blank">Growers are pulling out grapevines — but not fast enough</a>; Australia: <a href="https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/food-and-drink/red-wine-australia-griffith-grapes-cheap-b2512945.html" target="_blank">Vineyards rush to sell millions of litres of wine at cut price</a>).<br /><br />** However, much of modern car technology is very expensive to maintain (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5kMMe6axcII" target="_blank">The insanely high cost of tech failures in newer cars</a>); and it also feels very much like an invasion of privacy, given how much of our personal behavior the newer cars record and permanently store (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb3jGLXw5og" target="_blank">Mr Orwell, your car has arrived</a>).<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-47406294711630897692024-03-11T00:30:00.198+01:002024-03-11T18:59:17.700+01:00The demise of the Australian wine industry? Part 2In last week’s post, I provided an introduction to my previous discussions of the Australian wine industry (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/03/the-demise-of-australian-wine-industry.html" target="_blank">The demise of the Australian wine industry? Part 1</a>). Please check out that post before proceeding here, if you need context. Here, I provide a comprehensive summary of the current situation.<br /><br />The main issue in this week’s post is that the Australian wine industry is repeatedly presented in the media as currently being in a dire position. This situation is, in many ways, real; but the entire world’s wine industry has a somewhat similar problem, so there is not much that is actually unique about Australia. Furthermore, the Australian position is often attributed particularly to a trade spat with China (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/arts-culture/food-cooking/how-chinese-tariffs-soured-australias-wine-industry-6c04dbd1" target="_blank">How Chinese tariffs soured Australia’s wine industry</a>); and it is true that this spat exists, but resolving it may not be the panacea that the Australians seem to be expecting.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVqA6g169NjLAdf2_ZUtc3XmKXfuwCRFqOeBTPgt6zUZE2VCkeN1Qk4ZsXQxqaq9yGtHO4tQfXg4_LxoJ4AuefLylfQCIzqPVJC-cf13fd5IjJXcSDMEcb9yc9ImwepvESr3EBhJ4RVz3gUZyezKRVanKeW74qdVefAtRAoCRUUXHCeRxn3RK6gk5cCiWv/s1560/PSI_Infographic_2022-23.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The current situation for Australian wine" border="0" data-original-height="1560" data-original-width="1109" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjVqA6g169NjLAdf2_ZUtc3XmKXfuwCRFqOeBTPgt6zUZE2VCkeN1Qk4ZsXQxqaq9yGtHO4tQfXg4_LxoJ4AuefLylfQCIzqPVJC-cf13fd5IjJXcSDMEcb9yc9ImwepvESr3EBhJ4RVz3gUZyezKRVanKeW74qdVefAtRAoCRUUXHCeRxn3RK6gk5cCiWv/w227-h320/PSI_Infographic_2022-23.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="227" /></a></div><br />The essential problem is an over-supply of wine from within Australia itself. This is shown in the above infographic, from the <a href="https://www.wineaustralia.com/market-insights/australian-wine-production-sales-and-inventory" target="_blank">Australian wine: Production, Sales and Inventory Report</a> (by Wine Australia). Australian wine production is predicated upon exporting a large proportion of the product — as shown in the graphs at the very bottom of this post, consumption plateaued in 2010 but production did not. *<br /><br /> This origins of this situation have been discussed by several people. For example, according to Pia Piggott, an Associate Analyst at Rabobank, there are three factors behind this (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights-wine/australias-wine-swimming-pool" target="_blank">Australia’s wine swimming pool</a>):<ol style="text-align: left;"><li>The 218% tariff imposed on Australian wine by China in 2021, widely seen as retaliation for Australian criticisms (a government minister suggested that China should be formally investigated about the origin of the SARS-CoV2 virus). Until then, China had been one of Australia’s most significant export markets, with sales reaching A$1.2 billion in the year to January 2020.</li><li>The logistical bottlenecks caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. As shipping prices increased four- and then five-fold, ships began to bypass Australia in favour of shorter, higher-value routes. Many Australian wineries could not fulfill export orders, and lost their customers, leaving the Australians with too much wine.</li><li>Australia has recently had record production. For example, the 2021 vintage was the largest vintage on record — a 36% year-on-year increase.</li></ol>To visualize this situation simply, one useful measure is the national stock-to-sales ratio, which is a measure of how many years’ worth of sales is held in inventory. This is shown in the next graph (from <a href="https://www.drinkstrade.com.au/australias-wine-inventory-at-historic-high-despite-steady-sales-and-reduced-production" target="_blank">Australia’s wine inventory at historic high despite steady sales and reduced production</a>). Currently, the value is 2.57 for red wines, which is 45 per cent above the 10-year average of 1.77. The latter figure equates to having just under 2 years’ worth of sales in stock, so that the current level is >2.5 years’ worth of stock. The situation for whites is somewhat better than for reds, with the stock-to-sales ratio at 1.49 (much closer to its long-term average of 1.35).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzMeVAOLvxdtID-gc3XnRCR9XbGFJoprW43d6coYAq_3W56U6hLhYUO3VZG3UsIP4mIEWta8gGRW_Got5oVV1-8TTPlS1-oe_nWkjQBrbI9LSaKzEqNZzX8EUzz34g0yyJxkUnPRIax9v1J6G9lrOpTrMhsEGWzRmoCsfZyV8qGPz5vsI51kp4JhCDl1ht/s927/blobid1_1700460889081-1024x512.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine inventory" border="0" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="927" height="162" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhzMeVAOLvxdtID-gc3XnRCR9XbGFJoprW43d6coYAq_3W56U6hLhYUO3VZG3UsIP4mIEWta8gGRW_Got5oVV1-8TTPlS1-oe_nWkjQBrbI9LSaKzEqNZzX8EUzz34g0yyJxkUnPRIax9v1J6G9lrOpTrMhsEGWzRmoCsfZyV8qGPz5vsI51kp4JhCDl1ht/w320-h162/blobid1_1700460889081-1024x512.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />So, the current situation has been developing for quite some time. Nevertheless, the Australian wine industry does urgently need to deal with how to get rid of its wine lake. The obvious way is exports. Sadly, this is precisely what is <i><b>not</b></i> working, as shown in the next infographic, from the <i>Wine Australia Export Report</i> (see: <a href="https://winetitles.com.au/export-results-reflect-challenging-global-trends/" target="_blank">Export results reflect challenging global trends</a>). Two countries dominate the picture. The United Kingdom takes 36% of the total export volume and 19% of total export value, while the USA takes 22% of volume and 19% of value; and both of these figures are currently down considerably. ** All of the lower price points have decreased in export sales, although >$10 has increased (ie. Australian wine exports are moving up-market, by default!).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHQIrL3UNdPqw1tlwROPIiuNEm2-i2lD35yIMKBio5Ai7UFB3QtbkVK7-SKV7JQ4q2uALNfiNdE3uxz5VTzWWwSOmRC_w_A89EiGtLXniHTIx0mzSVfH10K3zc2Tnt4TMxgFyvepmcPRavCBGEXBITl43L49JPhq-D5GsHVeekjE1bXeGlxaFvX2XN9lCw/s981/ExportReport_infographic_MATDec2023.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The current wine export situation" border="0" data-original-height="681" data-original-width="981" height="222" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgHQIrL3UNdPqw1tlwROPIiuNEm2-i2lD35yIMKBio5Ai7UFB3QtbkVK7-SKV7JQ4q2uALNfiNdE3uxz5VTzWWwSOmRC_w_A89EiGtLXniHTIx0mzSVfH10K3zc2Tnt4TMxgFyvepmcPRavCBGEXBITl43L49JPhq-D5GsHVeekjE1bXeGlxaFvX2XN9lCw/w320-h222/ExportReport_infographic_MATDec2023.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />Needless to say, the Australian grape farmers are unhappy with the situation. For example, the farmers have argued that they are being paid below the cost of production for their grapes, and in some cases they have chosen to dump their grapes or let them rot on the vines, rather than be paid below cost prices for harvesting them (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2024-01-31/wine-grape-grower-protest-riverland-renmark-low-prices-harvest/103409686" target="_blank">Riverland wine grape growers drive tractors through Renmark in protest against low prices</a>). Their key demands of the government include making wine grape prices more sustainable, and improving support from the industry and government for growers. To this end, the <a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2024-03-06/vine-planting-moratorium-grape-farmers-riverland-crisis-sa/103512534" target="_blank">Riverland grape growers call for moratorium on vine plantings to ease red wine oversupply crisis</a>; and the government has just now appointed a task force (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-11/government-taskforce-to-investigate-wine-industry/103573074" target="_blank">Wine taskforce to spotlight glut as industry reaches crisis point</a>).<br /><br />So, it seems that the Australian wine industry is set to shrink, considerably. The most recent report from Australia’s Agricultural and Resource Economics Bureau (ABARES) predicts that, by the 2027—28 harvest, Australian wine-grape production will have fallen to 1.2 million tonnes, down from a peak of over 2 million in 2021 (<a href="https://www.drinkstrade.com.au/forecasting-wine-current-storm-clouds-unlikely-to-budge" target="_blank">Forecasting wine: current storm clouds unlikely to budge</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYYAXdBtti5I1PiTSszX4TjvBt33YvLSBO0ofA0WqQMjxwQIKKkU9suhlzlOZmRXDNDJpc5POzxOd2oz6YD-R6dxMOW3cbDhKfvrYszq_7QrmccatC0ldZv1EbGBgwUQy9aWcljSCA817hfazTCbwgXqzoxeAZgqyjZ7Ahw9jpICfkYBfm2lJAGpO6rG-A/s1280/best.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian vineyards" border="0" data-original-height="568" data-original-width="1280" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYYAXdBtti5I1PiTSszX4TjvBt33YvLSBO0ofA0WqQMjxwQIKKkU9suhlzlOZmRXDNDJpc5POzxOd2oz6YD-R6dxMOW3cbDhKfvrYszq_7QrmccatC0ldZv1EbGBgwUQy9aWcljSCA817hfazTCbwgXqzoxeAZgqyjZ7Ahw9jpICfkYBfm2lJAGpO6rG-A/w320-h142/best.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />However, the issue seems to me to be that Australia’s situation is simply part of a general downturn in the wine industry, globally. For example, the number of regular wine drinkers in Australia is falling overall, and the under-34 segment has shown the sharpest decrease, which is part of a global trend (<a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2024/01/wine-leaves-a-bad-taste-for-younger-drinkers" target="_blank">Wine leaves a bad taste for younger drinkers</a>). Similar problems have recently been discussed for France, the modern “home” of the wine industry (<a href="https://vinepair.com/articles/wine-world-expands-away-from-france/" target="_blank">France no longer defines global wine culture. Can it adapt?</a>), and their farmer reactions have also been similar (<a href="https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/emergency-e80m-promised-to-french-winegrowers-amid-farmer-protests-522109/" target="_blank">‘Emergency’ €80m promised to French winegrowers amid farmer protests</a>). The USA is no better off (<a href="https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2024/03/05/more-bad-news-sipsource-report-pulls-no-punches" target="_blank">More bad news: Sipsource report pulls no punches</a>), and neither is the UK (<a href="https://www.decanter.com/wine-news/uk-wine-sales-decreased-by-10-million-bottles-in-the-build-up-to-christmas-524226/" target="_blank">UK wine sales decreased by 10 million bottles in the build-up to Christmas</a>). Indeed, the US growers have gone one better than the Australians (<a href="https://www.agalert.com/california-ag-news/archives/february-6-2024/growers-scrap-vineyards-as-market-dims/" target="_blank">Growers scrap vineyards as market dims</a>).<br /><br />Over-supply is therefore actually a global problem. This overall topic has been discussed elsewhere, so I will not repeat it here:<ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://wineeconomist.com/2023/12/05/history/" target="_blank">Wine, globalization, and the end of history</a></li><li><a href="https://vinepair.com/articles/wine-oversupply-explanation/" target="_blank">Why are so many wine regions dealing with oversupply?</a></li><li><a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/01/can-the-wine-industrys-crisis-be-stopped/" target="_blank">Can the wine industry’s crisis be stopped?</a></li></ul><br />The bottom line here is that the anticipated return of the Chinese
market as a destination for Australian wine (<a href="https://theshout.com.au/china-wine-tariff-result-by-end-of-march/" target="_blank">China wine tariff result by end of March</a>) may not be the hoped-for panacea (<a href="https://www.esmmagazine.com/drinks/australian-wine-makers-bet-on-expected-china-reopening-with-big-shipments-259691" target="_blank">Australian wine makers bet on expected China reopening with big shipments</a>). After all, there
has been a downward trend in Chinese wine consumption since 2018, as
shown in the next graph (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/news/chinese-wine-drinkers-unlikely-solve-australias-export-woes" target="_blank">Chinese wine drinkers — unlikely to solve
Australia's export woes</a>); and wine imports have followed suit (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/news/chinese-wine-market-falls-cliff">Chinese wine market falls off cliff</a>). A return of the China export market will
therefore presumably not be a great boon. ***<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVkHL25CCcJSg4D1rr3fhl1lu-4lfHe-nsRNfqkFuSEhS7EYnvLWioT2tsq6JM1mOSoHLQwyBpotKCij9A2omVXBVZd_vZqe5CqYBJ2WqiBJKz3GK-y9yY6l4dGbHONlHcFoiucxl4X1URqr7wsLGk4bgADm5pifQqJwkZAy99cVEnKOcTbUoSZ86Ee1u6/s872/ChinesWineConsumption.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="WIne consumption in China through time" border="0" data-original-height="619" data-original-width="872" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVkHL25CCcJSg4D1rr3fhl1lu-4lfHe-nsRNfqkFuSEhS7EYnvLWioT2tsq6JM1mOSoHLQwyBpotKCij9A2omVXBVZd_vZqe5CqYBJ2WqiBJKz3GK-y9yY6l4dGbHONlHcFoiucxl4X1URqr7wsLGk4bgADm5pifQqJwkZAy99cVEnKOcTbUoSZ86Ee1u6/w320-h227/ChinesWineConsumption.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />So, to summarize, we can safely say that the Australian wine industry is facing a crisis (<a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/01/its-all-change-for-australian-wine-in-2024/" target="_blank">It’s all change for Australian wine in 2024</a>):<br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Revenues in the sector, which directly employs more than 18,000 people, have declined at a combined annal rate of -6.3% over the past five years, and stood at an estimated AU$6.3 billion at the end of last year.</li><li>The AU$1.3 billion-per-year China export market collapsed when Beijing slapped tariffs on Australian wine in late 2020; and while China is expected to soon remove — or at least modify — those impositions, the industry faces a much-changed global condition.</li><li>Globally, consumers have moved away from commodity bottles in favour of premium priced labels, and Wine Australia calculates that the industry has surplus stocks of more than 2 million wine bottles.</li><li>At the same time, home market demand has been declining for the past 4 years in Australia, and is forecast to reach 445 million litres this year, compared with a 10-year average of 480 million litres. Prices have increased only marginally since 2019.</li></ol>This does not necessarily prophecy the demise of that industry, but things clearly have to change, sooner rather than later (<a href="https://olivers-wines.com.au/can-thor-save-australian-wine/" target="_blank">Can Thor save Australian Wine?</a>). The industry either needs to shrink, or some pretty big new markets need to be found.<br /><br /><hr /><br />* Australian wine consumption plateaued in 2010, and has even dropped recently; on the other hand, production has varied dramatically year by year, at about twice the level of consumption (the graphs here are from: <a href="https://www.oiv.int/sites/default/files/documents/OIV-FOCUS-2023_Evolution_of_the_world_wine_production_and_consumption_by_colour_4.pdf" target="_blank">Focus OIV 2023: Evolution of world wine production and consumption by colour</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXW3nw06CiAbBji85qC-8QYcJMvJWDHj1jL15O0CWBU0bs0oG-gWrZmxRnQct9YD2aVGSzw0cO9TiofzQv0ZMbz4EtLULGlyn0YcmtwIzkJvE1j7RnzeY04u7aJzI9zgPLj-t58yOhwiH66nsrL73oHIlKX92nREvPI-nnJd_-cjjgF01l_oEX1EFxsJj4/s1713/AusProduction.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine production through time" border="0" data-original-height="1242" data-original-width="1713" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXW3nw06CiAbBji85qC-8QYcJMvJWDHj1jL15O0CWBU0bs0oG-gWrZmxRnQct9YD2aVGSzw0cO9TiofzQv0ZMbz4EtLULGlyn0YcmtwIzkJvE1j7RnzeY04u7aJzI9zgPLj-t58yOhwiH66nsrL73oHIlKX92nREvPI-nnJd_-cjjgF01l_oEX1EFxsJj4/w320-h232/AusProduction.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmUPv9A8a9JQuEaH628_TTsxZ9_AOziBOSiyanpiKdaNw4nebKX3umriYp_D2vZiXWuR6oI3H5-zd3O2CyqaRA4MdGmqyPeR3kATC1WGiL4rNBoPf4h0V1-Fream_BTv59cRd3KrrtBqkLQBMfP6CClNuMFz78bj-GZShz166MnsLJCbEnxdG3fc-o7tg9/s1706/AusConsumption.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian wine consumption through time" border="0" data-original-height="1237" data-original-width="1706" height="232" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgmUPv9A8a9JQuEaH628_TTsxZ9_AOziBOSiyanpiKdaNw4nebKX3umriYp_D2vZiXWuR6oI3H5-zd3O2CyqaRA4MdGmqyPeR3kATC1WGiL4rNBoPf4h0V1-Fream_BTv59cRd3KrrtBqkLQBMfP6CClNuMFz78bj-GZShz166MnsLJCbEnxdG3fc-o7tg9/w320-h232/AusConsumption.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />** It is worth noting here that Australian wine exports to the USA have been declining since 2007, as shown by this linked <a href="https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=432006882515762&set=a.232507572465695" target="_blank">AAWE graph</a>.<br /><br />*** So, the Spaniards should not be so keen, either (<a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/01/can-spanish-wine-producers-spread-their-wings-in-china/" target="_blank">Can Spanish wine producers spread their wings in China?</a>).<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-32996636384549227742024-03-04T00:30:00.154+01:002024-03-04T00:30:00.126+01:00The demise of the Australian wine industry? Part 1I grew up in Australia, and got interested in wine in the late 1970s (see: <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2020/12/some-personal-anecdotes.html" target="_blank">Some personal anecdotes</a>). The wine industry had boomed in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and there was a vibrant industry for me to be interested in, along with a lot of other people. My local bottle shop (or liquor store / off-licence) started doing free tastings on Thursday evenings (late-night shopping night), and this grew into special organized (paid) tastings on weekends. There were also plenty of vineyards to visit (also for free!), as shown on this map.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4HFKd6ef0O0-fZ_jYzc3NH682dWzoLjwebnGvWLKlj6FIziulVF5t0fjeMYsKb-sWx67YsupwJhcrTuqeCHNKyTVu31Dis_pQVXBgYL2JQKwdUFqTcbl_16XlPuE8b1bCJoU8-4XbwtYlj8Q6MsRZsvU_iO6Lx-JLld5Vgl2Of6VwhUXISzNCo1IiJC7m/s760/Australia-wine-map.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Click to enlarge" border="0" data-original-height="585" data-original-width="760" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4HFKd6ef0O0-fZ_jYzc3NH682dWzoLjwebnGvWLKlj6FIziulVF5t0fjeMYsKb-sWx67YsupwJhcrTuqeCHNKyTVu31Dis_pQVXBgYL2JQKwdUFqTcbl_16XlPuE8b1bCJoU8-4XbwtYlj8Q6MsRZsvU_iO6Lx-JLld5Vgl2Of6VwhUXISzNCo1IiJC7m/w320-h246/Australia-wine-map.png" title="Map of Australian wine regions" width="320" /></a></div><br />So, it is very sad for me to hear about the current troubled state of the Australian wine industry — a country that is currently being disturbed by the global wine-industry downturn. It has not got to the end yet, but globally things are clearly going downhill in many ways, for the wine industry, as shown in this first graph.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAUMKGijjO2ANiCGh2zLNGBn5VAl92GlOP_RlmqAQ_d4HuaxouS4o8BB711YfUdGp1mO2i_LY7jMJxHd1ETtSDxZe9hYkbBPxQLTrimN2yIfNPZZcWC4E1ItkYF66lEA-rZbjW42Js8KsvMkw7kM_p69L8GF-u9zCKlaSpeSd3rV9EXoHoF5ap8RZMH4pm/s1261/WorldConsumption.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Click to enlarge" border="0" data-original-height="964" data-original-width="1261" height="245" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjAUMKGijjO2ANiCGh2zLNGBn5VAl92GlOP_RlmqAQ_d4HuaxouS4o8BB711YfUdGp1mO2i_LY7jMJxHd1ETtSDxZe9hYkbBPxQLTrimN2yIfNPZZcWC4E1ItkYF66lEA-rZbjW42Js8KsvMkw7kM_p69L8GF-u9zCKlaSpeSd3rV9EXoHoF5ap8RZMH4pm/w320-h245/WorldConsumption.gif" title="World alcohol consumption" width="320" /></a></div><br />However, the Australian wine industry has had its ups and downs before, as I have written about in previous posts, and as shown in the next graph (of Australian wine exports). At the end of this post is a categorized list of my previous posts about Australia. After this week’s look at the past, next week, in Part 2, I will summarize the current state of affairs, according to the media.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOkVWPZX0xTSjCA17EH_89snoTWFSFIh6uc4LiynKIpfDUkOQtLxgSy9VNu8e-Fwtv4P6vDbYbOdjXP3tNLsayZFmJa3KkolI7ON-7W-KSWRFqCHGjIApQ1Vjsy1QYWNlDuVr7b6aNAmcr5PXFjQZScCLigHxqWrZpzaF-RRA4i-ZNngdWNXGnREJ0juoJ/s1448/Graph0.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Click to enlarge" border="0" data-original-height="910" data-original-width="1448" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjOkVWPZX0xTSjCA17EH_89snoTWFSFIh6uc4LiynKIpfDUkOQtLxgSy9VNu8e-Fwtv4P6vDbYbOdjXP3tNLsayZFmJa3KkolI7ON-7W-KSWRFqCHGjIApQ1Vjsy1QYWNlDuVr7b6aNAmcr5PXFjQZScCLigHxqWrZpzaF-RRA4i-ZNngdWNXGnREJ0juoJ/w320-h201/Graph0.gif" title="Value of Australian wine exports" width="320" /></a></div><br />As you can see, the previous export trend has generally been upwards, exactly as you would expect from any producer gradually establishing itself on the global stage. However, there were occasional multiple-year downturns along the way. In particular, there was a distinct downturn from 2005—2013, occasioned by a saturation of the world market for cheap Australian wine (as discussed in my post: <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-rise-rise-fall-and-rise-of.html" target="_blank">The rise, rise, fall and rise of Australian wine</a>). Since then, the Australian focus has moved more towards the middle of the global market, with much better financial results.<br /><br />Well, the upturn in export value over the past decade (ie. since 2013) has recently turned into a downturn again, with obvious consequences for the Australian wine industry as a whole. I will discuss this next week. Predictions of the demise are premature, but problems clearly exist.<br /><br /><hr /><br />Previous posts, in time order (within groups):<br /><br /><b>Vineyards</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/09/why-lionize-winemakers-but-not.html" target="_blank">Why lionize winemakers but not viticulturists?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/11/welcome-to-wine-regions-of-australia.html" target="_blank">Welcome to the wine regions of Australia</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2019/06/mapping-entire-continents-vineyards.html" target="_blank">Mapping an entire continent's vineyards</a></li></ul><b>Wineries</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/12/classification-of-cellaring-wines-of.html" target="_blank">Classification of the cellaring wines of Australia</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2021/09/the-real-top-wineries-of-australia.html" target="_blank">The Real top wineries of Australia</a></li></ul><b>Companies</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/07/yellow-tail-and-casella-wines.html" target="_blank">Yellow Tail and Casella Wines</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/09/keeping-family-wine-business-is-often.html" target="_blank">Keeping the family wine business is often hard</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2019/03/australias-biggest-wine-companies.html" target="_blank">Australia's biggest wine companies</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-beer-companies-should-never-buy.html" target="_blank">Why beer companies should never buy wine companies</a></li></ul><b>Wine price</b><br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2021/01/exponential-increase-in-wine-prices.html" target="_blank">Exponential increase in wine prices (1980-2000)</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2021/01/wine-prices-2000-2020.html" target="_blank">Wine prices 2000-2020</a></li></ul><b>Wines / marketing</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/07/what-are-australias-most-collected-wines.html" target="_blank">What are Australia's most collected wines?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2019/04/younger-us-consumers-prefer.html" target="_blank">Younger U.S. consumers prefer Australasian wine</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2019/04/introducing-responsible-alcohol.html" target="_blank">Introducing the "Responsible Alcohol Marketing Scheme"</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2021/05/australia-versus-new-zealand-wine.html" target="_blank">Australia versus New Zealand wine exports</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2021/06/australia-and-new-zealand-wine.html" target="_blank">Australia and New Zealand wine comparisons</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2022/03/how-did-australian-beer-slobs-become.html" target="_blank">How did Australian beer slobs become wine drinkers?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/12/this-is-how-australians-market-wine.html" target="_blank">This is how Australians market wine (you may be surprised)</a></li></ul><b>Exports</b><br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/09/getting-question-right.html" target="_blank">Getting the question right</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/04/the-rise-rise-fall-and-rise-of.html" target="_blank">The rise, rise, fall and rise of Australian wine</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2021/02/australian-bulk-wine-exports-are.html" target="_blank">Australian bulk wine exports are economically inefficient</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2022/11/can-you-tell-difference-between.html" target="_blank">Can you tell the difference between Australia and New Zealand (wine)?</a></li></ul>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-41336408095626763702024-02-26T00:30:00.154+01:002024-02-28T18:10:51.881+01:00Try blending your non-alcohol wines, if you want to make them more drinkableI have recently written a few posts about wine and its affect on our health, such as:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/01/who-started-current-who-completely.html" target="_blank">Who started the current WHO completely negative attitude towards alcohol?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/01/has-who-got-it-wrong-with-its-new-zero.html" target="_blank">Has WHO got it wrong with its new zero-alcohol policy? Probably.</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/02/wine-affects-us-differently-from-other.html" target="_blank">Wine affects us differently from other forms of alcohol</a></li></ul>None of these posts finds a great deal of issue with consuming wine, provided that it is done responsibly. Intoxication is <b><i>not</i></b> the point of the exercise. Indeed, it has been argued that <a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/02/patrick-schmitt-mw-we-dont-drink-wine-just-for-intoxication/" target="_blank">We don’t drink wine just for intoxication</a> (Patrick Schmitt), because “looking at only the public health and intoxication issues of alcohol misses one of the main reasons why we drink it: nothing can match wine’s ability to enhance both food and mood.”<br /><br />Nevertheless, there seems to be a growing market for people who want to replace their (proper) wine for a non-alcohol version. So, it is a topic worth looking at in this blog. Here is a graph showing us what some (self-selected) people did during last month, to avoid consuming alcohol. Note that about one-fifth of them chose a non-alcohol beverage.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqX0tgmMCo_9DOjApAjVKVH1P6guMVCN5Qf7UzjZRyhc2VbcTthtO8OfFvJbYsDxf2bYKB1qnFSn04lZ-yU5NiU2kex_3tll3GeW4dXliRHQupivqpbWaS52AXdvcMS-a97JMbXZXBfZr5HnKBHmw7jVEjdaVsmipFVa3dVChyphenhyphenfWzCkoLYv8CBmt__lt2C/s1541/DryJanuary.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Dry January participants" border="0" data-original-height="547" data-original-width="1541" height="143" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhqX0tgmMCo_9DOjApAjVKVH1P6guMVCN5Qf7UzjZRyhc2VbcTthtO8OfFvJbYsDxf2bYKB1qnFSn04lZ-yU5NiU2kex_3tll3GeW4dXliRHQupivqpbWaS52AXdvcMS-a97JMbXZXBfZr5HnKBHmw7jVEjdaVsmipFVa3dVChyphenhyphenfWzCkoLYv8CBmt__lt2C/w400-h143/DryJanuary.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />I will start by saying that it seems to me to be very easy to argue that “no-alcohol wine” is a contradiction in terms — wine, by definition, has alcohol in it, just as does beer, and scotch whiskey. That is, dictionary definitions usually specify that wine is the alcoholic product of fermented grapes (or other fruits, although these are often termed cider).<br /><br />Indeed, I am not alone in thinking that <a href="https://www.therealreview.com/2024/02/06/zero-alcohol-wine-is-not-wine/" target="_blank">Zero alcohol wine is not wine</a> (Huon Hooke):<br /><blockquote>I have been diligently tasting the zero alcohol ‘wines’ that breathless PR people send me, and those that I buy off the supermarket shelves out of my own curiosity, but I have yet to find a red wine that tastes anything like wine. I have tasted one or two whites that had some appeal ... but on the whole they are seriously disappointing. They are no more an alcohol-free substitute for wine than any other soft drink or fruit juice.<br /><br />In one tasting of 16 samples, I noted the residual sugar content of these beverages ranged between 25 and 45 grams per litre. And some confessed they contained ‘flavourings’ and ‘thickeners’. Sugar is evidently used in a vain effort to inject palate weight and flavour.</blockquote>It is worth noting that non-alcohol wines are first made as normal (alcohol-containing) wines, and the alcohol is then removed, often by a more-or-less aggressive method of de-alcoholisation, such as centrifugal separation (eg. spinning cone) or reverse osmosis (see <a href="https://winemag.co.za/wine/opinion/jamie-goode-the-challenges-of-making-low-no-alcohol-wine/" target="_blank">The challenges of making low/no alcohol wine</a>). The result is then “adjusted” in order to make it drinkable, and hence the additives cited above. People are still working on gentler methods (eg. vacuum distillation), in an attempt to preserve some more of the key aroma and flavour compounds (eg. <a href="https://www.the-buyer.net/tasting/wine/oddbird-alcohol-free-wines-no-lo-kermode/" target="_blank">How Oddbird alcohol-free wines are revolutionising the No/Lo market</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_isJycGExHLTBwvp2kWK3k6g0ymwTuqiJJwZF1jCivrZkoILsM7YMdkAO3ImJab4qB5921Amxmuit6-owKC9f-AH9Yn33xOZN_Q40yZMHfTUy_Dg0-45jXv85SZFw0_CxolIfXd1XGuDDz_lF_Qw6k7ojZ7yI6ZfELblXbwqIuooeqlTJZQ1HC_ssHKDV/s3401/tasting.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The wine tasting" border="0" data-original-height="1958" data-original-width="3401" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj_isJycGExHLTBwvp2kWK3k6g0ymwTuqiJJwZF1jCivrZkoILsM7YMdkAO3ImJab4qB5921Amxmuit6-owKC9f-AH9Yn33xOZN_Q40yZMHfTUy_Dg0-45jXv85SZFw0_CxolIfXd1XGuDDz_lF_Qw6k7ojZ7yI6ZfELblXbwqIuooeqlTJZQ1HC_ssHKDV/w400-h230/tasting.gif" title="The wine tasting" width="400" /></a></div><br />So, I decided to check this out for myself, and recently got together with a few relatives and neighbors to try some wines: 4 non-alcohol whites, 4 non-alcohol reds, 2 non-alcohol sparkling, and a couple of alcohol-containing wines for comparison. * This isn't a wine review, so I won’t give any tasting notes, but I can note the overall results.<br /><br />The wines were all fairly inexpensive ($5.60 to $10.30 per standard bottle), but they cost enough to potentially taste like wine. Here they are listed by increasing price within each group:<br /><br /><b>Non-alcohol whites</b><br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Hardy’s Zero Chardonnay 2022 </li><li>Leitz Eins Zwei Zero Riesling 2022 </li><li>Edenvale Pinot Gris </li><li>Zeno Alcohol-Liberated White 20222</li></ol><b>Alcohol white</b><br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Hardy’s Nottage Hill Chardonnay 2022 (bag-in-box)</li></ol><b>Non-alcohol reds</b><br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Rawson’s Retreat Cabernet Sauvignon </li><li>Oddbird Domaine de la Prade (Merlot & Shiraz)</li><li>Edenvale Premium Reserve Pinot Noir </li><li>Oddbird Grenache Shiraz Mouvèdre (Carignan) </li></ol><b>Alcohol red</b><br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Rawson’s Retreat Cabernet Sauvignon 2021</li></ol><b>Non-alcohol sparkling</b><br /><ol style="text-align: left;"><li>Oddbird Veneto Spumante Rosé</li><li>Thomson & Scott Noughty Sparkling Chardonnay </li></ol>To put it bluntly, of the non-alcohol wines only the sparkling ones tasted like anything other than fruit juice. Sweetness was a recurring theme, as also suggested by Huon Hooke above. The Oddbird wines did not taste any better, in spite of their hype. The alcohol-containing wines tasted perfectly nice.<br /><br />Since I was unimpressed, I tried some experiments. First, I mixed the alcohol and non-alcohol versions of the same producer/type (ie. the two Hardy’s whites, and the two Rawson’s Retreat reds). The results tasted like a low-alcohol wine, which was certainly an improvement (eg. it reduced the sweetness). I then mixed the other three non-alcohol wines of each type together (ie. the three whites, and the three reds). The resulting complexity increased greatly, and they were no longer just fruit juice. As suggested by this post’s title, this is what I would do if I was to make a habit of drinking non-alcohol wines — buy several and blend them.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZCCpcSYq52nrNASUGTrf48ZDVBdSXZdUP4fkeh2jgipMdhBEQSd2cX36Gwv6OcKtUoSn6yIGFCgvsMaiqfksGMXYoto0BywsUmr3_KoDPePyp9K1AeCHXLiHW65Eg5EzomdXsnnqf8C_YzqSuwRc0B0kvVSJ84YkDGOh69jGwJsH6PNTjivDcEKUu-iHr/s747/3736.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="747" data-original-width="566" height="186" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZCCpcSYq52nrNASUGTrf48ZDVBdSXZdUP4fkeh2jgipMdhBEQSd2cX36Gwv6OcKtUoSn6yIGFCgvsMaiqfksGMXYoto0BywsUmr3_KoDPePyp9K1AeCHXLiHW65Eg5EzomdXsnnqf8C_YzqSuwRc0B0kvVSJ84YkDGOh69jGwJsH6PNTjivDcEKUu-iHr/w151-h200/3736.jpg" width="151" /></a></div><br />So, do yourself a favor — if you want to replace your wine at any time, do it with some other drink, as wine really does need alcohol in order to be wine. If you want to reduce your alcohol intake, then choose wines that are made naturally lower in alcohol, in the first place (eg. originating in a cool climate).<br /><br />Looking at the bigger picture, alcohol is not the only cultural thing with potential negative side effects. After all, there's inherent risk in almost all human activities. For example, cars can have a very bad effect on people (as can trains), because many people die every week, and their exhausts create air pollution. However, we have not banned cars, but we have instead tried to reduce their negative effects. The same logic applies to alcohol, which can have both positive and negative effects (eg. alcoholism). So, alcohol can exist in the same world with people, provided that it is used responsibly.<br /><br />Part of the issue here seems to be younger people, who are the people most influenced by the anti-alcohol media (<a href="https://www.svb.com/trends-insights/reports/wine-report/" target="_blank">SVB State of the US Wine Industry Report 2024</a>). It has been noted (<a href="https://www.winebusiness.com/news/article/282465" target="_blank">Results of Consumer Survey on U.S. Wine Market Trends and Challenges</a>) that:<br /><blockquote>The reported participation in “Dry January” or “Sober October” in 2023 was highest among respondents in the ages 21–39 segment, with over half of the cohort reporting participation by cutting back their wine consumption in those months or abstaining from wine altogether. Nearly two-thirds of the same age group indicated they intend to participate in one or both of these events in 2024.</blockquote>If you want to read further on the subject, then here are some useful links:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2024/02/nolo-wines-final-frontier" rel="nofollow">Nolo: Wine's final frontier</a></li><li><a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/culture/millennial-and-genz-how-to-reach-young-wine-drinkers/" target="_blank">13 things Millennial and Gen Z wine pros say will reach young drinkers</a></li><li><a href="https://drinksretailingnews.co.uk/who-is-drinking-low-no-analysis/" target="_blank">Who is drinking low/no? – Analysis</a></li><li><a href="https://drinksretailingnews.co.uk/christine-parkinson-on-the-future-of-low-and-no-alcohol-wine-interview/" target="_blank">Christine Parkinson on the future of low and no-alcohol wine – Interview</a></li><li><a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2024/01/why-zero-alcohol-fizz-will-continue-to-grow/" target="_blank">The remarkable rise of zero-alcohol fizz</a></li><li><a href="https://bevalcinsights.com/category-on-the-rise-non-alcoholic-wine-beer-and-spirits/" target="_blank">BevAlc Insights’ 2024 non-alcoholic wine, beer, and spirits category forecast</a></li><li><a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/8-reasons-get-excited-about-no-alcohol-category" target="_blank">8 reasons to get excited about the no-alcohol category</a></li><li><a href="https://www.euronews.com/health/2024/02/05/dry-january-where-in-europe-is-drinking-alcohol-getting-worse-and-which-countries-have-cut" target="_blank">Europe's heaviest drinkers: These are the countries that are drinking more alcohol than before</a></li></ul><br /><hr /><br />* Some of them were chosen from among the following lists:<br /><ol><li><a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/handpicked/best-non-alcoholic-wines-guide/" target="_blank">The 23 best non-alcoholic wines</a></li><li><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/wirecutter/reviews/best-nonalcoholic-wines/" target="_blank">The best nonalcoholic wines</a></li><li><a href="https://www.liquor.com/best-non-alcoholic-wines-5088704" target="_blank">The 10 best non-alcoholic wines</a></li></ol>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-56584812127586299792024-02-19T00:30:00.129+01:002024-02-19T10:10:15.031+01:00How on earth are we supposed to use “glasses” to control alcohol intake?I have written recently about wine intake and the effect of the alcohol on us (eg. last week’s post: <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-effect-of-red-wine-is-different.html" target="_blank">The effect of red wine is different from white</a>). One aspect of this topic has been recommendations for the maximum alcohol intake per day or week, for any given adult person. This intake is often expressed in “standard glasses” (eg. one glass per day on average). This is meant solely to be an approximation to actual intake, of course. As a guide, 1 Standard Drink is usually taken as being roughly equal to 12 ounces (350 ml) of beer, 5 ounces (150 ml) of table wine, and 1.5 ounces (45 ml) of 80-proof liquor.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW_AkE1nuH8F1kHFRhn2yiNkDcgw3P5ER9QRfhEoNOpK7tQPiIBWL-Wgl0os2OC2TreH0ne0BRVXCJ7w6kOM7rISJMCwyuuYrev9LxEgyu4Z0Efa-DFt6SypNib-AO6oJ1CCYvufk1IO6XEL_YuvUHq7WcHm0uf0yKBdCSwPkc2aUgoUkdpU5mu4p2TkLL/s200/vir_email_crop.jpg" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="35" data-original-width="200" height="35" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiW_AkE1nuH8F1kHFRhn2yiNkDcgw3P5ER9QRfhEoNOpK7tQPiIBWL-Wgl0os2OC2TreH0ne0BRVXCJ7w6kOM7rISJMCwyuuYrev9LxEgyu4Z0Efa-DFt6SypNib-AO6oJ1CCYvufk1IO6XEL_YuvUHq7WcHm0uf0yKBdCSwPkc2aUgoUkdpU5mu4p2TkLL/w200-h35/vir_email_crop.jpg" width="200" /></a></div><br />There are three possible issues with using this approximation, in practice, for wine drinkers. The first is the variation in alcohol content of the wines of the world, which can vary from c.8% to c.16% (ABV). * Clearly, the latter wines involve the consumption of twice as much as alcohol as do the first ones, if we go by number of glasses. It is assumed, I guess, that in practice a standard glass has a standard percent alcohol, say 11—13% (<a href="https://www.realsimple.com/holidays-entertaining/entertaining/food-drink/alcohol-content-wine" target="_blank">Here's how much alcohol is in wine, from lowest to highest</a>).<br /><br />This issue has been discussed by the general media (<a href="https://www.sfgate.com/wine/article/small-changes-in-wine-alcohols-can-make-a-big-2336133.php" target="_blank">Alcohol levels can make a big difference</a>). In particular, it has been noted that we all differ in the rate at which our liver breaks down the alcohol we have consumed, and that this is also more problematic for females, on average — this means that the actual amount of alcohol does, indeed, matter.<br /><br />The second possible issue is the size of the glasses that you are using. For example, it is easy to mis-judge the amount of fluid in larger glasses compared to smaller ones. The third possible issue is the shape of the glasses. That is, it is easy to mis-judge the amount of fluid in glasses of some shapes compared to others.<br /><br />I have written about wine glasses a couple of times before:<br /><ul><li><a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/01/what-do-wine-glasses-and-hamburgers.html" target="_blank">What do wine glasses and hamburgers have in common?</a></li><li><a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2022/11/how-do-so-called-alternative-wine.html" target="_blank">How do so-called alternative wine packagings compare?</a></li></ul>However, this is worth re-visiting, given the current state of discussions about health and wine.<br /><br />So, let’s take a look at some wine glasses. Here is a selection for you. As suggested by the figure legend, these glasses are different in both size and shape, but they all contain the same amount of red wine. Does it <b><i>look</i></b> like it to you?<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis4EZxGmxdvi0qQ6nPKzbw0I5q9ipUo3uoQzNsQo2dbm3CTFxHKUYKpAVXjxxN5Mrgvjgp1OC-Hxd78UR8PYwDBIubow7hQQO9QebRung1h4_-mGTZLr8TWAW8vrMfXEOZbhHT_SEeMSuh7x2qu5YSBcm94cH7Df43GKdZfx4XzNBKIvZ9o3g79EILfWWB/s984/5oz_wine_glasses.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="What 5 ounces looks like in different glasses" border="0" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="984" height="354" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEis4EZxGmxdvi0qQ6nPKzbw0I5q9ipUo3uoQzNsQo2dbm3CTFxHKUYKpAVXjxxN5Mrgvjgp1OC-Hxd78UR8PYwDBIubow7hQQO9QebRung1h4_-mGTZLr8TWAW8vrMfXEOZbhHT_SEeMSuh7x2qu5YSBcm94cH7Df43GKdZfx4XzNBKIvZ9o3g79EILfWWB/w400-h354/5oz_wine_glasses.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />Clearly, half-filling most of these glasses would drastically mis-estimate the amount of wine contained. In particular, glasses often hold more fluid than we think. It is commonly reported that drinkers under-estimate the amount of alcohol they consume, thinking that a standard drink is of greater volume than it actually is, which is called the “over-sizing effect”.<br /><br />We do, of course, need personally to take into account the shape and size of the serving vessel, when we try to judge the amount of wine being consumed (as shown above). This is not a trivial suggestion. For example, an experiment in 21 pubs, bars and restaurants in England (Impact on wine sales of removing the largest serving size by the glass. <a href="https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004313" target="_blank">PLOS Medicine</a> 21(1): e1004313) has reported that:<br /><blockquote>Removing the largest serving size of wine by the glass from those available reduced the volume of wine sold. This promising intervention for decreasing alcohol consumption across populations merits consideration as part of alcohol licensing regulations.</blockquote>In other words, we really do mis-judge our own wine consumption when we try to base it on the number of glasses that we have consumed. In particular, it is reported that: <a href="https://academic.oup.com/alcalc/article/52/4/516/3814265?login=false" target="_blank">Risky drinkers underestimate their own alcohol consumption</a>. (Note that, in the extreme, the Riedel “Sommelier” Burgundy glass is famous for holding a full 750 ml bottle!)<br /><br />This topic has also been discussed in the general media (<a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB117797544301787472?ns=prod/accounts-wsj" target="_blank">The accidental binge drinker: how much we really pour</a>). It has been suggested that drinkers should actually count each glass as being two servings, not one, when drinking out. At home, you can keep track of the bottle contents, not the number of glasses (although, in contradiction, see: <a href="https://www.sfchronicle.com/food/wine/article/one-liter-bottles-18667365.php" target="_blank">Extra-large wine bottles are having their big moment</a>). Just to confuse things, U.S. restaurants can vary a lot in how much they give you (<a href="https://nypost.com/2022/06/23/youre-not-crazy-wine-pours-are-shrinking/" target="_blank">You're not crazy, wine pours at restaurants are shrinking</a>).<br /><br />Other online reports are listed at The Stealth Syndromes Project: <a href="https://stealthsyndromes.com/?p=3749" target="_blank">Sources, under-reporting of alcohol consumption</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuXftOgdTnt7ca7PTl7F5RsN7Ud-lxr4hK0pHq4BzW0AIIDVkps8H5PBv9D_ElihGLzbUoPKsZgWTJDS71oZSuS_ARsmTTzqQwg4Bjf8U1L7jJzax7qK7NjMhUw-Hdg53qcN8ZRVqKRH2-zBRs1Ps5o5wf7caMmmamfY8NBCVxbAmMBT8tB-SjU-lre8yW/s200/341ad747f774fce33c90b3dc456fbc77fab5cd4ac4aa0646036964ddb01af41b.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="200" data-original-width="161" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuXftOgdTnt7ca7PTl7F5RsN7Ud-lxr4hK0pHq4BzW0AIIDVkps8H5PBv9D_ElihGLzbUoPKsZgWTJDS71oZSuS_ARsmTTzqQwg4Bjf8U1L7jJzax7qK7NjMhUw-Hdg53qcN8ZRVqKRH2-zBRs1Ps5o5wf7caMmmamfY8NBCVxbAmMBT8tB-SjU-lre8yW/s1600/341ad747f774fce33c90b3dc456fbc77fab5cd4ac4aa0646036964ddb01af41b.gif" width="161" /></a></div><br />We also need to behave responsibly, of course, since alcohol does not mix well with many human activities, driving being the most obvious one. In my lifetime, I have been subject to the following restrictions on my blood alcohol content (BAC) while (allegedly) in control of a motorized vehicle:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>0.08 (back when I was a teenager in Australia)</li><li>0.05 (currently in Australia — government slogan: “Under oh-5 or under arrest”)</li><li>0.02 (currently in Sweden).</li></ul>For a person of my weight, these roughly correspond to 3, 2 and 1 Standard Drinks, respectively. Now all I have to do is get my estimation technique right!<br /><br /><hr /><br />* Less than this is Low Alcohol Wine, and greater than this is Fortified Wine.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-69049837251268518832024-02-12T00:30:00.207+01:002024-02-12T14:03:45.849+01:00The effect of red wine is different from white: did you know that?Last week, I discussed the fact that <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/02/wine-affects-us-differently-from-other.html" target="_blank">Wine affects us differently from other forms of alcohol</a> consumption, which seems to me to be rather an important point for the wine industry to broadcast, in the face of current neo-prohibitionist attempts to eliminate all alcohol consumption (just like a century ago in the USA). So, we would be remiss to ignore it.<br /><br />Well, this week I will discuss the various reports which note that the personal effect of red wine is different from that of white wine, and better. As you may suspect, it is chemicals in the red skins that make all the difference. *<br /><br />This idea should not actually come as a surprise to you. After all, there has long been the idea of <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_paradox" target="_blank">The French Paradox</a>, which suggests that the French have lower levels of heart disease than (for example) Americans because they drink red wine. Well, it is quite likely to be true — so, read on.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK9P1c2C07_Fp2qHG3Mi1IblTM1_RFiO3NQz_vzUmmBj2YXBgPVc3lFF19hnlotJZhbrFYvugZtJXbxzllp1JzQeFckPJBCNymW3l8EEokdTmxKwFyV8KIC357-yG1gQ0ZeY-KPKibzPwZej5eyNtMXQKr-lxA-BR5cI0sy8UioDM8UAzqSokkfTp8Dpy2/s1108/french-paradox-definition-504919814.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="French Paradox" border="0" data-original-height="853" data-original-width="1108" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhK9P1c2C07_Fp2qHG3Mi1IblTM1_RFiO3NQz_vzUmmBj2YXBgPVc3lFF19hnlotJZhbrFYvugZtJXbxzllp1JzQeFckPJBCNymW3l8EEokdTmxKwFyV8KIC357-yG1gQ0ZeY-KPKibzPwZej5eyNtMXQKr-lxA-BR5cI0sy8UioDM8UAzqSokkfTp8Dpy2/w320-h246/french-paradox-definition-504919814.gif" title="https://winefolly.com/lifestyle/french-paradox-diet/" width="320" /></a></div><br />The most relevant scientific publication relating to this topic is this review article:<br /><blockquote>Lukas Snopek, Jiri Mlcek, Lenka Sochorova, Mojmir Baron, Irena Hlavacova, Tunde Jurikova, Rene Kizek, Eva Sedlackova, and Jiri Sochor. 2018. Contribution of red wine consumption to human health protection. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6099584/" target="_blank">Molecules</a>. J23(7): 1684.<br /><br />Wine consumption has been popular worldwide for many centuries. Based on in vitro and in vivo studies, a certain amount of everyday wine consumption may prevent various chronic diseases. This is due, in part, to the presence and amount of important antioxidants in red wine, and, therefore, research has focused on them. Wine polyphenols, especially resveratrol, anthocyanins, and catechins, are the most effective wine antioxidants. Resveratrol is active in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases by neutralizing free oxygen radicals and reactive nitrogenous radicals; it penetrates the blood-brain barrier and, thus, protects the brain and nerve cells. It also reduces platelet aggregation and so counteracts the formation of blood clots or thrombi. The main aim of this review is to summarize the current findings about the positive influence of wine consumption on human organ function, chronic diseases, and the reduction of damage to the cardiovascular system.</blockquote>Ultimately, these authors conclude that drinking red wine in moderation has positive links with:<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Cardiovascular diseases</li><li>Atherosclerosis</li><li>Hypertension</li><li>Certain types of cancer</li><li>Type 2 diabetes</li></ul>This article has been expanded upon in the general medical literature, notably by this one from Medical News Today, which adds information:<br /><blockquote><a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/265635" target="_blank">Is red wine good for you?</a><br /><br />Red wine contains powerful antioxidants, and many sources claim that drinking red wine may be good for health. However, drinking too much red wine may cause problems. This article explores the benefits and risks of drinking red wine, including the safe amount to drink for males, females, and different age groups.</blockquote>It adds other possible beneficial associations of resveratrol, including:<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Blood pressure</li><li>Brain damage after stroke</li><li>Vision loss</li><li>Liver disease</li></ul><p>There is another general summary article in Very Well Health: <a href="https://www.verywellhealth.com/can-wine-protect-you-from-having-a-stroke-3145900" target="_blank">Can wine protect you from having a stroke?</a> So, there are at least nine ways that red wine can help you, medically.<br /><br />Interestingly, the benefits of resveratrol first made it into the Romanian news, quoting Dr. Vlad Ciurea:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.dcmedical.ro/bautura-alcoolica-ce-previne-avc-ul-vinul-rosu_647168.html" target="_blank">Băutura alcoolică ce previne AVC-ul. Vlad Ciurea: Creierului îi place. Desface vasele cerebrale</a><br /><br /><a href="https://ziare.com/alcool/vin-rosu-bautura-alcoolica-creier-vase-de-sange-1844415" target="_blank">Singura băutură alcoolică pe placul creierului: “Previne AVC și atacul de cord”</a><br /><br />From there, it made its way into the English-language news:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/the-only-alcoholic-drink-that-pleases-the-brain-can-prevent-stroke/ar-AA1mgw4y" target="_blank">The only alcoholic drink that pleases the brain: ‘Can prevent stroke’</a><br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5bU0nji0xXvFq5nz5VD9sNYAe0yzf86EsIpTb2ju0jzi7pv_bosNGHbO0CSZLiIKu0U_Ncor_Lo92VUP2AYebyyXFXYKKY_H3ce2k9NjG-KVOCrr_1sob_SqRtajeMepZPb4jzCxAueGkBdMS7dm28IXrKNCdYx3ALsFl1TXNwOPwv8BnXgBqZ8PonkI/s890/red-wine-2878407009.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Resveratrol" border="0" data-original-height="890" data-original-width="771" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip5bU0nji0xXvFq5nz5VD9sNYAe0yzf86EsIpTb2ju0jzi7pv_bosNGHbO0CSZLiIKu0U_Ncor_Lo92VUP2AYebyyXFXYKKY_H3ce2k9NjG-KVOCrr_1sob_SqRtajeMepZPb4jzCxAueGkBdMS7dm28IXrKNCdYx3ALsFl1TXNwOPwv8BnXgBqZ8PonkI/w277-h320/red-wine-2878407009.gif" title="https://hohmanrehab.com/health-benefits-of-red-wine/" width="277" /></a></div><br />Even better, in addition to all of the above, I also noted last week that there is another, quite unrelated, report specifically about the effect of red wine on our stomachs (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/well/eat/alcohol-gut-health-microbiome.html" target="_blank">How does alcohol affect the gut microbiome?</a>):<br /><p></p><blockquote>What does alcohol do to the trillions of microbes living in your gut? ... It’s clear that happy microbes are essential for proper digestion, immune function and intestinal health ... Researchers found that those who drank red wine — or to a lesser extent, white wine — had greater gut microbial diversity than those who did not. No such link was found with beer or liquor. The researchers hypothesized that polyphenols, compounds found in grape skins that are in high concentrations in red wines, might explain their results.<br /></blockquote>So, there you have it. There is nothing here <b>against</b> white wine, but red wine does appear to be superior, medically. The public needs to be told this. Many people think that it tastes better, but it is also turns out to be better for you. What better advertising could there be?<br /><br />The wine-makers have only slightly caught on, as the world has 56.4% of red grape area (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/wineecon/photos/a.209757432384404/6456177261075692/" target="_blank">Red winegrape varieties as a share of national vineyard 2016</a>), but France (notably!) has 65.5%, with the USA (63.9%) and Australia (63.5%) not fare behind. Interestingly, wine production in Bordeaux was >50% white prior to 1960 but has been 90% red this century (<a href="https://www.facebook.com/wineecon/photos/a.209757432384404/6391755110851241/" target="_blank">Red and white wine production in Bordeaux 1931–2019</a>).<br /><br />Finally, it is worth noting the concept of <a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/basics/skin-contact-white-wines-orange-wine-beginners/" target="_blank">Skin-contact white wines, a.k.a. Orange wine</a>, in which white grapes are vinified using the red-grape fermentation procedure. * It would be interesting to know whether these wines also have extra benefits compared to “normal” white wines.<br /><br />For a more general review article about the beneficial effects of wine-making, you could consult:<br /><blockquote>Alexandros Tsoupras, Victoria Ling Jun Ni, Éimhín O’Mahony, and Maria Karali. Winemaking: “With one stone, two birds”? A holistic review of the bio-functional compounds, applications and health benefits of wine and wineries’ by-products. <a href="https://doi.org/10.3390/fermentation9090838" target="_blank">Fermentation</a>. 2023, 9(9): 838.<br /></blockquote>This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the health benefits and applications of wine and its by-products. The focus is on the bio-functional compounds found in wine, particularly those with antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and anti-thrombotic properties, and their role in promoting health when consumed in moderation.<br /><br />And we do <b>not</b> need to worry about the alleged down-side of drinking red wine: <a href="https://www.euronews.com/next/2023/11/21/scientists-now-know-why-some-of-us-suffer-headaches-after-drinking-red-wine" target="_blank">Scientists now know why some of us suffer headaches after drinking red wine</a>; and remember, the articles quoted above do emphasize moderate intake.<br /><br /><hr /><br />* In the case of white wine, the grapes are pressed and the juice is then fermented into wine. For red wine, the grapes are first crushed to produce a mash of grape juice, fruit pulp and skin. This mash is then fermented into wine, and the colorants are pressed from the grape skins and transferred into the liquid (ie. pressing occurs after fermentation) (see <a href="https://blog.liebherr.com/appliances/us/red-wine-vs-white-wine-whats-difference/" target="_blank">White wine vs. Red wine: What’s the difference?</a>). It is thus the red-wine processing that is of interest in this post.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-24493499215644875852024-02-05T00:30:00.218+01:002024-02-05T00:30:00.132+01:00Wine affects us differently from other forms of alcohol, and the wine industry needs to advertize thisIt is nice to be able to write something positive for a change. Over the past couple of months I have written several posts about the effects of alcohol consumption on health, questioning the basis for the current World Health Organization (WHO) campaign to reduce alcohol consumption to zero. People are probably sick of hearing about this by now.<br /><br />However, on a much brighter notes, this week I will point out that alcohol is not just alcohol, but
the effect on us of consuming it is different depending on the source. In particular, the bodily effects of wine alcohol are, in several ways, different from other forms of alcohol.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFUbOzOV2R3gr_fS_1tgdCK73-4CazvTNuDLLxKONBoRLXPFTi8EIrrRUJ6lyTt1Gk5AdrXGrOAc9KqkL4thILfIZpXGJCRzlQiUqgoRescBaFlGYquWnkz26kUh5E2hF5wEERLfOcAYpqTgbiOMsLqCGJvifvIizTJiOlSAkQITMJs-Q2_RrJQ_5u82xp/s2594/Records_search.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Selection of studies for the review" border="0" data-original-height="1453" data-original-width="2594" height="224" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFUbOzOV2R3gr_fS_1tgdCK73-4CazvTNuDLLxKONBoRLXPFTi8EIrrRUJ6lyTt1Gk5AdrXGrOAc9KqkL4thILfIZpXGJCRzlQiUqgoRescBaFlGYquWnkz26kUh5E2hF5wEERLfOcAYpqTgbiOMsLqCGJvifvIizTJiOlSAkQITMJs-Q2_RrJQ_5u82xp/w400-h224/Records_search.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />I base this suggestion on this recent publication in the scientific literature:<br /><blockquote>Moderate wine consumption and health: a narrative review. Silvana Hrelia, Laura Di Renzo, Luigi Bavaresco, Elisabetta Bernardi, Marco Malaguti, and Attilio Giacosa. <a href="https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6643/15/1/175" target="_blank">Nutrients</a> 2023. 15(1): 175.</blockquote>This is a review paper, discussing the results of previously published work (as detailed in the figure above). The authors’ summary of their paper is this:<br /><blockquote>Twenty-four studies were selected after PubMed, Scopus and Google Scholar searches for the evaluation of moderate alcohol / wine consumption and health effects: eight studies concerned cardiovascular diseases, three concerned type 2 diabetes, four concerned neurodegenerative diseases, five concerned cancer and four were related to longevity ... The analysis clearly indicates that wine differs from other alcoholic beverages, and its moderate consumption not only does not increase the risk of chronic degenerative diseases, but is also associated with health benefits, particularly when included in a Mediterranean diet model.</blockquote>There is, of course, a lot more to the paper than just this simple summary. It goes into quite a lot of detail about the effects of different nutrient chemicals, for example (what they call Bioactive Compounds). For wine and health, they evaluate the epidemiological data concerning low-to-moderate wine consumption and: Cardiovascular Diseases, Type 2 Diabetes, Neurodegenerative Diseases, Cancer, and Longevity. However, their simple conclusion is clear, concerning the benefits of what they call The Mediterranean Way of Drinking: Wine in Moderation.<br /><br />Their ultimate conclusion is this:<br /><blockquote>Wine is actually an alchemy of unique properties, with a rich and original composition in terms of polyphenols and antioxidants, and a protective association between low-to- moderate wine consumption and cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes and neurological disorders. There is therefore strong scientific evidence from Mediterranean and non-Mediterranean countries that moderate wine consumption increases longevity, reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease, and does not appreciably influence the overall risk of cancer (even though it has to be underlined that not drinking alcohol is better for cancer prevention).</blockquote>This is in complete contradiction to the WHO. However, even better, in addition to all of the above, there is another, quite unrelated, report specifically about the effect of wine alcohol on our stomachs (<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/well/eat/alcohol-gut-health-microbiome.html" target="_blank">How does alcohol affect the gut microbiome?</a>):<br /><blockquote>What does alcohol do to the trillions of microbes living in your gut? ... It’s clear that happy microbes are essential for proper digestion, immune function and intestinal health ... Researchers found that those who drank red wine — or to a lesser extent, white wine — had greater gut microbial diversity than those who did not. No such link was found with beer or liquor. The researchers hypothesized that polyphenols, compounds found in grape skins that are in high concentrations in red wines, might explain their results.</blockquote><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSjpwcFCL-UcIxxIRj1xpUpUC3_fStzMUzmTpJkRZoo9JNY_9oLRAG77578HZ_dbIQeZneC6IAkkZfArDCcv_4DvJ7m-_mv9Z1uDiuf2zk2aAeTIBQalM4PrZ0xtVEUOC_hchEOMlKL5dsfgXigYLgeQeQVv8DcZ3Ogh9i1QA6bLtwcWcuomuSIn9NxAPp/s1178/diet.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The Mediterranean diet" border="0" data-original-height="1178" data-original-width="1157" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjSjpwcFCL-UcIxxIRj1xpUpUC3_fStzMUzmTpJkRZoo9JNY_9oLRAG77578HZ_dbIQeZneC6IAkkZfArDCcv_4DvJ7m-_mv9Z1uDiuf2zk2aAeTIBQalM4PrZ0xtVEUOC_hchEOMlKL5dsfgXigYLgeQeQVv8DcZ3Ogh9i1QA6bLtwcWcuomuSIn9NxAPp/w393-h400/diet.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="393" /></a></div><br />So, these accumulating facts that wine is consistently different from both beer and spirits is a serious business. The World Health Organization currently has an extensive campaign against <u><b>all</b></u> alcohol, and yet it appears that wine should not be dumped into the same bag as the other forms. This difference matters to quite a few of us, who are regular wine drinkers! It should also matter to the wine industry as a whole. *<br /><br />What are the general public supposed to make of this? We are being given seriously contradictory messages from different parts of the official media, regarding the consumption of alcohol, particularly in the form of wine. **<br /><br />All of this type of conflicting information has, in the past, created confusion among the bureaucrats in the USA, for example. At different times they have gone from prohibiting the production, sale and commercial consumption of alcohol (1920—1933), to endorsing an average level of 1—2 drinks per day (Dietary Guidelines for Americans 2010). Since then, the recommendation has been reduced to a maximum of 1 drink per day. This series of changes has been discussed in some detail online (<a href="https://filtermag.org/us-drinking-guidelines/" target="_blank">The perpetual pendulum of US drinking guidelines</a>). The recommendation may soon be revised to 2 drinks per week for all adults, in response to the pressure from what are referred to as the Neo-Prohibitionists. ***<br /><br />Well, I am too old to change myself now. I will continue to drink wine in the same way that I always have: my wife and I share a bottle of good wine whenever we feel like it. In practice, this does turn out to be an <b>average</b> of no more than one drink per day, anyway. It is reported that other old people feel the same way (<a href="https://www.winebusiness.com/news/article/282465" target="_blank">Results of consumer survey on U.S. wine market trends and challenges</a>).<br /><br />The Mediterranean diet is generally recognized as a healthy-eating plan, being focused on plants not meats, as described by the Mayo Clinic: <a href="https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/nutrition-and-healthy-eating/in-depth/mediterranean-diet/art-20047801" target="_blank">Mediterranean diet for heart health</a>. It has even been suggested that: “adhering to a healthy diet, in particular a traditional Mediterranean diet ... appears to confer some
protection against depression” (Healthy dietary indices and risk of
depressive outcomes: a systematic review and meta-analysis of
observational studies. <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41380-018-0237-8" target="_blank">Molecular Psychiatry</a> 2019 24: 965–986). So, go for it!<br /><br />You can also read about The Mediterranean Diet Wine Guide <a href="https://happymediterraneanlife.com/the-mediterranean-diet-wine-guide/" target="_blank">here</a> or <a href="https://weightlossherald.wordpress.com/2023/03/14/mediterranean-diet-wine-guide-choosing-the-best-wine/" target="_blank">here</a>. However, you should note that the evidence regarding this diet is actually pretty much the same as that for alcohol (see <a href="https://stealthsyndromes.com/?p=5701" target="_blank">The hidden hitches in Dry January / Mediterranean diet plans</a>).<br /><br />Also, always remember what <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eduardo_Galeano" target="_blank">Eduardo Galeano</a> once said: “We are all mortal until the first kiss and the second glass of wine.” And, of course, for what it is worth, the first attributed miracle of Jesus of Nazareth was turning water into wine for a wedding at Cana of Galilee (see <a href="https://tomwark.substack.com/p/the-mondavi-defense" target="_blank">The Mondavi Defense</a>).<br /><br /><hr /><br />* The recent WHO pronouncements quite clearly treat alcohol as a toxin, just like most drugs (both legal and illegal). However, it is worth pointing out here that “alcohol is not best described as ‘a toxin’. It can act as a drug and have toxic effects, but it is first and foremost a macronutrient” (<a href="https://chrismasterjohnphd.substack.com/p/alcohols-surprising-role-in-your" target="_blank">Alcohol’s surprising role in your health and longevity</a>). It is thus metabolized like any other nutrient, by a natural biochemical pathway in our bodies.<br /><br />** In 2021, Rob McMillan (of the Silicon Valley Bank Wine Division) apparently tried to establish an organization called WineRamp that, among other things, could counter misleading health-related data in a way that individual US wineries cannot. But he abandoned the effort last year because of a lack of industry support (<a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2024/01/wine-leaves-a-bad-taste-for-younger-drinkers" target="_blank">Wine leaves a bad taste for younger drinkers</a>).<br /><br />*** It is worth noting here that the guidelines always talk about ‘daily standard drinks’ as some sort of average — but what time period do we average it over? If I drink like a fish for three years and then go cold turkey for another three, does the six-year average count? I doubt it! Medical people, in general, are interested in weekly averages or fortnightly averages, at most. That is, any potentially negative effects of alcohol can occur quite quickly, in the big scheme of things. [Thanks to <a href="https://au.linkedin.com/in/sandy-hathaway-4b58a839" target="_blank">Sandy Hathaway</a> for raising this point.]<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-83970632452937350092024-01-29T00:30:00.200+01:002024-01-29T00:30:00.161+01:00The demise of the (old) wine industry?Normally, in this blog I investigate and discuss some sort of wine-industry data; but this week’s post is more in the nature of an opinion piece. Please bear with me.<br /><br />Things like global climate change (the negative effects of which substantially outweigh the positives), biodynamic agriculture, regenerative viticulture, sustainable winemaking, and worldwide over-supply are all undoubtedly big issues in the wine industry, and they rightly occupy a large amount of space in the wine-industry media. However, there is one issue that far exceeds all others — not many people want to drink wine any more. These other issues cannot be addressed properly until the latter one is addressed first; and so I will discuss it here.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpWulu7oX5taovpus44v26ZyrB0OvA7oYA1oxzWJr_52FgrBEkm_CePBjvzTNGLHCSTl1OUl3VpXMrRI8CAbDlKjTxhnIKp4AGuDLhjFuinMGuKoxFCgwLd6TjQ9G2I7g1l-lAYYiwGlnqED94ExcsqEmhEqtI2C-k4qGM0V8jDas7sbVGez_9wsENlHyM/s1260/plain-s.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Decling consumption of wine." border="0" data-original-height="660" data-original-width="1260" height="168" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhpWulu7oX5taovpus44v26ZyrB0OvA7oYA1oxzWJr_52FgrBEkm_CePBjvzTNGLHCSTl1OUl3VpXMrRI8CAbDlKjTxhnIKp4AGuDLhjFuinMGuKoxFCgwLd6TjQ9G2I7g1l-lAYYiwGlnqED94ExcsqEmhEqtI2C-k4qGM0V8jDas7sbVGez_9wsENlHyM/w320-h168/plain-s.png" title="World wine consumption (mhl) 2007-2022" width="320" /></a></div><br />The above graph shows recent world wine consumption (mhl) since 2007, as released by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV). It is not a pretty sight.<br /><br />There seem to be two issues that combine to create this disaster:<ul style="text-align: left;"><li>declining consumption of alcohol among younger drinkers</li><li>declining consumption of wine relative to other forms of alcohol, especially cheaper wines.</li></ul>The first of these issues is obviously important in the long term (eg. it is estimated that 30% of Gen Z drink no alcohol at all), but it is the second issue that I will discuss here.<br /><br />One of the basic consequences of this issue is, of course, that global wine production always exceeds consumption, as I have written about before:<br /><div style="margin-left: 40px;"><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2019/12/when-will-world-wine-consumption.html" target="_blank">When will world wine consumption finally catch up with production?</a><br /><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2022/06/why-does-world-wine-production-always.html" target="_blank">Why does world wine production always exceed consumption?</a><br /></div><br />In response to this ongoing problem with the once-vibrant global wine industry, there have been many comments and suggestions. For example, Rob McMillan (in the <a href="https://www.svb.com/trends-insights/reports/wine-report" target="_blank">Silicon Valley Bank State of the Wine Industry Report</a>) focuses on two solutions:<br /><blockquote>Industry members either have to “work together to create a resonant message that positively influences consumption”, or “use whatever means we have to increase efficiency in production, grape growing, and marketing”.</blockquote>However, neither of these is actually a solution, as neither deals with the fact that production > consumption. As Albert Einstein famously noted: “We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” Using the same thinking, we would respond to over-supply by product discounting and price reductions, and by converting vineyards to other crops. This is short-term thinking, often following the current fashion (eg. <a href="https://www.wine-searcher.com/m/2024/01/pink-wont-save-california-wine" target="_blank">Pink won’t save California wine</a>). At worst, it is simply competing against each other, as “we all fish for the same consumers in the same pond” (<a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/7-ways-steal-market-share-without-lowering-your-price-uddwc" target="_blank">7 ways to steal market share without lowering your price</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBBYf7Mt0EourAJAL28IXgimjplbQ2c2cTH_wg7-uyceXvmt61ymB4sv1BX6Sf1IgAMMB0kRBmxIL1PRryuoJp_eabjUS69eUQkUVlNCzXs_NwebrJpF3t5Ocp6W-nuob4FI6OeldotVi2AiTUFyWhANElyj1XxZqdrcCjrbELEP54I2akM2ngo3J7sf4a/s388/SupplyDemand.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Supply exceeds demand" border="0" data-original-height="186" data-original-width="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBBYf7Mt0EourAJAL28IXgimjplbQ2c2cTH_wg7-uyceXvmt61ymB4sv1BX6Sf1IgAMMB0kRBmxIL1PRryuoJp_eabjUS69eUQkUVlNCzXs_NwebrJpF3t5Ocp6W-nuob4FI6OeldotVi2AiTUFyWhANElyj1XxZqdrcCjrbELEP54I2akM2ngo3J7sf4a/s16000/SupplyDemand.gif" title="Supply exceeds demand" /></a></div><br />On the other hand, it seems to me that the fundamental problem is the wine industry itself, not the members of that industry. So, the members cannot resolve the problem, without a fundamental re-thinking of what that industry actually is. The industry has a customer problem — the current industry attitude seems to be: “we make <u><b>this</b></u>, and you should buy it”, whereas it needs to be: “you want <u><b>this</b></u>, and so we had better provide it”. That is, we must, as they say, change or die.<br /><br />By this, I mean that so much of the current wine industry, as part of our culture, is exclusionary, rather than embracing. For example:<ol style="text-align: left;"><li>wine vocabulary is often exclusionary — its taxonomies and labeling confuse people, in its perceived need to “wax poetic” when describing wine sensations (discussed in <a href="https://timatkin.com/different-wine-talk/" target="_blank">Different wine talk</a>)</li><li>the concept of wine tasting is exclusionary, because people need to be
educated in order to appreciate wine, as well as needing to know about grape
varieties and wine regions, for example (see <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/opinion/devils-advocate-need-know-0" target="_blank">Need to know</a>)</li><li>we also have follow-on exclusionary practices, such as the Certified Wine Educator credential (see <a href="https://winewitandwisdomswe.com/" target="_blank">The insider’s guide to the CWE exam</a>)</li><li>the price of good wine is often exclusionary, although there is definitely plenty of cheap stuff available (if you like that sort of thing) <br /></li><li>also wine tourism is often financially exclusionary — eg. we charge large
amounts for winery tastings (they were free in my day, which was the
1970s and 1980s) (see <a href="https://www.northbaybiz.com/2024/01/25/sharing-the-dream-lets-have-a-day-of-low-priced-tastings/" target="_blank">Sharing the dream: Let’s have a day of low-priced tastings</a>)<br /></li><li>even the labels are exclusionary, because most jurisdictions do not require an ingredients list on labels, unlike almost all other foods (although this is slowly changing).</li></ol>This cannot go on. As recently noted by Rodolphe Lameyse (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/interviews/we-need-reposition-wine-different-way-interview-rodolphe-lameyse" target="_blank">We need to reposition wine in a different way</a>): “I think wine can’t go on being a product that lives by itself.” In particular, we need to explicitly take into account <a href="https://www.insiderintelligence.com/content/podcast-daily-digital-habits-of-us-generations-gen-xs-approach-millennials-money-gen-z" target="_blank">The digital habits of different generations — Gen X’s approach, Millennials’ money, and Gen Z on social media</a>. These people are the customers, and we need to meet them on their terms, not ours.<br /><br />As recently noted (<a href="https://fortune.com/2024/01/23/baby-boomers-wine-premium-sales-gen-z-doesnt-drink-alcohol/" target="_blank">Wine industry grapples with being something only Boomers like, as younger consumers have ‘mindshare of wine half that of their elders’</a>):<br /><blockquote>The bigger problem is the wine-drinking consumer. Some 58% of consumers over the age of 65 — essentially, the Baby Boomer generation — prefer wine to other alcoholic beverages. All other demographics are nearly 30 points lower. Even worse for vineyards is that younger consumers aren’t as interested in wine. We must show the will to change and the creativity to evolve and adopt a new approach that retains current customers while appealing to a more diverse population.</blockquote> <div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_kl6cvmSetQYGbviuP2K5JFJBmRE4C_-x3AVjXTe7iZAVqAgU7fZhfKr4GVScZSr__mhFRs5s7RV-t60jNqYg0QYmx5wA4nAhxVlYImZDP2d6JZjYEsSaskvKp_zDttr9nAqWlXYFUurG7XBlfg5hAWKIPdTVJdpP6pgqMB_JhkxVmUDR1dtwV5LJfe96/s805/Branding.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Branding requires a lot of thinking" border="0" data-original-height="530" data-original-width="805" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_kl6cvmSetQYGbviuP2K5JFJBmRE4C_-x3AVjXTe7iZAVqAgU7fZhfKr4GVScZSr__mhFRs5s7RV-t60jNqYg0QYmx5wA4nAhxVlYImZDP2d6JZjYEsSaskvKp_zDttr9nAqWlXYFUurG7XBlfg5hAWKIPdTVJdpP6pgqMB_JhkxVmUDR1dtwV5LJfe96/w320-h211/Branding.gif" title="Branding requires a lot of thinking" width="320" /></a></div><br />In this regard, the single most sensible article about the wine industry that I have read in years appeared recently, from Jessica Broadbent:<br /><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><a href="https://www.just-drinks.com/newsletters/why-branding-could-be-behind-falling-wine-consumption/" target="_blank">Why branding could be behind falling wine consumption</a><br /></div>I will go so far as to say that “could be” in that title can be changed to “is” — it just seems to be that obvious, to me. I was going to quote parts of the article, but I then realized that I would end up quoting almost all of it; so do yourself a favor and read it all for yourself.<br /><br />The bottom line with the concept of branding is that a particular product is tailored for, and marketed to, a particular group of people. Provided that the product is manufactured in an acceptable manner (sustainable, biodynamic, etc), then all of the esoteric details referred to above are optional — the customer does not necessarily know them, and does not need to, unless they choose to. Put simply, no-one is excluded in any way, but they are embraced instead. If there are enough customers for the product, then it is sustainable, long-term.<br /><br />Moreover, as also noted by Rodolphe Lameyse: “Some [vineyards] will no longer make wine but will produce grapes to the specifications set by others who will supply markets under perhaps generic brands.” In other words, the grapes may not only come from one huge generic region (like most bag-in-box wines do), they could come from multiple regions, and perhaps even different regions in different years. It is the brand that is important, not the region or the grape.<br /><br />So, what grape varieties are involved, and where they come from, is pretty much irrelevant, in the big scheme of things. They could even change from year to year, and still be branded the same way. This idea is horrific to much of the current wine industry, especially in Europe, and also much of the USA; but the way things are going many of them won’t be there much longer, to feel that way. This saddens me, for sure, but a failure to change would sadden me even more. Stop looking in the mirror, and start looking at your (potential) customers, instead.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir6KD-_7aK9zjUH0hQF7IJJRwiGFr8YcKOiM_s8fxIAUW7uGIa7aP0ZwDgSHATxbVdQs7M2ehC7qQUp0Kq3mDMLuGEzujgPzlE9jGh7t67PsMkyF9z4pvzwkvILf2nK6MpL8r_1UziFqi7tTceRXk_1S8RQG_z-YZ9tjjQaH0Zr30PCNL7lQjEAFQijsAn/s579/Oslo_Dec22.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Einstein on the beach" border="0" data-original-height="579" data-original-width="517" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEir6KD-_7aK9zjUH0hQF7IJJRwiGFr8YcKOiM_s8fxIAUW7uGIa7aP0ZwDgSHATxbVdQs7M2ehC7qQUp0Kq3mDMLuGEzujgPzlE9jGh7t67PsMkyF9z4pvzwkvILf2nK6MpL8r_1UziFqi7tTceRXk_1S8RQG_z-YZ9tjjQaH0Zr30PCNL7lQjEAFQijsAn/w286-h320/Oslo_Dec22.gif" title="Einstein on the beach" width="286" /></a></div><p style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2022/december/oslo-davis/light-recent-events" target="_blank">Einstein on the beach</a>, by Oslo Davis.</p>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-39049013084308305212024-01-22T00:30:00.207+01:002024-01-22T00:30:00.129+01:00Has WHO got it wrong with its new zero-alcohol policy? Probably.A year ago, the World Health Organization (WHO) changed its attitude towards alcohol consumption, which it said it would recommend reducing as much as possible, because there is “no safe level of alcohol”, and that alcohol is associated with several different types of cancer. I wrote about this change in attitude in my previous post: <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/01/who-started-current-who-completely.html" target="_blank">Who started the current WHO completely negative attitude towards alcohol?</a>. This is a follow-up post, so that previous one could be read as background information.<br /><br />The important point of that post was that the previous (long-standing) evidence for possible beneficial effects of a small intake of alcohol on human mortality has recently been called into question. The previous evidence had been based on observing a so-called J-curve when plotting human mortality against alcohol intake, as shown in the first figure (below). Naturally, this graph might be right or wrong, and this distinction is the point at issue here.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnwlmirCt6fyLsOd1EU8FEypuULJe0EEbJshryPczJsDMm6kOw209ycU8cjro80NftLT-VnM9XwdSi2gFpv1zyMhjMjS1BP8HFLwmxP3yPJN7wb9cjKgQsCFLpozw1I_lDzKpHWSKW_xjhoa3UcniFfQWdsKxfEk6s7Az7js22BJGYmMb1fMbU3c2vd5EZ/s651/Figure1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="J-curves of motality versus alcohol intake" border="0" data-original-height="562" data-original-width="651" height="276" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgnwlmirCt6fyLsOd1EU8FEypuULJe0EEbJshryPczJsDMm6kOw209ycU8cjro80NftLT-VnM9XwdSi2gFpv1zyMhjMjS1BP8HFLwmxP3yPJN7wb9cjKgQsCFLpozw1I_lDzKpHWSKW_xjhoa3UcniFfQWdsKxfEk6s7Az7js22BJGYmMb1fMbU3c2vd5EZ/w320-h276/Figure1.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />Previous advice from WHO (ie. before last January) was based on comprehensive studies like this one (from which the above figure was taken): Di Castelnuovo A., Costanzo S., Bagnardi V., Donati M.B., Iacoviello L. and de Gaetano G. (2006) Alcohol dosing and total mortality in men and women: an updated meta-analysis of 34 prospective studies. <a href="https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/769554" target="_blank">Archives of Internal Medicine</a> 166: 2437-2445. This 17-year-old paper concluded:<br /><blockquote>Low levels of alcohol intake (1-2 drinks per day for women and 2-4 drinks per day for men) are inversely associated with total mortality in both men and women. Our findings, while confirming the hazards of excess drinking, indicate potential windows of alcohol intake that may confer a net beneficial effect of moderate drinking, at least in terms of survival.</blockquote>More recently, there are also summary papers like this one: Giovanni de Gaetano and Simona Costanzo (2017) Alcohol and health: praise of the J curves. <a href="https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jacc.2017.07.710" target="_blank">Journal of the American College of Cardiology</a> 70: 923–925. Clearly, this one supports the existence of the J-curves!<br /><br />However, since then, this J-curve graph has been claimed to not be J-shaped after all, but to be monotonically increasing instead (ie. the more alcohol consumed then the greater the mortality), leading to the conclusion that the safest amount of alcohol is zero intake. That is, the J-curve was previously accepted as being correct, but it is now claimed to be wrong. This conclusion was clearly stated in a report by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) collaborators; and the WHO has followed them.<br /><br />My previous blog post called this <b>new</b> conclusion into question. I noted that, while this conclusion is literally true, it is not <b>all</b> of the truth — small amounts of alcohol were shown to be equally as safe as zero alcohol intake. I also claimed that I am appalled by this act of omission (leaving out part of the truth). I will continue my story here, pointing out some limitations of the study mentioned above, along with updated information from a more recent paper.<br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">The GBD collaborators paper</h3>The paper that I have been referring to above, by the Global Burden of Disease collaborators, is:<br />Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990—2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31310-2/fulltext" target="_blank">Lancet</a> (2018) 392: 1015–1035.<br /><br />Since I am questioning it, let’s look at what is in there. Their written summary in two sections of the paper is:<br /><br /> <u>Methods</u><br /><blockquote>Using 694 data sources of individual and population-level alcohol consumption, along with 592 prospective and retrospective studies on the risk of alcohol use, we produced estimates of the prevalence of current drinking, abstention, the distribution of alcohol consumption among current drinkers in standard drinks daily (defined as 10 g of pure ethyl alcohol), and alcohol-attributable deaths and DALYs [disability-adjusted life-years]. For our exposure estimates, we extracted 121,029 data points from 694 sources across all exposure indicators. For our relative risk estimates, we extracted 3,992 relative risk estimates across 592 studies. These relative risk estimates corresponded to a combined study population of 28 million individuals and 649,000 registered cases of respective outcomes.</blockquote> <u>Findings</u><br /><blockquote>Globally, alcohol use was the seventh leading risk factor for both deaths and DALYs in 2016, accounting for 2.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1.5—3.0) of age-standardised female deaths and 6.8% (5.8—8.0) of age-standardised male deaths, [so that] the attributable burden for men around three times higher than that for women in 2016. The level of alcohol consumption that minimised harm across health outcomes was zero (95% UI 0·0—0·8) standard drinks per week.</blockquote>There is no doubt that the contributors have performed an impressive study. They have collated a massive amount of data, and developed some innovative ways to analyze that data, accounting for previous limitations. However, there is still one basic limitation in this type of work — the authors compiled data from pre-existing sources, rather than doing an experiment of their own.<br /><br />There are ways to grade what is called The Strength of Evidence of any published scientific paper. In this case, Lewis Perdue’s <a href="https://www.stealthsyndromesstudy.com/?p=4833" target="_blank">Stealth Syndromes Study</a> grades this type of paper as only Strength C, with this comment: <br /><blockquote>Published pre-prints may be credible depending upon the study design (clinical, randomized, etc.), the investigators, methods, and institutional affiliations.</blockquote>Basically, there are these possible Complicating Factors For Human Studies:<br /> C-SRD: Self reported / selected data<br /> C-SRDb: Social pressure / desirability approval bias<br /><br />So, we do not have Grade A evidence, or even Grade B evidence. There are thus serious limitations to the conclusions from the study, and we should bear that in mind when evaluating them. Basically, these are what we call “observational” studies, which do not yield causal data, but merely offer potential connections or indications between observations and conclusions.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQFXKNoMGPttONuF0QC2aOMifPXotLNuc2KRR5R3y4IJ21REbWgRw1i4apTRln6jE_VBpDFtTkZlM1Binf1O-8CRHlKdjxvLoNABm0056RSvCZwvdq0myt4ik9qMZzhXxqjJ9TvMo_aEDn6jXE6clIuIFuIMwlrR3Smi288Gwj6GcXhxsicwyTtZMZ4I4G/s1277/Update2020.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Updated data concerning mortality and alcohol intake" border="0" data-original-height="523" data-original-width="1277" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjQFXKNoMGPttONuF0QC2aOMifPXotLNuc2KRR5R3y4IJ21REbWgRw1i4apTRln6jE_VBpDFtTkZlM1Binf1O-8CRHlKdjxvLoNABm0056RSvCZwvdq0myt4ik9qMZzhXxqjJ9TvMo_aEDn6jXE6clIuIFuIMwlrR3Smi288Gwj6GcXhxsicwyTtZMZ4I4G/w400-h164/Update2020.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Follow-up paper<br /></h3>The paper discussed above is from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2016. There has been another part of this series of studies that has been published since then, this time by the GBD 2020 Alcohol Collaborators:<br />Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(22)00847-9/fulltext" target="_blank">Lancet</a> (2022) 400: 185–235<br /><br />Their notes about their new work are:<br /><blockquote>For this analysis, we constructed burden-weighted dose–response relative risk curves across 22 health outcomes to estimate the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL) and non-drinker equivalence (NDE), the consumption level at which the health risk is equivalent to that of a non-drinker, using disease rates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2020 for 21 regions, including 204 countries and territories, by 5-year age group, sex, and year for individuals aged 15–95 years and older from 1990 to 2020.</blockquote>This study thus focuses on variation among ages and countries, which is valuable in-depth information. Their results are:<br /><blockquote>The burden-weighted relative risk curves for alcohol use varied by region and age. Among individuals aged 15–39 years in 2020, the TMREL varied between 0 (95% uncertainty interval 0–0) and 0·603 (0·400–1·00) standard drinks per day, and the NDE varied between 0·002 (0–0) and 1·75 (0·698–4·30) standard drinks per day. Among individuals aged 40 years and older, the burden-weighted relative risk curve was J-shaped for all regions, with a 2020 TMREL that ranged from 0·114 (0–0·403) to 1·87 (0·500–3·30) standard drinks per day and an NDE that ranged between 0·193 (0–0·900) and 6·94 (3·40–8·30) standard drinks per day.</blockquote>Note that they refer to the existence of J-curves for some age groups. So, J-curves do exist! Even using roughly the same data as in 2016! Furthermore, note that zero drinks is, indeed, the lower alcohol limit for safety, but that the authors also have a table updating the 2016 results to much less extreme levels. This table is shown as the second figure above.<br /><br />This sort of apparent conflict among publications is the basic problem with what we call meta-analyses (where the results of multiple studies are considered together). It matters very much which studies are included in the meta-analysis, and what data analyses are done on the results (this is how you end up with Strength C evidence).<br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Conclusion<br /></h3>So, there you have it. The latest research (2020) is much less extreme in its conclusions about the mortality associated with low alcohol levels than is the previous one (2016). Imagine what might come next! The World Health Organization needs to take note, since it used the first one, but not the second one, even though the latter was published <u><b>before</b></u> WHO produced last year's recommendations. There is clearly no longer a consensus about alcohol — there is some sort of controversy, not a clear-cut solution. It seems to be far too early for WHO to make such a definitive (unambiguous) recommendation.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-91358136857552762472024-01-15T00:30:00.070+01:002024-01-15T00:30:00.137+01:00Who started the current WHO completely negative attitude towards alcohol?I think that I have the answer to the title question, and that answer appalls me. The World Health Organization (WHO) used to accept the idea that small amounts of alcohol were not necessarily bad for you, and may actually have positive effects on some aspects of health. They no longer accept this — now, all amounts of alcohol are considered to be bad. Read on to see why they changed their minds.<br /><br />I have written about this topic before, but I think that this is a very important one for the wine industry, as this seems to be one of the biggest global threats to that industry (along with local threats from neo-prohibitionists, etc), as also is global warming. This post is actually split into two halves, and will thus be continued next week.<br /><br />As background, I've written several posts recently about wine and health:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/11/a-scientist-looks-at-alcohol-and-health.html" target="_blank">A scientist looks at alcohol and health, and is concerned</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/11/is-consuming-wine-really-as-unhealthy.html" target="_blank">Is consuming wine really as unhealthy as tobacco?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/12/health-and-wine-and-also-coca-wine.html" target="_blank">Health and wine, and also Coca Wine</a><br /></li></ul><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">Previously<br /></h3><p style="text-align: left;">The reason for the previous positive attitude towards alcohol is summarized by Mark Hicken (<a href="https://www.winelaw.ca/cms/index.php/news/402-don-t-let-anti-alcohol-grinches-ruin-your-holidays" target="_blank">Don’t let anti-alcohol grinches ruin your holidays</a>):<br /></p><blockquote>The science related to safe levels of [alcohol] consumption has not changed. Hundreds of studies, and decades of scientific research, have consistently shown that those who drink in moderation live about as long (or even slightly longer) than those who don’t drink at all. The reality is that moderate drinking provides some cardiovascular benefits while slightly increasing the risk of certain cancers, some of which are very rare ... For most people, there is little or no effect on overall health and mortality.</blockquote><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimmUra7HZ91ElFsCqaBqQOzSMEukv_sa6KdiQK5_SA2HfwfoxWDpjjcA9yYPJGDHHO80lzP04mdhTDSYxAR4YpWGY75jFzy1Y0VlDdvSXz-ZEnwak5qG-Loo_xBqUg2ohesDC1NI7gsQZJtn3b-3tmU79JH23-7qCCayXjsUtMJGHi58dQaaDcWH74InVE/s1752/gr2.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The so-called J-curve of mortailty and alcohol" border="0" data-original-height="1514" data-original-width="1752" height="277" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEimmUra7HZ91ElFsCqaBqQOzSMEukv_sa6KdiQK5_SA2HfwfoxWDpjjcA9yYPJGDHHO80lzP04mdhTDSYxAR4YpWGY75jFzy1Y0VlDdvSXz-ZEnwak5qG-Loo_xBqUg2ohesDC1NI7gsQZJtn3b-3tmU79JH23-7qCCayXjsUtMJGHi58dQaaDcWH74InVE/w320-h277/gr2.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />This idea is usually pictured as a so-called J-curve, as shown above. It indicates that small amounts of alcohol (eg. one standard drink per day) actually <b>reduce</b> the risk of people dying (compared to zero alcohol), due to various medical causes. This particular picture is from: Giovanni de Gaetano and Simona Costanzo (2017) Alcohol and health: Praise of the J curves. <a href="https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jacc.2017.07.710" target="_blank">Journal of the American College of Cardiology</a> 70: 923–925.<br /><br />Indeed, the <a href="https://cafrd.ca/" target="_blank">Canadian Association for Responsible Drinkers</a> hosts a whole web page covering this topic: <a href="https://cafrd.ca/recent-studies-on-alcohol-health" target="_blank">Recent Studies on Alcohol + Health</a>. It lists 12 science / medicine studies published from 2018—2023 confirming the health effects of moderate alcohol consumption. It also has links to pages containing both academic and medical commentary on the matter.<br /><br />In spite of all of this, groups like the World Health Organization (WHO) would now have us believe that there is “no safe level of alcohol consumption and that alcohol causes cancer” (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/who-shifts-its-alcohol-narratives-and-wine-industry-faces-new-challenges" target="_blank">WHO shifts its alcohol narratives</a>). Proactively, the WHO has suggested reducing consumption via global tax increases on “unhealthy products”, including wine (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/news-wine/who-demands-tax-increases-alcohol-and-sugar" target="_blank">WHO demands tax increases on alcohol and sugar</a>), as I recently discussed (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/01/who-and-use-of-taxes-to-reduce-alcohol.html" target="_blank">WHO and the use of taxes to reduce alcohol consumption</a>).<br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">What caused WHO to change their tune?<br /></h3><p style="text-align: left;">The WHO makes it clear that their change of tune is based on accumulating medical evidence. This leads me to ask an obvious question: what is the first of the recent medical / scientific studies that made these new claims?<br /><br />My research leads me to identify this published scientific paper, which appears to be a very important one of them, from 2018:<br /></p><blockquote>Alcohol use and burden for 195 countries and territories, 1990—2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. <a href="https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31310-2/fulltext" target="_blank">Lancet</a> (2018) 392: 1015–1035. (Max G Griswold seems to be the senior author, and Emmanuela Gakidou is the corresponding author.)</blockquote>This paper is actually a summary of a more detailed report:<br /><a href="https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2016" target="_blank"></a><blockquote><a href="https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2016" target="_blank">Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2016</a>. This was authored by the MGBD 2016 Alcohol Collaborators (517 people are listed as the collaborators).</blockquote><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq65HQWzmCJzyClgJt1MYlKRuLTWgYoDgyyXLMfQuImyhKEBT1EO9dBiZUtXDnoZzg2i-6J9aEwh-W2RunHU5e_Ctjy0cxv92RJHPCIs07Nz2ezqr7Vy2_frhyphenhyphenuH0lInAwHzJtBQO4Ydjd7K8XIPTMO0LjLeq_YKpaJCNHuy_ChYtjoo41UCiA47oTyGY9/s991/Figure5.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The revised J-curve" border="0" data-original-height="991" data-original-width="899" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgq65HQWzmCJzyClgJt1MYlKRuLTWgYoDgyyXLMfQuImyhKEBT1EO9dBiZUtXDnoZzg2i-6J9aEwh-W2RunHU5e_Ctjy0cxv92RJHPCIs07Nz2ezqr7Vy2_frhyphenhyphenuH0lInAwHzJtBQO4Ydjd7K8XIPTMO0LjLeq_YKpaJCNHuy_ChYtjoo41UCiA47oTyGY9/w290-h320/Figure5.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="290" /></a></div><br />The conclusion from the published 2018 paper is:<br /><blockquote>Alcohol use is a leading risk factor for global disease burden and causes substantial health loss. We found that the risk of all-cause mortality, and of cancers specifically, rises with increasing levels of consumption, and the level of consumption that minimises health loss is zero.</blockquote>Note that this is <b>literally</b> true, but that it is not <b><u>all</u></b> of the truth! Their Figure 5, as shown immediately above, is their revised version of the J-curve (as shown in the top figure). Note that the mortality curve does not drop below zero, which is the point that the authors are emphasizing. However, based on this graph, the authors could equally accurately have said that “the level of consumption that minimises health loss is one drink per day”. This is an act of omission, not commission — what they say is literally true, but it is only half of the story. That is why I am appalled!<br /><br /><h3 style="text-align: left;">An evaluation of the 2018 paper<br /></h3><p style="text-align: left;">Anyway, one can see why WHO might change their tack. The report is unambiguous, and actually concludes: <br /></p><blockquote>These results suggest that alcohol control policies might need to be revised worldwide, refocusing on efforts to lower overall population-level consumption ... In terms of reducing population-level alcohol use, WHO provides a set of best buys—policies that provide an individual year of healthy life at less than the cost of the average individual income. Governments should consider how these recommendations can be implemented within their local contexts and broader policy platforms, including excise taxes on alcohol, controlling the physical availability of alcohol and the hours of sale, and controlling alcohol advertising.</blockquote>There is no doubt that the contributors have performed an impressive study. They have collated a massive amount of data, and developed some innovative ways to analyze that data, accounting for previous limitations. However, there is still one basic limitation in this type of work — the authors compiled data from pre-existing sources, rather than doing an experiment of their own. I will discuss this limitation in next week’s post.<br /><br />Meanwhile, I noted above that previous studies found a positive effect on health of small amounts of alcohol (the so-called J-curve). When discussing these previous J-curves, the authors note:<br /><blockquote>Past findings subsequently suggested a persistent protective effect for some low or moderate levels of alcohol consumption on all-cause mortality. However, these studies were limited by small sample sizes, inadequate control for confounders, and non-optimal choices of a reference category for calculating relative risks. More recent research, which has used methodologies such as mendelian randomisation, pooling cohort studies, and multivariable adjusted meta-analyses, increasingly shows either a non-significant or no protective effect of drinking on all-cause mortality or cardiovascular outcomes. Our results on the weighted attributable risk are consistent with this body of work.</blockquote><blockquote>In estimating the weighted relative risk curve, we found that consuming zero (95% UI 0·0—0·8) standard drinks daily minimised the overall risk of all health loss (figure 5; shown above). The risk rose monotonically with increasing amounts of daily drinking. This weighted relative risk curve took into account the protective effects of alcohol use associated with ischaemic heart disease and diabetes in females. However, these protective effects were offset by the risks associated with cancers, which increased monotonically with consumption.</blockquote>So, there you have it — the monotonic increase in mortality with increasing alcohol consumption is literally true, based on their data, but it is <b>also</b> true that lower levels of alcohol consumption have no notable difference in effects. The WHO have changed their mind for a very dubious reason. There is more to this topic, which I will cover in my next blog post.<br /><p></p><p></p><p></p>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-66752561775457985672024-01-08T00:30:00.137+01:002024-01-08T09:25:41.091+01:00Alcohol control states / countriesI have recently written about the imposition of alcohol excise taxes as a method to control consumption, and thus reduce it per person (<a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2024/01/who-and-use-of-taxes-to-reduce-alcohol.html" target="_blank">WHO and the use of taxes to reduce alcohol consumption</a>). This should work in theory, and apparently also does so in practice. However, there is a more serious way to achieve this same goal — the government can take control of wholesale and / or retail distribution of alcohol (spirits / wine / beer).<br /><br />Let’s look at this topic here. Basically, what we are dealing at here is an <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_monopoly" target="_blank">alcohol monopoly</a> of some sort. In one sense, it is used as an alternative to the total prohibition of alcohol consumption — it reduces consumption but not all the way to zero (as in the countries shown in this map, from <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_alcohol_prohibition" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnAhXT-DlNEF4gm9rodOOo5ty_F9wGtb16PcbsEsYTL3-38pKgSSqieI_e4QXB1NbBdaMYVDKnLIdlv6_NSSTx15bI8PfRI92urP9R4B_yIRml2xoQW0m1PvmKHDMgvO2TB5bKf2dm2qtRF2xc6gtdQwK-3nVCq5zQZb59H9AC3sVYaFoosLe_2BIQwZmY/s2560/Alcohol_Prohibition.svg.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Countries with an alcohol prohibition" border="0" data-original-height="1298" data-original-width="2560" height="203" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjnAhXT-DlNEF4gm9rodOOo5ty_F9wGtb16PcbsEsYTL3-38pKgSSqieI_e4QXB1NbBdaMYVDKnLIdlv6_NSSTx15bI8PfRI92urP9R4B_yIRml2xoQW0m1PvmKHDMgvO2TB5bKf2dm2qtRF2xc6gtdQwK-3nVCq5zQZb59H9AC3sVYaFoosLe_2BIQwZmY/w400-h203/Alcohol_Prohibition.svg.png" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />There have been a number of formal studies published in the health literature, looking at a range of countries with different alcohol policies, in order to evaluate the effects of government control of alcohol sales.<br /><br />For example: Comparative analysis of alcohol control policies in 30 countries.<br />Donald A Brand, Michaela Saisana, Lisa A Rynn, Fulvia Pennoni, and Albert B Lowenfels. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1876414/" target="_blank">PLoS Medicine</a> 2007 Apr; 4(4): e151. They note:<br /><blockquote>To assist public health leaders and policymakers, the authors developed a composite indicator — the Alcohol Policy Index — to gauge the strength of a country's alcohol control policies. The Index was applied to the 30 countries that compose the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, and regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between policy score and per capita alcohol consumption. The strength of alcohol control policies, as estimated by the Alcohol Policy Index, varied widely among 30 countries located in Europe, Asia, North America, and Australia. The study revealed a clear inverse relationship between policy strength and alcohol consumption.</blockquote>Similarly, a more ambitious study compared several different Indexes and many more countries: Alcohol control policies and alcohol consumption: an international comparison of 167 countries. Joana Madureira-Lima, Sandro Galea. <a href="https://jech.bmj.com/content/72/1/54" target="_blank">Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health</a> 2018; 72: 54–60. Their conclusion is:<br /><blockquote>Index scores and ranks from different methodological approaches are highly correlated (r=0.99). Higher scores were associated with lower consumption across the five methods. For each 1 score increase in the ACPI, the reduction in per capita alcohol consumption varies from −0.024µL (95%µCI (−0.043 to −0.004) to −0.014µL (95%µCI (−0.034 to 0.005).</blockquote>So, government control of alcohol availability really does seem to achieve its goal of reducing consumption, without actually eliminating it. The World Health Organization does, of course, have an approving report on this topic: <a href="https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/government-monopoly-on-retail-sales" target="_blank">Government monopoly on retail sales</a>.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVmQiXBM1QglbW0u9p1tmTVDXJHkhWlNSURyAmOjLr3LNnifgR4KYMuTXfpSv05v_1SFJShaIGpWOvas6ot_JCoeWGaGMivrMWwi31bdbCx-0rKFT2u2ogaCqcRlo4ew19mOOhNBZYXkSYgBvb35Ox4Rf64Hi0DOFsVilpl2GljbhJgzXSTEUoWW86SZFb/s1280/jech-2018-January-72-1-54-F1.large.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Ranked countries based on the ACPI" border="0" data-original-height="1280" data-original-width="333" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVmQiXBM1QglbW0u9p1tmTVDXJHkhWlNSURyAmOjLr3LNnifgR4KYMuTXfpSv05v_1SFJShaIGpWOvas6ot_JCoeWGaGMivrMWwi31bdbCx-0rKFT2u2ogaCqcRlo4ew19mOOhNBZYXkSYgBvb35Ox4Rf64Hi0DOFsVilpl2GljbhJgzXSTEUoWW86SZFb/w166-h640/jech-2018-January-72-1-54-F1.large.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="166" /></a></div><br />According to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcohol_monopoly" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>:<br /><blockquote>[Alcohol monopolies] exist in all Nordic countries except Denmark proper (only on the Faroe Islands), and in all provinces and territories in Canada except Alberta (which privatized its monopoly in 1993). In the United States, there are some alcoholic beverage control states, where alcohol wholesale is controlled by a state government operation and retail sales are offered by either state or private retailers.</blockquote>The graph immediately above is from the paper by Madureira-Lima and Galea, listing the Alcohol Control Policy Index (ACPI) for a range of countries. In this case, the bigger the score then the tighter is the government control.<br /><br />Note that the USA is a long way down the list, although it is not that far behind the United Kingdom, for example. So, there is some sort of serious government control. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alcoholic_beverage_control_state" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a> lists the 17 control or monopoly U.S. states in November 2019 as:<br /> Alabama<br /> Idaho<br /> Iowa <br /> Maine<br /> Michigan<br /> Mississippi<br /> Montana<br /> New Hampshire<br /> North Carolina<br /> Ohio<br /> Oregon<br /> Pennsylvania<br /> Utah<br /> Vermont<br /> Virginia<br /> West Virginia<br /> Wyoming<br />Apparently, about one-quarter of the United States’ population lives in these control states.<br /><br />The figure above also confirms that the Nordic countries have the greatest government control (ie. Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden are at the top of the list). The World Health Organization has approvingly discussed their situation: <a href="https://www.who.int/europe/news/item/30-06-2023-reducing-alcohol-consumption--the-nordic-way--alcohol-monopolies--marketing-bans-and-higher-taxation" target="_blank">Reducing alcohol consumption, the Nordic way: alcohol monopolies, marketing bans and higher taxation</a>.<br /><br />For those of you who are interested, I have written several relevant posts about the Nordic situation, notably with regard to Sweden (where I live), and often disagreeing with the view of outside commentators:<br /><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/05/wine-monopolies-and-availability-of-wine.html" target="_blank">Wine monopolies, and the availability of wine</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2022/06/which-countries-are-dominated-by-only.html" target="_blank">Which countries are dominated by only a few alcohol suppliers?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2017/06/why-is-wine-often-cheaper-in-sweden.html" target="_blank">Why is wine often cheaper in Sweden than elsewhere?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2020/04/is-scandinavia-currently-most.html" target="_blank">Is Scandinavia currently the most attractive wine export market?</a></li></ul><br />I will finish with a <a href="https://tomwark.substack.com/p/jeff-siegel-the-ramble" target="_blank">recent</a> pertinent web exchange, about the USA:<br /><br />Tom Wark<blockquote>My biggest fear is the rise of institutional Neo-prohibitionism. In my view, the threat of government action against alcohol is greater now than it has ever been.</blockquote>Jeff Siegel:<br /><blockquote>The solution will require everyone in the wine business — producers, wholesalers, retailers, importers, and the rest — to work together. Which is almost impossible, and may be wine’s biggest problem.</blockquote>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-69792064360438661492024-01-01T00:30:00.001+01:002024-01-03T20:49:58.800+01:00WHO and the use of taxes to reduce alcohol consumptionGreeting of the season:<br />Gott nytt år! Happy New Year. Bonne année. Frohes Neues Jahr. Feliz año nuevo. Buon Anno!<br /><br />It has been noted recently that the World Health Organization (WHO) is currently running a campaign to eliminate alcohol consumption throughout the world (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/who-shifts-its-alcohol-narratives-and-wine-industry-faces-new-challenges" target="_blank">WHO shifts its alcohol narratives and the wine industry faces new challenges</a>). As part of this concerted drive, this year the WHO released a <a href="https://www.who.int/publications-detail-redirect/9789240086104" target="_blank">Global Report on the Use of Alcohol Taxes</a>. I will look briefly at one aspect of this document here: alcohol taxes.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7JLShsbm1hsT8l68ndbnuvGFBBz2LT2ZcsPhmV87fkYdpXeFv6_UQTDTB2wzXNGVvXIpYOh9n1gQG9w8M3Pzc02aAENtuwsP3OQ_BNuY1mYdnLlO5yTMiQ1N25cIYJb82xaUs25ULmczPYjfRIr3D2MxjACBAAMI4yk10Mb-QROVjaqyszmeLz2Cwb4e/s1193/wine_map.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Countries with wine excise taxes" border="0" data-original-height="839" data-original-width="1193" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhg7JLShsbm1hsT8l68ndbnuvGFBBz2LT2ZcsPhmV87fkYdpXeFv6_UQTDTB2wzXNGVvXIpYOh9n1gQG9w8M3Pzc02aAENtuwsP3OQ_BNuY1mYdnLlO5yTMiQ1N25cIYJb82xaUs25ULmczPYjfRIr3D2MxjACBAAMI4yk10Mb-QROVjaqyszmeLz2Cwb4e/w320-h225/wine_map.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />The report notes:<br /><blockquote>Alcohol consumption is one of the leading risk factors for population health world-wide. While historically predominantly used to raise revenue, excise taxes are an effective tool to decrease the affordability of alcoholic beverages and reduce alcohol consumption and related harms. However, existing taxes on alcoholic beverages differ widely in terms of design and level, and most are not optimized to pursue health goals.</blockquote>Well, of course they are not! Taxes are principally designed to get money into government coffers, where it can be used for a multitude of things. Improved health may well be one of these things, but taxes are hardly optimized for this use.<br /><br />Anyway, the report continues:<br /><blockquote>Amongst the different types of consumption taxes (including excise taxes, value added taxes, or VAT, sales taxes, and import duties), excise taxes are preferred from a public health perspective as they raise the relative price of alcoholic beverages compared to other products and services in the economy, helping reduce affordability.</blockquote>An excise tax is a legislated tax on specific goods or services at the time they are purchased (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/excisetax.asp" target="_blank">Excise tax: what it is and how it works</a>). As such, an alcohol excise tax <b>could</b> be specifically arranged to financially address any ill-effects of alcohol on the community, if the government so decided. It is thus more specific than, say, a sales tax (which might apply to many different products).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgutkUWobkgz_3E5jRYEBd7z8uigM_Da7N0HWAkOguoJgmLM_XLo5H91fn4XvNwprUWHUCxrm77gklsjJ2UigNsAcxbi9bxFz9hIs8ltiZZ_2FWc4z8gDhY7uqaU383kLWkII4Y9PRAhD_Ls1r-pw5ITJB_4AyKvxoVxj3u53s72ZcfZp7-NgGVUlLEstni/s1176/beer_map.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Countries with beer excise taxes" border="0" data-original-height="731" data-original-width="1176" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgutkUWobkgz_3E5jRYEBd7z8uigM_Da7N0HWAkOguoJgmLM_XLo5H91fn4XvNwprUWHUCxrm77gklsjJ2UigNsAcxbi9bxFz9hIs8ltiZZ_2FWc4z8gDhY7uqaU383kLWkII4Y9PRAhD_Ls1r-pw5ITJB_4AyKvxoVxj3u53s72ZcfZp7-NgGVUlLEstni/w320-h199/beer_map.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />However, this is all just theory. As WHO further notes, in practice:<br /><blockquote>As of July 2022, at least 148 countries have applied excise taxes to alcoholic beverages at the national level. However, wine is exempted from excise taxes in at least 22 countries, particularly those in the European Region. Excise taxes should apply to all alcoholic beverages. <br /></blockquote><blockquote>Less than 25% of countries surveyed apply ad valorem excise taxes, with the majority of them (around 60%) applying them on the producer (manufacturer) price rather than on the retail price. <br /></blockquote><blockquote>Out of the 148 countries that apply excise taxes to alcoholic beverages covered in this analysis, 21 earmark such revenue for various health programmes, including for universal health coverage, the prevention and control of non-communicable disease (NCD), alcohol control, and the promotion of physical activity.</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2HFJde0kQGFwvjn3iaLSSHg2d_B1P00FQmGaex2lHuCsL3Gqr6isP5WNi5gRFyyp_Y4Sz_b6h-F70imSAqsThRR-qUOOrLULu28W4OhyphenhyphenHx-_92uZovuoE-CdB3817J-daq_g0tASRru0b7TCHcDwyMXrmvTUL-G2ZJxhWBkVN5n9TnTRYLuaSCXLVh48U/s1172/spirits_map.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Countries with spirits excise taxes" border="0" data-original-height="761" data-original-width="1172" height="208" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2HFJde0kQGFwvjn3iaLSSHg2d_B1P00FQmGaex2lHuCsL3Gqr6isP5WNi5gRFyyp_Y4Sz_b6h-F70imSAqsThRR-qUOOrLULu28W4OhyphenhyphenHx-_92uZovuoE-CdB3817J-daq_g0tASRru0b7TCHcDwyMXrmvTUL-G2ZJxhWBkVN5n9TnTRYLuaSCXLVh48U/w320-h208/spirits_map.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />WHO further notes:<br /><blockquote>Volume-based specific excise represents the most prevalent type of excise tax systems applied to beer and wine, while alcohol-content-based specific excise tax systems are the most prevalent for spirits.</blockquote>The countries involved in these different taxation strategies are shown in the three maps above (taken directly from the WHO report). However, in the case of wine, the WHO need not worry, because <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2022/02/global-wine-consumption-has-been.html" target="_blank">Global wine consumption has been declining for a long time</a>, without any changes to the global set of tax systems.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-68163730899277258932023-12-25T00:30:00.110+01:002023-12-31T19:22:13.898+01:00This is how Australians market wine (you may be surprised)Greetings of the season:<br />God jul! Merry Christmas. Joyeux noël. Fröhe Weihnachten. Feliz Navidad. Buon Natale!<br /><br />Each country has its own way of marketing wine to its populace. That is, there are commercial, cultural and legal arrangements that facilitate and encourage the transfer of wine from the producers to the customers. These arrangements can differ greatly between countries.<br /><br />Here, I will look briefly at how the Australians appear to do it, within Australia itself.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXZtm8YxHZE0hk5Ri9Et_RRjxZ6bDXieQncgAymZ0TpGJsq6QMYiCyWbwMNwqw0t4W2wJQaTxvnxSaelvJ2Fev8xEbTJbA9W6pxy468iOwZMiGlsAdawTij4T4RbMxf5uLBbsU2t_4YOblff0Quqh7IvLXh__KXWaevWFhumvtfJQyN7o97eCcu_ZaOLPr/s661/Australia.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Australian vineyard" border="0" data-original-height="533" data-original-width="661" height="258" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgXZtm8YxHZE0hk5Ri9Et_RRjxZ6bDXieQncgAymZ0TpGJsq6QMYiCyWbwMNwqw0t4W2wJQaTxvnxSaelvJ2Fev8xEbTJbA9W6pxy468iOwZMiGlsAdawTij4T4RbMxf5uLBbsU2t_4YOblff0Quqh7IvLXh__KXWaevWFhumvtfJQyN7o97eCcu_ZaOLPr/w320-h258/Australia.gif" title="Australian vineyard" width="320" /></a></div><br />The main arrangement is via wine brands, of course. That is, wine is aggregated into volumes that are then marketed under a single name, or label. This is the most common arrangement around the world. The wine producers sometimes create the brands themselves, and thus sell the wine direct to the customers, or they sell the wine to intermediaries, called retailers, who then sell the wine to the consumers.<br /><br />However, one aspect of the Australian system does seem to differ quite considerably from many other countries. How many of these wine brands are owned by huge conglomerations? That is, there are many wine brands on the retail shelves, but not quite so many companies standing behind those brands.<br /><br />The web site that contains the most detailed summary of this situation for Australia is: <a href="https://www.therealreview.com/who-makes-my-wine/" target="_blank">Who makes my wine?</a> It was put online by The Real Review back in February 2018, and was most recently updated in December 2023. This lists which companies dominate wine retailing in Australia, and for which the ownership of their brands is often not publicly disclosed. The Real Review data are summarized below.<br /><br />There are, of course, wine conglomerates in Australia, who have simply purchased other wine companies. This is widespread throughout the world, as discussed at: <a href="https://www.zippia.com/advice/largest-wine-companies/" target="_blank">The 10 largest wine companies in the world</a>. The biggest of these conglomerates in Australia are shown in this first table. The largest of these, Treasury Wine Estates, is only the fifth largest
wine company globally, so there is nothing particularly out of line
here.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZciULjAt4Lb1U9voUEBqv3u3EyPpCB9SSEmZtyj-NKAqip1gWH8_pbqm5Ak9FUMVI8obY3jl4IB5gBpv0rvZE24SJgXdjBbg2OCWWsWYhVZUmK1KaodEiWHSZVMxyPTqMoavU260d-yMzKR4EB-QUiJ0KN_rBEPcAGcTksqjLBgKj6Mi0rYKKB7MPULy7/s977/Table1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The largest Australian wine companies" border="0" data-original-height="387" data-original-width="977" height="127" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiZciULjAt4Lb1U9voUEBqv3u3EyPpCB9SSEmZtyj-NKAqip1gWH8_pbqm5Ak9FUMVI8obY3jl4IB5gBpv0rvZE24SJgXdjBbg2OCWWsWYhVZUmK1KaodEiWHSZVMxyPTqMoavU260d-yMzKR4EB-QUiJ0KN_rBEPcAGcTksqjLBgKj6Mi0rYKKB7MPULy7/w320-h127/Table1.gif" title="The largest Australian wine companies" width="320" /></a></div><br />However, it addition, within Australia there are supermarket conglomerates who are (mostly) inventing wine brands out of thin air. The biggest three collections of these are shown in the second table. Note the massive number of brands (aka “bulk-shipped retailer own-labels”), compared to the first table.<br /><br />Also, note that the Endeavour Group (formerly called Woolworths supermarkets) actually owns a whole series of acquired “independent” liquor retail outlets, including: Dan Murphy’s, BWS, Langton’s, Cellarmasters, Pinnacle Drinks, Jimmy Brings, and Shorty’s Liquor — these retailers may look different on the outside, but they are all pretty much the same in terms of content,<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqWWsMLNfA4PIbslL0uQihPf-anruVC6F1aEU4XTyOlkseaV0foO9H01CVqZsY0IDPeNF28uw_dSU8yR0Rx_68_AXTB4CsQid7HWTnPmhH367b9LWgfs8E8kFYYElEh26EhehROpnoXBm0aHwrXv0K8r3T7v7bdbIm_wTRuevbIQARkIu_DpMXTNTKfkrD/s975/Table2.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The Australian supermarket brands" border="0" data-original-height="277" data-original-width="975" height="91" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqWWsMLNfA4PIbslL0uQihPf-anruVC6F1aEU4XTyOlkseaV0foO9H01CVqZsY0IDPeNF28uw_dSU8yR0Rx_68_AXTB4CsQid7HWTnPmhH367b9LWgfs8E8kFYYElEh26EhehROpnoXBm0aHwrXv0K8r3T7v7bdbIm_wTRuevbIQARkIu_DpMXTNTKfkrD/w320-h91/Table2.gif" title="The Australian supermarket brands" width="320" /></a></div><br />So, four times as many brands are marketed in Australia by large supermarkets than are marketed by large wine companies. Indeed, back in 2016, Tyson Stelzer (<a href="https://www.wineselectors.com.au/selector-magazine/wine/who-makes-my-wine" target="_blank">Who makes my wine?</a>) noted that:<br /><blockquote>The growth in supermarket “Buyer’s Own Brand” wines in Australia has been substantial, estimated to have mushroomed from five percent a decade ago to between 16 and 25 percent of the market today. </blockquote>Do any other countries market wine in this manner? We are told that US-style marketing is being adopted elsewhere (<a href="https://www.barrons.com/news/french-winemakers-adopt-us-style-marketing-to-halt-falling-sales-31ba228a" target="_blank">French winemakers adopt US-style marketing to halt falling sales</a>), and this consists of: “In Anglo-Saxon countries, they ask what the consumer wants first.” However, trying to market the Australian supermarket wines elsewhere is not a viable proposition (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/markets/australian-wine-crisis-heres-why" target="_blank">Australian wine is in crisis — here’s why</a>).<br /><br />Mind you, the increase in size of the Australian wine conglomerations is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, as it also will for the other world mega-companies (<a href="https://www.marketwatchmag.com/consolidation-moves/" target="_blank">Consolidation moves</a>):<br /><blockquote>Consolidation is nothing new for the wine industry, but the pace of change has accelerated in recent years as interest rates have risen, costs of labor and supplies have jumped, and demand for wine has softened.</blockquote>Treasury Wine Estates, for example, is buying a substantial vineyard area in New Zealand (<a href="https://www.therealreview.com/2023/12/11/treasurys-new-zealand-vineyard-expansion/" target="_blank">Treasury’s New Zealand vineyard expansion</a>); and it has recently made United States acquisitions (<a href="https://www.just-drinks.com/newsletters/the-10-most-important-ma-deals-in-drinks-in-2023/" target="_blank">The 10 most important M&A deals in drinks in 2023</a>) — these are intended to “strengthen its global portfolio”.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7Tf1hOf-nTS2YYZveia8jTLnRu8W7GvYcNKauWOhBZPTVL7ckP6Tq4jl-ka5QXK4ASfmk2lY7zgHANqhDeczsLbSAO5gbe2WhOND75swkwf_8ENw4qy0DXIpkz56QAcB_zhwpQ2RCUGAhCfobG2crGNuzpmVgVeDugWkKXfsCP1MctroFLgfu3EmpWEP/s1568/original_front_page.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The original site's front page" border="0" data-original-height="746" data-original-width="1568" height="190" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJ7Tf1hOf-nTS2YYZveia8jTLnRu8W7GvYcNKauWOhBZPTVL7ckP6Tq4jl-ka5QXK4ASfmk2lY7zgHANqhDeczsLbSAO5gbe2WhOND75swkwf_8ENw4qy0DXIpkz56QAcB_zhwpQ2RCUGAhCfobG2crGNuzpmVgVeDugWkKXfsCP1MctroFLgfu3EmpWEP/w400-h190/original_front_page.gif" title="The original site's front page" width="400" /></a></div><br /><b>Note:</b><br />The Real Review site listed above is a large update of the original <a href="https://whomakesmywine.com.au/" target="_blank">Who makes my wine?</a> site (pictured here). It first appeared in the <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20230000000000*/https://whomakesmywine.com.au/" target="_blank">Wayback Machine</a> on November 28, 2010. It listed “100 or so” wines for Coles and Woolworths supermarkets. It was archived last on October 4, 2015, but was gone from the web by January 10, 2016. The domain was later resurrected, and it was first archived by the Wayback Machine on February 26, 2021. I last accessed it in December 2023, when 81 brands were listed. For each wine, it has a pretty good description of the Australian Wine Regions.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-72435313288486637642023-12-18T00:30:00.093+01:002023-12-18T18:33:27.657+01:00The ethics of presenting the wine industryEthics in the wine industry is a continual topic, as a quick perusal of any wine industry news-site will show you (eg. <a href="https://www.wineindustryinsight.com/" target="_blank">Wine Industry Insight</a>). It usually involves questioning the (lack of?) ethics of some (many?) people in the industry (especially with regard to tax compliance!). How big a difference is there between evading the law and breaking it?<br /><br />I have not written much about wine-industry ethics in this blog. This is not from a lack of interest in the topic, but for lack of anything much to say that might be a bit different from any other wine blogger. However, a couple of events recently have changed that. So, here we go.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp7Zmw0Hk606_lSSCraKDB42IL-5hsvSlt6OCGqUwlebfz-YC7TM24Rc1fk-iD923ImFh6yfwYOZ2jwsU7JMH7oKWGr-Up-9l2xT7MBJN-m-EzZimT5SsPYED6Vr8WkJLJ0MXW1nWb0RCOTBOUQJ9CPSwzo6VIW66n3wkfXaP4w2aQPUGW5rez2NpBkJaK/s1020/SAfr_buffalo.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="David and Buffalo" border="0" data-original-height="583" data-original-width="1020" height="183" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhp7Zmw0Hk606_lSSCraKDB42IL-5hsvSlt6OCGqUwlebfz-YC7TM24Rc1fk-iD923ImFh6yfwYOZ2jwsU7JMH7oKWGr-Up-9l2xT7MBJN-m-EzZimT5SsPYED6Vr8WkJLJ0MXW1nWb0RCOTBOUQJ9CPSwzo6VIW66n3wkfXaP4w2aQPUGW5rez2NpBkJaK/w320-h183/SAfr_buffalo.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />First, I was sent an email (thanks <a href="https://www.winebusiness.com/search/?q=john%20stallcup&sort=document-date" target="_blank">John Stallcup</a>) drawing my attention to the blog of Scott Galloway (<a href="https://www.profgalloway.com/" target="_blank">No Mercy / No Malice</a>), and specifically the post on <a href="https://www.profgalloway.com/firewater/" target="_blank">Firewater</a>. You should check it out, as it is both interesting and very well written. The author does not shy away from ethics, or any other topic.<br /><br />The second thing is that I finally made it to South Africa (see the photo above). This was fascinating, especially for me as a biologist — the plants and animals are unique, and it was great to see them <i>in situ</i>; and the landscape reminds me very much of my homeland (Australia). Moreover, my wife’s parents long ago worked for Svenskakyrkan (the Church of Sweden) as school teachers for the black children of what was then called Rhodesia. So, South Africa is pretty close to her original homeland, too.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqzJbd5sSDveJUjS0mSIeTS5zB9oFcYZkpZoRwa2GRp1w0rsEMwLTcHDPHMAAQLIHvOTsWX2tHi5RDQl0kwBNHN6PA9AG5rfhICsNXnrU4FQTeluqRvJc7lFpqrwR0eZY7dmPtOKAQnKefYFundT_Lo_vxdS_F7vDGbadnLwwTAy8axbG3ustADzi8HSaf/s4080/SAvineyard.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="South African vineyard" border="0" data-original-height="1968" data-original-width="4080" height="154" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgqzJbd5sSDveJUjS0mSIeTS5zB9oFcYZkpZoRwa2GRp1w0rsEMwLTcHDPHMAAQLIHvOTsWX2tHi5RDQl0kwBNHN6PA9AG5rfhICsNXnrU4FQTeluqRvJc7lFpqrwR0eZY7dmPtOKAQnKefYFundT_Lo_vxdS_F7vDGbadnLwwTAy8axbG3ustADzi8HSaf/w320-h154/SAvineyard.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />What does this have to do with the wine industry? That is simple, because I have now been to wine-lands on several continents (Australia, North America, Europe, South America); and their contrast with South Africa is, in one particular way, stark.<br /><br />Vineyards in Australia, for example, are nested among the bushland (as we call it), so that the backdrop is often native eucalypt trees, etc. Vineyards in northern Europe, for example, are spread along romantic rivers with scattered medieval villages. These sorts of things are part of the image that the wine industry tries to promulgate for itself; and by and large it is accurate.<br /><br />However, it would be just as accurate to note, for example, that the European villages were once the home-land of abject poverty; the Middle Ages were not a time to be a poor serf — servile life was no fun, and death at a young age was rampant. The Plague (or Black Death) was not something that was easy to live through. However, we do not see any of that in the modern world, so that wine tourists can focus on the romance. Focus on enjoyment, and the quality of life, is important.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6bg209yfDYwHLWjGWZw2h690468YND_ne8X1cKQ6NUad9FbFY2nLyWCbfLEIp2mQSBO8oviRHJqilg5RsDhFsgPZnAfif0abKyYdwJ16HyiMwfDPFgQn-nejTlmF9NvHQyDdK7NnUs89qpelZk8p1XhxfIhezpO1dD3F03F6uHa2l54D36aJoresLALym/s4080/Khayelitsha_vineyard.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Khayelitsha and vineyard" border="0" data-original-height="2092" data-original-width="4080" height="164" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6bg209yfDYwHLWjGWZw2h690468YND_ne8X1cKQ6NUad9FbFY2nLyWCbfLEIp2mQSBO8oviRHJqilg5RsDhFsgPZnAfif0abKyYdwJ16HyiMwfDPFgQn-nejTlmF9NvHQyDdK7NnUs89qpelZk8p1XhxfIhezpO1dD3F03F6uHa2l54D36aJoresLALym/s320/Khayelitsha_vineyard.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />South Africa, in some ways, is another matter. Sure, there are vineyard regions that are very familiar to me from growing up in Australia, in both look and feel (although the eucalypt trees growing there are not native, but were introduced by Europeans). However, by contrast there are the vineyards around Cape Town. The massive shanty town (as an Australian would call it) south-east of Cape Town was a great shock to my bus-load of middle-class Swedish tourists. The contrast with the Kruger National Park (lions, elephants, giraffes, buffalo, etc), and the lower-middle-class servers in the tourist industry, was stark. Everyone on the bus noticed, and everyone expressed concern. Our guide, on the other hand, kept the same neutral tone as he had throughout the trip, while he explained what the government was doing about it, and planning to do.<br /><br />These slums (named Khayelitsha) are possibly the third largest in the world (<a href="https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2019-09-04/the-worlds-largest-slums" target="_blank">8 cities with the world’s largest slums</a>), with perhaps one million residents. They are not the only slums in South Africa (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_slums_in_South_Africa" target="_blank">List of slums in South Africa</a>), but probably a third of Cape Town's 3.7 million residents live in its slums (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-safrica-slums-upgrading-idUSKBN1431PO/" target="_blank">The tale of two slums in South Africa</a>). As you can imagine, <a href="https://worldadventurists.com/life-in-south-african-shanty-towns/" target="_blank">Life in South African shanty towns</a> is not easy.<br /><br />The point here is that some of the vineyards of Cape Town are right next to this enormous shanty town, as shown in the photo above, and on the Google Map below (Khayelitsha is outlined, and one of the nearby vineyards is named). One cannot miss the contrast, when you are there. However you don’t see it in any of the wine-industry photos (see the second photo above).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNSiIQ4qJIcISpQrnpSn52UHS7X2WoSiSKYQyv-KWuw0Ga5dfTCYuD2spPqGCFq8jWEgluEVoNFT_atZoJMjhm9v8D_JkPMIZ9_HmHH0J12JPMrF-x9Dcp8SMtyzyhYNArCsEUvNm3z9bayWQE87uwoDNqAUDe1trlbb52pqXKt9MGMzF8clMdMlheeiZF/s2323/Khayelitsha.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Khayelitsha, CapeTown" border="0" data-original-height="1673" data-original-width="2323" height="230" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgNSiIQ4qJIcISpQrnpSn52UHS7X2WoSiSKYQyv-KWuw0Ga5dfTCYuD2spPqGCFq8jWEgluEVoNFT_atZoJMjhm9v8D_JkPMIZ9_HmHH0J12JPMrF-x9Dcp8SMtyzyhYNArCsEUvNm3z9bayWQE87uwoDNqAUDe1trlbb52pqXKt9MGMzF8clMdMlheeiZF/s320/Khayelitsha.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="320" /></a></div><br />For me, the wine industry and vineyards will never be the same again. I can no longer look at a village on the Rhine River, nested among the vineyards, without seeing life as it was in the Middle Ages, when the villages came into being. I ask myself: how ethical is it to only ever show the romance? The ethics of only showing this is one of omission, not commission — no-one is faking anything, but they sure as hell are leaving some things out.<br /><br />I am also reminded of another much simpler, but equally notable, part of my own recent history. On 7 November 2023 it was 150 years since the Swedish parliament decided to formally allow women to attend the country’s universities, and this was duly noted in my local newspaper here in Uppsala. This historical event was way ahead of what happened in most other countries, which is a very positive aspect that Swedes are proud of. However, we should not ignore the fact that Sweden has some of the oldest universities in the world, with Uppsala University founded way back in 1477 and Lund University in 1666 (although it traces its roots back to 1425). So, which do we focus on — the later 150 years (with women) or the first 400 years (without women)? My argument is that, ethically, we should see both; but it seems to me that the wine industry would probably not do so.<br /><br />[All of the photos above were taken by Susanne Stenlund.]<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-10325722547914514322023-12-11T00:30:00.090+01:002023-12-11T09:59:06.720+01:00Health and wine, and also Coca WineAs I have noted recently, the wine industry is certainly living in uncertain times, with regard to the health effects of alcohol (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/11/a-scientist-looks-at-alcohol-and-health.html" target="_blank">A scientist looks at alcohol and health, and is concerned</a>). Importantly, as has been noted elsewhere, The World Health Organization is on the case (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/who-shifts-its-alcohol-narratives-and-wine-industry-faces-new-challenges" target="_blank">WHO shifts its alcohol narratives, and the wine industry faces new challenges</a>). In particular, drinking alcohol is now being seen as the same as smoking tobacco (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/11/is-consuming-wine-really-as-unhealthy.html" target="_blank">Is consuming wine really as unhealthy as tobacco?</a>).<br /><br />In response to all of this, I thought that I might cover a few of the more contradictory pieces of information that have been discussed recently. I am no expert in any of these medical discussions, so I will reference some published articles.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRv-GgBMpfY_HDKgwjah-jAyslstTC1qlK8lh4cUC0amK7y_-qbO8JIpjpnd8ehNAVB07LHimug7iyab68hiWyLUIBlrzqe1lC6EPi3BIYVEPNUOI_ia8ii5CpmSIfh0mBCux3rWn7_QC5Ih0YOlUVXgcoserMOupItg9pG38W_heIK-rOMQJSrAB3ON9a/s300/s-l300.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Cocoa wine" border="0" data-original-height="300" data-original-width="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRv-GgBMpfY_HDKgwjah-jAyslstTC1qlK8lh4cUC0amK7y_-qbO8JIpjpnd8ehNAVB07LHimug7iyab68hiWyLUIBlrzqe1lC6EPi3BIYVEPNUOI_ia8ii5CpmSIfh0mBCux3rWn7_QC5Ih0YOlUVXgcoserMOupItg9pG38W_heIK-rOMQJSrAB3ON9a/s16000/s-l300.gif" /></a></div><br />However, we should start with the wine industry itself. As Tom Wark has noted (<a href="https://tomwark.substack.com/p/bringing-the-2024-wine-industry-into" target="_blank">Bringing the 2024 wine industry into focus</a>):<br /><blockquote>It appears that the wine industry is just now coming around to the idea that there are some very powerful forces working to diminish the sale of wine, in the service of improving the health of the U.S. population. At the heart of this effort is the notion that there is no safe level of alcohol consumption — a message that is being promulgated by the World Health Organization.</blockquote>This is serious, because the WHO carries a lot of weight. But is the WHO right in their assessment? Tom thinks not — consider this:<br /><blockquote>Most recently, WHO called for significantly increased taxes on alcohol, including wine, saying that “taxes that increase alcohol prices by 50% would help avert over 21 million deaths over 50 years and generate nearly US$17 trillion in additional revenues. This is equivalent to the total government revenue of eight of the world's largest economies in one year.”</blockquote>Extreme indeed! Tom’s response is:<br /><blockquote>The American wine industry must fight this effort to demonize wine, and my sources tell me that there is in fact an effort to do just this. That effort should get off the ground in 2024.</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-pREvc5BUKqLAkzbaFRWW5OC4Ks0muSdOnfEgs_393r_ZrUzXcgKagb2DfAkt0XxeQFPaR1YcBYzQraJvQ_11nBV7MtKy1pS0WLTgOskHR_FkV2QmEyotRP83J5s6uCRk3yhkq3bZ00KgZp9X6PsCMNNfBvxDmNYcuLXq8o41lLP1BLXHliFRWL6QQW1u/s1000/Halls.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Hall's Coca Wine" border="0" data-original-height="1000" data-original-width="667" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg-pREvc5BUKqLAkzbaFRWW5OC4Ks0muSdOnfEgs_393r_ZrUzXcgKagb2DfAkt0XxeQFPaR1YcBYzQraJvQ_11nBV7MtKy1pS0WLTgOskHR_FkV2QmEyotRP83J5s6uCRk3yhkq3bZ00KgZp9X6PsCMNNfBvxDmNYcuLXq8o41lLP1BLXHliFRWL6QQW1u/w213-h320/Halls.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="213" /></a></div><br />In the meantime, let’s start with this study reported in June (and published in the <i>Journal of the American College of Cardiology</i>): <a href="https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2023/06/is-drinking-in-moderation-good-for-your-heart/" target="_blank">More evidence moderate drinking is good for your heart. Also: a reason</a>.<br /><blockquote>For the first time, researchers found that alcohol, in light to moderate quantities, was associated with long-term reductions in stress signaling in the brain. This impact appeared to significantly account for the reductions in heart disease risk seen in light to moderate drinkers participating in the study.</blockquote><blockquote>Previous epidemiological studies have suggested that light to moderate alcohol consumption (one drink per day for women and one to two drinks per day for men) is associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease.</blockquote><blockquote>Yet while light/moderate drinkers lowered their risk for cardiovascular disease, the study also showed that any amount of alcohol increases the risk of cancer. And at higher amounts of alcohol consumption — more than 14 drinks a week — heart attack risk started to increase while overall brain activity started to decrease (which may be associated with adverse cognitive health).</blockquote><p>Continuing along the same line, also in June (and published in the <i>Nutrients Journal</i>): <a href="https://www.news-medical.net/news/20230620/Study-reveals-that-wine-consumption-has-an-inverse-relationship-to-cardiovascular-health.aspx" target="_blank">Study reveals that wine consumption has an inverse relationship to cardiovascular health</a> </p><p></p><blockquote>In a recent study, researchers aimed to understand the association between wine consumption and cardiovascular mortality, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and coronary heart disease (CHD).</blockquote><blockquote>The researchers performed a systematic review and meta-analysis using longitudinal studies, including cohort and case-control studies retrieved from multiple databases, which they searched from their inception to March 2023.</blockquote><blockquote>This current review and meta-analysis added to the previous evidence of an inverse association between the consumption of wine and three cardiovascular events evaluated in this study.</blockquote>In contrast, there was this report in June (and published in <i>Calcified Tissue International</i>): <a href="https://theconversation.com/heavy-drinking-linked-to-lower-muscle-mass-heres-what-you-need-to-know-206550" target="_blank">Heavy drinking linked to lower muscle mass — here’s what you need to know</a><br /><blockquote>Heavy drinking has long been associated with various health problems, including cirrhosis of the liver, cancer and heart disease. But our latest study has found that these aren’t the only issues that excess drinking can cause. We found that heavy drinkers had lower levels of muscle mass than those who didn’t drink, or drank moderately. </blockquote><blockquote>Overall, people had lower amounts of muscle the more that they drank. This effect happened after about one unit of alcohol a day for men (just under a small glass of wine) and just under two units for women (the equivalent of a pint of lager).</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjukjf2tC1RkQdGWvgMWU4oka3N4OoZCsoeqdVvpaFy_QJfQXRlwE0Q5Cd57bmezz_kAk5rkgop-9o-NyQBW1DipbLMZfuUgQEasrG5kGn7Ab-pfib0xB2BRmNr4YfTKT5x3YnINdjOrgwxWWWB9b8pQlqfYpbh4U2A4uNMgQK9NEyIpyJrxWzdcLqybI9G/s1369/Metcalfs.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Metcalf's Coca Wine" border="0" data-original-height="1369" data-original-width="920" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjukjf2tC1RkQdGWvgMWU4oka3N4OoZCsoeqdVvpaFy_QJfQXRlwE0Q5Cd57bmezz_kAk5rkgop-9o-NyQBW1DipbLMZfuUgQEasrG5kGn7Ab-pfib0xB2BRmNr4YfTKT5x3YnINdjOrgwxWWWB9b8pQlqfYpbh4U2A4uNMgQK9NEyIpyJrxWzdcLqybI9G/w215-h320/Metcalfs.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="215" /></a></div><br />Wine can, of course, be made from many sources, not just grapevines. One that was once popular was coca (from the plant <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erythroxylum" target="_blank">Erythroxylum coca</a>), back in the 1800s (<a href="https://blog.medfriendly.com/2012/07/medical-history-of-coca-cola-you-never.html" target="_blank">The medical history of Coca-Cola you never knew</a>). So, on this page are advertisements for some of the better-known Coca Wines of yesteryear. There was also the milder Coca Tea, and the much less mild Cocaine.<br /><p></p>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-43913481458073045712023-12-04T00:30:00.015+01:002023-12-10T20:25:02.362+01:00The oldest known vines, and an interview with myself<b>Digressive Preamble</b><br /><br />Recently, I did an audio interview for <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-492543397" target="_blank">The Wonderful World of Wine</a> (WWW). This show is hosted by Mark Lenzi And Kim Simone, and “explores all things wine with you: trends, news, education, and so much more.” You should check it out.<br /><br />Episode 249 of their series is the interview with:<br /><blockquote>David Morrison, who is a data expert in the world of wine and has been passionately writing about it for years, garnering a large following of wine enthusiasts around the globe. With his extensive knowledge and unique perspective, David has become a trusted authority in the wine data industry.</blockquote><p>Sounds good to me! The interview recording can be found on their <a href="https://soundcloud.com/user-492543397/episode-249-david-morrison-the-wine-gourd-blog-interview" target="_blank">SoundCloud</a> channel, and on their <a href="https://youtu.be/1vjZZ3-2LZE" target="_blank">Youtube</a> channel.</p><p></p><p>This follows the interview I did a year ago with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/@WineForNormalPeople" target="_blank">Wine For Normal People</a>, episode 424 on <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4EcknuE1Dlg" target="_blank">Youtube</a>.<br /><br /></p><hr /><br /><b>Oldest recorded vines and vineyards</b><br /><br />At roughly the same time as this interview, I also did an online presentation for the <a href="https://www.oldvines.org/" target="_blank">Old Vine Conference</a>. According to the conference agenda, David covered: “how he used the old vine registry to analyse the distribution of old vineyards around the world, and created some charts.”<br /><br />On The Wine Gourd blog, I covered a lot of this material in two earlier posts:<br /><div style="margin-left: 40px; text-align: left;"><ul><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/08/where-in-world-are-oldest-vineyards-and.html" target="_blank">Where in the world are the oldest vineyards and wineries?</a></li><li><a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/08/which-countries-have-most-of-oldest.html" target="_blank">Which countries have most of the oldest vineyards?</a></li></ul></div><div>However, there were some things that did not appear in those posts, and I cover some of this information here.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4Lg4L6o1xtGxWh3CWlFGobW4jUaOB2ouMgkpqTKAknMgFTcsVhxsFRfcfcSHKTB891FH8cs7dhFpkjRUISHXaYLdN9cJRY38J05b59oljVy9RBTL-X5drLJLmGLp-xa8y3dI1wNEQptpnsCimNaj2aSmu44jgW9Rhhwh108MgGMF0oPB0q8RdVGvilc4h/s1920/Slovenia.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The old vine from Slovenia" border="0" data-original-height="1060" data-original-width="1920" height="177" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4Lg4L6o1xtGxWh3CWlFGobW4jUaOB2ouMgkpqTKAknMgFTcsVhxsFRfcfcSHKTB891FH8cs7dhFpkjRUISHXaYLdN9cJRY38J05b59oljVy9RBTL-X5drLJLmGLp-xa8y3dI1wNEQptpnsCimNaj2aSmu44jgW9Rhhwh108MgGMF0oPB0q8RdVGvilc4h/w320-h177/Slovenia.gif" title="The old vine from Slovenia" width="320" /></a></div><br />Many of you will have encountered <a href="http://oldvineregistry.org/" target="_blank">The Old Vine Registry</a> recently, which is an ambitious plan to catalogue the world’s oldest vines as a fully searchable and updatable online database. It officially launched on June 28 2023 (<a href="https://www.jancisrobinson.com/articles/old-vine-registry-launched" target="_blank">Old Vine Registry launched</a>), as: “the world’s first crowd-sourced global database of living historic vineyard sites.” Its goal is: “to create the world’s most authoritative record of these vineyards in the hopes that, through greater awareness and attention, these vineyards and the wines they produce will survive and thrive.”<br /><br />There have been a number of web sites introducing the concept, but the best of them is by one of the participants, Alder Yarrow (Vinography Wine Blog): <a href="https://www.vinography.com/2023/06/introducing-the-old-vine-registry" target="_blank">Introducing the Old Vine Registry</a>. You should read this if you have not already done so. <br /><br />There is no legal or generally agreed definition for “old” (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_vine" target="_blank">Old vine</a>), but the <a href="https://www.oldvines.org/" target="_blank">Old Vine Conference</a> uses a minimum vine age of 35 years. So, the Registry notes that: “Vineyards that have been left to grow and thrive beyond that 35-year mark can officially be considered old.” Yarrow observes that: “We have about 2,200 records of old vine vineyards … There should be another 10,000 from around the world added by the time we’re done.”<br /><br />On this age basis, most of the current data come from Portugal (822 recorded vineyards), followed by Spain (383), the United States (334), Australia (208), and France (142).<br /><br />However, here I am going to be more strict than this. Below, I have summarized those records for vines that are at least 125 years old. There are currently 150 such records, which may be more than you expected, even globally. The oldest recorded vineyard is c. 600 years old (in Germany), with another three at c. 450 (Georgia, Germany, Slovenia), and one at 350 years (Italy).<br /><br />The full collection of vine ages (>125) is shown in this graph. This is pretty impressive, of course; but we should note that there are actually 34 known trees with verified ages that are more than twice that of the oldest grapevine (ie. 1,200+ years) (<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oldest_trees" target="_blank">List of oldest trees</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw0Opk2n5TklPQByibsSuWZbpEjTRFNlHyX6DaFusat5zfBBCoLkSQoNK29K3G7tkzHMd_EC2JUmrRkw_LzYNxQGHHx1NpR10C358_nonyOZv1fJ4OV9janLaz7R1__VOujJtwTpeIzhEehVQNyyViH9k7yS13W7fYcVljnW-NZT-UlV-PfiX1uNp1GgvS/s1478/Graph.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Graph of all vines older than 125 years" border="0" data-original-height="879" data-original-width="1478" height="238" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw0Opk2n5TklPQByibsSuWZbpEjTRFNlHyX6DaFusat5zfBBCoLkSQoNK29K3G7tkzHMd_EC2JUmrRkw_LzYNxQGHHx1NpR10C358_nonyOZv1fJ4OV9janLaz7R1__VOujJtwTpeIzhEehVQNyyViH9k7yS13W7fYcVljnW-NZT-UlV-PfiX1uNp1GgvS/w400-h238/Graph.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />We can also look at which countries these oldest vines come from. Here is a table listing the vineyard count for each of the relevant countries.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGL06joaHkAXtfGRg_pJNOTDM_vAcD7IDefU2IoxdO04uAcOp26r-soSDyWj7-eaxSmyXBJLmKWi2FEHHTeli0pcD-jLr4PvXprmFhjX5wM2TyJuEHaO5KWyu3Ohsf3YqxPrnhCuYvh-fUTW5LEbSCoJqBe12vofigns35jhLsDu-wRazWZj8bfeoD0v5/s838/World_table.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="World distribution of oldest grapevines" border="0" data-original-height="838" data-original-width="387" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjGGL06joaHkAXtfGRg_pJNOTDM_vAcD7IDefU2IoxdO04uAcOp26r-soSDyWj7-eaxSmyXBJLmKWi2FEHHTeli0pcD-jLr4PvXprmFhjX5wM2TyJuEHaO5KWyu3Ohsf3YqxPrnhCuYvh-fUTW5LEbSCoJqBe12vofigns35jhLsDu-wRazWZj8bfeoD0v5/w148-h320/World_table.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="148" /></a></div><br />Note that 32% of these vines are in the United States of America, and 19% are in Australia. The New World outshines the Old World, when it comes to vineyard preservation! Not unexpectedly, all of the USA vineyards are in California. Here is a list of the vineyard count for each of the relevant counties. Note that 50% are in Sonoma county.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihf524jMXrE5CAAw34q4vTs_Bznp3CuQ05EZX2zYXwN6zeiBJTcFHliezND-OkqgqyzLMM2ql7SJiFFpmLeM3DDZnm-tvjL9c8crawAqyKY9kNSzRcqgcoPpc67Zw5JDDcEI47lvngPftEdjHFmOrIWuJrV6bPshiTHW-ChJEhICMHxWwkDke2nI1Ptcjw/s363/Calif_table.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="California distribution og oldest vineayrds" border="0" data-original-height="325" data-original-width="363" height="179" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEihf524jMXrE5CAAw34q4vTs_Bznp3CuQ05EZX2zYXwN6zeiBJTcFHliezND-OkqgqyzLMM2ql7SJiFFpmLeM3DDZnm-tvjL9c8crawAqyKY9kNSzRcqgcoPpc67Zw5JDDcEI47lvngPftEdjHFmOrIWuJrV6bPshiTHW-ChJEhICMHxWwkDke2nI1Ptcjw/w200-h179/Calif_table.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="200" /></a></div><br />Old vines (and their vineyards) have interest both for their contribution to agricultural history and biodiversity; but they do also have other more immediate practical uses for the wine industry. For example, Enrico Marcolungo (store manager, Shrine to the Vine) sees old vines as being “one of the most effective marketing tools” there is at the moment. “It definitely adds interest to the conversation when you are recommending wine” (<a href="https://www.the-buyer.net/insight/wynns-coonawarra-estate-debate-uk-wine-buyers/" target="_blank">Wynns debate: Buyers on Coonawarra’s premium potential</a>). Try it for yourself.<br /></div>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-14993567337082932002023-11-27T00:30:00.295+01:002023-11-27T20:20:26.009+01:00Is consuming wine really as unhealthy as tobacco?The answer to that question that is currently being pushed by several lobby groups is: “yes”. I am not at all convinced by this answer, for several reasons that I will discuss in this post. (I am apparently not alone in this view: <a href="https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2023/11/22/expert-editorial-why-is-moderate-wine-consumption-being-villainized-in-2023" target="_blank">Why is moderate wine consumption being villainized in 2023?</a>).<br /><br />The main issue for me is that we are dealing with public health — that is, groups of people, rather than individuals. The claim is that wine is unhealthy for people as a whole. By contrast, one of the medical centers that I occasionally deal with, has as part of its stated Vision: we improve public health — one individual at a time (Swedish: förbättrar vi folkhälsan — en individ i taget). The current official medical pressure seems to be the opposite approach, for alcohol in general (<a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/who-shifts-its-alcohol-narratives-and-wine-industry-faces-new-challenges" target="_blank">WHO shifts its alcohol narratives, and the wine industry faces new challenges</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsaZC2kTTWiywXsLaC2IqwMapMJvcpRDcgP43T2QJpVYy9HD-UJ_ViKMFGUaggz5oi5wX8UQi4xgeiFXm9TETCLXnNRgDnscELvYCM80Fr1gPZLXkWjzPdGBMiw_tlT9cbOPu1nakheozY-UnS7kADEGEhk8tMt2Lbd_HlB1Z17ygt4ZLGUG6DkINE4OcQ/s2009/shop.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Tobacco and wine shop" border="0" data-original-height="927" data-original-width="2009" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjsaZC2kTTWiywXsLaC2IqwMapMJvcpRDcgP43T2QJpVYy9HD-UJ_ViKMFGUaggz5oi5wX8UQi4xgeiFXm9TETCLXnNRgDnscELvYCM80Fr1gPZLXkWjzPdGBMiw_tlT9cbOPu1nakheozY-UnS7kADEGEhk8tMt2Lbd_HlB1Z17ygt4ZLGUG6DkINE4OcQ/w320-h148/shop.gif" title="Tobacco and wine shop" width="320" /></a></div><br />Put simply, human health is a standard cost-benefit analysis. That is, for any given situation we explicitly lay out both the benefits and the costs, for everyone to be able to see and evaluate. We then compare those costs and benefits, to see how they balance each other. If the costs out-weigh the benefits then we would be best to change the situation; and if it is the other way around then we might leave things as they are. (As a practical example, see: <a href="https://www.growingproduce.com/crop-protection/ag-groups-cheer-courts-defense-in-science-based-regulation-of-chlorpyrifos/" target="_blank">Ag groups cheer court’s defense in science-based regulation of chlorpyrifos</a>.)<br /><br />Here is a simple cost-benefit analysis of the personal consumption of wine and tobacco.<br />
<table align="center" border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="5">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="top">
<b>Health</b><br />
<br />
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">
<b>Benefits</b><br />
<br />
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">
<b>Costs</b><br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="top">
<b>Smoking tobacco</b><br />
<br />
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">
• few, except stress relief<br />
<br />
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">
• lung cancer causing mortality<br />
• costs for people within breathing distance<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td align="center" valign="top">
<b>Drinking wine</b><br />
<br />
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">
• J-curve of personal health: low consumption reduces risks<br />
• social interactions (since we don't drink alone)<br />
</td>
<td align="center" valign="top">
• J-curve of personal health: high consumption increases risks<br />
• social costs of drunkenness and alcoholism<br />
<br />
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
The J-curve of personal health with regard to wine drinking, referred to in this table, is discussed in my recent post: <a href="https://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/11/a-scientist-looks-at-alcohol-and-health.html" target="_blank">A scientist looks at alcohol and health, and is concerned</a>. Basically, low consumption seems to have somewhat of a health benefit for wine drinking, but increased consumption definitely increases the personal health risks. That is, it is better for your body to drink small amounts regularly rather than to binge drink (<a href="https://www.glamourmagazine.co.uk/article/episodic-drinking-culture-women-uk" target="_blank">‘Wine math’ is trending on TikTok</a>). In particular, people who tend to drink little and often have a longer life expectancy than do those who guzzle or those who abstain (<a href="https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/199398#1" target="_blank">Why do moderate drinkers live longer than abstainers?</a>).<br /><br />There seems to be very little basis here for directly comparing smoking and drinking in terms of health costs and benefits. Mind you, <a href="https://www.winespectator.com/articles/no-american-alcohol-czar-is-trying-to-limit-drinking-here-is-the-truth" target="_blank">George F. Koob</a> (director of the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism) has suggested that: “recent research finds the health risks of alcohol outweigh any benefits.” For example, one reason for the J-curve is that alcohol seems to be protective against cardiovascular disease, while at the same time increasing the risk of death by other means, such as cancers and accidents (<a href="https://www.euractiv.com/section/diabetes-cancer-hepatitis/news/who-lobbies-eu-lawmakers-over-watering-down-alcohol-cancer-risk/" target="_blank">WHO lobbies EU lawmakers against watering down alcohol cancer risk</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqN8I2-Z-wzOK3q1XxbVVIeb8YQHB3oMFlv5xJ-IMQWYo0MkBWd3FLIQIMz6vugKpuSrea7jUDsGX-lS8r0KJLDvrYfg2PzbpZhpia7t2YTrNx2M0Kj94Bpf6xWqBauv5Pki4yfY6NCp1lwQtgcj7eQ-3wkhkG8SadX9jzfh0PJZBiOzpLMgHMkmLgN57g/s1662/sign.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Tobacco and wine sign" border="0" data-original-height="528" data-original-width="1662" height="102" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiqN8I2-Z-wzOK3q1XxbVVIeb8YQHB3oMFlv5xJ-IMQWYo0MkBWd3FLIQIMz6vugKpuSrea7jUDsGX-lS8r0KJLDvrYfg2PzbpZhpia7t2YTrNx2M0Kj94Bpf6xWqBauv5Pki4yfY6NCp1lwQtgcj7eQ-3wkhkG8SadX9jzfh0PJZBiOzpLMgHMkmLgN57g/w320-h102/sign.gif" title="Tobacco and wine sign" width="320" /></a></div><br />Nevertheless, smoking was banned in public because of a direct effect on humans even at low levels, and also on people nearby the smoker (chewing tobacco was excepted); * no such effect is know for low levels of alcohol consumption. Furthermore, given the social nature of wine drinking, the idea that banning it would have a good cost-benefit analysis is unlikely.<br /><br />This has not stopped an increasing level of discussion, both ways (summarized in: <a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/culture/non-alcoholic/alcohol-smoking-debate/" target="_blank">Is alcohol the new tobacco?</a>). Indeed, there have even been suggestions that the anti-alcohol lobby is taking us back in time (<a href="https://winemag.co.za/wine/opinion/jamie-goode-how-much-of-a-threat-is-the-new-prohibitionist-movement/" target="_blank">How much of a threat is the New Prohibitionist Movement?</a>). These discussions are definitely worth reading. One outcome of interest is that a move towards healthier lifestyles by younger people is reducing alcohol consumption (<a href="https://health.clevelandclinic.org/why-gen-z-is-drinking-less/" target="_blank">Is Generation Z drinking less?</a>), although apparently not in India (<a href="https://www.theiwsr.com/how-do-you-tackle-the-indian-beverage-alcohol-market/" target="_blank">How do you tackle the Indian beverage alcohol market?</a>).<br /><br />Even wine label warnings should not be as dire as those for smoking. Nevertheless, some sort of label warning is probably inevitable for all alcoholic drinks, so wine-makers may need to get used to it (<a href="https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-11-02/wine-industry-concern-over-potential-new-health-labelling/103046076" target="_blank">Concern among winemakers about potential new requirements for alcohol health warnings on bottles</a>), just as they are now doing for other label requirements (<a href="https://www.food-safety.com/articles/9045-new-eu-regulations-for-wine-ingredients-and-nutritional-labeling-come-into-effect-december-8" target="_blank">New EU regulations for wine ingredients and nutritional labeling come into effect December 8</a>). There are, however, potential health-warning issues for all of us (<a href="https://www.winewithourfamily.com/post/anti-alcohol-warnings-affect-consumers" target="_blank">6 ways the new public health anti-alcohol warnings may affect consumers</a>).<br /><br />Associating wine and tobacco has a long history, even in the medical profession. We might, for example, remember <a href="https://www.history.com/news/cigarette-ads-doctors-smoking-endorsement" target="_blank">When cigarette companies used doctors to push smoking</a>. Even the <a href="https://vinepair.com/articles/bollywood-wine-depiction-evolution/" target="_blank">Bollywood movies</a> of India [Hindi cinema, based in Mumbai] associated the two: “a woman drinking wine [in Bollywood movies] was usually a vamp with a glass in one hand and a cigarette in the other, up to devious things.” So, I will end this post with two apt quotes.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-9wAI_oS7Wa_N5toufFWOJmyAA4HJX_hH3-2WFQCkYGiyBToZmz8P1QeMX_-fdOc0ErzQza8fa84XYtycENcE5QIGZoPTgguZAk6VkdjPuKC0q07U20W3BiDdjP7lDOZvnVgYMdbqTjO88DFRsGe3kGP5515EBeiIKYoLccWuUfwJsKqSrSZrYXkK_mPG/s919/vintage-do-not-smoke-sign.png" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="https://onceoccupied.com/trolley-station/vintage-do-not-smoke-sign/" border="0" data-original-height="529" data-original-width="919" height="184" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj-9wAI_oS7Wa_N5toufFWOJmyAA4HJX_hH3-2WFQCkYGiyBToZmz8P1QeMX_-fdOc0ErzQza8fa84XYtycENcE5QIGZoPTgguZAk6VkdjPuKC0q07U20W3BiDdjP7lDOZvnVgYMdbqTjO88DFRsGe3kGP5515EBeiIKYoLccWuUfwJsKqSrSZrYXkK_mPG/w320-h184/vintage-do-not-smoke-sign.png" title="Vintage do-not-smoke sign" width="320" /></a></div><br />First, we have <a href="https://roughlydaily.com/2023/06/07/a-cigarette-is-a-pinch-of-tobacco-rolled-in-paper-with-fire-at-one-end-and-a-fool-at-the-other/" target="_blank">George Bernard Shaw</a>:<br /><blockquote>“A cigarette is a pinch of tobacco rolled in paper, with fire at one end and a fool at the other.”</blockquote>Second, we have <a href="https://tomwark.substack.com/p/the-mondavi-defense" target="_blank">Robert Mondavi</a>:<br /><blockquote>“We believe wine is the temperate, civilized, sacred, romantic mealtime beverage recommended in the Bible. It is a liquid food that has been part of civilization for 8,000 years. Wine has been praised for centuries by statesmen, scholars, poets, and philosophers. It has been used as a religious sacrament, as the primary beverage of choice for food, and as a source of pleasure and diversion. Wine is the natural beverage for every celebration: the birth of a child, graduations, engagements, weddings, anniversaries, promotions, family gatherings, toasts between governments, and other festivities.”</blockquote>
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* Note that vaping is an improvement, but people like me can still smell the tobacco.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-57526735612505275522023-11-20T00:30:00.063+01:002023-11-20T00:30:00.140+01:00The origin and diversification of cultivated grape-vinesI spent my professional life as a biological scientist in universities. I specialized in three areas:<br /><ul><li>fire ecology — the effects of fire (intensity, frequency, season) on the native plants of eastern Australia</li><li>phylogenetics — the long-term evolutionary history of plant species</li><li>phylogenetic data-analysis methods [see my previous blog: <a href="https://phylonetworks.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">The genealogical world of phylogenetic networks</a>].</li></ul>It may therefore seem a bit odd that these are topics that I have rarely written about in this current blog, with respect to the wine industry, although they all apply to some extent.<br /><br />This is not from lack of interest in either the phylogenetics or fire ecology of grape-vines, as I do read all of the literature when it appears. It has more to do with the fact that these are complex topics, from my point of view (e.g. the wildfire effects on the wine industry in California in 2020), and they would need to be simplified considerably if I am going to write about them for the general public (in this blog).<br /><br />Today, however, I am going to try to explain a recent scientific publication about the domestication of grape-vines from their wild progenitors. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17mqwMLqKSsMxpSzrEYH1QOWrDs5H53bb1bVikwsEd1mZuqk9mAbpd1XAoPVz7d-wwJLblAYBlKy7r3e93FfrFO1X1zWQYTG8tRLhs8njAvsaVb8gMJz2Aaf9r2Ld8aXRgwVAPLgKO9dyaynBRgU5evL05d6eAY9_cq-YBXO6j-wpQ96sUZaaCoT0t-Pk/s1785/Egyptian1340BC.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Carving, Egypt 1340 BC" border="0" data-original-height="1154" data-original-width="1785" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg17mqwMLqKSsMxpSzrEYH1QOWrDs5H53bb1bVikwsEd1mZuqk9mAbpd1XAoPVz7d-wwJLblAYBlKy7r3e93FfrFO1X1zWQYTG8tRLhs8njAvsaVb8gMJz2Aaf9r2Ld8aXRgwVAPLgKO9dyaynBRgU5evL05d6eAY9_cq-YBXO6j-wpQ96sUZaaCoT0t-Pk/w200-h129/Egyptian1340BC.gif" title="Egypt 1340 BC" width="200" /></a></div><br />The grape cultivars that we currently use in agriculture are (almost) all considered to be a single species (called <i>Vitis vinifera</i>; one of c. 80 species in the genus <i>Vitis</i>). However, their wild ancestors were grouped into a species that we call <i>Vitis sylvestris</i>. Sounds simple doesn’t it? However, even this is actually complicated, because some people think that there is only one species, with two subspecies (<i>Vitis vinifera</i> ssp. <i>vinifera</i> and <i>Vitis vinifera</i> ssp. <i>sylvestris</i>), rather than two separate species (<i>Vitis vinifera</i> and <i>Vitis sylvestris</i>). Don't get involved in this (technical) argument!<br /><br />Concerning this topic, there was a scientific paper published earlier this year called: <a href="https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.add8655" target="_blank">Dual domestications and origin of traits in grapevine evolution</a>, published in the journal <i>Science</i> vol. 379 pp. 892–901. Just to give you an idea of the complexity of this particular study, there are 89 authors, from around the world. [Can you imagine trying to co-ordinate this number of people, to agree on a single publication?] The reason for this large number is that they collected 3,525 samples of wild and cultivated grape-vines (2,503 <i>V. vinifera</i> and 1,022 <i>V. sylvestris</i>), and looked in detail at the genetic makeup of each one. *<br /><br />From this mass of information, a core collection of 2,448 distinctly different grape-vines (1,604 <i>V. vinifera</i> and 844 <i>V. sylvestris</i>) were studied in more detail. They did this by throwing a whole heap of complicated mathematical analyses at the data (many of which I <b><i>do</i></b> actually understand!), and came up with some conclusions.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLueJ8E-syTAY5GZZpdqoHBOSSFIqMaxTNc-lU9QEELgG1tqmfSmGzeOC8oNvS2IV8JiUfI_hDwwAnb6yLMzxbAQPXqM8NP7SfmWMcyYRLfu4oDQ9LqwHJETsj_odH9KPwks_UZt119U1dpCMdqKMXY3ozo9XsSrZCpyRzuVXOXThwGfm5f9MWbOnP2kXu/s2265/Figure6.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Phylogeny of grape-vines" border="0" data-original-height="1663" data-original-width="2265" height="294" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLueJ8E-syTAY5GZZpdqoHBOSSFIqMaxTNc-lU9QEELgG1tqmfSmGzeOC8oNvS2IV8JiUfI_hDwwAnb6yLMzxbAQPXqM8NP7SfmWMcyYRLfu4oDQ9LqwHJETsj_odH9KPwks_UZt119U1dpCMdqKMXY3ozo9XsSrZCpyRzuVXOXThwGfm5f9MWbOnP2kXu/w400-h294/Figure6.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />They decided that there are four distinctive genetic groups within <i>V. sylvestris</i>, from distinct geographic regions: Western Asia, the Caucasus, Central Europe, and the Iberian Peninsula. The first pair of these groups was designated as the eastern ecotype (Syl-E) and the second pair as the western ecotype (Syl-W).<br /><br />They also decided that there are six distinctive genetic groups within cultivated grape-vines (<i>V. vinifera</i>), generally from: Western Asian table grape-vines (CG1), Caucasian wine grape-vines (CG2), Muscat grape-vines (CG3), Balkan wine grape-vines (CG4), Iberian wine grape-vines (CG5), and Western European wine grape-vines (CG6). Note the distinction they make between table grapes and wine grapes.<br /><br />The idea, then, is to look at the evolutionary history in terms the splitting and merging of these various genetic groups (4+6 = 10 groups) through time, and the time at which these events occurred — this is called a phylogeny. Their phylogeny is shown in the figure immediately above.<br /><br />I stared at this picture for quite some time, as an expert, and eventually worked out all of what it is saying. [As we scientists like to say: I extracted all of the pertinent information.] However, I challenge you to do the same thing, yourselves; any time you have a few spare hours, have a go!<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQiyuehOWGbUmty5dWwPcmBbIMJLqjiq0dgbpD0RzP-sskWV81xFGwDYnQky0jOOORFWVeh3bcgphaYdwPIGsCOOMqKsTbCBFL_NacdkmAfs73kTXRaR1BBf_0p7j5QdOn-tgSbUtDc9V9fk0FHqHPm7G4VMH6H50Ufb-62ob6UeDqzgshgU5tt7BK4kUt/s1546/Figure3.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Diversification and spread of cultivated grape-vines" border="0" data-original-height="794" data-original-width="1546" height="205" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQiyuehOWGbUmty5dWwPcmBbIMJLqjiq0dgbpD0RzP-sskWV81xFGwDYnQky0jOOORFWVeh3bcgphaYdwPIGsCOOMqKsTbCBFL_NacdkmAfs73kTXRaR1BBf_0p7j5QdOn-tgSbUtDc9V9fk0FHqHPm7G4VMH6H50Ufb-62ob6UeDqzgshgU5tt7BK4kUt/w400-h205/Figure3.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />From your perspective, in trying to understand this, it seems like it will be easier to look at one of their other figures, to work out what the authors concluded about long-term grape-vine history. This is the map shown immediately above, which illustrates the geographic dispersal of the cultivated grape-vine groups.<br /><br />Their actual description of the pattern [with my extra notes] is:<br /><blockquote>“In the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pleistocene" target="_blank">Pleistocene</a> [epoch, 200,000 to 400,000 years ago], harsh climate drove the separation of wild grape ecotypes caused by continuous habitat fragmentation. Then, domestication occurred concurrently about 11,000 years ago in Western Asia and the Caucasus to yield table [labeled CG1] and wine [labeled CG2] grapevines. The Western Asia domesticates dispersed into Europe with early farmers, introgressed [<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introgression" target="_blank">introgression</a> = the transfer of genetic material from one species into the genome of another] with ancient wild western ecotypes, and subsequently diversified along human migration trails into muscat [CG3] and unique western wine grape [CG4—CG6] ancestries by the late <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neolithic" target="_blank">Neolithic</a> [7,000 to 8,000 years ago].”</blockquote>So, there you have it — you will find that this description does actually match the pattern of arrows shown in the map, showing the origin and dispersal of the newly domesticated grape types. **<br /><br />There is, of course, a lot more information in the paper than this. However, this obvious complexity is why I rarely write about such things in this blog.<br /><br /><hr /><br />* They didn’t collect new samples, but instead got them “from a dozen Eurasian germplasm and private collections”, plus previously obtained genomic data.<br /><br />** Note the irony of the geographical location where the diversification starts: the Middle East. This is now the location of the biggest alcohol-related conflict that we have; see Tom Wark’s recent review of <a href="https://tomwark.substack.com/p/wine-and-the-clash-of-civilizations" target="_blank">Wine and the Clash of Civilizations</a>.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-24674186423275386912023-11-13T00:30:00.040+01:002023-11-13T00:30:00.141+01:00A scientist looks at alcohol and health, and is concernedAs a scientist (in my professional life), I am becoming increasingly concerned about the nature of the current attacks by health authorities on alcohol consumption. Indeed, I am personally getting to be thoroughly sick of it.<br /><br />There <i><b>have</b></i> been a number of sensible commentaries in the wine web universe, and I will summarize (and quote) some of them here. Much of the rest of it leaves a lot to be desired, to say the least. Here, I offer a perspective on this.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiq88i-rahpvcf2OvbhD0ZAH2tFQSeJuzxodOw3g-_JDxQt8EiQoUHn2qI_j8P5ifvtGugO8Hnyhq0Ln_-B3q_23HYjdWNfXUxS4ESWthAWee8zAddIK1kMXCl1wW2QQnW_YZ16LsPfqb27_rEfSmpjlsO0N7QNiUpl2VlbFR7wA0OXaBYFBiW0NC63hKI/s141/science.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="81" data-original-width="141" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiiq88i-rahpvcf2OvbhD0ZAH2tFQSeJuzxodOw3g-_JDxQt8EiQoUHn2qI_j8P5ifvtGugO8Hnyhq0Ln_-B3q_23HYjdWNfXUxS4ESWthAWee8zAddIK1kMXCl1wW2QQnW_YZ16LsPfqb27_rEfSmpjlsO0N7QNiUpl2VlbFR7wA0OXaBYFBiW0NC63hKI/s16000/science.gif" /></a></div><br />As a professional scientist, I realized during my working life that the most important thing is to protect yourself from those scientists (fortunately few) who do not themselves have a high standard. After that, things should flow smoothly regarding the accumulation of useful information. The same thing seems to be true in the wine industry.<br /><br />I noted in last week’s post (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/11/it-is-difficult-to-study-effect-on.html" target="_blank">It is difficult to study the effect on children of parental drinking</a>) that many, if not most, medical experiments are simply “correlative surveys”, where we quantify two (or more) things in order to assess the degree to which they are correlated. This is not scientifically the best approach, as it does not demonstrate any causal relationships between the things measured.<br /><br />I have also discussed this topic previously: <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2020/06/wine-and-health-why-is-there-so-much.html" target="_blank">Wine and health — why is there so much argument, pro and con?</a> I have also noted that: <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2023/06/the-alleged-health-benefits-of-wine.html" target="_blank">The alleged health benefits of wine depend on who funded the research</a>. In particular, it is important to note that one needs a big study (lots of people studied) for correlations to work, and yet the bigger is the study then the harder it is to look at the many confounding factors that will be present, which can obscure what we wish to be studying (discussed in <a href="https://www.winespectator.com/articles/debate-over-alcohols-health-effects-grows" target="_blank">Debate over alcohol's health effects grows</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyzjD8PbLvzhsfARoHWDw-2Dlh1xILDxy7RmkBq-9AT3V8BiEQUfLBh61dcY54ebMzYQwi9a_uhnYeFHFZTEn0EwI-6l3XB0Prh3Ljgyxo3-RvWnz-qJ3CoB6VHXby1WoBM_nu0As4X58e-Lt-LTu3-9eeBAFjwKLBYBHJMkrZ-1yHygtZhC_-M8DH00SU/s471/healthy.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="92" data-original-width="471" height="39" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiyzjD8PbLvzhsfARoHWDw-2Dlh1xILDxy7RmkBq-9AT3V8BiEQUfLBh61dcY54ebMzYQwi9a_uhnYeFHFZTEn0EwI-6l3XB0Prh3Ljgyxo3-RvWnz-qJ3CoB6VHXby1WoBM_nu0As4X58e-Lt-LTu3-9eeBAFjwKLBYBHJMkrZ-1yHygtZhC_-M8DH00SU/w200-h39/healthy.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br />Anyway, many of these medical claims are influencing public policy regarding wine consumption. There was a recent meeting in the wine industry to discuss this: <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/wine-and-health-challenging-no-safe-level-claims" target="_blank">Wine and health: Challenging the ‘No safe level’ claims</a>. This topic was summarized as:<br /><blockquote>When wine executives gathered in Toledo, Spain, their mood could be described as “worried”. They had come to the Lifestyle, Diet, Wine & Health Congress to hear what science and medicine have to say about wine and health.<br /> The impetus for the gathering, organised by the Wine Information Council and FINVIN, is a growing concern about public health messaging around alcohol, which has gone from “drink in moderation” to “there is no safe level of alcohol”.<br /> This messaging is already having an impact. A recent Gallup study revealed that 39% of Americans now see consuming alcohol in moderation as unhealthy.<br /> Things are about to get even tougher for the wine sector, as the World Health Organisation (WHO) wants to see more alcohol taxes, more advertising restrictions, and even tighter restrictions on the availability of alcohol — recommendations that are already informing the EU’s policy positions.</blockquote>The argument is, of course, that the health risks of alcohol outweigh any benefits. There are clearly two edges to this sword: the benefits, and the risks. Life, for all of us on a personal level, is a balance between these two things. However, whether there are social benefits and risks is actually a quite separate issue. The latter is an <b>accumulation</b> of individual benefits and risks.<br /><br />How pervasive are the social risks? It has recently been noted (<a href="https://www.winespectator.com/articles/no-american-alcohol-czar-is-trying-to-limit-drinking-here-is-the-truth" target="_blank">The heffalump and the alcohol czar</a>):<blockquote>In 2018, George Koob’s colleagues at the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that a little over 5 percent of American adults engaged in heavy drinking in the past year, 15.5 percent engaged in moderate drinking and 45.7 percent in light drinking; 33.7 percent did not consume alcohol.</blockquote>That does not seem to be too bad, to me.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj5OdhSVFTYTBKf1MMR7xTNlUzuFl9897MWpPMItZcUBRKra-fOq6b1lkcYgOqRCoGoufEpe3wm_X7463O2bXOB8u3x-uLZcLEEpBobD9ZQwerjKz8V7VWUTFlkjIKXIsfSyFbMClOEzxtrLNWQwtOjBBggYkKFTrshc4bNVAfANV11MG1iowV1xA2olK7/s972/j-curve.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="The alcohol J-curve" border="0" data-original-height="906" data-original-width="972" height="298" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgj5OdhSVFTYTBKf1MMR7xTNlUzuFl9897MWpPMItZcUBRKra-fOq6b1lkcYgOqRCoGoufEpe3wm_X7463O2bXOB8u3x-uLZcLEEpBobD9ZQwerjKz8V7VWUTFlkjIKXIsfSyFbMClOEzxtrLNWQwtOjBBggYkKFTrshc4bNVAfANV11MG1iowV1xA2olK7/w320-h298/j-curve.gif" title="The alcohol J-curve" width="320" /></a></div><br />The above picture is from: <a href="https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/health-wellness/article/2144704/health-benefits-moderate-alcohol-consumption-and-how-much" target="_blank">Health benefits of moderate alcohol consumption and how much you should drink: What the experts say</a>. It shows the standard relationship that has been repeatedly shown for the effects of alcohol on individual human health, usually called a J-curve: zero consumption is associated with low health risk (there is always some risk in life!), low alcohol consumption is associated with even lower health risk, and then increased consumption (to moderate and high levels) strongly increases the risks.<br /><br />In other words, a little bit of wine is actually better for you than no wine at all. This has been known for a long time, although it is repeatedly disputed. The disputes come from the fact that it is based on correlative experiments, which, as I discussed above, have limitations.<br /><br />It is also important to emphasize here that there is not a single J-curve that fits the entire human species. The following graph is reproduced from <a href="https://velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2013/11/alcohol-awareness-week-j-curve.html" target="_blank">Alcohol awareness week: The J-Curve</a>, which summarizes the situation very well — many situations in life have different J-curves. Not only do different people have different J-curves, different groups of people do, as well.<br /><br />Therefore, <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/insights/wine-and-health-challenging-no-safe-level-claims" target="_blank">The J-curve isn’t one-size-fits-all</a>: “The J-curve is everywhere, but French and Italian people (for example] can drink more safely because the beneficial effect remains longer than in Germany or the UK or in Sweden [and Finland, Norway].”<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCgdbXQr2nF4x2m2qONu7LfD0qaj449sGHTLVBwCbJA5epTf4MyDeCnFHGE0FDP_Ie5D-DmbTTz10noeTFX4OohhSsFoCxEbKmANz23QSpiewAgN050uqb1kCGrVdrfvilIUnncKupsicB-n1pa5E-H15tjJRHZw_4ARJYDEzlAEVKcN-qkAFLnvbAdvrn/s1534/j-curves.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="A set of J-curves" border="0" data-original-height="1129" data-original-width="1534" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCgdbXQr2nF4x2m2qONu7LfD0qaj449sGHTLVBwCbJA5epTf4MyDeCnFHGE0FDP_Ie5D-DmbTTz10noeTFX4OohhSsFoCxEbKmANz23QSpiewAgN050uqb1kCGrVdrfvilIUnncKupsicB-n1pa5E-H15tjJRHZw_4ARJYDEzlAEVKcN-qkAFLnvbAdvrn/w400-h295/j-curves.gif" title="A set of J-curves" width="400" /></a></div><br />There is one other important thing that seems to often be overlooked, when thinking about the J-curve — people usually do not drink alone, unless they have some sort of alcohol problem. This point was emphasized in a recent formal study, discussed here: <a href="https://www.winespectator.com/articles/wine-s-biggest-health-benefit-might-be-drinking-with-friends" target="_blank">Wine’s biggest health benefit might be drinking with friends</a>. To quote:<br /><blockquote>A new study suggests that drinking wine with friends offers more health benefits than drinking alone ... According to their study, published in the journal <i>The Gerontologist</i>, they questioned whether published studies on the benefits of moderate alcohol consumption for the elderly population could be attributed to the lifestyle adopted by these moderate drinkers rather than alcohol itself as a substance. Their theory was that moderate drinking correlated to how often respondents socialized and that this increase in social activities is what produced the positive health outcomes.</blockquote>I cannot emphasize this social point enough. When I was young, I went to the pub on Friday nights with my friends. We played snooker or pool, and had a few beers. The beers were not the important part — the socializing was the important part. I now share a bottle of wine with my wife, and often with our shared friends. You get the idea: I do not drink alone. If I did, then I would probably consider myself to have a drinking problem.<br /><br />Indeed, the multiple J-curves, mentioned above, may actually be different social effects, as well. After all, the effect of drinking 1 glass of wine per day is probably different from that of drinking 7 glasses (1 bottle) on the weekend only. These two scenarios would produce different J-curves for the people involved.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLHKKNtSMrn7QskoMvLYrCSbGEZvNT0aqAmkQxypjxvyWmfJ9jrtoAm1ZUVp_-Vlx_RFM55yAzXzwL6x3-opyHPYIp5WGKW7_KRSRtofuD-4e9jjI7S47u56WE6BVntTXrPYKDMl4liMszolpjcRjSG5u38Pvv54NLFC-S0rnKGFZVVzUvOW0gvyM6NpSs/s514/glass.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Glass per day" border="0" data-original-height="452" data-original-width="514" height="176" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgLHKKNtSMrn7QskoMvLYrCSbGEZvNT0aqAmkQxypjxvyWmfJ9jrtoAm1ZUVp_-Vlx_RFM55yAzXzwL6x3-opyHPYIp5WGKW7_KRSRtofuD-4e9jjI7S47u56WE6BVntTXrPYKDMl4liMszolpjcRjSG5u38Pvv54NLFC-S0rnKGFZVVzUvOW0gvyM6NpSs/w200-h176/glass.gif" title="Glass per day" width="200" /></a></div><br />I should end with something positive. Jeff Siegel recently noted (<a href="https://wineindustryadvisor.com/2023/11/03/down-to-zero-ignoring-neo-prohibitionists-could-prove-dangerous-to-the-wine-industry" target="_blank">Down to zero: Ignoring neo-Prohibitionists could prove dangerous to the wine industry</a>):<br /><blockquote>For much of the past decade, the wine business has watched — with seemingly little interest — as health groups and national regulators took strong measures to reduce alcohol consumption around the world. Their assertion, backed up by a variety of studies, was that any drinking, even in moderation, was deadly. Those studies included a report earlier this year by the World Health Organization, as well as Irish regulators who linked drinking with cancer, and a Canadian proposal to cut safe alcohol limits from two drinks per day to two per week.</blockquote>He then collated some pertinent suggestions for useful actions by people in the wine industry, to address the current attacks from some parts of the medical and political world:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>Call out the bad science</li><li>Reinforce the good science</li><li>Offer the mainstream media another point of view</li><li>Take neo-Prohibitionism seriously</li><li>Sharpen wine’s marketing focus</li><li>Support transparency in labeling and ingredients</li><li>Position wine as the choice of moderation</li></ul>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-90357842248717865232023-11-06T00:30:00.004+01:002023-11-06T00:30:00.149+01:00It is difficult to study the effect on children of parental drinkingEveryone in the wine industry should care about the effects on children of parents’ wine consumption. For example, over-indulgence by parents should not lead to any current or future consumption problems for their children. Alternatively, wine enjoyment by parents might usefully be passed on to their children.<br /><br />However, it is not easy to research this topic in any formal way. After all, we cannot do the sort of standard scientific experiment where we manipulate the world to see what effect our changes have. So, we are stuck with what are called “correlative surveys”, where we quantify both parental and child drinking, to assess the degree to which they are correlated.<br /><br />Sadly, such experiments are not necessarily easy, as I discuss here.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTm4CSz9Q4rLA0vuX8mjm8ZqFHAKXJZeJ07Rlty9jf7RpPt6Zx22yAGPJC60cYzoIn6ZbEXF0w0ppASeB6eBc1FNZgrW1mio2nV0i6_CXj9yGaqMjRBG34HKxZhzz9whS_6C4_fiHsbXY2InUqJ2LyhRIojx_UEEFuiPRznryKiX3NrdX6m-NCHTJbPCr7/s450/children-alcohol-parents.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="276" data-original-width="450" height="196" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTm4CSz9Q4rLA0vuX8mjm8ZqFHAKXJZeJ07Rlty9jf7RpPt6Zx22yAGPJC60cYzoIn6ZbEXF0w0ppASeB6eBc1FNZgrW1mio2nV0i6_CXj9yGaqMjRBG34HKxZhzz9whS_6C4_fiHsbXY2InUqJ2LyhRIojx_UEEFuiPRznryKiX3NrdX6m-NCHTJbPCr7/s320/children-alcohol-parents.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />A specific example that I will discuss here was published as: Associations between parental drinking and alcohol use among their adolescent children: Findings from a national survey of United States parent-child dyads (Michele K. Bohm and Marissa B. Esser. <a href="https://www.jahonline.org/article/S1054-139X(23)00303-8/fulltext" target="_blank">Journal of Adolescent Health</a> 73: 961–964, 2023). This study examined associations between parent and child drinking using recent United States national survey data:<br /><blockquote>We analyzed responses of 740 parent—child dyads from 2020 SummerStyles and YouthStyles surveys. Parents and their adolescent children answered questions about past 30-day alcohol use ... An adult answered the first survey and, if applicable, one of their children ages 12—17 answered the same questions in the second survey.</blockquote>The results are straightforward, as presented in the publication:<br /><blockquote>We estimated prevalence of adolescent drinking and explored differences by socio-demographics ... Overall, 6.6% of adolescents drank alcohol, with no significant differences by socio-demographics. Adolescents whose parents drank frequently (≥5 days/month), or binge drank, had significantly higher odds of drinking than adolescents whose parents did not drink or did not binge drink, respectively.</blockquote>Unfortunately, the problem with this sort of descriptive experimental approach is that the researchers do not have any control over the sample of people surveyed. If there is any bias in the sampling of the people, then there is nothing that can be done about it. In this case, the characteristics of the sampled people are shown in this table.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ0MwgzcGe8MjViV9uhwMtWFG11sAvZO2GV3B3wYrHV_Z622gr9-mUYgb6yRikBp-oYHiua0Xinoxv9SVUM0ICuKwAEPqHbrT8L-FIEQ1GesXJ8JINXgK42iklqZcpIPuh6UUSarqtSJulrlmourQxKGDitCdsYxbrZprFx5yMBEOs4ALgFfLuuq1X8mKc/s785/Table1.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Characteristics of the people sampled" border="0" data-original-height="785" data-original-width="514" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjZ0MwgzcGe8MjViV9uhwMtWFG11sAvZO2GV3B3wYrHV_Z622gr9-mUYgb6yRikBp-oYHiua0Xinoxv9SVUM0ICuKwAEPqHbrT8L-FIEQ1GesXJ8JINXgK42iklqZcpIPuh6UUSarqtSJulrlmourQxKGDitCdsYxbrZprFx5yMBEOs4ALgFfLuuq1X8mKc/w421-h640/Table1.gif" title="Characteristics of the people sampled" width="421" /></a></div><br />A look through these numbers reveals several characteristics that are likely not representative of the overall US population:<br /><ul style="text-align: left;"><li>two-thirds of the parents are female</li><li>three-quarters of the parents have some tertiary education</li><li>more than half of the parents earn a lot of money</li><li>half of the parents do not drink.</li></ul>Any of these is a potential bias in the experiment, meaning that we do not know how the sample relates to the general population of people. That is, I assume that the data as presented are quite correct: but I cannot deduce what this tells me about US people in general. We need unbiased surveys if we are to be able to draw unbiased conclusions.<br /><br />This does not in any way down-play the potential effects of parental drinking behavior on their children. An earlier publication (Michael Windle. Effect of parental drinking on adolescents. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/publication/232581537_Effect_of_Parental_Drinking_on_Adolescents" target="_blank">Life-Stage Issues</a> 20: 181–184, 1996) correctly noted:<br /><blockquote>It is evident that parental alcohol abuse may have a range of potential adverse effects on adolescents. Problem drinking by parents may influence role—modeling behaviors, parenting skills, and marital and family relations, all of which may contribute to a host of problematic outcomes for adolescents.</blockquote>Nor, of course, does this preclude any attempt to do better studies. However, this is not easy in this case. For example, a survey paper (Ingeborg Rossow, Patrick Keating, Lambert Felix & Jim McCambridge. Does parental drinking influence children’s drinking? A systematic review of prospective cohort studies. <a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4832292/" target="_blank">Addiction</a> 111: 204–217, 2015) involving a search for what is often considered to be the best sort of experiment in this situation (called: prospective cohort studies) found that:<br /><blockquote>Four of the 21 included studies filled several, but not all, criteria and were assessed to have some capacity for causal inference. These four studies found some evidence that parental drinking predicted drinking behaviour in adolescent offspring. The remaining 17 studies had little or no such capacity.</blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFkYkNizG0s4wuZmhvMcR1VckYzIZ5fFzGoJwptHlr3nPvGOWm1A1EOIeGFfK0LPzV5hmS-QUuPhr6QRb05eB-k1qsXlBTcyrc_znbmDnhVt6P9sqQ22BeyLqoE7DGvjvVQCLTXd-DzoRdKqJRD7YHV3c2zzGYQNGMvpClWyEkGn46sxjxgg-UwmZ1EdTH/s850/GH_content_1050px.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="550" data-original-width="850" height="207" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFkYkNizG0s4wuZmhvMcR1VckYzIZ5fFzGoJwptHlr3nPvGOWm1A1EOIeGFfK0LPzV5hmS-QUuPhr6QRb05eB-k1qsXlBTcyrc_znbmDnhVt6P9sqQ22BeyLqoE7DGvjvVQCLTXd-DzoRdKqJRD7YHV3c2zzGYQNGMvpClWyEkGn46sxjxgg-UwmZ1EdTH/s320/GH_content_1050px.gif" width="320" /></a></div><br />Mind you, children to not <i>necessarily</i> copy their parents’ behavior. For example, it has recently been pointed out that the current generation of young adults do not seem to be all that keen on consuming alcohol (<a href="https://www.theiwsr.com/how-is-gen-z-approaching-beverage-alcohol/" target="_blank">How is Gen Z approaching beverage alcohol?</a>):<br /><blockquote>Younger, legal-drinking aged Gen Z consumers increasingly enjoy a very different relationship with alcohol versus older age cohorts, exhibiting rising levels of abstention, moderation, experimenting with new categories, and turning away from traditional, high-volume categories, ... although there are wide variations between individual countries.</blockquote>So, it seems that the youngest generation of adults have not copied their parents’ (Millennials) drinking habits. Indeed, this blog may be coming progressively redundant. I hope not!<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-16974424014751014532023-10-30T00:30:00.159+01:002023-10-30T08:32:42.047+01:00Viking wine, cider or mead?According to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vikings" target="_blank">Wikipedia</a>:<br /><blockquote>Viking is the modern name given to seafaring people originally from Scandinavia (present-day Denmark, Norway and Sweden), who from the late 8th to the late 11th centuries raided, pirated, traded and settled throughout parts of Europe ... The Vikings had a profound impact on the early medieval history of Scandinavia, the British Isles, France, Estonia, and Kievan Rus. *<br /></blockquote>This is all very well, but what did they drink? After all, in Europe this was the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_Ages" target="_blank">Middle Ages</a> or Medieval Period (which lasted approximately from the late 5th to the late 15th centuries). There seem to have been a couple of online articles about this topic recently; and so it is worth discussing.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBJWSZxrGnzFe_gntVkrBZN0SxuXj_IIZQuqUxyDGTFn_eb2A58gyFG6M02KkbiJg0tuLbjaDaaRlUf8AbZgnhsCL3yWncMkPhBQTl4BQAU5OWA5qxW4ERAUtio37FBeHTb3AFSVmp0pQyIv_arH_FNYgm8h8YrIr86RdE4DgQejaRXzUvmvJN3sfickRm/s600/morrison_tartan.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Morrison tartan" border="0" data-original-height="600" data-original-width="600" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjBJWSZxrGnzFe_gntVkrBZN0SxuXj_IIZQuqUxyDGTFn_eb2A58gyFG6M02KkbiJg0tuLbjaDaaRlUf8AbZgnhsCL3yWncMkPhBQTl4BQAU5OWA5qxW4ERAUtio37FBeHTb3AFSVmp0pQyIv_arH_FNYgm8h8YrIr86RdE4DgQejaRXzUvmvJN3sfickRm/w200-h200/morrison_tartan.gif" title="Morrison tartan" width="200" /></a></div><br />Actually, this somewhat matters to my own ancestry, given that Morrison is actually a Scandinavian form of name. The ancestor from whom I inherited my surname actually migrated to Australia (where I was born) from Scotland, where there is a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clan_Morrison" target="_blank">Morrison</a> clan (with a tartan, as shown above). However, the Gaelic form of the name should actually be MacMorris, since that is how “son of Morris” is written in the Celtic languages. In Norway, however, the most common form is Morrison, in Denmark it is Morrisen, and in Sweden (where I now live) it is Morrisson.<br /><br />So, I care what my ancestors drank. As an aside, I will also mention that originally the word “viking” (pronounced “vee-king” in Scandinavia) was a verb, not a noun, describing the raid for which the medieval Norsemen are historically best known. This is a case of the people being known to others for their actions, not their location.<br /><br />Anyway, the most obvious recent article is in Swedish (<a href="https://www.dagensps.se/weekend/mat-vin/vikingarnas-favoritdryck-avslojad/" target="_blank">Vikingarnas favoritdryck avslöjad</a>), but is about <i>The Vikings’ favorite drink revealed</i>:<br /><blockquote>You might be thinking mead. When it comes to Vikings and drink, however, it is a completely different drink that dominates. The idea that the raw-barked and relatively primitive Norwegians would sip a glass of cider is perhaps not quite natural in the mouth? ... There is evidence of the production of cider already in the Roman Empire. At the same time, some claim that the Celtic Britons invented the drink, chronologically around the year 50 AD ... What we do know, however, is that the drink was already produced and sold in the 13th century in Norway. It was Cistercian monks from Great Britain who planted apples on the coast of the Hardangerfjord and taught the farmers there how to use the apples — among other things to make cider.</blockquote><blockquote>In Norse mythology, the goddess Idunn delivered apples to the gods to preserve their youth and immortality. The Vikings regarded apples as a treasure, and “we know that the Vikings loved to drink alcohol, and it is likely that they made something similar to cider with the apples. But the apples they had were native and not very good, so the Vikings would have used honey to sweeten it. But as soon as you add honey, it becomes mead, not cider, technically speaking,” explains Ellen Marie Naess, archaeologist at Oslo’s Museum of Cultural History. **<br /></blockquote><p>The BBC has also had a commentary on the topic: <a href="https://www.bbc.com/travel/article/20230920-the-rebirth-of-norways-cider-tradition" target="_blank">The rebirth of Norway's cider tradition</a>.<br /><br /></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr9kEkMzTjYChwrtc67xsCgkw9-T_jKEjpAEqXVhUcC2n1e-_brYUafgBRxD1XJ3iE_btVPoASO9raLr24fGoRSIdpYJfsrD3Mw4zJsPkNmVu_WYYjSedVuhnLgjiKv2rwiACdbMcKdHkFPoAYhCYG9mLlKV5WMy2ToRTycHXOE3Knz_r2ETUQzI1-BH9i/s659/containers.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Should you use a bucket or a carboy for primary fermentation?" border="0" data-original-height="489" data-original-width="659" height="296" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgr9kEkMzTjYChwrtc67xsCgkw9-T_jKEjpAEqXVhUcC2n1e-_brYUafgBRxD1XJ3iE_btVPoASO9raLr24fGoRSIdpYJfsrD3Mw4zJsPkNmVu_WYYjSedVuhnLgjiKv2rwiACdbMcKdHkFPoAYhCYG9mLlKV5WMy2ToRTycHXOE3Knz_r2ETUQzI1-BH9i/w400-h296/containers.gif" title="We have used both of these for home fermentation" width="400" /></a></div><br />I can confirm the modern popularity of home cider-making in Scandinavia, as well as the commercial stuff. My wife and I have made our own, as we have plenty of suitable trees. The apples are pressed at the local commercial press, which is very very busy in season. However, we are just as likely to make juice, which oodles of other people do, as well.<br /><br />It is also worth noting here that cider is not necessarily dry, in taste. Indeed, Sweden's national liquor chain currently advertises 94 dry Scandinavian ciders versus 83 sweet ones.<br /><br />As far as actual wine is concerned, any fruits are fair game in Scandinavia. In my own home, we regularly make wine from gooseberries and from cherries, both of which turn out well (ie. we are not embarrassed to give some of the resulting bottles to other people). These usually turn out fairly sweet (ie. not all of the sugar gets fermented), and they are therefore used as dessert wines. The same is true for the grape wines, which we can make from the very large vine on our garage. However, to my way of thinking, the wines never turn out as well as they should — the native grape-vines are, sadly, not a patch on the ones from down south.<br /><br />As an aside, I will note that California has been known even to mix cider and wine: <a href="https://daily.sevenfifty.com/sonomas-co-ferments-bring-cider-and-wine-together/" target="_blank">Sonoma’s co-ferments bring cider and wine together</a>. The idea is that: “A local wine director thinks co-fermenting apples and grapes into pét-nat-style sparklers could help preserve Sonoma’s 150-year-old apple trees.” One can (as in the comment about mead, above) ask: <a href="https://punchdrink.com/articles/wine-anything-but-vinifera/" target="_blank">Is this even wine?</a> That is: “By focusing on co-ferments, hybrids and foraged ingredients, a natural wine movement is creating a more expansive and accessible definition of wine.”<br /><br /><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cPCH_p3FjjkJecNiMH8oIcKUTOCHL7XB5eIEACimlT7nFJZhlyX6lGSELBqR26a-pxHtIeHNvkbwysBY7M_h-V9O40T7rdjCn3b5lalmJhUvra5B4u-87WKKMevbIR2RQNzn4ka0XUVOja5kt0GsRnOK0PzzA-C0PULij43bA9BWdQ5zonFBylTTXP9D/s4018/Home_wine.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Some home-made wines" border="0" data-original-height="2442" data-original-width="4018" height="243" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4cPCH_p3FjjkJecNiMH8oIcKUTOCHL7XB5eIEACimlT7nFJZhlyX6lGSELBqR26a-pxHtIeHNvkbwysBY7M_h-V9O40T7rdjCn3b5lalmJhUvra5B4u-87WKKMevbIR2RQNzn4ka0XUVOja5kt0GsRnOK0PzzA-C0PULij43bA9BWdQ5zonFBylTTXP9D/w400-h243/Home_wine.gif" title="Some home-made wines" width="400" /></a></div><br />Mead, as noted above, is made from honey (and water), to which is added extras ranging from fruits, grains, spices, and apparently even hops. In Viking times it was allegedly favored by the wealthy people, with one resembling the color of blood prized above all (<a href="https://thevikingherald.com/article/what-is-viking-blod-mjoed-blood-mead/184" target="_blank">What is Viking "Blod mjød" (Blood mead)?</a>). Given the poor grape-growing climate, mead was clearly much more popular than wine.<br /><br />In this sense, Medieval wines were being made elsewhere, while the Scandinavians were making cider and mead, and conducting raids. Some people have looked at this topic (<a href="https://www.pdcnet.org/mediaevalia/content/mediaevalia_2009_0030_0015_0042" target="_blank">Medieval and Renaissance wines: Taste, dietary theory, and how to choose the “right” wine [14th-16th centuries]</a>), and come to the conclusion that: “Reconstructing the taste of wine made at the end of the Middle Ages and in the Reanaissance is a practically impossible task.” However, we do have some ideas about the topic (<a href="https://www.medievalists.net/2023/08/wine-middle-ages/" target="_blank">What was the best wine in the Middle Ages?</a>). Sadly, these ideas “led the wine drinker to consider a dizzying variety of factors in making his choice.” So, you will not find it an easy topic, to either discuss or replicate.<br /><br /><p></p><hr /><br />* The Vikings also got to north-eastern North America (via Iceland and Greenland) 500 years before Columbus got to the Caribbean.<br /><br />** Defining “wine” is not easy (<a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/culture/industry-news/wine-definition-change/" target="_blank">Is the definition of wine changing? The push for ‘low-alcohol’ wines suggests so</a>). In the E.U., for example, it currently must contain at least 8.5% alcohol by volume to be legally labeled as “wine”.<br /><p></p><p></p>David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-884403778223182662023-10-23T00:30:00.198+02:002023-10-23T00:30:00.149+02:00When is the wine industry going to wake up to itself?I'm just a consumer who happens to write a blog about wine. Therefore, the concept of a global pool of excess wine does not affect me professionally. It does, however, concern me personally, not least because I grew up in Australia, and therefore a wine-supply problem in Australia does affect me personally. After all, this is where I first learned to appreciate good wine.<br /><br />Well, recent media reports indicate that not only does the global wine industry have an excess pool, it has an excess lake. The way we are going, it will soon be an excess ocean. These metaphors seem quite apt. Clearly, the wine industry has an over–supply problem. What is to be done about it, and what is being done?<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2WwxcZZGWcR7YHUbnGpR36uRY9FcalVadj-hcQ7Kzhb_aCvLqvTmzlilsUASXWEDQivmiPOpoHeult_3UZCL-p3eZQcUElT5l6uf9y8UY9m5HOfuzr5AqS6LVzdakEZImWswqxumFxl6iNiMqFQDsBWjS_n4twW5qPknLCv6nVlI2tLAmziwHoYr4Mx3q/s470/lake.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Wine lake drowning" border="0" data-original-height="259" data-original-width="470" height="110" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2WwxcZZGWcR7YHUbnGpR36uRY9FcalVadj-hcQ7Kzhb_aCvLqvTmzlilsUASXWEDQivmiPOpoHeult_3UZCL-p3eZQcUElT5l6uf9y8UY9m5HOfuzr5AqS6LVzdakEZImWswqxumFxl6iNiMqFQDsBWjS_n4twW5qPknLCv6nVlI2tLAmziwHoYr4Mx3q/w200-h110/lake.gif" title="Wine lake drowning" width="200" /></a></div><br />It is ironic that a decade ago we were commenting on a <i>lack</i> of grapes (eg. April 2012): <a href="https://www.northbaybusinessjournal.com/article/industry-news/winegrape-shortage-could-last-six-to-eight--years/" target="_blank">Winegrape shortage could last six to eight years</a>:<br /><blockquote>After nearly 10 years of oversupply and low prices, California winegrapes and bulk wines are suddenly in a position of scarcity. Wineries are scurrying to find grapes and secure vineyard assets, while negociant wineries see their wine sources dwindling.</blockquote>Well, that decade has now well and truly passed. These days, we are now getting headlines like these examples, instead:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/opinion-wine/devils-advocate-its-million-litre-question-what-should-happen-australias-excess" target="_blank">It’s the million-litre question. what should happen to Australia’s excess wine?</a><br /><blockquote>Is anyone interested in buying a million litres of 2021 and 2022 Australian Shiraz, Cabernet and Merlot? It tastes OK, apparently, and could be yours for just US$0.20 a litre. [However,] wine is not water, or milk or Coca Cola or even beer. Producing even the most basic red or white is harder and more susceptible to the changing climate. Selling it cheaply does little to convey that truth to the people who buy it. Instead of trying to get $200,000 for those tankfuls of excess wine, the Australian government would do better to follow the European model of funding its distillation.</blockquote><a href="https://www.hudin.com/doc-rioja-recommends-moratorium-on-new-vine-planting/" target="_blank">DOC Rioja recommends moratorium on new vine planting</a> <br /><blockquote>There are various reasons for these measures but the main driving force is the massive quantities of excess, unsold wine that has been accumulating since 2018. While there have been no absolute, official figures on the complete total, various people within the wine trade in Rioja have stated unverifiable figures that range from 100—150 million liters. This money has formed the base of a plan during the summer that was launched to distill excess wine, paying 0.86€/l for up to 17.5 million liters from 113 approved. Apparently some wineries had too much wine to qualify. Additionally, over 83kg million of grapes were to be purchased by the state to offset excesses from the harvest directly.</blockquote>Note the two quite different payment prices in those two quotations. [Rioja gets >4 times the Australian amount!]<br /><br /><a href="https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20230828-struggling-french-winemakers-may-have-to-destroy-their-vintage-cellars-to-survive" target="_blank">Struggling French winemakers may have to destroy their vintage cellars to survive</a><br /><blockquote>According to the local farmers' association, a fall in demand for wine has led to overproduction, a sharp fall in prices and major financial difficulties for up to one in three wine makers in the Bordeaux region. An initial European Union fund, capped at €160 million for wine destruction has been increased to €200 million by the French government.</blockquote><a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/10/19/french-wine-imports-protest-spanish-cava-boulou-trade/" target="_blank">French wine growers destroy gallons of Spanish cava in 'economic war'</a><br /><blockquote>French winegrowers hijacked lorries entering from Spain and dumped thousands of bottles of rosé and cava into the road to protest against what they claim is unfair competition. The French vintners said they were protesting against the unfairly low prices of foreign wine that they cannot match, leading to difficulties in selling their own products. Thousands of gallons of rosé were emptied into the street and 10,000 bottles of sparkling Spanish wine were smashed.</blockquote><a href="https://www.wineaustralia.com/news/market-bulletin/issue-294" target="_blank">Global oversupply expected to continue despite below average harvest in 2023</a><br /><blockquote>Early estimates indicate that global wine production in 2023 will be below average for the fifth year in a row; however, it is still expected to exceed demand by around 10 per cent, as wine consumption continues its long-term decline.</blockquote>Well, doesn’t that say it all? If you haven’t got the global message by now, then you probably never will get it. Look at the next graph. In most countries, production is not increasing, so that over-supply must logically involve decreasing consumption. Unless we can increase consumption, then we must also decrease production, unless we are to continue looking like idiots. If you can’t sell all of your product, then stop producing so much of it!<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ9QgV6Yx7-UP8PBXqda5HLKuKchuX8zzzCqcbniCqpUY21l9XhBbRtnf9Y2yRMp1SIGrceN4QYMZvE4Y0OZFZ8pviVRWXQbNgeBMm7WZdr1IVAFUiScr3MlH0u5nH6rzgHxsYpoL8b7KFt771S_AU3QBdB1puUhSkW0U6SjfbUfZnuMRM4KmxOCc-dGFs/s965/294-1.PNG" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Global wine production by country 2011–2023. OIV," border="0" data-original-height="635" data-original-width="965" height="211" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhQ9QgV6Yx7-UP8PBXqda5HLKuKchuX8zzzCqcbniCqpUY21l9XhBbRtnf9Y2yRMp1SIGrceN4QYMZvE4Y0OZFZ8pviVRWXQbNgeBMm7WZdr1IVAFUiScr3MlH0u5nH6rzgHxsYpoL8b7KFt771S_AU3QBdB1puUhSkW0U6SjfbUfZnuMRM4KmxOCc-dGFs/w320-h211/294-1.PNG" title="Click to enlarge." width="320" /></a></div><br />Indeed, the above sorts of headlines have been coming for quite some time. Even back in 2020 there was talk of excess grapes:<br /><br /><a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2020/01/american-wine-report-warns-of-over-supply-and-under-consumption/" target="_blank">American wine report warns of over-supply and under-consumption</a><br /><blockquote>Rob McMillan in his Silicon Valley Bank 2020 State of the Wine Industry Report: “This oversupply, coupled with eroding consumer demand, can only lead to discounting of finished wine, bulk wine and grapes. U.S. wine consumers will discover unprecedented retail value in 2020 and should buy up.”</blockquote><a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/grapes-wine-price-excess-supply" target="_blank">Wine prices slated to dwindle over excess grape supply, experts say</a><br /><blockquote>The price of wine is slated to drop this year due to an excess supply of grapes, ultimately giving wine connoisseurs something to raise a glass to.</blockquote>And previously in 2021:<br /><br /><a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wine-industry-sees-oversupply-relevant-to-demand-despite-wildfires-water-shortage-144603620.html" target="_blank">Wine makers see 'oversupply' as industry brave wildfires, water shortage</a><br /><br />It is not immediately obvious to me that there has been any concerted response to these warnings. This is, of course, why we now stand where we do. Indeed, the French Agriculture Minister (Marc Fesneau) has said that the wine industry needs to “look to the future, think about consumer changes ... and adapt” (<a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/culture/industry-news/france-wine-destroying-surplus/" target="_blank">France’s destruction of surplus wine hints at an existential wine crisis</a>). Quite why the British keep increasing their grape plantings is therefore not immediately obvious (<a href="https://harpers.co.uk/news/fullstory.php/aid/31957/Vineyards_become_the_fastest_growing_crop_in_England.html" target="_blank">Vineyards become the fastest growing crop in England</a>).<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7eiV_LbStz6ffSbPGVShmL8-R_YZOCFmzQ2hNv4ozQdTZhQoDREO3Mi-Hl3pSzRcqJnZ5HTd_Ys66SfLWJ8Oz8Qn46aMZh0Fm2Ev53Da3Uq8MsY9s8XRuuOXu7UKGFmH3-rWvojqbBQCHbaWsDmYk8x6RKpRVcqjavM_8-HGCnmjqzik5bpdvbj7eU9Uw/s593/supplydemand.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Supply versus demand" border="0" data-original-height="342" data-original-width="593" height="116" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7eiV_LbStz6ffSbPGVShmL8-R_YZOCFmzQ2hNv4ozQdTZhQoDREO3Mi-Hl3pSzRcqJnZ5HTd_Ys66SfLWJ8Oz8Qn46aMZh0Fm2Ev53Da3Uq8MsY9s8XRuuOXu7UKGFmH3-rWvojqbBQCHbaWsDmYk8x6RKpRVcqjavM_8-HGCnmjqzik5bpdvbj7eU9Uw/w200-h116/supplydemand.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br />This raises the obvious question: When did the over-supply (ie. over-planting) start? Well, I showed in an earlier post (using a graph) that global wine production has exceeded global consumption since way back in the early 1960s (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-smallest-global-wine-prodcution-for.html" target="_blank">The smallest global wine production for 55 years?</a>). So, none of this is recent news.<br /><br />As a final aside, this situation may seem to be somewhat similar to the recent drop in sales of new electric vehicles (<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/2023/05/08/ev-sales-2023-slowing/70188358007/" target="_blank">Are EV sales declining? Electrifying the car market may be getting harder</a>; <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZlsZwcIgpc" target="_blank">Why EVs are piling up at dealerships in the U.S.</a>). In this case, it is reported that we have saturated the current market for pure electric vehicles (as opposed to hybrids), and so sales of new ones have slowed down notably. However, in the case of the wine industry it is, instead, the fact that the marketplace has moved on (to other drink preferences) that has caused the slowdown in sales, not market saturation.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-2444156691572639812023-10-16T00:30:00.089+02:002023-10-16T00:30:00.179+02:00Having multiple expert wine assessments is importantOne thing for which the wine industry has often been looked down upon is having Experts, who tell us which wines are Good. Indeed, we even have recognized International Experts, whose pronouncements can have a big influence on wine sales (eg. in my lifetime, Jancis Robinson in the UK, or Robert Parker in the USA). However, this idea hits a brick wall when we try to do factual research experiments in the wine industry.<br /><br />Scientists insist upon what they call Replication, which means attempting to measure the same thing several times independently. That last word is important. It means that, if a wine is tasted in a scientific experiment, then multiple people must taste it, and the experimental result will be a combination of all of these tastings, not just the pronouncement of any one person.<br /><br />This leads me to ask: which has the biggest affect on the experimental outcome of assessing wines — differences among the people or differences among the wines? Let’s look at a specific example. <br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUhgNfLxKy-pvMc0zFK_0FRIff1R2GsHWZg00d9pzcqawD2oEjcxnGNDY02o-O50cABrAxdbnxE82J3WKdO3kJ7XTQF62yWMzvOsRf3wwwDgMM1K0K-xKL_g-ziAVpcSYBxJ9BqyD3pzy6wM2TExtRQadLvHj2L-OOkGK1Ywz1QodNW1dCrOCKSPvRLsk9/s975/experts.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Wine experts" border="0" data-original-height="438" data-original-width="975" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUhgNfLxKy-pvMc0zFK_0FRIff1R2GsHWZg00d9pzcqawD2oEjcxnGNDY02o-O50cABrAxdbnxE82J3WKdO3kJ7XTQF62yWMzvOsRf3wwwDgMM1K0K-xKL_g-ziAVpcSYBxJ9BqyD3pzy6wM2TExtRQadLvHj2L-OOkGK1Ywz1QodNW1dCrOCKSPvRLsk9/w320-h144/experts.gif" title="Wine experts" width="320" /></a></div><br />The example that I will look at here was published as: <a href="https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10886-018-0950-4" target="_blank">The scent of the fly</a> (<i>Journal of Chemical Ecology</i> 44: 431–435, 2018). This looks at the idea that a container of wine can be spoiled by even a single vinegar fly (<i>Drosophila melanogaster</i>). Six different experiments were conducted, each comparing two different “treatments” that might affect the smell of a fly in a wine glass (including the chemical associated with the flies, called Z4-11Al).<br /><br />To address this topic, the people involved in assessing the wine were:<br /><blockquote>Eight members (comprised of two women and six men) of the sensory panel for organoleptic tests for the wine-growing area of Baden [Germany] evaluated the odor of <i>D. melanogaster</i> and synthetic Z4-11Al. Members of this panel have been trained and selected for the official quality assessment of wines produced in Baden, at the Federal Institute for Viticulture, Freiburg, Germany. Each test comprised three glasses, a control and two treatments, which were presented in random order. The panel was asked to score odor intensity, ranging from 1 (weak, silent) to 9 (strong, loud), and to comment on odor quality.</blockquote>So, in this case we can have a look at how much variation there was in the final set of smell scores due to both: (i) the different experimental treatments, and (ii) the different people doing the sniffing. I won’t bore you with the details, but the following graph shows you the Maximum / Average / Minimum difference in scores for the people when each of them compared the same two treatments for each experiment.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3bSsi2VNSS0g66mXDXCjxFXbIX5g5wH7L3ROvh0YVHKYOXlzemEMDnwRucPXL-WjGp5ujKXZFeYSeySK_9TiRlax24iTARkLh5-_TML6fGHbYXNFe_7je9HtOnOqoncLXJnIJIsrU6YP2efYGEut6BMRWJIblSLeGj1GCkovyNLQ46bjqMQ2gIxfwpv2K/s1669/Graph.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Graph of wine smell assessments" border="0" data-original-height="1398" data-original-width="1669" height="335" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3bSsi2VNSS0g66mXDXCjxFXbIX5g5wH7L3ROvh0YVHKYOXlzemEMDnwRucPXL-WjGp5ujKXZFeYSeySK_9TiRlax24iTARkLh5-_TML6fGHbYXNFe_7je9HtOnOqoncLXJnIJIsrU6YP2efYGEut6BMRWJIblSLeGj1GCkovyNLQ46bjqMQ2gIxfwpv2K/w400-h335/Graph.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />Note that for Experiments 4 and 5 there is a big range of scores between the panelists, compared to Experiments 1, 2 and 3, for example, and especially compared to Experiment 6. Apparently, there can be quite some differences between what the people smelled, each time. So, replication of the people was clearly important in this experiment.<br /><br />However, what we are actually most interested in is whether there was any <i>consistency</i> as to which panelists differed from the others. That is, did any one panelist, for example, consistently give higher or lower scores than the other panelists?<br /><br />The answer here is: No. Once again, I will not bore you with the details, but a Two-Factor Analysis of Variance (with no replication)* shows that 85.2% of the experimental variation is associated with the variation between the experimental treatments, and only 6.5% is associated with any variation between the panelists. This is the sort of result that scientists like (ie. consistency)! **<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC2HSUfS-i2RFg0RuBgX40OxKzcqFVWR_g7VyhXymT9vzued0SSldP9awRfKGjgBnLQHY7k8Lbz53EIPNZ5-x6ca6ZvDtUJlhf5pzZXsBmJ7W7NUAn5tWZL-S43rOD8ko4HGU8d6dQxMpQY-I6ddmqDaLppmpWszkrhltlYKyk1oxIDx_AF4T0KbNK_lDy/s396/progressive.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Scientist and wine" border="0" data-original-height="310" data-original-width="396" height="157" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjC2HSUfS-i2RFg0RuBgX40OxKzcqFVWR_g7VyhXymT9vzued0SSldP9awRfKGjgBnLQHY7k8Lbz53EIPNZ5-x6ca6ZvDtUJlhf5pzZXsBmJ7W7NUAn5tWZL-S43rOD8ko4HGU8d6dQxMpQY-I6ddmqDaLppmpWszkrhltlYKyk1oxIDx_AF4T0KbNK_lDy/w200-h157/progressive.gif" title="Scientist and wine" width="200" /></a></div><br />I chose this experiment as my example simply because it came along recently in my reading. Nevertheless, it does show that replicate people are important to have in experiments, because they are different from each other, but that they are not always different in any consistent way. This applies just as much to experiments in the wine industry as to anywhere else.<br /><br />We might all like it if the same could be said of so-called Wine Experts, in general. To me, there is nothing more useless than wine advice from someone whose tastes consistently do not match my own. So, since I have a science background, I always insist that at least two Experts must pronounce a wine to be good value-for-money before I will consider purchasing it (see my post: <a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2018/07/calculating-value-for-money-wines.html" target="_blank">Calculating value for money wines</a>).<br /><br /><hr /><br />* See <a href="https://stats.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Computing_and_Modeling/Supplemental_Modules_(Computing_and_Modeling)/Regression_Analysis/Analysis_of_Variance/Two-Factor_ANOVA_model_with_n_%3D_1_(no_replication)" target="_blank">LibreTexts Statistics</a> for an explanation.<br /><br />** The authors’ final conclusion is that that their experiments: “corroborate the observation that a glass of wine is spoilt by a single <i>D. melanogaster</i> fly falling into it, which we here show is caused by Z4-11Al.”<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-50851114731592757422023-10-09T00:30:00.264+02:002023-10-09T00:30:00.134+02:00What amount of wine intake maximizes happiness?Presumably, we all want to be happy, to one extent or another; and many people have a glass of wine to help them achieve this desirable state. However, we also all know about the unhappy problems of “drinking too much”. So, where is the balance? In this post, I do some mathematical calculations to make a specific suggestion (an actual wine value).<br /><br />I will work at the inter-national level, because that is the dataset that I currently have. Of course, this is a very coarse scale at which to work, but needs must. So, I will compare national wine consumption (average per person) with reported national happiness, for a range of countries, to find the simple relationship between these two things.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivLTJcgjZvFS-iKq-CBqPV9CvksVn-0gxGYtqifwl3zjJMkIbwGcAINB6TrqkmV4G1UhxXmvMr7ezDwR3v0uPyZAcUrrmOpSzJg505v1J2fm_95npeze1jgIVX_CfmL9ohfBjBE0tlR9hpTf_C0Jm2auUDsJA8v-66Teptg47H4C68LmE5AMz-Fyh-jcMz/s1101/Consumption.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Total national wine consumption 2022" border="0" data-original-height="1101" data-original-width="905" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivLTJcgjZvFS-iKq-CBqPV9CvksVn-0gxGYtqifwl3zjJMkIbwGcAINB6TrqkmV4G1UhxXmvMr7ezDwR3v0uPyZAcUrrmOpSzJg505v1J2fm_95npeze1jgIVX_CfmL9ohfBjBE0tlR9hpTf_C0Jm2auUDsJA8v-66Teptg47H4C68LmE5AMz-Fyh-jcMz/w329-h400/Consumption.gif" title="Total national wine consumption 2022" width="329" /></a></div><br />My national wine-consumption data come from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), who have produced a report on the <a href="https://www.oiv.int/press/spike-wine-prices-hit-consumption-boosting-export-values-highest-levels" target="_blank">State of the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2022</a>. This lists the liters of wine consumed per capita, for those 22 countries that consumed at least 2 million hectoliters of wine in 2022 (as shown in the figure above).<br /><br />This is standard stuff in the wine industry. However, how many of you have also heard of the <a href="https://worldhappiness.report/ed/2022/" target="_blank">United Nations’ World Happiness Report</a>? This was also published in 2022; and reportedly:<br /><blockquote>is based on Gallup surveys where the population estimated their own perceived happiness. The list focuses on factors such as social support, income, health, freedom, generosity, and lack of corruption.</blockquote>You can read up on this set of surveys for yourselves, or you can consult my earlier blog post (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2019/09/wine-and-world-happiness.html" target="_blank">Wine and world happiness</a>). However, I wish to make a couple of things very clear about the combined final Happiness score for each of the countries. As you will notice in the following figure, showing the top 24 happiest countries: the Nordic countries occupy six of the top eight places (I currently live in Sweden),* with Australia (where I was born) at no. 12. I refuse to live in a country where the people are unhappy!<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw62llEQ5SU9RllInmwFZymHxj_KJjQoEJ-axXpHOJPqqjrOgG9RBr4HAhCH-e1wKVKZQDVMdNoRGGUduAL0nqUBLkt1EbtZWoIGvK2RZB2saOFs04pT71PFoa6Je5yHzZHncrYcAzLH9w84CBq2ByVU65lPWgtMv2lMgTaxFi0cPSuCU6gz6TZrRzC_E5/s1063/Happiness.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Estimated national happiness in 2022" border="0" data-original-height="1038" data-original-width="1063" height="390" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgw62llEQ5SU9RllInmwFZymHxj_KJjQoEJ-axXpHOJPqqjrOgG9RBr4HAhCH-e1wKVKZQDVMdNoRGGUduAL0nqUBLkt1EbtZWoIGvK2RZB2saOFs04pT71PFoa6Je5yHzZHncrYcAzLH9w84CBq2ByVU65lPWgtMv2lMgTaxFi0cPSuCU6gz6TZrRzC_E5/w400-h390/Happiness.gif" title="Estimated national happiness in 2022" width="400" /></a></div><br />Anyway, my objective here is to directly compare wine consumption with happiness, which I have done in the following scatterplot. Each point represents one of the 22 countries, based on both of its data values (consumption horizontally and happiness vertically). The curved line is the quadratic regression, showing the best—fit relationship between the two sets of data. This shows that the happiest people are those with middling wine consumption, rather than either of the two extremes.** This should surprise no-one. Moreover, wine seems to account for nearly 50% of the variation in happiness between countries!<br /><br />The two pink lines show an average (personal) wine consumption of one bottle per week (on the right) and a half-bottle per week (on the left). The maximum happiness, as estimated from the regression line, is an average of 0.73 liters of wine per week. [NB: a standard wine bottle contains 0.75 liters.]<br /><br />So, there you have it. Those of you consuming one bottle of wine per week are already doing as well as you can expect. Any less than this and you will be less happy; any more than this and you also risk being less happy. You should note, however, that the recommendation is somewhat less than the traditional: “a glass a day keeps the doctor away” (c. 70% of it, in fact).<br /><br />As but one example, <a href="https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2023/09/rose-wine-no-longer-vin-piscine-french-red-wine/" target="_blank">French prefer rosé to red wine</a> tells us: “according to statistics from the Comite National des Interprofessions des Vins a Apellation D’Origine (CNIV), the average wine consumption [in France] is now 40 litres per person a year rather than 100 litres in 1975.” This change will have resulted in a great happiness improvement for the French!<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhraY9KxHzFcL4-WrC0DdGqdfNZ1acqZ1NUhebbpaVPvMCzlScWwhCdbflL0TtwfowVbnTT851qu_mT1wgkf4kzinIOu7MMMHEQBbJDvD7wiz8SJoD210T0FwmafKrRz23imh5CCDQU3JowOF8u2_Xwp8epkKLiZqTFY_nz639H6TqwsKR-mv0cDrOuX9Wc/s1979/Relationship2.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Relationship of wine consumption and happiness" border="0" data-original-height="1404" data-original-width="1979" height="284" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhraY9KxHzFcL4-WrC0DdGqdfNZ1acqZ1NUhebbpaVPvMCzlScWwhCdbflL0TtwfowVbnTT851qu_mT1wgkf4kzinIOu7MMMHEQBbJDvD7wiz8SJoD210T0FwmafKrRz23imh5CCDQU3JowOF8u2_Xwp8epkKLiZqTFY_nz639H6TqwsKR-mv0cDrOuX9Wc/w400-h284/Relationship2.gif" title="Click to enlarge" width="400" /></a></div><br />To me, this can form yet another argument in favor of continued wine consumption, against the current social attacks, where even moderate drinking is considered to be bad for your health (<a href="https://www.wineenthusiast.com/culture/non-alcoholic/alcohol-smoking-debate/" target="_blank">Is alcohol the new tobacco?</a>). My distinction here is between mental health and bodily health — we need to produce more stories about how wine is part of a healthy lifestyle for our <i><b>minds</b></i>. This goes along with The Mondavi Defense (as presented by <a href="https://tomwark.substack.com/p/the-mondavi-defense" target="_blank">Tom Wark</a>).<br /><br />I freely admit that this is only an approximate data analysis, since it is at the scale of national averages. For example, the wine data do not account for variations in alcohol content; and nor do the happiness data account for within-country social variation, for example. However, if any of you know of any other way to do this, then I, for one, will be very happy to see the results. Of course, there are also <i><b>other</b></i> things that are related to happiness (<a href="6 things that make people happy according to scientists https://unbelievable-facts.com/2023/04/things-that-make-people-happy-according-to-scientists.html" target="_blank">6 things that make people happy according to scientists</a>).<br /><br /><hr /><br />* You might also like to consult: <a href="https://www.wineaustralia.com/news/market-bulletin/issue-298" target="_blank">The steady wine markets of Denmark and Sweden</a>, which notes that “according to Wine Intelligence, there are more weekly wine drinkers in Sweden now than before the pandemic, making up 34% of the population.” If you want to pursue the topic of the cultural differences within the Nordic region, then take a look at The Geography Bible video on: <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-R6mDGBL1ZQ" target="_blank">What if the Nordic countries united?</a> (There is also a video about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AUIBwXObFU" target="_blank">What are the world's happiest and unhappiest countries?</a>)<br /><br />** In spite of the curvature, this is what is called a “linear effect”. Non-linear effects occur very rapidly, almost in the blink of an eye. A classic example is the recent effects of Climate Change (<a href="https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/why-are-climate-impacts-escalating" target="_blank">Why are climate impacts escalating so quickly?</a>).<br /><br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-47451673272588274262023-10-02T00:30:00.061+02:002023-10-02T00:30:00.152+02:00Where is the current value-for-money in wine exports?As I explained in a much earlier post, I base my own wine purchases mainly on value for money. That is, I do not buy the highest-scoring wines, nor do I purchase the most-expensive (or cheapest) wines. Instead, I buy the wines that seem to offer the biggest bang for my buck — this combines the scores and the expenses into a single number (<a href="http://winegourd.blogspot.com/2016/05/choosing-value-for-money-wines.html" target="_blank">Choosing value-for-money wines</a>).<br /><br />Therefore, it always seems odd to me when I read reports that talk about individual broad-scale wine-industry characteristics (such as cost and volume), without ever comparing them with each other. The concept of value-for-money, for example, extends well beyond the relatively simple idea of a wine drinker buying individual wines.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtNj2G85jPQLlA5htVuFQgPeHEDmW9DLF0FjVWjsVrRjEP_TC-rqUcbSdC-vwbmJ0mwGIsKfE-Fnqk9GzxK3MS5OkW2KLirKyf18YBtaozu-4C0XLBmVJra49OTsUjCUqYQZpJ6w2SwNnPGtyoWLztYsCxAd4_IoymgnTj_1NHf3ZNMClaHwa5N9wC-_BV/s369/value.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="173" data-original-width="369" height="94" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhtNj2G85jPQLlA5htVuFQgPeHEDmW9DLF0FjVWjsVrRjEP_TC-rqUcbSdC-vwbmJ0mwGIsKfE-Fnqk9GzxK3MS5OkW2KLirKyf18YBtaozu-4C0XLBmVJra49OTsUjCUqYQZpJ6w2SwNnPGtyoWLztYsCxAd4_IoymgnTj_1NHf3ZNMClaHwa5N9wC-_BV/w200-h94/value.gif" width="200" /></a></div><br />A recent case in point comes from the World Bulk Wine Exhibition: <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/dissimilar-performances-among-worlds-leading-bulk-wine-exporting/" target="_blank">Dissimilar performances among the world’s leading bulk wine exporting countries</a>.<br /><br />That online article is about the top bulk wine exporters for January—May 2023, and lists the top 15 bulk-wine exporting countries based on value (million euros, €) and volume (million hectoliters, hl). However, to my mind, neither of these characteristics on their own tells us how well the various countries are doing. For example, it is no use selling lots of wine if you have to sell it very cheap.<br /><br />We can see this clearly, in this case, by the simple procedure of plotting a single graph showing both numbers for each country. I have done this in the graph below. Each point represents one of the 15 countries, with value plotted horizontally and volume vertically. The straight line is the linear regression, which indicates the average form of the relationship between the two sets of numbers.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgnHBQU28ZQUJOzoli_jEj7W6QAzOf3kV8eTFS0ZZa4fPRXrXXq21tEeXvucEwweZFClBbKwsF1XAyf9uks-MHx-y5o5PnMa5QHFcSQNDjiH1moOhJ6SJX3xvzGUHlIgncE7HSQ56C58meH3xmZHa6jj6_5nhSisnT4136NDo5pjeIWPSlIvmZtZjaQcqN/s1149/BulkWine3.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Graph of volume versus value for bulk wine exports" border="0" data-original-height="1149" data-original-width="1143" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjgnHBQU28ZQUJOzoli_jEj7W6QAzOf3kV8eTFS0ZZa4fPRXrXXq21tEeXvucEwweZFClBbKwsF1XAyf9uks-MHx-y5o5PnMa5QHFcSQNDjiH1moOhJ6SJX3xvzGUHlIgncE7HSQ56C58meH3xmZHa6jj6_5nhSisnT4136NDo5pjeIWPSlIvmZtZjaQcqN/w398-h400/BulkWine3.gif" title="Volume versus value for the 15 countries" width="398" /></a></div><br />I have labeled four of the countries, to illustrate value for money. The two countries above the line are doing very poorly (lots of volume but nor much value), and the two countries below the line are doing very well (less volume but lots of value).<br /><br />To make this clear in a table (or list), the thing to do is calculate the value for money, calculated as: € per hl. I have done this in the following table. This makes it obvious that New Zealand is doing twice as well as the second-ranked country (France), and two-and-a-quarter times as well as the USA. Similarly, Canada is doing very poorly, while Spain, Slovakia and North Macedonia are doing twice as well, but are still not doing really well.<br /><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0R90zaBNyKIpgJYrRqqfycYZC0_3TetK-Wp_JK9beWrPnUyzJUr_UZK-Ua13DzdUtPxhTp3dQ4MgSsIl-7ipj8YLJzNKYCRfjoTgksPIYO35ti7vFZFiVobdglCIjHigwY8Zh9631bAM7oOARWxkavQMm6_uxewwpMJhYdKz7aVafLn5h3IUIJ8B7q5GL/s680/Table.gif" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="Table of value for money in bulk wine exports" border="0" data-original-height="680" data-original-width="461" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh0R90zaBNyKIpgJYrRqqfycYZC0_3TetK-Wp_JK9beWrPnUyzJUr_UZK-Ua13DzdUtPxhTp3dQ4MgSsIl-7ipj8YLJzNKYCRfjoTgksPIYO35ti7vFZFiVobdglCIjHigwY8Zh9631bAM7oOARWxkavQMm6_uxewwpMJhYdKz7aVafLn5h3IUIJ8B7q5GL/w218-h320/Table.gif" title="Table of value for money" width="218" /></a></div><br />The concept of value for money is an important one; and I do wish that more of the people who present data for the wine industry would take it into account, when preparing their data presentations. In the meantime, you could do a lot worse than check out this year’s <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/events-interviews-sponsored-reports/look-inside-must-attend-world-bulk-wine-exhibition" target="_blank">Bulk Wine Exhibition</a>.<br /><br />As a final point, it is also important to emphasize, as <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/opinion-wine/devils-advocate-avoid-value-money-trap" target="_blank">Robert Joseph</a> has done recently, that value-for-money is often enforced by circumstances rather than being chosen by the producer. Spain’s poor showing above, for example, is quite likely to be enforced by their current over-production of cheap wine compared to demand. In this sense, it is perhaps fortunate that we are apparently now seeing the <a href="https://www.meiningers-international.com/wine/news/smallest-spanish-harvest-ever-recorded" target="_blank">Smallest Spanish harvest ever recorded</a>, with the steepest losses being seen in the hottest cultivation areas — reduced volume might restore the value-for-money.<br />David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.com0