It is time to act, even while we wait for climate change to be addressed

You are all up to your ears in the effects of Global Climate Change; and what is more, you are presumably thoroughly sick of hearing about it. Well, that is tough for all of us. This is not like the Covid-19 Pandemic, which will eventually fade away, just like every previous pandemic in recorded history (such as the Black Death plague, or the Spanish Flu influenza, the two biggest pandemics to date). Global Climate Change is here to stay, because it is the Earth that is changing, not just the people trying to live on it.

Anyone trying to make a living from agriculture needs to respond actively to this situation, not passively. This includes wine-makers. Let's start by reviewing the situation, before turning to possible responses.

You have all read endless reports about droughts and fires, and about floods and hail and thunderstorms (any recent issue of Wine Industry Insight’s daily New Brief lists plenty of them, every single day). This is because weather extremes are the most obvious effects of blanketing the Earth’s atmosphere in a layer of carbon dioxide. This blanket (which started appearing long ago, with the Industrial Revolution) traps heat, which turns the planet into a hothouse. This then changes atmospheric air-flow; and that, in turn, creates variability in climate, world-wide (see How climate change spurs megadroughts).

The effects became really obvious in the 1970s (How can you doubt global warming?), notably with earlier harvests of things like grapes (Grape harvest dates and the evidence for global warming). That is 50 years ago; but people are usually blind to change if it occurs slowly enough. So, none of us reacted, or expected anyone else to do so (Why have we left it so late to deal with climate change in the wine industry?) — except a bunch of Greenies talking about destruction of biodiversity and, later, environmental sustainability (and they turned out to be right).

Until now. Even governments are now reacting; and there is nothing more reactionary than a national government. There is a lot of talk, and even more talk. There are committee meetings, and investigative commissions have been formed. Proposals are expected, and eagerly awaited. After all, 2022 has had worse weather than most previous years, especially in the wine industry.

Governments are apparently aiming for what is called Climate Neutrality sometime over the next decade, or so, with scientists suggesting that the world can reach a system with 100% renewable energy before 2050 (On the history and future of 100% renewable energy systems research). Unfortunately, all that Neutrality means, in practice, is that things will stop getting worse; it does not mean that climate change will be reversed. * So, it sounds fine, in theory; but none of us should hold our breath. That is, even when (if) we get to Neutrality, the agricultural world may be even more different compared to what it is now.

Even worse, for people whose livelihood depends on agriculture, we need to decide what to do in the meantime, while we wait for Neutrality. Agriculture is changing before our eyes; and what are going to do about it? **

There seems to be a lot of people continuing blindly on, hoping against hope that they can cope with the worst of the changes. I don't really blame them — after all, the two World Wars must have been a bit of a shock when they started; and people took time to realize that action was needed, from everyone. More recently, the current drought in California started back around the year 2000 (Seven stats that explain the West’s epic drought), but it is only now being taken seriously; and it may well last until at least 2030.

So, we are talking here about things like  droughts and fires; and simply praying for rain will not be effective (Praying for rain as a hopeful harvest 2022 begins in Italy). Instead, we each need to think long and hard about what our personal reaction is going to be to trying to grow crops in places that are now rather unsuited to their healthy growth. The most obvious part of the water problem comes from growing crops that require more water than is currently available to them — in the past, water use and water availability were roughly balanced, but not any more. It took centuries for people  to get the previous balance right, but now we literally have a few years, instead.

To a biologist (like me), one obvious reaction is to swap to growing something that is suited to the current local climate conditions. This does not have to be a permanent change, of course. After all, the government reactions may be effective enough to return to some parts of the past, if the changes to date have not been irreversible. If so, then any personal response would be temporary, just to tide us over in the meantime. Sadly, trying to get from year to year sounds all too familiar to farmers, doesn’t it?

This sort of change is nothing special to a biologist. After all, even now some sorts of crops are doing better than others, depending on the local conditions. One recent comment in the wine industry (There may be hope for France’s wine, despite drought) notes that: “in some regions, there are lesser-grown varietals that are thriving in comparison to traditional grape varieties.” That is, not all grape varieties are the same in their response to droughts, for example — this is what Biodiversity means.

I am glad that I am not alone as a proponent of actively matching crops to the current climate, or Climate Adaptation as it is sometimes known. For example, Deirdre Des Jardins (Climate adaptation: match crops to climate) provides a carefully reasoned argument, using California as an example, although she does not explicitly address grapes.

Nor is it an easy suggestion when applied to grapes. Replacing annual crops is much easier, of course; and there are, for example, drought-tolerant varieties of many of them (eg. Drought-tolerant corn in the United States). This is why people need to start thinking about the topic now, with regard to perennial crops. It will take time, and the sooner we start, the better. Trials of different grape varieties take time, in any given region (a grapevine usually has a lifetime of 20-30 years). It takes even longer if new varieties need to be developed for specific circumstances (eg. UC breeds wine vines resistant to Pierce’s disease). There is also the possibility of abandoning grapes altogether (eg. Agave: the new drought-tolerant California crop?)! ***

Interestingly, the wine industry was once seen as a potential leader in addressing Climate Change. Way back in 2015, it was noted (Message in a bottle: the wine industry gives farmers a taste of what to expect from climate change):

The wine industry is sensitive to climate change, but grape growers also have the funding and knowledge to put themselves at the forefront of climate adaptation. Other farmers should watch with interest.

Does this sound like the current situation, to you? Well, actually, the funding part may still apply (Napa Valley wine grape farmers set to get part of $2 million in climate education funding):

Napa Valley Grapegrowers are set to receive a grant from the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Risk Management Agency to educate growers and producers on farm risk management and “climate smart” farm practices.

Note carefully, that this is not a “gloom and doom” blog post. In fact, it is quite the opposite. Climate Change is nothing more than change, and we need to change with it, that’s all. After all, there have been some positive effects noted in the wine industry for Global Climate Change, along with the negative ones:

Until the 2000s, climate change had positive effects. There are some appellations that have been transformed [by climate change] in terms of quality. Today the situation has completely changed. And we are seeing certain regions that are facing great difficulties.

So, it is time to act. Grape-growers cannot sit around watching their water resources becoming more erratic, or waiting for the next fire / hailstorm / flood. You can’t wait for your government, any more than it will wait for you. It is your farm, not theirs, and you need to think about what you should now be growing on it. It doesn’t matter where on the planet you are, this still applies to you, too — that is why it is called global climate change. We can’t continue to put all of our eggs in the same old basket.

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* Technically speaking, the climate will reach a new Stable State. This State will probably be different to its previous State — this is what tends to happen in physics. A simple example: the pen is in a Stable State while resting on the tabletop; when we knock it onto the floor, this is a new Stable State for the pen — the pen does not return to the tabletop on its own.

** Andrew Margan, of Margan Family Wines, has recently noted, fatalistically:

We’ve had enough of this, what with drought, bushfire smoke, Covid shutdowns and now floods. I guess that’s life and you just have to get on with it.

*** Update: How France’s wine industry is adapting to climate change:

The industry is trying to adapt to this onerous new reality through a variety of techniques, from bringing back forgotten grape varieties to moving their vineyards to new locations.