Monday, February 24, 2020

Regional diversity of grape varieties is important for climate change

There was a recent paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA that discussed the possible effects of global climate change on the grape-growing regions of the world. The wine media focussed almost entirely on one aspect of that paper: the expected reduction in suitability of many of the current prime locations (eg. Wine regions wiped out by projected climate change, disaster for some).

However, this was not actually the main point of that paper, as is indicated by its title:


Thus, the paper makes the important point that genetic diversity of grape varieties within each grape-growing region is the key to resisting climate change. This is a basic principle of biology, that genetic variation is a Good Thing, because even if one genotype is affected by a change in conditions, others will probably not be. (For a discussion of genetics and grape varieties, see Grape clones and varieties are not always what they seem.)

The idea can be made clear by thinking about a family. One way of ensuring the long-term continuation of the family is to have lots of children, on the principle that at least some of them will survive. However, this is true only up to a point. If the children all have very similar genes (as they probably will if they all have the same two parents), then they will probably all be affected by the same sorts of problems, such as lack of resistance to a particular disease. This limitation can be addressed by having children who have lots of different genes (ie. different genotypes) — it will then take lots of different problems to affect all of them.

Biologists have long understood this principle of genetic diversity, because it applies throughout the biological world, including agriculture — putting all of your eggs in one basket is not a good long-term idea. Farmers know this perfectly well, and it was the purpose of the PNAS paper to analyze the grape-growing situation in detail, to make some predictions about what might be done in response to climate change. The bit about reduction in the suitability of many current areas was simply scene-setting. These predictions not all bad, of course — New Zealand and Germany were identified as places expected not only to survive but to gain in output, for example.

So, if grape-growers are willing to continue doing what their predecessors did, which was to grow whatever varieties did best in each local area (see Palaeogenomic insights into the origins of French grapevine diversity), then many (if not most) vineyards could continue to exist, even under quite serious effects of climate change. However, some areas will no longer be suitable for any of the currently known varieties, and may require us to develop new late-ripening varieties for the hottest areas. Also, many unplanted areas will become suitable for an increasingly broad range of the currently known varieties (see last week’s post on Climate change and the most northerly vineyards in Europe).

Genetic diversity is an important issue, because observers have sometimes expressed concern about the diversity of wine-grapes narrowing down to a few so-called “international” varieties, often presented as mono-varietal wines. That is, trying to maximize economic returns has resulted in growers specializing in a few varieties that they believe will sell well when turned into wine. So, the recent trend has been to reduce regional genetic diversity, not maintain or increase it, because the economic pressures contradict this idea. Putting all of your eggs in one basket may make short-term economic sense, but not long-term biological sense.

Current varietal diversity

This leads me to wonder which grape-growing areas currently have the most (and least) diversity of grape varieties. Surprisingly, the PNAS paper does not tell me this. So, I thought that I should work it out for myself.

I have used the data from the Database of Regional, National and Global Winegrape Bearing Areas by Variety. This compendium has vineyard area data (in hectares) from 2010, for 1,446 named grape varieties in 642 defined grape-growing regions. Some of these regions are whole countries, if their wine industry is quite small; and countries with very small vineyard areas are excluded entirely. However, most of the data refer to local regions within each country.

You will, of course, never have heard of the vast majority of the varieties! There have probably been at least 10,000 of them recorded at some time in history; and many of them are not very genetically different from each other (see: How many grape clones are there per variety?).

I have put the complete results at the bottom of this post, along with an explanation of the various ways of mathematically measuring diversity. Here, I will simply summarize the main patterns in the data.

We can start with a simple count of the number of varieties (called Richness), which turns out to vary from 1 to 258, which is a lot of grape varieties for any one location — in this case, in Verona, in Italy. Indeed, there 12 regions with > 200 varieties, as shown in the graph, all of them in Italy.


Half of the regions have 15—45 varieties, which may still be more than you were expecting. On the other hand, there are 10 regions with only one recorded grape variety, 5 of them in the USA (Arizona, Arkansas, Georgia, North Carolina, Orange), 4 in China, and 1 in Turkey.

However, for our purposes we need to look at Diversity, which takes into account what is called Evenness. Evenness, and thus diversity, is at its maximum when all of the varieties are equally abundant (measured in hectares, in this case). This means an area dominated by only a few varieties is not very diverse, even if there are lots of rare varieties in the same region. This is actually the case for those regions with the largest numbers of varieties — most of those varieties are very rare, and are thus not making a big contribution to diversity.

So, let's look at the average regional diversity for the top 20 wine-producing countries of 2019 (as listed by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine). This is shown in the table, with two mathematical measures of diversity (as explained at the bottom of the post). Diversity represents the “effective” number of varieties — the amount of diversity that would exist if all of the varieties were equally abundant.

Country

Italy
France
Spain
United States
Argentina
Australia
Chile
South Africa
China
Germany
Portugal
Russia
Romania
Hungary
New Zealand
Brazil
Austria
Greece
Georgia
Switzerland
Number of
regions
110
72
36
89
28
94
9
9
10
13
9
2
8
22
11
1
4
13
1
18
Richness

83.5
30.5
31.5
17
43.5
19
29
18
2
42
102
34.5
21.5
53
9
103
35.5
20
23
36
Shannon
Diversity

9.91
6.71
5.19
8.04
12.92
7.00
7.29
10.36
1.30
10.45
13.78
17.25
5.60
14.63
4.26
10.78
13.59
6.88
4.87
5.56
Simpson
Diversity

5.63
4.72
3.34
5.89
7.33
4.98
4.54
8.28
1.19
6.26
8.07
11.91
3.69
9.29
3.35
5.49
8.97
4.82
3.07
2.80

So, in Italy’s case there is an average of 83 grape varieties per region (median = 83.5), which seems like a lot, but most of the varieties are very rare, so there is only as much diversity as there would be for an average of 10 varieties per region if they were equally abundant (median Shannon Diversity = 9.91). A similar situation exists for Spain, Portugal, Brazil and Switzerland — the large number of varieties does not represent a lot of diversity.

On the other hand, places like the USA, South Africa and New Zealand have far fewer varieties, but those varieties are more equally abundant, so that diversity is still fairly high.

This means that, ultimately, it is Hungary that does best in terms of grape-vine diversity, at the regional level. No matter how you measure diversity, the top local regions are in Hungary (7 regions), Italy (2 regions), Czechia (1 region), and the USA (Kentucky). Obviously, in the latter case there is not a big area of grape-vines, but there are 25 recorded varieties and these are fairly evenly abundant — this is the essence of biological diversity.

At this stage, of course, we have little idea which, if any, of these grape varieties will be suitable for wine-making in any particular region. The point, though, is that we do currently, have a lot of diversity available, if we have the incentive to do something practical with it. All it takes is a willingness to move the current varieties to new regions, with a suitable climate, and use other varieties in the current regions, when they are happy there. We can also develop new varieties from the ones we have, although it does seem like it would be easier to trial the currently available varieties first.

What the wine industry and the wine-drinking public will think about all of this is another matter. Some of those Hungarian varieties have names that you may have trouble working out how to pronounce!



Grape variety diversity

There are two components of diversity, called richness and evenness. Richness, in this case, is simply a count of the number of varieties in the region. Evenness, on the other hand, refers to how much difference there is in abundance among the varieties (measured in hectares, in this case). Diversity will be at its maximum when all of the varieties have equal abundance, and it reduces as the varietal abundances become more uneven. Obviously, varieties are never in equal abundance in any given region — indeed, most grape varieties are very rare.

So, attempts to measure true diversity take into account both richness and evenness, Sadly, there are many mathematical ways to do this. They differ in how much mathematical weight they give to the rarer varieties, varying from equal weight down to very little. Three measures of diversity are listed for each region in the table below.

If we treat all varieties as equal (weighting using the harmonic mean) then diversity = richness. If we give a fair bit of weight (weighting using the geometric mean) then we call this the Shannon Diversity. If we apply even more weight (weighting using the arithmetic mean) then we call this the Simpson Diversity.

All three measures contain relevant (but somewhat different) information; and so it is quite usual to list all three of them.

Country

Algeria
Argentina



























Armenia
Australia





























































































Austria



Brazil
Bulgaria





Canada

Chile








China









Croatia












Cyprus
Czechia

Ethiopia
France







































































Georgia
Germany












Greece












Hungary





















Israel
Italy













































































































Japan




Kazakhstan





Luxembourg
Mexico




Moldova
Morocco
Myanmar
New Zealand










Peru



Portugal








Romania







Russia

Serbia
Slovakia





Slovenia









South Africa









Spain



































Switzerland

















Taiwan
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkey






Ukraine
United Kingdom
United States
























































































Uruguay
Region of planting


25 de Mayo
9 de Julio
Albardon
Angaco
Catamarca
Caucete
Junin
La Rioja
Lavalle
Lujan de Cuyo
Maipu
Neuquen
Other-Argentina
Other-Mendoza
Other-San Juan
Pocito
Rawson
Rio Negro
Rivadavia
Salta
San Martin
San Martin S
San Rafael
Santa Rosa
Sarmiento
Tunuyan
Tupungato
Ullum

Adelaide Hills
Adelaide Plains
Alpine Valleys
Australian Capital Territory
Barossa - other
Barossa Valley
Beechworth
Bendigo
Big Rivers - other
Blackwood Valley
Canberra District (ACT)
Canberra District (NSW)
Central Ranges - other
Central Victoria - other
Central Western Australia
Clare Valley
Coonawarra
Cowra
Currency Creek
Eastern Plains, Inland and North of WA
Eden Valley
Far North - Other
Fleurieu - other
Geelong
Geographe
Gippsland
Glenrowan
Goulburn Valley
Grampians
Granite Belt
Great Southern
Greater Perth - other
Gundagai
Hastings River
Heathcote
Henty
Hilltops
Hunter
Hunter Valley - other
Kangaroo Island
King Valley
Langhorne Creek
Limestone Coast - other
Lower Murray - other
Macedon Ranges
Manjimup
Margaret River
McLaren Vale
Mornington Peninsula
Mount Benson
Mount Lofty Ranges - other
Mudgee
Murray Darling - NSW
Murray Darling - VIC
New England Australia
North East Victoria - other
North West Victoria - other
Northern Rivers - other
Northern Slopes - other
Orange
Padthaway
Peel
Pemberton
Perricoota
Perth Hills
Port Phillip - other
Pyrenees
Queensland - other
Riverina
Riverland
Robe
Rutherglen
Shoalhaven Coast
South Burnett
South Coast - other
South West Australia - other
Southern Fleurieu
Southern Flinders Ranges
Southern Highlands
Southern NSW - other
Strathbogie Ranges
Sunbury
Swan District
Swan Hill (NSW)
Swan Hill (VIC)
Tasmania
The Peninsulas
Tumbarumba
Upper Goulburn
Western Australian South East Coastal
Western Plains - other
Western Victoria - other
Wrattonbully
Yarra Valley
Burgenland
Niederosterreich
Steiermark
Wien and other Bundeslander

Severen tsentralen
Severoiztochen
Severozapaden
Yugoiztochen
Yugozapaden
Yuzhen tsentralen
British Colombia
Ontario
Araucania
Atacama
Coquimbo
De Los Lagos
Del Bio Bio
Del Maule
Metropolitana
O'Higgins
Valparaiso
Beijing
Gansu
Ningxia
other region
Shandong
ShanXi
Sichuan
Tianjin
Xinjiang
Yantai
Dalmatinska Zagora
Hrvatsko Primorje
Istra
Moslavina
Other Regions
Plesivica
Podunavlje
Pokuplje
Prigorje - Bilogora
Sjeverna Dalmacija
Slavonija
Srednja Juzna Dalmacija
Zagorje-Medimurje

Cechy
Morava

Ain
Aisne
Allier
Alpes-de-Haute-Provence
Alpes-Maritimes
Ardeche
Ariege
Aube
Aude
Aveyron
Bas-Rhin
Bouches-du-Rhone
Cantal
Charente
Charente-Maritime
Cher
Correze
Corse-du-Sud
Cote-d'Or
Deux-Sevres
Dordogne
Doubs
Drome
Eure-et-Loire
Gard
Gers
Gironde
Haute-Corse
Haute-Garonne
Haute-Loire
Haute-Marne
Hautes-Alpes
Haute-Saone
Haute-Savoie
Hautes-Pyrenees
Haut-Rhin
Herault
Indre
Indre-et-Loire
Isere
Jura
Landes
Loire
Loire-Atlantique
Loiret
Loir-et-Cher
Lot
Lot-et-Garonne
Lozere
Maine-et-Loire
Marne
Mayenne
Meurthe-et-Moselle
Meuse
Moselle
Nievre
Puy-de-Dome
Pyrenees-Atlantiques
Pyrenees-Orientales
Rhone
Saone-et-Loire
Sarthe
Savoie
Seine-et-Marne
Tarn
Tarn-et-Garonne
Var
Vaucluse
Vendee
Vienne
Vosges
Yonne

Ahr
Baden
Franken
Hessische Bergstrass
Mittelrhein
Mosel-Saar-Ruwer
Nahe
Rheingau
Rheinhesse
Rhein-Pfalz
Saale-Unstrut
Sachsen
Wurttemberg
Anatoliki Makedonia, Thraki
Attiki
Dytiki Ellada
Dytiki Makedonia
Ionia Nisia
Ipeiros
Kentriki Makedonia
Kriti
Notio Aigaio
Peloponissos
Sterea Ellada
Thessalia
Vorreio Aigaio
Badacsony
Balatonboglar
Balatonfelvidek
Balatonfured-Csopak
Bukk
Csongrad
Eger
Etyek-Budai
Hajos-bajai
Kunsag
Matra
Mor
Nagy-Somlo
Neszmely
Pannonhalma
Pecs
Sopron
Szekszard
Tokaj
Tolna
Villany
Zala

Agrigento
Alessandria
Ancona
Arezzo
Ascoli Piceno
Asti
Avellino
Bari
Barletta-Andria-Trani
Belluno
Benevento
Bergamo
Biella
Bologna
Bolzano-Bozen
Brescia
Brindisi
Cagliari
Caltanissetta
Campobasso
Carbonia-Iglesias
Caserta
Catania
Catanzaro
Chieti
Como
Cosenza
Cremona
Crotone
Cuneo
Enna
Fermo
Ferrara
Firenze
Foggia
Forlì-Cesena
Frosinone
Genova
Gorizia
Grosseto
Imperia
Isernia
La Spezia
L'Aquila
Latina
Lecce
Lecco
Livorno
Lodi
Lucca
Macerata
Mantova
Massa-Carrara
Matera
Medio Campidano
Messina
Milano
Modena
Monza e della Brianza
Napoli
Novara
Nuoro
Ogliastra
Olbia-Tempio
Oristano
Padova
Palermo
Parma
Pavia
Perugia
Pesaro e Urbino
Pescara
Piacenza
Pisa
Pistoia
Pordenone
Potenza
Prato
Ragusa
Ravenna
Reggio di Calabria
Reggio nell'Emilia
Rieti
Rimini
Roma
Rovigo
Salerno
Sassari
Savona
Siena
Siracusa
Sondrio
Taranto
Teramo
Terni
Torino
Trapani
Trento
Treviso
Trieste
Udine
Valle d'Aosta
Varese
Venezia
Verbano-Cusio-Ossola
Vercelli
Verona
Vibo Valentia
Vicenza
Viterbo
Hokkaido
Nagano
other region
Yamagata
Yamanashi
Almaty
East - Kazakhstan
Other-region
South - Kazakhstan
West - Kazakhstan
Zhambyl

Aguascalientes
Sonora
Suma Baja California
Suma Coahuila
Zacatecas



Auckland
Canterbury
Gisborne
Hawkes Bay
Marlborough
Nelson
Otago
Other Regions
Waikato
Waipara
Wairarapa
Arequipa
Lima
Moquegua
Tacna
Alentejo
Algarve
Alto Tras-os-Montes
Beira Interior
Beira Litoral
Entre Douro e Minho
Regiao Autonoma da Madeira (PT)
Regiao Autonoma dos Acores
Ribatejo e Oeste
Bucuresti - Ilfov
Centru
Nord-Est
Nord-Vest
Sud - Muntenia
Sud-Est
Sud-Vest Oltenia
Vest
Krasnodar Krai
Rostov Oblast

Juznoslovenska
Malokarpatska
Nitrianska
Stredoslovenska
Tokajska
Vychodoslovenska
Outside wine-growing districts
Podravje - Prekmurje
Podravje - Stajerska Slovenija
Posavje - Bela krajina
Posavje - Bizeljsko Sremic
Posavje - Dolenjska
Primorje - Goriska brda (Brda)
Primorje - Kras
Primorje - Slovenska Istra
Primorje - Vipavska dolina (Vipava)
Breedekloof
Little Karoo
Malmesbury
Olifants River
Orange River
Paarl
Robertson
Stellenbosch
Worcester
South Korea Total
Alava
Albacete
Alicante
Almeria, Granada, Jaen, Sevilla
Avila, Palencia, Salamanca, Segovia, Soria
Badajoz
Barcelona
Burgos
Caceres
Cadiz
Canarias
Cantabria
Castellon
Ciudad Real
Comunidad de Madrid
Comunidad Foral de Navarra
Cordoba
Cuenca
Galicia
Girona, Lleida
Guadalajara
Guipuzcoa, Vizcaya
Huelva
Huesca, Teruel
Illes Balears
La Rioja
Leon
Malaga
Principado de Asturias
Region de Murcia
Tarragona
Toledo
Valencia
Valladolid
Zamora
Zaragoza
Aargau
Basel-Landschaft
Bern
Fribourg
Geneva
Graub_nden
Jura
Lucerne
Neuchytel
other region
Schaffhausen
Schwyz
St. Gallen
Thurgau
Ticino
Valais
Vaud
Zurich



Akdeniz
Ege
Guney Dogu
Marmara
Orta Dogu
Orta Guney
Orta Kuzey


Alameda
Amador
Arizona
Arkansas
Benton Co.
Butte
Calaveras
Chautauqua-Erie
Colorado
Columbia Gorge
Columbia River
Columbia Valley
Colusa
Contra Costa
Douglas Co.
El Dorado
Finger Lakes
Fresno
Georgia
Glenn
Horse Heaven Hills
Humboldt
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Jackson Co.
Josephine Co.
Kentucky
Kern
Kings
Lake
Lake Chelan
Lane Co.
Los Angeles
Madera
Marin
Marion Co.
Mariposa
Mendocino
Merced
Michigan
Minnesota
Missouri
Monterey
Napa
Nevada
North Carolina
Ohio
Orange
Other New York
Other W. Valley
Pennsylvania
Placer
Polk Co.
Puget Sound
Rattlesnake Hills
Red Mountain
Riverside
Sacramento
San Benito
San Bernardino
San Diego
San Joaquin
San Luis Obispo
San Mateo
Santa Barbara
Santa Clara
Santa Cruz
Shasta
Siskiyou
Snipes Mountain
Solano
Sonoma
Stanislaus
Sutter
Tehama
Texas
Trinity
Tulare
Tuolumne
Ventura
Virginia
Wahluke Slope
Walla Walla Valley
Washington Co.
Yakima Valley
Yamhill Co.
Yolo
Yuba
 
Richness

8
46
36
30
34
28
43
47
45
46
46
45
31
45
49
44
36
30
48
48
38
50
41
47
47
41
36
37
25
7
32
27
35
6
9
39
18
24
18
16
15
25
19
12
15
38
25
20
19
13
28
3
9
30
26
20
16
34
19
31
25
15
12
13
25
11
22
31
6
15
30
34
19
12
18
12
36
38
26
8
22
30
29
34
15
15
12
14
14
27
24
22
18
18
28
17
22
32
38
42
12
35
19
17
24
11
28
12
20
14
15
18
30
19
32
23
11
13
18
10
19
14
19
30
36
37
33
35
103
13
13
14
13
15
14
67
30
5
17
23
3
29
52
29
35
29
1
7
16
2
1
6
1
1
4
2
22
21
21
22
2
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
22
17
31
34
6
29
5
22
38
37
80
30
8
105
47
22
94
19
42
45
16
23
29
22
38
44
31
75
2
97
71
49
41
67
10
8
33
12
26
37
19
116
31
35
26
20
52
25
42
27
41
57
69
8
36
6
3
16
11
20
16
21
53
59
28
19
26
29
5
58
62
75
110
44
44
11
30
23
23
42
49
25
23
46
50
28
67
60
31
24
45
25
18
20
15
15
13
30
29
19
30
22
28
12
61
51
54
66
36
43
63
62
54
89
69
32
43
51
37
52
50
57
30
52
54
63
12
91
82
133
201
172
79
93
220
216
50
111
58
35
92
67
106
193
62
62
208
45
114
74
66
107
32
142
40
50
82
45
141
60
190
236
87
107
59
49
221
40
140
62
34
91
157
32
117
23
186
152
83
193
70
59
65
37
94
7
73
39
57
45
43
84
217
78
79
61
161
118
42
85
170
115
69
117
60
32
93
88
100
84
80
119
124
161
65
44
201
36
38
207
60
121
103
99
128
236
37
61
54
37
163
18
28
258
50
210
111
8
4
14
3
4
17
17
17
17
16
17
12
3
4
11
5
3
39
10
11
9
18
9
9
9
9
8
8
23
9
9
17
11
19
19
102
58
182
166
195
102
9
11
143
2
18
27
19
24
27
24
17
49
20
6
37
34
36
35
22
33
8
8
11
9
8
6
10
5
8
11
18
18
18
18
16
18
18
18
18
5
23
61
42
37
36
59
35
21
37
13
32
13
28
47
25
23
19
61
50
34
25
14
15
50
21
23
22
14
8
28
38
46
57
31
32
51
38
36
40
32
50
33
11
30
15
36
36
27
37
33
46
51
34
44
4
13
10
10
27
1
14
3
9
4
22
44
29
36
1
1
9
8
33
11
12
10
10
22
11
25
11
38
31
42
1
8
20
14
22
12
30
11
11
44
25
12
34
14
9
15
46
5
9
11
43
25
20
18
13
41
48
19
1
19
1
36
9
44
18
10
5
19
14
39
36
26
14
26
52
52
6
41
34
16
11
10
7
29
52
32
5
13
19
10
31
5
12
24
19
13
10
26
10
32
14
42
Shannon
Diversity

6.32
15.26
10.89
5.13
8.01
6.41
13.88
13.97
10.36
15.93
7.84
15.22
6.96
14.04
12.01
11.28
8.50
6.53
15.84
14.82
6.46
13.83
15.26
15.21
16.35
14.13
8.25
9.52
14.18
5.27
10.56
10.10
11.79
5.66
2.42
5.91
8.45
5.32
6.93
6.55
8.25
8.51
5.69
5.36
7.85
6.96
4.10
4.84
5.84
9.60
7.13
2.06
3.44
7.20
8.72
6.79
4.86
10.18
3.93
13.31
8.08
6.57
3.76
9.00
5.69
5.99
5.66
6.92
2.99
5.52
12.75
6.15
6.27
5.11
6.61
7.45
8.90
6.04
5.58
5.03
6.09
7.06
9.42
9.11
5.50
7.12
8.30
5.60
7.15
7.87
7.63
8.28
7.36
6.50
9.55
6.04
6.03
11.79
11.86
9.68
5.79
8.70
12.37
7.79
13.68
7.58
8.07
2.14
10.44
7.42
8.56
8.08
12.18
9.46
12.39
5.43
5.55
4.79
8.25
4.88
6.55
6.93
5.02
7.04
13.60
9.22
13.57
14.56
10.78
8.46
10.99
9.77
10.39
5.99
7.47
18.80
15.34
4.44
12.08
8.80
3.00
10.30
8.91
5.66
7.29
5.61
1.00
3.20
2.34
1.54
1.00
4.55
1.00
1.00
2.72
1.05
11.64
6.13
5.55
10.24
1.90
14.02
5.21
9.14
9.32
14.32
5.75
7.92
11.62
7.00
16.57
20.82
3.19
8.30
2.18
3.72
13.56
11.14
12.60
9.10
1.77
14.23
8.96
7.92
13.26
7.87
1.42
1.73
2.32
4.76
6.80
2.53
10.11
6.95
8.47
5.88
1.82
11.37
10.20
3.76
11.33
11.06
3.11
2.81
10.56
5.38
5.40
8.08
7.49
16.04
9.51
4.13
6.80
5.17
12.14
4.81
3.38
8.87
7.31
4.19
9.66
4.81
6.20
2.97
2.65
6.42
6.63
8.61
2.61
3.33
6.01
10.57
1.35
3.31
5.93
6.28
2.83
12.69
11.91
9.82
7.51
18.19
13.40
2.20
2.20
4.87
4.90
8.72
10.46
6.94
4.14
4.64
13.40
2.27
16.84
15.79
15.80
13.20
10.45
11.17
1.89
5.38
4.15
6.88
4.10
14.75
7.43
9.16
9.90
3.79
7.69
2.64
9.62
20.85
7.34
13.13
17.84
14.54
21.88
22.27
16.95
23.02
24.32
11.61
7.70
17.97
14.72
21.78
6.45
12.32
2.83
20.49
12.83
5.67
10.06
14.89
7.78
8.88
6.18
10.16
6.93
5.36
19.25
14.05
13.53
11.09
9.27
7.79
10.65
17.12
11.94
10.47
11.72
4.48
9.78
3.76
20.04
6.16
12.95
5.32
11.71
16.06
14.81
2.54
6.97
9.89
12.62
7.88
4.23
17.20
4.44
17.08
17.38
13.28
9.39
5.44
11.42
9.62
2.62
13.76
4.81
10.90
10.72
11.67
16.78
17.98
17.61
26.42
17.85
10.76
10.00
12.45
7.22
2.90
9.93
6.73
2.97
1.63
5.81
16.90
12.76
9.86
18.39
8.73
14.94
7.32
3.09
9.09
8.35
5.53
10.83
5.53
7.59
6.66
4.22
14.34
6.86
16.59
4.66
12.54
10.54
14.64
8.87
5.71
4.37
2.63
1.53
10.87
3.54
19.06
9.27
9.27
11.52
7.30
9.88
15.13
15.25
16.81
13.50
6.73
3.88
10.81
9.26
14.00
19.02
4.62
2.79
7.53
2.32
3.46
5.05
8.11
8.55
5.71
5.98
2.21
7.15
2.74
2.25
8.98
4.50
2.40
12.41
6.29
5.65
7.31
5.61
4.15
7.18
2.50
5.23
2.32
2.06
17.17
4.26
4.03
4.93
4.34
4.26
3.58
16.71
10.77
20.77
19.65
13.78
9.00
5.60
3.31
19.57
1.68
8.06
5.18
3.54
5.62
11.50
5.57
12.62
20.37
14.13
4.08
15.94
16.32
17.00
15.29
3.76
14.85
6.39
5.90
9.07
7.65
6.67
4.54
7.91
2.37
4.52
9.60
11.79
9.60
10.36
8.86
4.50
11.41
11.32
10.09
11.76
3.55
4.14
11.84
5.54
16.32
7.10
5.76
8.07
1.36
15.13
1.58
5.39
9.22
10.85
2.99
4.16
4.99
1.91
6.61
11.65
12.71
4.07
3.58
1.32
11.65
12.48
2.75
4.51
2.68
4.14
2.42
11.22
4.05
5.53
3.91
4.53
5.98
5.28
5.83
6.28
5.30
11.00
2.93
6.84
11.79
3.66
7.79
3.65
8.94
4.77
4.44
2.81
9.29
4.19
5.87
2.86
6.47
5.46
9.24
10.33
1.00
6.31
2.22
2.72
2.70
12.76
15.88
8.73
5.54
1.00
1.00
2.26
3.91
13.37
1.79
10.59
7.67
7.87
8.40
4.54
9.48
5.22
15.27
16.28
14.26
1.00
6.34
7.87
8.10
15.92
10.01
17.74
8.33
6.42
21.51
11.27
8.14
7.81
10.39
2.82
7.59
13.43
2.01
3.05
7.28
10.01
10.39
13.39
10.55
10.96
7.33
6.91
9.69
1.00
5.34
1.00
15.49
3.88
11.90
10.10
2.26
3.50
7.97
4.95
15.82
9.74
8.39
2.52
12.87
9.27
10.42
3.46
7.51
10.59
4.55
4.45
9.25
6.66
10.31
8.16
13.33
4.02
3.86
14.12
7.22
15.39
3.34
3.73
16.08
7.66
6.35
3.16
8.90
2.23
8.47
8.10
11.30
Simpson
Diversity

5.41
8.57
5.60
2.70
4.21
4.36
7.57
9.83
6.22
11.19
3.72
9.31
4.99
9.26
7.09
5.67
3.91
3.12
10.27
10.66
4.29
9.07
9.35
11.86
11.41
8.77
4.68
6.11
10.71
4.14
7.80
6.31
8.42
5.33
1.66
3.15
6.28
3.01
5.16
5.61
6.81
5.69
4.51
3.15
5.09
4.67
2.64
3.12
4.01
7.57
5.02
1.98
2.91
4.65
6.80
4.67
3.44
6.41
2.31
9.24
6.58
4.21
2.75
6.96
2.79
4.40
3.85
4.88
2.13
3.69
10.14
4.11
4.49
3.86
4.43
6.49
6.81
3.25
3.69
4.76
3.29
4.94
6.70
6.05
3.70
5.41
6.74
3.79
5.56
5.70
5.25
5.51
5.33
4.56
6.63
4.27
3.86
7.18
7.42
5.99
4.75
4.42
9.87
5.63
9.04
6.51
4.84
1.49
8.93
5.65
7.17
5.66
9.29
6.68
7.48
3.85
4.18
3.69
6.81
3.73
4.05
5.38
3.58
5.14
8.62
4.51
10.86
9.31
5.49
7.02
10.11
8.17
9.18
4.12
5.69
12.75
10.50
4.12
8.56
6.42
3.00
7.25
5.34
3.24
4.54
3.99
1.00
2.20
1.63
1.36
1.00
3.86
1.00
1.00
2.16
1.02
6.61
2.82
3.00
7.06
1.82
9.76
2.61
5.86
5.59
10.83
2.67
3.78
7.92
4.13
12.19
17.27
2.55
5.38
1.78
2.80
8.83
8.26
7.89
5.49
1.40
9.28
5.80
6.91
7.12
6.04
1.13
1.23
1.79
3.03
4.87
1.94
6.24
5.14
5.65
3.47
1.69
6.96
6.57
2.65
8.40
5.86
2.10
1.97
6.99
4.81
3.29
4.77
6.34
10.69
7.19
2.75
4.27
4.04
9.26
3.33
1.85
7.98
4.41
2.28
5.68
4.44
3.95
2.93
2.37
4.98
5.44
6.42
1.63
2.26
4.66
7.86
1.13
2.77
3.83
4.26
2.61
10.41
6.07
6.90
3.58
13.60
11.09
1.96
1.55
3.07
2.55
5.22
6.26
3.64
2.17
2.56
8.18
1.51
11.37
9.64
11.84
10.19
7.38
8.41
1.27
3.64
2.75
5.00
3.17
11.05
5.66
7.58
6.42
2.04
4.82
1.81
4.40
16.88
3.35
5.67
11.86
9.15
14.43
16.19
9.95
15.06
18.39
8.67
5.34
13.05
8.71
15.26
2.86
7.49
1.99
15.00
9.43
2.35
8.79
8.18
5.12
5.09
2.36
5.19
3.74
2.98
9.23
6.04
6.54
7.05
5.47
5.34
6.42
13.58
5.78
3.98
7.71
2.11
3.55
2.02
14.05
2.74
6.17
3.10
7.35
7.51
9.83
1.49
5.14
5.55
6.69
3.74
1.89
8.30
2.62
10.84
10.36
9.39
3.35
4.20
6.42
6.01
1.53
8.37
1.93
6.96
5.95
7.79
7.10
10.59
11.54
14.66
10.83
6.26
6.24
8.00
4.48
2.21
6.62
4.06
1.61
1.18
2.84
13.06
5.74
4.47
11.56
6.11
8.64
3.42
1.77
5.59
3.33
2.57
6.04
2.47
3.74
3.53
2.16
7.69
3.85
11.55
2.30
6.95
4.33
8.23
5.67
3.15
1.86
1.52
1.16
3.65
1.98
12.17
6.02
4.56
6.75
3.13
6.89
10.40
9.85
10.88
7.48
4.37
2.10
5.30
4.91
7.10
11.03
3.73
2.32
5.87
2.18
3.25
2.83
5.79
7.24
3.99
3.79
2.01
6.14
2.59
1.77
7.47
4.27
2.21
10.00
4.65
4.21
6.65
4.29
2.93
6.29
1.69
4.09
1.59
1.65
14.00
3.35
2.80
3.23
3.81
3.06
2.49
10.38
6.49
12.07
10.68
8.07
6.64
3.80
2.05
9.77
1.51
6.68
2.87
2.08
3.70
8.38
3.69
11.10
13.02
10.81
3.22
11.15
10.88
11.61
11.74
2.74
9.41
5.37
4.50
7.61
6.96
6.00
3.82
6.73
1.68
3.21
8.57
9.21
6.73
8.28
6.15
2.90
8.99
9.30
8.10
8.86
2.95
2.52
8.27
2.99
11.52
4.90
3.35
5.67
1.12
10.70
1.20
3.80
7.33
7.70
1.91
3.12
3.32
1.30
4.23
9.02
10.13
2.67
2.15
1.10
7.51
9.95
1.87
3.42
1.71
3.39
1.46
7.97
2.37
2.84
2.77
2.68
3.65
2.67
2.71
3.65
3.14
6.66
1.66
6.02
6.62
2.63
4.09
1.97
4.54
2.23
2.47
1.55
5.48
2.43
2.89
2.53
4.14
3.76
8.76
7.43
1.00
4.75
2.07
2.32
2.14
8.95
9.70
5.97
2.54
1.00
1.00
1.67
3.04
9.71
1.32
9.58
6.82
6.77
6.34
3.13
6.42
3.22
10.00
10.29
9.21
1.00
5.82
5.56
6.26
13.17
8.87
12.33
7.33
4.16
14.80
8.73
6.60
4.77
8.73
2.34
4.70
9.59
1.47
2.45
5.90
7.04
7.37
9.88
7.76
9.52
4.57
4.26
7.28
1.00
2.54
1.00
10.35
2.42
5.01
7.32
1.57
3.00
5.63
3.08
9.82
7.19
4.97
1.66
8.62
5.89
6.49
2.87
4.30
6.94
3.17
3.11
8.70
6.36
6.60
6.00
10.20
3.78
2.22
10.96
5.82
11.37
2.60
2.04
12.25
5.55
4.41
2.09
6.48
1.54
4.41
6.65
7.58

5 comments:

  1. Here in California, the Italians who planted our North Coast vineyards from the 1870s to up Prohibition didn't necessarily know one red wine grape variety from another.

    But they did recognize that multiple red grape varieties growing contiguously (as "field blends") when "co-fermented" yielded a more satisfying wine.

    [See "When is a Zin not a Zin?," W. Blake Gray, Los Angeles Times online (March 11, 2010) URL: https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-mar-11-la-fo-oldvine-20100311-story.html]

    Today in California, we are a wine grape growing region characterized in agricultural terms as largely a "monoculture," producing in quantity a select few number of leading "noble grapes."

    [See "Development of the Grape Monoculture of Napa County," Teresa L. Bulman, Yearbook of the Association of Pacific Coast Geographers, Vol. 53 (1991), pp. 61-86 URL: https://www.jstor.org/stable/24040117?seq=1]

    The "unusual suspect" a.k.a. orphan wine grape varieties comprise a single digit "rounding error" percentage of our statewide production -- labors of love by grape growers seeking to preserve old vines vineyards, or forward thinkers seeking to introduce new wine grape varieties that might thrive in a future era of warmer climate.

    [See "The end of Cabernet in Napa Valley? Napa wineries are confronting climate change by planting new experimental vineyards," Esther Mobley, San Francisco Chronicle online (August 16, 2019)  URL: https://www.sfchronicle.com/wine/article/Napa-wineries-confront-climate-change-by-planting-14308512.php]

    ReplyDelete
  2. Supplemental . . .

    Excerpts from Morning Ag Clips: Farming News, Harvested Daily
    (posted August 22, 2019):

    "Saving cabernet from climate change;
    Partnership launches industry’s largest cabernet sauvignon rootstock x clonal trial"

    URL: https://www.morningagclips.com/saving-cabernet-from-climate-change/

    "DAVIS, Calif. — UC Cooperative Extension, Beckstoffer Vineyards and Duarte Nursery are launching the wine industry’s most ambitious cabernet sauvignon rootstock and clone trial in the Red Hills of Lake County to give the varietal greater resilience to climate change.

    "Cabernet sauvignon is California’s second top-selling varietal by volume, just behind chardonnay.

    " 'We have been growing cabernet sauvignon since the 1970s, and we are very proud to be part of this trial, which will help improve cabernet sauvignon growing for years to come,' said Andy Beckstoffer, owner and CEO of Beckstoffer Vineyards, which is providing the land and labor for the project.

    "The industry-driven trial – 'Climate-Smart Solutions for Cabernet Sauvignon Production' – includes 3,600 vines with 10 cabernet sauvignon clones on 10 rootstocks.

    " 'This trial will give us data that will help inform and improve growing practices for cabernet sauvignon across the state for the next two decades,' said the trial’s lead researcher, S. Kaan Kurtural, UC Cooperative Extension viticulture specialist at UC Davis Department of Viticulture and Enology and Oakville Experiment Station.

    . . .

    "Designed to address resiliency in a changing climate, the trial will examine which combinations give the best results with a focus on drought tolerance and water-use efficiency as well as crop yield and grape quality.

    " 'The idea behind the trial is to gain further insights into the interactive effects of rootstock selections crossed with cabernet clones and the impact of that on water relations and overall sustainability,' said Clint Nelson, ranch manager for Beckstoffer Vineyards Red Hills.

    " 'The trial will give us an understanding of the synergistic relationship of clone and rootstock and what combination drives the best quality and production,' he said.

    "According to Nelson, the trial will look at canopy architecture, yield components, water relations, traditional fruit chemistries, secondary metabolites such as aroma, mouthfeel and color, as well as overall vine performance.

    "Duarte Nursery is providing all of the planting material for the trial."

    ReplyDelete
  3. Further supplemental . . .

    Excerpt from UC Davis press release:

    "UC Davis Releases 5 New Wine Grape Varieties;
    Plants Are Resistant to Deadly Pierce’s Disease"
    (Posted December 18, 2019):

    URL: https://www.ucdavis.edu/food/news/uc-davis-releases-five-new-wine-grape-varieties/

    "For the first time since the 1980s, University of California, Davis, researchers have released new varieties of wine grapes. The five new varieties, three red and two white, are highly resistant to Pierce’s disease, which costs California grape growers more than $100 million a year. The new, traditionally bred varieties also produce high-quality fruit and wine.

    ". . . Rising temperatures from climate change could increase the spread of the disease, which is thought to be limited by cold winters. . . ."

    ReplyDelete
  4. [THERE IS A LIMITATION OF 4,096 CHARACTERS FOR SINGLE COMMENTS.
    THIS ARTICLE – REPRODUCED IN FULL -- HAS BEEN DIVIDED INTO TWO POSTS.]

    From The Wall Street Journal "Opinion" Section
    (March 11, 2020, Page A15):

    "Efficiency Isn't the Only Economic Virtue"

    URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/efficiency-isnt-the-only-economic-virtue-11583873155

    By William A. Galston
    "Politics & Ideas" Column

    Unexpected crises should force us to rethink our premises. As I was reflecting on the economic consequences of Covid-19, a thought struck me: What if the relentless pursuit of efficiency, which has dominated American business thinking for decades, has made the global economic system more vulnerable to shocks?

    As is almost always the case, further research revealed that my question is anything but original. Environmentalists, management gurus and a few economists all have explored the inevitable trade-off between efficiency and resilience.

    Consider the example offered by Roger L. Martin in the Harvard Business Review. Almonds once were grown in many places. But because some locations were better than others, and economies of scale were considerable, consolidation occurred. As the process continued, California’s Central Valley won out, and today more than 80% of the world’s almonds are produced there.

    Although this is the most efficient distribution of production, Mr. Martin says, it has a major drawback: “The almond industry designed away its redundancies, or slack, and in the process it lost the insurance that redundancy provides. One extreme local weather event or one pernicious virus could wipe out most of the world’s production.” As efficiency increased, resilience declined.

    This trade-off is unavoidable. Efficiency comes through optimal adaptation to an existing environment, while resilience requires the capacity to adapt to disruptive changes in the environment. As Mr. Martin puts it, “Resilient systems are typically characterized by the very features—diversity and redundancy, or slack—that efficiency seeks to destroy.”

    Creating resilient systems means thinking hard in advance about what could go wrong and incorporating effective countermeasures into designs. When you build an airplane, you don’t assume that pilots will get it right every time. You do your best to ensure that a pilot’s suboptimal choices under pressure don’t result in catastrophic failure.

    It also involves creating mechanisms to address threats that even the best minds could not envision in advance. This is why it was a good idea for the Obama administration to set up “a permanent monitoring and command group” at the Department of Homeland Security and another at the National Security Council to coordinate a whole-of-government response to future pandemics—and why it was such a bad idea for President Trump to dissolve both units in 2018. Inventing new command-and-control systems amid a burgeoning crisis isn’t easy.

    The tension between efficiency and resilience is ubiquitous. Much of modern business depends on air travel, which also speeds the spread of infectious diseases. Just-in-time production techniques minimize inventory inefficiencies. But they render businesses more vulnerable to supply disruptions. So do product designs that depend on sourcing parts across global supply chains.

    These considerations have broader implications for the process of globalization that has reshaped the world economy in recent decades. China is now the world’s largest manufacturer of the active pharmaceutical ingredients that give drugs their therapeutic effects. Food and Drug Commissioner Stephen Hahn said last month that the coronavirus epidemic had interrupted imports of an unnamed generic drug and that China’s production problems had heightened the risk of shortages of “critical medical products” in the U.S.

    [CONTINUED BELOW]

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  5. [CONTINUED FROM ABOVE]

    From The Wall Street Journal "Opinion" Section
    (March 11, 2020, Page A15):

    "Efficiency Isn't the Only Economic Virtue"

    URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/efficiency-isnt-the-only-economic-virtue-11583873155

    By William A. Galston
    "Politics & Ideas" Column

    In a prescient statement last July, a Pentagon official deemed China’s dominance of the drug-supply chain a national-security challenge. Last October a Food and Drug Administration official told Congress that because of the opaque complexity of the drug-supply chain, “we cannot determine with any precision the volume of [active pharmaceutical ingredients] that China is actually producing, or the volume . . . entering the U.S. market.”


    Resilience in the face of unexpected shocks is a public good, and experience is confirming what economic theory predicts: In the relentless quest for increased efficiency, which remains a key source of competitive advantage, the decisions made by individual market actors will produce, in the aggregate, a less-than-optimal supply of resiliency, a public good. To solve this collective-action problem, government must act as a counterweight.

    Government action entails risks of its own, of course. Government can go too far and make poor choices. Not long ago the Trump administration unwisely declared shrinking domestic steel production to be a national emergency. Today’s interruption of drug supplies from China is a much greater security threat.

    An autarkic economy makes no more sense than an economy fully open to global forces. The challenge is to strike a sensible balance between efficiency and resilience, which we won’t get unless the current crisis triggers a long-overdue debate on globalization and national security. This time we were taken by surprise. Next time we’ll have no such excuse.

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