Nevertheless, I have previously discussed long-term continuous records of vintage quality for several vineyard regions, including century-long recording for Bordeaux, in southern France (Two centuries of Bordeaux vintages — Tastet & Lawton) and Piemonte, in northern Italy (A century of Barolo vintages — Fontanafredda; More than a century of Barolo vintages — Marchesi di Barolo).
Intriguingly, the oldest known continuous vintage-quality record is for the Rheingau region in southern Germany, covering the years 1682-1884 CE, which thus includes scores for 203 consecutive vintages.
The Rheingau
The Rhine River generally flow north from the Alps to the North Sea. However, at one point it turns west, having encountered the southern part of the Taunus plateau. After 20 km or so it breaks northwards again, between the Taunus and Hunsrück plateaus, forming the best known part of the river, the Romantic Rhine so beloved of tourists, with the old castles on the tops of the river gorge, and even in the river itself.
The east-west part of the river is the Rheingau, with most of the vineyards on the gently sloping south-facing slopes next to the river itself.
As Stuart Pigott recently noted about the period covered by the vintage chart:
The Rheingau may be much older than the Medoc in Bordeaux, for example, but the most decisive period of its history came in the 18th century, beginning with the world’s first varietal plantings of the Riesling grape, the introduction of late harvesting, and the selective harvesting of bunches. All of this happened at the same property: Schloss Johannisberg, in 1720-21, 1775 and 1787, respectively. [Down the road, Schloss Vollrads is the oldest operating commercial winery in the world, with its first documented release of wine in 1211 CE.]Vintage chart
For a century following the breakthrough vintage of 1811, Rheingau Rieslings were the most sought-after and expensive wines in the world. By the 1850s, the Rheingau was on a roll. The majority of the region’s wines were dry, but those that wrote the headlines were sweet wines made from nobly rotten grapes. Then, at the end of the 19th century, it was overtaken by the Mosel.
The vintage chart in question appears as Table V of a book called Karte und Statistik des Weinbaues im Rheingau, compiled in 1885 by Heinrich Wilhelm Dahlen. This book is available online at the Landesbibliothekszentrum Rheinland-Pfalz.
The chart itself is entitled Uebersicht von Menge und Güte der Wein-Erträge in dem vormaligen Herzogthume Nassau in den Jahren 1682 bis 1884 (Overview of the quantity and quality of the wine-income in the former duchy of Nassau in the years 1682 to 1884). A direct link to the chart is available here.
The chart uses a color code to indicate the wine quality for each vintage, along with a written indication of the quantity of the harvest. The quantity is indicated by words in the first three columns of the chart, but there are actual volumes (in hectoliters) in the final column; the length of the colored bars in the final column also indicates the quantity. The 4-point quality color code is:
| Vorzüglich Gut Mittelmäßig Gering und schlecht |
excellent good mediocre (or fair) poor and bad |
red light green brown dark green |
In the rest of this post, I provide a transcription of this vintage chart, along with some analysis of the data. Thanks to the Hogshead blog (Buy 1684, avoid 1687: an historic German vintage chart) for drawing my attention to this extraordinary historical record.
Analysis
Here is a summary of the harvest-quality data for the 203 vintages:
| Excellent | 26 |
| Good/excellent | 1 |
| Good | 50 |
| Mediocre/good | 14 |
| Mediocre | 45 |
| Poor/mediocre | 9 |
| Poor | 63 |
Here are the same data presented as a frequency histogram of increasing quality. For random data his would follow what is known as a binomial probability distribution. It approximately does so, but for a perfect fit there are actually a few too many vintages of the "poor and bad" sort relative to the "mediocre" sort.
In the next graph I have shown the harvest-quality data as a time series, with the quality codes converted to the scores 1-4. Each data point represents a vintage, and the pink line is a running average (it shows the average value across groups of 9 consecutive years, thus smoothing out the long-term trends). [Technical note: the data are of ordinal type but not necessarily interval type, and so calculating an average may not actually be valid. I have simply assumed that it is appropriate, given the relatively close fit to the binomial probability distribution.]
Using the scale 1-4, the average vintage score is 2.2, whereas it would be 2.5 for random data, so that the average harvest across the 203 years was slightly below expectation (as also noted above for the frequency distribution). There is no general long-term trend in vintage quality across these two centuries, which cover the second half of the global cold period known as the Little Ice Age (1300-1850 CE).
There are, however, remarkably regular peaks in quality every 25-30 years (as shown by the peaks and valleys of the pink line). The cause of this is not immediately obvious, although it is presumably related to cyclical weather patterns. The first two of the quality peaks actually run together (ie. there is no intermediate dip in quality), so that the vintages were generally good from 1700-1730.
The second graph shows the relationship between vintage quality (vertically) and vintage quantity (horizontally), with each point representing a vintage from 1830-1884. There is a general positive association between quality and quantity (correlation r=0.59), so that, for example, small numbers of grapes are never associated with the best quality score. Mark Matthews, in Terroir and Other Myths of Winegrowing (University of California Press, 2016) points out that this is often true of wine making.
Interestingly, this vintage chart is not the only presentation of the Rheingau wine quality from this time period. Karl Storchmann (2005. English weather and Rhine wine quality: an ordered probit model. Journal of Wine Research 16:105-120) has transcribed a set of verbal descriptions of vintages into a set of quality scores. His data are for a single vineyard, Schloss Johannisberg (mentioned above), covering the period 1700-2000 CE. I have not yet obtained a copy of these data, to make a direct comparison with the data shown above.
Transcription
Notes: The following is a transcription of the original Gothic script into modern German. I have translated the quality color codes using the 1-4 scores. For some of the years the score is shown as being a mixture of two different codes (eg. 1/2), as explained in the Remarks (Bemerkungen) below. The first part of the chart has only abbreviated comments about the harvest quantity (Menge = amount). The middle part of the chart also provides a score for the amount (x⁄x). The final part of the chart provides the estimated harvest quantity, in hectoliters. If you are interested, Google Translate does a reasonable job of translating the German text.
Übersicht von Menge und Güte der Wein-Erträge in dem vormaligen Herzogthume Nassau in den Jahren 1682 bis 1884.
Bemerkungen.
Wenn allgemeine Angaben über die Menge bis zum Jahre 1829 in den benüßten Chroniken* nicht vorhanden waren, wurden dieselben weggelassen und folche nur für die Jahre eingefeßt, über welche entsprechende Mittheilungen sich vorsanden. Stimmten die diesbezüglichen Auszeichnungen nucht überein, so sind die sich widersprechenden Angaben einander gegenübergestellt.
Die Menge für die Jahre 1830 bis 1884 ist nach den officiellen Erhebungen für das Gebiet des vormaligen Herzogthumes Nassau in hektolitern angegeben und deren Berschiedenheit graphisch dargestellt. Bis 1868 wurden die Angaben benüßt, welche Bolizeirath Höhn in Weisbaden bereits in einer für die Wiener Weltausstellung 1873 zusammengestellten Tabelle ausgesührt hatte.
Die Güte ist entsprehend der Qualität der Rheingauer Weine im Allgemeinen durch die nachstehend ernähnten Farben ausgedrükt. Da die Darstellung den Charakter der Weine im Allgemeinen ausbrüken soll, so ist natürlich nicht ausgeschlossen, baß in speciellen Jällen d. h. engeren Bezirken in den betressenden Jahren auch bessere oder geringere Qualitäten erzielt wurden, als es den gewählten Farben entspricht.
Haben bis zum Jahre 1829 für denselben Jahrgang zwei Farben Berwendung gesunden, so stimmten die Angaben der Chroniken nicht überein, sondern wichen in der Weise von einander ab, wie die betressenden Farben veranschaulichen.
Die Güte für die Jahre 1830 bis 1884 wird wie oben durch Farben veranschaulicht und ist die Darstellung aus Grund der diesbezüglichen Mittheilungen eines der hervorragensten Rheingauer Weinkenner, dessen Ersahrungen bis zu dem zweiten Decenium dieses Jahrhunderts hinausreichen, ersolgt. Sind in besagtem Zeitraum für einen Jahrgang zwei Farben benußt, so bemegt sich die Güte innerhalb des hierdurch angedeuteten Werthes.
Die Qualität ist durch solgende Farben ausgedrüßt.
* Es wurden hierbei solgende Quellen benüßt:
1. Rheingauer Geschichts- und Wein-chronik. Von Dr. Rob. Haas. Weisbaden 1854.
2. Der Weinbau in Nassau. Von O. Sartorius. Weisbden 1871.
3. Der Weinbau der leßten hundert Jahre im Rheingau. Von T. B. Weinbau und Weinhandel 1885, S. 51.
4. Über das Schäßen der Weinernten. Von W. Rasch. Ebdenda S. 60.
| Jahr | Score | Menge |
| 1682 | 1 | wenig |
| 1683 | 2 | wenig |
| 1684 | 4 | voller herbst |
| 1685 | 1 | viel |
| 1686 | 3 | |
| 1687 | 1 | viel |
| 1688 | 1 | viel |
| 1689 | 3 | |
| 1690 | 2 | |
| 1691 | 2 | sehr wenig |
| 1692 | 1 | sehr wenig |
| 1693 | 1 | wenig |
| 1694 | 3 | |
| 1695 | 1 | wenig |
| 1696 | 1 | |
| 1697 | 2 | |
| 1698 | 1 | wenig |
| 1699 | 3 | viel |
| 1700 | 4 | |
| 1701 | 3 | |
| 1702 | 2 | |
| 1703 | 2 | |
| 1704 | 4 | |
| 1705 | 1 | wenig |
| 1706 | 4 | voller herbst |
| 1707 | 3 | |
| 1708 | 2 | |
| 1709 | 1 | starker winterfrost |
| 1710 | 3 | |
| 1711 | 3 | |
| 1712 | 4 | sehr viel |
| 1713 | 1 | |
| 1714 | 2 | |
| 1715 | 3 | |
| 1716 | 1 | |
| 1717 | 2 | |
| 1718 | 4 | |
| 1719 | 4 | |
| 1720 | 2 | |
| 1721 | 1 | |
| 1722 | 1/2 | |
| 1723 | 4 | viel |
| 1724 | 3 | |
| 1725 | 1 | sehr wenig |
| 1726 | 4 | voller herbst |
| 1727 | 3 | sehr viel |
| 1728 | 3 | |
| 1729 | 3 | viel |
| 1730 | 1 | |
| 1731 | 2 | |
| 1732 | 1 | |
| 1733 | 2 | |
| 1734 | 2 | |
| 1735 | 1 | |
| 1736 | 3 | |
| 1737 | 3 | |
| 1738 | 4 | |
| 1739 | 2 | viel |
| 1740 | 1 | frühsr. viels. nicht gel |
| 1741 | 2/3 | wenig |
| 1742 | 1 | wenig |
| 1743 | 3 | |
| 1744 | 3 | |
| 1745 | 2/3 | wenig |
| 1746 | 4 | sehr wenig |
| 1747 | 4 | |
| 1748 | 4 | |
| 1749 | 4 | wenig |
| 1750 | 4 | viel |
| 1751 | 1 | wenig |
| 1752 | 1 | viel |
| 1753 | 3 | gehr viel |
| 1754 | 2/3 | |
| 1755 | 3 | wenig |
| 1756 | 1 | mittelertrag |
| 1757 | 2 | halber herbst |
| 1758 | 1 | viel |
| 1759 | 3 | viel |
| 1760 | 3 | viel |
| 1761 | 3 | viel |
| 1762 | 3/4 | gehr viel |
| 1763 | 1 | vielfach nicht gelesen |
| 1764 | 2 | wenig |
| 1765 | 1 | sehr wenig |
| 1766 | 3 | viel |
| 1767 | 1 | sehr wenig |
| 1768 | 2 | wenig |
| 1769 | 1 | viel |
| 1770 | 2 | wenig |
| 1771 | 1/2 | viel |
| 1772 | 2 | viel |
| 1773 | 2 | |
| 1774 | 3 | viel |
| 1775 | 3 | viel |
| 1776 | 1 | wenig |
| 1777 | 1 | mittelertrag |
| 1778 | 2/3 | wenig |
| 1779 | 3 | viel |
| 1780 | 3 | viel |
| 1781 | 4 | sehr viel |
| 1782 | 1 | biemlich viel, fruhfr. |
| 1783 | 4 | hauptjahr |
| 1784 | 3 | sehr wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1785 | 1 | biemlich viel (1⁄2) |
| 1786 | 1 | wenig (1⁄4) |
| 1787 | 1 | viel (1⁄2) |
| 1788 | 3 | viel (0) |
| 1789 | 2 | wenig, spätfrost (1⁄8) |
| 1790 | 2 | wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1791 | 1/3 | frühfrost, 1⁄2 herbst |
| 1792 | 1/3 | feblj. & spätfr. (1⁄8) |
| 1793 | 1 | sehr wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1794 | 3 | mittelertrag (4⁄8) |
| 1795 | 1/2 | wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1796 | 1/3 | wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1797 | 1 | wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1798 | 3 | viel (1⁄2) |
| 1799 | 1 | sr. hagelbeichädg. (1⁄8) |
| 1800 | 3 | sehr wenig (1⁄3) |
| 1801 | 3 | wenig bis viel (1⁄2) |
| 1802 | 3 | sehr wenig bis ziemt. viel (1⁄8) |
| 1803 | 2 | (2⁄8) |
| 1804 | 3 | sehr viel (1⁄1) |
| 1805 | 1 | sehr wenig (0), frühfr. |
| 1806 | 4 | biemlich viel (1⁄3) |
| 1807 | 3 | biemlich viel (1⁄3) |
| 1808 | 2 | viel (1⁄1) |
| 1809 | 1 | wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1810 | 2 | wenig (1⁄2) |
| 1811 | 4 | sehr viel (1⁄3) |
| 1812 | 2 | nicht viel (2⁄3) |
| 1813 | 1 | sehr wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1814 | 2 | sehr wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1815 | 3 | wenig (1⁄3) |
| 1816 | 1 | vielfach nicht gel. (0) |
| 1817 | 1 | wenig (1⁄8) |
| 1818 | 3 | mittelertrag (1⁄1) |
| 1819 | 3 | viel bis sehr viel (1⁄1) |
| 1820 | 1 | rein (1⁄2), herbst (1/3) |
| 1821 | 1 | unbedeutend (1⁄3) |
| 1822 | 4 | voller herbst (1⁄3) |
| 1823 | 1 | halber herbst (1⁄3) |
| 1824 | 1 | wenig (1⁄4) |
| 1825 | 3 | viel (1⁄2) |
| 1826 | 3 | voller herbst (1⁄1) |
| 1827 | 3 | sehr wenig (1⁄4) |
| 1828 | 2 | voller herbst (1⁄1) |
| 1829 | 1 | sehr wenig (1⁄6), herbst (1⁄3) |
| 1830 | 1 | 2,700 |
| 1831 | 3 | 32,412 |
| 1832 | 1/3 | 33,840 |
| 1833 | 2/3 | 95,472 |
| 1834 | 4 | 106,368 |
| 1835 | 3 | 87,120 |
| 1836 | 2/3 | 42,768 |
| 1837 | 1 | 31,236 |
| 1838 | 2 | 21,768 |
| 1839 | 1/3 | 43,644 |
| 1840 | 1/2 | 39,660 |
| 1841 | 2/3 | 28,572 |
| 1842 | 2/3 | 67,728 |
| 1843 | 1 | 34,486 |
| 1844 | 1/2 | 34,392 |
| 1845 | 1 | 34,548 |
| 1846 | 4 | 117,000 |
| 1847 | 1/2 | 102,804 |
| 1848 | 3 | 63,264 |
| 1849 | 1 | 44,916 |
| 1850 | 1/2 | 51,216 |
| 1851 | 1 | 51,300 |
| 1852 | 2 | 53,232 |
| 1853 | 2 | 53,256 |
| 1854 | 1/2 | 9,516 |
| 1855 | 3 | 43,968 |
| 1856 | 1 | 27,888 |
| 1857 | 4 | 109,968 |
| 1858 | 3 | 97,104 |
| 1859 | 3 | 71,040 |
| 1860 | 1 | 64,800 |
| 1861 | 3 | 24,624 |
| 1862 | 4 | 96,480 |
| 1863 | 1 | 54,960 |
| 1864 | 1 | 33,612 |
| 1865 | 4 | 89,220 |
| 1866 | 1 | 99,000 |
| 1867 | 1/2 | 77,676 |
| 1868 | 4 | 129,485 |
| 1869 | 2 | 57,552 |
| 1870 | 2 | 62,616 |
| 1871 | 1 | 25,874 |
| 1872 | 1 | 11,612 |
| 1873 | 2 | 27,839 |
| 1874 | 2/3 | 84,284 |
| 1875 | 2/3 | 131,088 |
| 1876 | 2/3 | 75,070 |
| 1877 | 1 | 61,827 |
| 1878 | 2 | 37,416 |
| 1879 | 1 | 13,928 |
| 1880 | 2/3 | 14,452 |
| 1881 | 2/3 | 67,691 |
| 1882 | 1 | 38,392 |
| 1883 | 2/3 | 74,220 |
| 1884 | 3 | 76,820 |
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