Current opinions and trends in the US wine market

The wine industry is having a hard time at the moment, what with: Geopolitics, trade wars and Gen Z. After all, according to Gallup Polls (Alcohol consumption increasingly viewed as unhealthy in U.S.): 59 % of 18–34 year-olds admit to drinking alcohol (decreasing continually this century), but 69 % of 35–54 yo (keeping steady), and 58 % of 55> yo. It might thus be time in this blog to stand back a bit, and look at the actual wine drinkers themselves.

Wine lovers are not part of an elite. Not every car driver needs to own a Rolls Royce or a Lamborghini, and not every resident needs to inhabit a roof-top apartment or a cliff-top mansion. Similarly, not every wine-drinker needs to consume an exclusive vintage. These are all status symbols for the rich.

Too much of the wine literature focuses on “the best” (intended for “true wine lovers”), not simply the above-average (The price of exclusivity: how wine lost its everyday appeal). Wine is often made into the star, a thing that people need to revere (“wine speaks to us”), rather than being created simply for pleasure. So, wine is not an elitist pursuit (not status), nor is it an unhealthy one – in both cases provided it is conducted in moderation.

Good wines are not inaccessible to my peers, provided we know where to look for them. The returns will re-pay even a small amount of effort. All we need is that the bottle contents should match the price, and choosing the latter thus chooses the former — the younger people need to be told this, and especially this. Even cheap wine can be interesting, depending on its origin; however, quality does cost money, and must be paid for.

So, now seems like a good time to look at some market trends in the United States wine industry. In the past, consumers have traditionally gone through their 20s into their 30s, and then they have naturally transitioned to wine — this doesn’t seem to be happening now. Mind you, it is repeatedly said that the modern trend is to drink less but drink better.

That said, we could start with the change in average bottle price 2013–2024, as shown above (from: Sovos ShipCompliant and WineBusiness Analytics 2025):

In 2024, the average price per bottled shipped increased by 6% to a record $51.20. The continued slowdown in the rate of price increases, which declined from 7% in 2023, 9% in 2022 and 12% in 2021, reflects a broader easing of inflation. However, this increase remains well above the pre-pandemic average annual change — we are told that this is preferentially because the volume of sales of cheaper wines is now declining, rather than the more expensive wines are increasing (2024 Beverage Alcohol Year in Review).

That said, we can also look at the sales growth of premium wineries 2000–2024, as shown above (from: Silicon Valley Bank State of the US Wine Industry Report 2025). This shows a distinct downwards trend, indicating that even the expensive wines are selling much worse, through time. There have been, however, two distinct dips and one peak.

What we have is an obvious set of evolving social norms (What if we didn't turn into our parents?), and a growing focus on health and wellness, rather than on the fanciness of the wine itself. We can see this by looking at various parts of this report: Colangelo Partners U.S. Wine Market Trends and Challenges. I will do this now.

We can start by looking at what people think about wine’s effect on their health and well-being, for the different age groups, as shown above. Wine is seen to have a notable effect for all groups, but it is the oldies (my group!) who detect the biggest effect, especially on their well-being.

Looking in more detail, we can see what these effects are thought to be, as shown above, for the three groups. Apparently wine is not really part of a healthy diet, although it has been historically important, and it does go with food (wine is always best consumed with food, otherwise you risk becoming an alcoholic). The older people are apparently much more amenable to wine consumption.

In terms of actions, the younger people do express their intent to participate in Dry January, and have done so in the past, as shown above. The older groups are much less keen (and I would definitely fit into my oldest age group). By comparison, apparently 55% of a survey of French consumers declared a willingness to abstain from alcohol in January, but ultimately only 18% declared that they had succeeded (The growth of NOLO in France). There are, of course, good reasons for not drying out your January (Yes, you can drink without guilt).

More seriously, some people have taken the recent WHO guidelines earnestly, as shown above, especially among the younger people. We older people, of course, do not (Harvard researchers and leading statistician stand up to the WHO), and things are not so simple (The complex case of moderate drinking). However, as Louis Pasteur famously noted: “Wine is the most healthful and most hygienic of beverages.”

Finally, it is worth noting other risky behavior apparently carried out, for the various age groups, as shown in the table above. It seems to me, given this, that wine is the least of their likely health problems. Eating junk food cannot be good for you; and coming from Australia, as I do, we know to put on sunscreen, or at least wear a hat (the sun is a bigger cancer risk than either red or white wine: Red vs. white wine: New study finds little difference in overall cancer risk).

Anyway, that is what some of the opinions in the wine market in the USA look like just now. Interest in wine is declining (Wine sales slipping in US as more Americans leave alcohol behind); and at the entry level, quality wines are disappearing (The cost of premiumisation). Younger people have also been starting to look more closely at ready-to-drink (RTD) concoctions based on wine (The wine-based RTDs we are too embarrassed to talk about).

We have also apparently been failing to communicate that we enjoy wine (Rediscovering the fun in wine), except perhaps through the non-educators on TikTok or Instagram (The role of wine influencers). Instead of Dry January, we have Come Over October and Share & Pair Sundays. Or, as the French campaign of 1933 noted: “Drink wine, live joyfully”. Moreover: Wine industry leaders look on the bright side; and indeed the 2024 California Grape Crush Report shows the lightest crop in 20 years, which will help address the current over-supply of U.S. wine.

Given all of this, we have apparently been making too much wine for quite some time, but we have only recently woken up to this idea (The 2025 wine industry wake-up call). We need to either reduce vineyard area or create wine demand (eg. Young adults find restaurant wine lists uninspiring). Not only do younger people tend to drink less than older ones, they lean toward lighter wines, they buy less for status and more for taste, and they are more open to new products (Year of the Snake bites for China wine).

We could perhaps take a hint from the Champagne houses, which have focused on making and offering products that their target consumers will enjoy and want to buy again, rather than trying to educate consumers about wine as a complicated accompaniment to food (Robert Joseph). That is, we need to see the importance of embracing curiosity and telling the story of wine (Alecia Moore: Pink). We also need to refocus from the concept of physical health to one of emotional wellness — from wine we get flavor, enjoyment, culture (With its health halo dimmed, wine needs new ways to win over drinkers). Hint: make consumers smile and they are more likely to engage with your brand (Tim Akin). All of these points were emphasized and amplified at the recent Unified Wine and Grape Symposium (Stressed and worried, young people need wine).

So, as a finish, this might also be “an opportune time to talk to buyers and experts about what they think wine, and wine enjoyment, might look like in the next 50 years” (The future of wine: what might the next 50 years have in store?). Presumably, given the interest shown above in diets, one of the most obvious innovations will be ingredient and nutrition labels for wine, as in the European Union (Notes of...fish bladder?!) and increasingly in the USA (Wineries promote transparency by adding ingredients lists). More seriously, some countries either already have cancer warnings or are considering them (Should Australia mandate cancer warnings for alcoholic drinks?).

Recent study shows that alcohol does have an important benefit in older age

This post is about alcohol, dementia and old age. There is a new research report that concludes that the occurrence of dementia is the lowest among people with moderate alcohol consumption, and the risk is higher among those who never drink or who drink excessively.

But, to set the scene, my wife spent a Monday recently in a hospital, being examined some of the time, but mostly just sitting there waiting (I kept her company). I then did exactly the same thing myself on the Tuesday (and she accompanied me). In my wife’s case they said: “It will be okay”, and so far they have been right. However, in my case they gave me some pills to take 3 times per day, every day for the rest of my life. These are the outcomes of getting older — back in the old days we didn’t make it, to get any older, but these days we slowly undergo physical and mental degeneration for quite a long while.

In this regard, old age is acknowledged to be the most important predictor of the syndrome known as dementia (a general decline in cognitive abilities affecting one's ability to perform everyday activities). Therefore the number of people living with this condition is expected to grow, along with the number of old adults. It should be obvious, then, that detecting this as far ahead as possible will help us (family, friends, colleagues, community, society) cope with the situation as best we can.

To this end, a recent report appeared:

Identifying early predictors of cognitive impairment and dementia in a large

nationally representative U.S. sample. Rand Research Report 2024 RR-A3207-1

It’s relevance to us in this blog should be obvious: alcohol is often implicated in cases of dementia. Well, this report makes it clear that alcohol does indeed play a potential role, but not in the way you may have suspected — there is good news aplenty.

Let’s start with what this study is, since we know that it is not a scientific experiment. It is simply a survey in which people answer questions and are measured in various ways. So, it is the quality of the surveying that matters, in terms of its size and how well it represents the intended population. According to the authors:

The data for this study come from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a United States nationally representative, biennial longitudinal survey of adults over age 50. The first wave was conducted in 1992 with a target population of the cohorts born in 1931 through 1941. Older cohorts and a younger cohort (born in 1942 through 1947) were added in 1998 [cohort = wave], so that the 1998 study represented the population born in 1947 or earlier. Since 1998, refresher cohorts of 51- to 56-year-olds have been added to the HRS every six years to maintain a population representation of adults ages 51 and older. The sample includes about 20,000 individuals per wave; more than 45,000 individuals have participated in the HRS since its inception.

This sounds pretty darned good to me — better than most such surveys. Their objective is clear:

In this report, we aim to identify predictors of dementia and cognitive impairment for individuals in the United States up to 20 years in advance using the cognition and dementia measures from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS).

So, the HRS already has within it “a validated probabilistic measure of dementia and cognitive impairment that was developed in prior research”, so that each person has been evaluated for cognitive ability. The HRS then:

allows us to evaluate the predictive power of many potential dementia risk factors, such as demographics, socioeconomic status (SES), labor-market measures, lifestyle and health behaviors (such as exercising and smoking), subjectively reported and objectively measured health, genes, parental health, cognitive abilities, and psychosocial factors (such as personality traits, social activities, and loneliness). We estimate how these factors predict cognitive impairment and dementia of individuals two, four, and twenty years after age 60.

So, that idea should be clear, from this here figure. The authors used their fancy univariate and multivariate analyses to try to work out how each of 181 potential risk factors, measured now, relates to developing dementia at a later age: “dementia prevalence among persons approximately age 80 according to their observed characteristics when they were about age 60”.

The report itself is quite readable, and you should consult it if you are interested in learning about all of the relevant factors they detected. For example:

In terms of explained variation, an individual’s baseline cognitive abilities, health, and functional limitations were the strongest predictors of dementia, whereas parental health, family size, marital history, and demographics were the weakest ones.

However, here we are interested in alcohol, which does make a suitable appearance:

Alcohol consumption is also predictive of dementia incidence; the incidence and prevalence of dementia are the lowest among those with moderate alcohol consumption, and the risk is elevated among those who never drink or who drink excessively. We found the same patterns in both sex groups and in all three dementia models that we considered.

This remarkable observation is shown in the next graph. This graph shows the males in the left pair of graphs and the females in the right pair. The top pair shows the effect of moderate exercise, for comparison, and the bottom pair shows the effect of alcohol intake. Each individual graph shows five possible situations (horizontally), and the rate of dementia associated with it (vertically).

So, to take exercise for men, as an example you should be familiar with: as the incidence of exercise decreases from left to right, the incidence of dementia increases. Or put around the other way, as exercise increases dementia decreases. You do not have all be told that exercise is good for you, but here it is one clear example.

Now look at alcohol. For both men and women, the highest incidence of dementia is among people who do not drink alcohol at all. For both men and women, the lowest incidence of dementia is among people who do have only one drink (or a couple of drinks) at a time. However, further increasing alcohol intake beyond this does increase the incidence of dementia — remember, five drinks at one time is a whole bottle of wine!

So, what people have been saying for years, that a little bit of alcohol is good for you, actually turns out to be true in this study.

The authors are moderate but clear:

Alcohol consumption is predictive of dementia incidence; the incidence and prevalence of dementia are the lowest among those with moderate alcohol consumption, and the risk is elevated among those who never drink or who drink excessively. We found the same patterns in both sex groups and in all three dementia models that we considered ... The lifestyle and health behavior predictors are noteworthy because they are modifiable risk factors and can be controlled by the individual.

Based on their whole analysis, they note:

We found strong associations between the outcomes and several modifiable risk factors. Therefore, our results suggest that there might be scope for slowing cognitive decline and dementia among at-risk people through behavioral changes and interventions. Such lifestyle modifications could be achieved by individuals taking the initiative to make such necessary changes, and public policy could also play an important role.

Our results suggest that it might be beneficial for maintaining cognitive health to exercise at least sometimes, even if it is only light physical activity, such as walking. Consuming alcohol in moderation, working longer, and engaging in hobbies and novel information activities after retirement are also associated with a lower risk of developing dementia. Similarly, maintaining good physical health is associated with reduced dementia incidence, which suggests that adopting a healthy lifestyle might be beneficial not only for general health but also for brain health ...

All these findings point toward the importance for policymakers and other stakeholders to promote healthy behaviors in the population and to strengthen individuals’ access to quality health care.

To this latter end, getting the bureaucrats’ alcohol-consumption ideas right is important. It seems that the World Health Organisation, and a number of other national and international bodies, have not yet got it right, as they have recently come out strongly against alcohol. The basic issue is that we cannot do proper scientific experiments (where we manipulate people’s behavior) to study the relevant social situations critically. All we can do is look at large databases, of which the one discussed here seems to be an important one.

The WHO is making a mistake about state-owned alcohol retailers

Last week, the World Health Organization (WHO) released a new report:

Nordic alcohol monopolies protect public health

This continues the current WHO anti-alcohol campaign, apparently heading back towards the days of Prohibition, or something like it. Their online announcement will give you an idea of their tone:

• WHO highlights Nordic alcohol monopolies as a comprehensive model for reducing alcohol consumption and harm

WHO has released a new report highlighting the Nordic alcohol monopolies as an effective model for reducing alcohol consumption and harm. Unlike commercial alcohol sales systems, these state-owned monopolies operate with a public health mandate, restricting availability and limiting the influence of private profit interests. Countries like Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and the Faroe Islands have maintained relatively low alcohol consumption levels, despite being part of a region historically known for heavy drinking and related harms.

So, their basic point is that retail alcohol monopolies can be an effective way to reduce alcohol consumption and harm. By removing the private profit motive of sales, monopolies often have:

• fewer outlets
• shorter hours of sale
• no advertising and promotion.

I should comment on this because I seem to be the only person regularly blogging about the wine industry, and who actually has personal experience of a state-owned Nordic / Scandinavian alcohol retailer. Also, I should compare this with the situation in the USA and Canada.

The WHO claim is that they have compiled some data that support their current agenda against alcohol. One example is shown in the graph below, looking at alcohol per capita consumption (APC) in the various countries. The Nordic countries have smaller APC than most of the other European countries.

However, the WHO have not looked at how the “government monopolies” actually behave, in practice. They may once have behaved the way WHO imagines, but that was decades ago. My own experience is of Systembolaget in Sweden, for the past quarter of a century (I also have experience of Australia), where the Swedes are dedicated to providing excellent customer service.

My own personal experience of Systembolaget includes:

• it is not closely supervised by the government, but acts as an independent retailer that just happens to be owned by the government (eg. it has recently expanded its opening hours)
• if you can import it then they will sell it, although you may have to order it (and wait a few days for delivery) rather than them always stocking it on their shop shelves
• if you can pay for it then they will sell it to you, unless you are clearly intoxicated at the time or are under-age
• they have plenty of easily accessible shops
• only when the importer runs out does supply of a product end.

Systembolaget currently lists as being available nationally: 15,251 wines, 4,067 beers, 5,272 spirits, 419 cider etc, and 170 alcohol-free drinks. This is hardly a limit on supply, for a country of 10.5 million people.

I have written quite a few blog posts on this situation, including the following:

An explanation of the situation:

Why are there wine monopolies in Scandinavia?

Product availability:

Wine monopolies, and the availability of wine
The availability of wines in government-owned retail monopolies
The availability of older wine vintages in Sweden?

The prices of alcohol:

Why is wine often cheaper in Sweden than elsewhere?
Is Scandinavia currently the most attractive wine export market?

Availability of alcohol from elsewhere within the European Union (EU):

Sweden is not actually restricted to a government alcohol retail monopoly

Similarity to alcohol availability elsewhere in the world:

Why does the world have Three-Tier systems for alcohol supply?

Not everything is necessarily perfect, of course:

My annoyances with my alcohol monopoly

While on the point of alcohol sales in the rest of the EU, looking at the above graph, I would ask the obvious question: what about Croatia, Malta, Cyprus, and especially Italy and Greece? It is not like these countries don’t produce lots of alcohol, including wine, beer and spirits, and sell them both nationally and internationally. The locals apparently consume less alcohol per person than the Nordic countries, according to the graph, without government ownership of retail. Also, Denmark should be noted in this list as a Scandinavian country, but their government does not own the alcohol retail.

More to the point, there was a research report published last year (Classifying national drinking patterns in Europe between 2000 and 2019), which looked at drinking patterns within the different countries of Europe four times this century, and the changes in drinking behavior during that time make a mockery of the one-time-only analysis of the WHO.

Finally, this whole issue undervalues the fact that, as alternative examples, both the USA and Canada also have states and provinces with partial or complete government ownership of alcohol retail. This is mentioned in the report as an alternative to Prohibition but not elaborated upon; and it hardly differs from the Nordic countries.

For Canada you can read: Alcoholic drinks in Canada. For the USA, you can read Alcoholic beverage control state, which lists the relevant states:

Alcoholic beverage control states, generally called control states, less often ABC states, are 17 states in the United States that have state monopolies over the wholesaling or retailing of some or all categories of alcoholic beverages, such as beer, wine, and distilled spirits.

Mind you, the United States continues to be the top global market for wine consumption, and for the USA there is pressure on the current retail situation:

Retailer DtC wine shipping: the time has come
Poll: NYers want wine in grocery stores

So, WHO’s anti-alcohol campaign seems to have led to some mis-understanding about the real situation among the countries of both Europe and North America. Unfortunately, they may not need to continue their campaign for long, because APC has been decreasing in many markets worldwide, no matter what the retail structure (What’s driving wine’s structural decline?). Nevertheless, Current medical evidence says that wine is not harmful in small doses.

Wine price variation within the European Union

The International Organisation of Vine & Wine usually publishes their State of the World Vine and Wine Sector report in April each year. The 2023 report was pretty depressing in many ways, showing a decline in global wine consumption starting in 2018 and increasing after 2021. The 2024 report is not expected to show anything much different.

Similarly, the Silicon Valley Bank just released its US Wine Industry Report 2025, which noted that “the wine industry is undergoing a significant reset, marking the first demand-based correction in three decades ... While painful to experience now, these shifts may result in a healthier industry with more accessible bottle prices that will attract new consumers tomorrow.” I hope so.

In addition to these reports, there are the upcoming tariff portents of the new US president. These may have global effects in the not too distant future, although perhaps “tariffs on imported wine and spirits are more likely to harm American businesses than businesses abroad” (How Trump’s tariff threats will affect the wine and spirits industry and consumers).

So, as a change from all of this, now might be a good time to have a look at the past and present prices of wine among the states of the European Union (EU), and a few of its allied countries, rather than the USA. The situation is not quite as simple as we might expect or like. ¹

Let's start with a simple look at recent EU wine consumption, as shown above (Annual wine consumption in the European Union). As you can see, it varies quite a bit, but the general trend has been slightly downwards — the 2024 value was only 90% of the 2016 value. The average across the nine years was 100 million hectoliters (2,200 million gallons.

There was a distinct dip during the main years of the Covid-19 pandemic (2020–2021), suggesting that a lot of the consumption occurs in public places such as bars and restaurants, which were being avoided at that time. The unique rise in 2022 looks like a reaction to being safely allowed back into public drinking again. (Compare the USA: Alcohol consumption rises sharply during pandemic shutdown.)

Moving on to the different countries, we can look at the alcohol prices for 2020, as shown in the second graph (How alcohol prices vary across the EU) — this is simply a standardized measure with the EU average set at 100. Once again, these values vary quite a lot, with the Hungary price being only 38% of that of Finland.

Of the highest countries, the values for Finland and Sweden include a lot of spirits, which may also be true for Ireland. The wine-producing and consuming countries (eg. Portugal, Italy, France, Germany, Spain) are mostly in the centre of the price list.

The three countries to the right of the main graph are members of the European Free Trade Association, which is why there are data for them. The high price data for Norway and Iceland match those for two of the other Nordic countries (Finland and Sweden), but not the fifth one, Denmark (which matches Switzerland, instead!).

Moving on specifically to wine, we have Eurostat data for changes in price since 2015, as shown in the table above (Food price monitoring tool). The data refer to Wine from Grapes, showing a Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, with 2015 set to 100. The data allow us to calculate the change in price for two periods of 5 years each (2015–2019 and 2020–2024 inclusive).

The EU average is at the top, with the countries then in alphabetical order. Note that there are the same 27 EU countries, plus Norway and Switzerland (but not Iceland), and the UK for the first period (when it was in the EU, before Brexit).

Note that there was a much greater (average) price increase in the past 5 years compared to the first 5. I think we all know that prices increase through time at an increasing rate. However, it is worth noting the two decreases in price during the first 5 years (Ireland and Cyprus) – lucky them!

Note also that the top 6 countries in the second list are more than double the average — this is pretty serious. Indeed, the top 10 countries are in eastern Europe (plus Czechia, which is way down). In particular, the poor situation for Croatia has attracted discussion (Croatia ranks first in Europe for wine price increases), although quality is another matter (How this power couple is trying to make Croatian wine world class), as is historical significance (How a 150-year-old grapevine is helping California producers adapt to climate change).

The countries from northern Europe discussed above (Sweden, Norway, Finland) are actually in the middle of this list — as I noted, these are wine prices only, not spirits prices. Also, Ireland, Switzerland and Italy are doing very well (see this video for Switzerland: Countries are struggling to contain inflation, but not Switzerland). Austria has not done much worse in the second 5 years compared to the first, which is unusual within the list (see: Austria bucks (some) trends; however: Austria’s wine exports to fall back in 2024).

It seems unlikely that things are going to get much better. It is, of course, the younger people who are the future, on all continents, but it has been observed that wine is very traditional. So, it has been noted (Leveraging wine sales in 2025):

Amid falling overall consumption in several countries, there is also ongoing debate about how to attract more Millennial and adult-Gen-Z drinkers to wine. Sustainability cues could be important; IWSR research showed a greater proportion of regular wine drinkers in Gen Z and Millennial generations in the US associated organic wine with high quality.

So, there is cause for optimism, if we can just see the potential areas of growth. However, The Wine Economist (Mike Veseth) once noted Kenneth Boulding’s historical point that when the future eventually rolls around it never matches the predictions, it is always unexpected (The future of wine?). So, we shall see what we see.

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¹ The European Union currently consist of 27 countries. The United Kingdom was in the European Economic Community from 1973, which became the European Union, but then withdrew from the EU via Brexit in 2020 (along with Greenland, an autonomous province of Denmark, way back in 1985). Norway, Switzerland and Iceland have submitted membership applications in the past, but subsequently frozen or withdrawn them; they are, however, members of the European Free Trade Association. Turkey is a candidate EU country (and a member of the OECD along with North America and Australia).