tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.comments2024-03-28T07:27:16.088+01:00The Wine GourdDavid Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.comBlogger859125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-23932534334195480782024-03-28T07:27:16.088+01:002024-03-28T07:27:16.088+01:00Yes, the transition to new generations has not (ye...Yes, the transition to new generations has not (yet?) occurred for the wine industry, in many places in the world. It is not clear what can or should be done by the industry itself.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-75736417314108311632024-03-25T16:38:20.465+01:002024-03-25T16:38:20.465+01:00The decline of the wine market is expected to inte...The decline of the wine market is expected to intensify as many baby boomers are prescribed medications that prohibit alcohol consumption. The loss of this primary group of wine consumers and the diminishing wine culture will accelerate in the coming years. The industry has yet to feel the full impact of not having a plan to transition to other demographic groups. The older generation is not being replaced by younger individuals; in 2024, the situation is actually worsening.<br /><br />"The bigger problem, though, is the wine-drinking consumer. Some 58% of consumers over the age of 65—essentially, the baby boomer generation" - SVB report.<br />The current average life expectancy in the US is 76.4 years.<br />By 2030, all baby boomers will be aged 65 or older.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-17518876589182358652024-02-19T13:56:25.966+01:002024-02-19T13:56:25.966+01:00Here is an article with a poured wine glass photo ...Here is an article with a poured wine glass photo that underscores the question: "How -- by visual inspection alone -- can you measure a 5-ounce glass pour of wine?"<br /><br />Excerpt from the New York Post "Food & Drink"<br />(June 23, 2022):<br /><br />"You're not crazy, wine pours at restaurants are shrinking"<br /><br />URL: https://nypost.com/2022/06/23/youre-not-crazy-wine-pours-are-shrinking/<br /><br />By Beth Landman<br /><br />Accompanying photo exhibit:<br /><br />URL: https://nypost.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2022/06/perfect-pour.jpg?resize=744,496&quality=75&strip=all<br /><br />Exhibit caption: All over the city, from taverns to fine restaurants, diners are doing double takes as they receive reduced pours of wine at increased prices.<br />Exhibit credit: Brian Zak/NY PostBob Henryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10273753215266627700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-64655288385975481382024-02-19T13:50:04.954+01:002024-02-19T13:50:04.954+01:00Complementing The Journal article:
Excerpt from t...Complementing The Journal article:<br /><br />Excerpt from the San Francisco Chronicle "Food & Wine" Section<br />(August 7, 2011, Page G6):<br /><br />"Alcohol Levels Can Make Big Difference" <br /><br />URL: http://www.sfgate.com/food/article/Small-changes-in-wine-alcohols-can-make-a-big-2336133.php<br /> <br />By Michael Apstein<br />[Gastroenterologist at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston and an assistant professor of medicine at Harvard Medical School]<br /><br />"Sidebar exhibit: BAC Comparison<br /><br /> "Does a 14 percent wine really get you more drunk than one at 12 percent? It can. The table below shows the blood alcohol concentration for an average 130-pound woman who consumes two 5-ounce glasses of wine over 1½ hours.<br /><br /> "While the alcohol content of the wine rises 25 percent (from 12 percent to 15 percent), BAC goes up by 35 percent -- above California's legal driving limit of 0.08 percent. As more alcohol hits the stomach, more of it gets through into the blood.<br /><br />"These calculations are rough estimates because the formula does not account for differences in how the liver metabolizes alcohol, so don't rely on these values or other calculators for determining whether it is safe to drive.<br /><br />~~ Michael Apstein<br /><br />Accompanying table exhibit:<br /><br />"Alcohol Content . . . Blood Alcohol Concentration<br /><br />12% . . . 0.065%<br />13% . . . 0.073%<br />14% . . . 0.081%<br />15% . . . 0.088%<br /><br />Source: Formula at www.globalrph.com/bac.cgi"Bob Henryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10273753215266627700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-59514950890734028122024-02-19T13:43:59.643+01:002024-02-19T13:43:59.643+01:00David cited this article:
From The Wall Street Jo...David cited this article:<br /><br />From The Wall Street Journal "Personal Journal" Section<br />(May 1, 2007, Page D1):<br /><br />"The Accidental Binge Drinker: How Much We Really Pour"<br /><br />URL: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB117797544301787472?ns=prod/accounts-wsj<br /><br />By Tara Parker-Pope<br />"Health Journal" Column<br /><br />Excerpt:<br /><br />"A standard 'serving' for an alcoholic beverage is 5 fluid ounces of wine, 12 ounces of regular beer or 1½ ounces of distilled spirits, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."<br /><br />As I recall, that 5-ounce glass of wine was based on 12% ABV.<br /><br />You will find 12% ABV wines in California dating back to the 1960s and 1970s. Maybe even from the early 1980s. In subsequent years those ABVs went up in lock-step with the "Parker-ization of wine" adhering to "physiological ripeness" in harvesting grapes instead of a slavish devotion to brix measurements.Bob Henryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10273753215266627700noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-44544439836512784952024-02-05T14:23:42.858+01:002024-02-05T14:23:42.858+01:00I think that you are spot-om with your diagnosis. ...I think that you are spot-om with your diagnosis. While I am not sure about how much young people see through the "facades", as opposed to simply preferring a wider range of beverage choices, I see that many of those choices are closer to their own hearts. Also, the wine magazines certainly seem like an anachronism, but no more so than some of the revered wine commentators, who are as old as me. Where are the young wine gurus? Their lack tells us quite a lot about the industry.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-2092862221570340582024-02-04T23:59:17.056+01:002024-02-04T23:59:17.056+01:00The widening generational divide is unmistakable, ...The widening generational divide is unmistakable, and it’s only going to deepen if the wine industry doesn’t adapt to where consumers actually are.<br /><br />The legacy of wine—as an industry, a category, and a cultural icon—is fraught with both charm and challenges. It's a rich history yet burdened by outdated practices. To some, wine is an enigma, cloaked in the allure of nature and the cosmos; to others, it’s seen as an elaborate scheme, reminiscent of the infamous "Sell me this pen" scene from The Wolf of Wall Street. It’s high time we acknowledge that wine has been co-opted by financial institutions and sales gurus, thriving on a foundation of hype and the illusion of prosperity.<br /><br />The younger audience’s ability to see through these facades signals a critical juncture for the wine industry. It's time to reflect on fundamental questions: What essence does wine embody—is it a fruit derivative product or an alcoholic drink category? What values should the wine industry uphold? Is it feasible—or even desirable—for wine to distinguish itself from other alcoholic beverages? The push for unequivocal transparency in labeling is a testament to the need for change.<br /><br />The dichotomy between vineyards and brands you've outlined suggests a path forward, where innovation in product formats by both grape growers and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands could rejuvenate the industry. Exploring wine concentrates and alternative fermentation processes might pave the way for novel offerings.<br /><br />However, the wine culture’s current trajectory embracing insularity, wastefulness, and corruption is alarming. The survival of the glossy print wine magazines amidst this backdrop is perplexing, highlighting an industry at odds with the values of 21-42yo who remain disinterested in joining this exclusive club. For wine to regain its appeal, it must become accessible and relevant to those who are currently outside its traditional circle.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-29591398079596761832024-01-30T18:55:44.285+01:002024-01-30T18:55:44.285+01:00I agree with all of your points. The wine industry...I agree with all of your points. The wine industry is, after all, a complex place, and adapting it to the modern world will not be easy, for any country, let alone for all of them together. We will have to wait and see what happens. However, at the moment I see a rash of "cautious optimism" comments appearing, which suggests that there is not much impetus for voluntary change.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-90911586136537021342024-01-30T18:51:39.060+01:002024-01-30T18:51:39.060+01:00My point is that there is a difference between che...My point is that there is a difference between cheap wine and inexpensive wine. It is the recognition of this difference that would be the best introduction of young people to the joys of wine. They can have good stuff without it being expensive. Expensive is exclusionary, no matter how good it is, but inexpensive is embracing, when it is also good.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-4886773930845431742024-01-30T10:16:35.936+01:002024-01-30T10:16:35.936+01:00A central cause of declining wine consumption, in ...A central cause of declining wine consumption, in my opinion, is that wines aren't made the same way they once were. Due to current fashion, Parker score chasing, climate change, and post-phylloxera replanting, wines have become more concentrated, sweeter, more alcoholic and heavier than they were at the outset of the modern wine boom.<br /><br />Baby boomers, eager to learn about wine mainly from wine critics culturally new to wine themselves, consumed wine much differently than traditional wine drinkers of past generations (guided by European tradition), more substitute cocktail than a food extension at the table. The bigger the wines, the more impressive; it matters at the table, but may be an advantage for a stand-alone beverage.<br /><br />But drinking wine in larger volumes, which are less bothersome at 11-12% ABV, become troublesome at 14-16%. More headaches, more hangovers. Food moderates these ill effects, but only so much. As a result, consumers experience wine overload.<br /><br />Zinfandel, once a hugely popular wine category, has alienated many regular wine drinkers because of its aggressive nature and excessive alcohol, much the same way big Australian wines have done. Pinot Noir, once the queen of wines praised for its delicacy and finesse, is more often made like Syrah or high-alcohol Grenache. Chateauneuf-du-Pape, once a staple of high-end restaurant wine lists, is today too alcoholic and assertive to provide meaningful accompaniment at the table. Even German Riesling has lost its shimmering beauty, becoming clunkier in the 21st century, I suspect due to climate warming. <br /><br />All of the paradigms for "fine wine" have been distorted so much that everything we once believed about wines, longevity, lore, etc., have nearly vanished. So, in addition to the way people have overdosed on heavy wines, fine wines have also lost much of their cachet. Wines made in the 1990s and beyond don't develop in the cellar the way they did in previous generations when they became legends. There is more disappointment than ever when opening up saved bottles—they almost never live up to expectations. <br /><br />There is also another interesting cultural reality that has to be factored in. Young people always look for things they can call their own—music, art and even food and wine. If your daddy doesn't understand it, you can feel superior to him and his peers. That would explain why baby boomers were drawn to wine when their Mad Men era parents were drinking cocktails. Gen Xers turned back to mixology their baby boom parents didn't understand, resurrecting classic cocktail recipes used by their great-granddaddies. <br /><br />Also, don't underestimate class resentment when a generation can't afford to drink the same venerated beverages their parents (and hedge fund managers) do. Wine has always been an aspirational (rather than indigenous) beverage to much of the U.S. market, and cachet is lost if one rejects it because of its high cost. That helps explain why so many young Somms don't have Cabernet Sauvignons on their wine lists, despite the varietal's continuing dominance in overall sales. (Another factor is what Robert Parker admitted in his wine guides—Cabernet and Chardonnay are limiting food wines, and savvy wine and food people know it.)<br /><br />The factors in your article explaining why wine consumption is down are all valid. Add most domestic and increasingly imported wines are just too heavy to be enjoyed regularly, and you have the answers to why wine sales have been slipping.<br /><br /> --Randy Kemner, Owner, The Wine Country, Signal Hill, CA<br /> <thewinecountry@msn.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-20209343989140911252024-01-22T23:44:25.524+01:002024-01-22T23:44:25.524+01:00Very thorough analysis!Very thorough analysis!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-74684421311638411702024-01-16T19:22:48.154+01:002024-01-16T19:22:48.154+01:00I forwarded your article to Mark Hicken, who lives...I forwarded your article to Mark Hicken, who lives nearby. Gary Strachannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-71375114142893934442024-01-16T16:05:51.308+01:002024-01-16T16:05:51.308+01:00@JM show us the data that wine, in any amount, cau...@JM show us the data that wine, in any amount, causes seven cancers? I think you're guilty of what you're accusing other bodies of doing, knowingly or otherwise. Pushing generalized nonsense, making claims without any actual proof. Ironic. JAMOhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04741050277935399116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-44485893843227310562024-01-16T11:09:49.486+01:002024-01-16T11:09:49.486+01:00Thanks for your kind words. I will be pursuing thi...Thanks for your kind words. I will be pursuing this topic again next week.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-32920878830670879162024-01-16T11:07:03.370+01:002024-01-16T11:07:03.370+01:00I will be discussing this topic in my next post.I will be discussing this topic in my next post.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-45314837018362733832024-01-16T00:15:50.632+01:002024-01-16T00:15:50.632+01:00The issue: "...and may ACTUALLY have POSITIVE...The issue: "...and may ACTUALLY have POSITIVE effects on some aspects of HEALTH." The concept that wine is healthy was a placebo at best, now the outside world is calling out the clear deception and falsehood-- Either self-imposed or from fraudsters. Today, 10% of US consumers believe wine prevents cancer when it ACTUALLY causes seven CANCERS: that's what happens when health and wealth prosperity gospel take over. But if you stick pink ribbons on it, maybe it'll get people to buy.<br /><br />Today's thinkers realize anyone can make a j-curve show up on almost any data set. The field of epidemiology has surpassed the happy-accidents of 1990s. <br /><br />I believe wine can come back and become a relevant and symbol again. The expectations of industry has made industry seem totally unsympatricJMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-74945845881474250492024-01-15T18:40:04.698+01:002024-01-15T18:40:04.698+01:00Excellent article David and you illustrate clearly...Excellent article David and you illustrate clearly show many times scientific data can be manipulated for a desired outcome. Your two graphs clearly explain this. As a medical doctor, I encourage wine consumption in moderation because the data clearly shows the health benefits. Keep up the great writing. Cheers!james moiseshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17999432978183679230noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-58530665240470538842024-01-09T09:24:54.714+01:002024-01-09T09:24:54.714+01:00Great article, David. It's refreshing to engag...Great article, David. It's refreshing to engage with your insightful perspectives on alcohol risk mitigation. With the heightened focus on alcohol-related discussions anticipated in 2024, it's imperative that more individuals adopt a constructive approach to to the topics of reform, much like you have.<br /><br />It's important for those in the wine writing sector, especially the veterans among you, to be mindful of the language used when discussing policy and individuals. Made up spin terms like 'Neo-prohibitionist' purposely carry a mocking tone, while labels such as 'anti-alcohol' are overly simplistic and reflect bad faith arguments.<br /><br />The wine industry is currently navigating a crucial juncture where its traditional association with hospitality and community is being questioned. The industry's challenge is to move beyond the stereotypes of exclusivity and elitism, and to rediscover the essence of inclusivity that once defined it. Wine, in its truest sense, should symbolize a culture of appreciation, rather than being seen as a symbol of privilege, entitlement and the mocking of out groups.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-84371609374090624432023-12-06T18:14:33.505+01:002023-12-06T18:14:33.505+01:00I used to teach statistical analysis to biologists...I used to teach statistical analysis to biologists, and I can therefore honestly say that all data can be deceptive. However, we work with what we have. Moreover, as you point out, it is how we interpret the data that is most important — the more information that we have, then the better will be our interpretation. So, I am glad that you foresee helpful changes.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-37958354622973486992023-12-06T09:37:23.630+01:002023-12-06T09:37:23.630+01:00Paul White of www.winedisclosures.com here. Those ...Paul White of www.winedisclosures.com here. Those statistics are deceptive. It's more a case of New World producers having previously identified old vines. In researching my book, Talha Tales: Portugal's Ancient Answer to Amphora Wine I ran across dozens in Portugal that are over a century or near it. The locals just haven't realized the marketing potential in labelling their bottles as old vine yet. Many of these were registered around 1930-31 during Salazar government and at that point were very old already. Many pre-phylloxera, tiny parcels are currently dumped into cooperative blends without being separated out to show their strengths. But all this is changing. Paul Whitehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07400038768454499891noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-84379696670782859912023-12-01T20:07:40.934+01:002023-12-01T20:07:40.934+01:00I'd always been told wine helps with digestion...I'd always been told wine helps with digestion-- turns out that's totally untrue. The science behind the gut-brain connection is very new. We do know alcohol kills gut bacteria. Wine is "fermented" but the product "wine" is dead, unlike kombucha. JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-63940719034527513082023-12-01T14:45:58.522+01:002023-12-01T14:45:58.522+01:00I have never accepted the idea that wine itself is...I have never accepted the idea that wine itself is necessarily healthy. However, under certain circumstances it can be part of a healthy (happy?) lifestyle. That is certainly an important part of its role for me.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-55851984868172632972023-12-01T12:41:44.908+01:002023-12-01T12:41:44.908+01:00After two decades in the wine industry, it's c...After two decades in the wine industry, it's clear: the health benefits of wine were oversold. We believed in the French paradox and the J-curve, marketing wine as a health necessity. Turns out, it was wishful thinking, not solid science. Several recent studies debunk these claims, showing no real health advantages from moderate drinking.<br /><br />The medical community never fully endorsed wine as healthy. The touted benefits were a marketing mirage, ignoring facts like the 'sick-quitter' effect. We've been misled by a lucrative narrative.<br /><br />So, let's drink wine for its taste and tradition, not for health myths. Claims of alcohol as a health booster? Pure fiction. Enjoy wine for what it is, not for false health promises.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-30800796994200198992023-11-22T01:47:15.038+01:002023-11-22T01:47:15.038+01:00David, you've done it again with another fanta...David, you've done it again with another fantastic article! Please find a way to do sm.<br /><br />In a world where consumer advocacy is often overshadowed by commercial interests, you and the few other wine economics blogs stand out as beacons of truth and insight. As a fire ecologist, you understand that fire wasn't something humans invented; it's a natural phenomenon that has existed long before our species. Similarly, alcohol isn't unique to humans; fermented fruit has been consumed by various mammals for centuries.<br /><br />Wine, a product of the Neolithic Revolution, isn't solely European or grape-based. In the English language, there's no single word that encompasses all fermented fruits, so we use the term "wine" as a catch-all. At our core, humans are frugivores, meaning we primarily consume fruits, and only later evolved into omnivores and carnivores.<br /><br />Wine, in its truest form, is a global product that transcends cultural and geographical boundaries. Yet, there's often an overemphasis on attributing wine's origins solely to Europe.<br /><br />One crucial distinction that's often overlooked is the difference between table grapes and wine grapes. Table grapes are the plump, juicy, and sweet fruits we enjoy eating, while wine grapes are deliberately bred to not be eaten. Wine grapes can achieve double the sweetness of their table grape counterparts, making them unsuitable for direct consumption.<br /><br />Thank you, David, for consistently providing us with thought-provoking and informative content.JMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01955156457989850285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-79378106797386385692023-10-24T19:12:28.218+02:002023-10-24T19:12:28.218+02:00Sad to say, the planet seems able to make a lot mo...Sad to say, the planet seems able to make a lot more wine than the population wants to drink. Even tho most wine is now well grown and well made.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com