Monday, August 31, 2020

Australia's exciting new national wine climate atlas

We are constantly told that high-quality wine depends as much on the local climate (terroir) as it does on the skill of the winemaker (eg. If you want ‘authentic’ wine, you need to understand terroir). This is formalized in most wine regions by recognizing explicitly demarcated and named local areas. Only grapes grown within those areas can make wine marketed with the designated area name. [Note: it is the name that is legally protected, not the wine itself!]

This approach leads to an obvious requirement: an atlas of the grape-growing characteristics of the local environment for every square inch of the planet. That way, we would be able to work out:
  • what grape varieties are currently likely to do best in each area
  • what the environment might be like in the near future (given global climate change)
  • what grape varieties we could be trialing now, to meet that change.
This would be pretty nifty to have, bit neither you nor I is expecting to see it any time soon.


That is, unless you happen to be an Australian, because then you would already have this for your entire country / island / continent. The Australian wine industry is a pretty pro-active affair, not least because it has had to muscle its way into a business already pretty occupied by Europeans and North Americans, and with a bunch of South Americans chasing close behind. To make some space for yourself, you need to do something not just new but very different (eg. developing bag-in-box packaging, as well as the Stelvin screwcap).

To this end, there is a government authority called Wine Australia (originally founded in 1981, under another name), which regulates and promotes the national wine industry. In March this year it released the results of a 3-year project called Australia’s Wine Future: a Climate Atlas. This is a free online resource of climate information nationally, for all designated wine areas (which are formally called Geographic Indications). It provides detailed climate information since 1960 for each of Australia’s GIs, along with projections indicating how the climate is likely to change in the near, mid and long terms (as far as the year 2100).

Here is an example page from the Atlas, covering the Hunter region, north of Sydney — the first wine region I ever visited (40 years ago), and apparently now a hotbed of pandemic land sales (Hunter Valley vineyards fly out the door). There are five information pages for each GI, and this shows the example for Heat, in the Hunter (click to enlarge).


The Atlas graphs a bunch of climate indices, including:
  • temperature (one page) growing season temperature (GST); growing degree days (GDD);
  • rainfall and evaporative demand (two pages) annual, monthly and seasonal rainfall; growing season rainfall; number of rainy days during harvest; annual, monthly and seasonal aridity; number of dry spells before harvest;
  • heat extremes (one page) extreme heat factor (EHF) during a heatwave; heatwave duration and intensity; number of days per year exceeding specified temperature thresholds; frequency of days with high human heat stress;
  • cold extremes (one page) number of days at risk of frost during the growing season; daily minimum temperature; annual chilling degree days; number of days per year below specified temperature thresholds.
The GI maps are based on either a 5 km or 10 km grid, which is good enough for most agricultural purposes, but not fine enough for detailed vineyard planning — however, there is ongoing project using AI to map Australia’s 65 wine regions row-by-row (cf. the satellite imaging used by the Saturnalia system). The Atlas meteorological data often explicitly compare the 19611990 period with the 19972017 period, the latter being after the effects of global climate change started to become really obvious — this makes it clear just how much our world has changed within my lifetime.

The final report on the research project can be found here (PDF) with all of the methodological details. The various parts of the Atlas itself (PDFs), are linked at the bottom of the page here (arranged by GIs within states).

Conclusion

Australians have always referred to their homeland as The Lucky Country. The rest of the world wine industries should be so lucky (or, better yet, well organized).

Monday, August 24, 2020

Much variation in wine duties in Europe

As most of you will have noticed, there is a so-called trade war going on between the USA and Europe. This has nothing to do with the wine industry, directly, but it has been dragged into it because some of the personalities behind the squabble think that it is a good idea.

This raises the issue of how much of the cost of wine to the poor consumer is due to the contents of the bottle, and how much is mandated by the government. US readers are concerned about import duties, for example, given the dramatic rise in the price they currently pay for European wine.

However, in this post, I will look at alcohol excise duties, as they apply to wine within Europe itself. Almost all European countries also have some form of value-added tax on all retail sales (sometimes called a goods and services tax); and there are, of course, import duties for non-European wine. However, some countries target alcohol with an extra tax, just for good measure; and this is the topic here.

The European Union

The EU is well documented with regard to taxes. In this case, the Tax Foundation has produced a convenient map, as shown below (click to enlarge). The prices shown are based on a standard bottle of wine, at the normal percentage alcohol. The colors reflect the size of the tax, in euros. The Foundation’s web page lists equivalent $US, if you prefer that currency.

Wine excise duties in the EU

The Foundation notes:
As one might expect, southern European countries well-known for their wines — such as France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain — have decided against taxing it or do so at a very low rate, while further north countries tend to levy taxes — sometimes hefty taxes.
This will suggest to you that the wine consumers of northern Europe are well versed in the matter of how to avoid alcohol duties, by crossing their border into another country before purchasing, where the duty is lower (see the examples my post: European wine taxes — and what to do about them).

The European Free Trade Association

As noted on the map, countries like Norway, Iceland and Switzerland are in Europe but are not part of the EU (as now is the case also for the United Kingdom). These countries are mostly part of the EFTA, and thus should be included in this post.

Switzerland keeps it simple. There are both alcohol and tobacco taxes, but: “The alcohol tax does not apply to traditional fermented products such as beer, wine and cider. Beer, however, is subject to a beer tax levied by the Federal Customs Administration.” So, wine is better than beer!

The information for Norway is not at all simple, as noted by the official web page. It seems that the excise duty for wine varies depending on the actual alcohol content (which it does not for either beer or spirits) — 5.11 NOK per percent per liter. So, a standard bottle of 13% wine would cost you an extra 50 NOK, or € 4.75. This is much higher than anywhere within the EU; which explains why the liquor store with the biggest turnover in neighboring Sweden is the one that can be most easily accessed from Norway’s capital, Oslo.

Iceland appears to be even worse. Back in 2018, the government made alcohol taxes even more onerous than they already were for the locals (see: Alcohol tax: Iceland pays the most In Europe). To quote a press release:
When compared to Norway, a neighbouring country with high alcohol taxes, taxes are on average 28.8% higher in Iceland, with taxes on fortified wines, such as port and sherry, a whopping 89% higher.
The Icelandic Federation of Trade has produced a graph illustrating the point, as shown here (click to enlarge). It is in Icelandic, but the country names are pretty clear, and you can easily guess which one is Norway and which pair is Iceland (before and after the tax change). The four bars for each country are (left to right): spirits, strong wine, light wine, and beer.

Wine excise duties in the EFTA

Sadly, the Icelanders have no land border to cross, in order to get cheaper wine. Perhaps this explains why their government thinks they can get away with this outrageous tax.

Monday, August 17, 2020

From the sublime to the ridiculous in winery architecture

Before I became a professional scientist, I considered becoming an architect. I have lots of books on the subject, from my teen years, and a few odd designs of my own. The architecture of buildings associated with vineyards is therefore of special interest to me, including wineries and their restaurants.

I am a bit of a classicist, myself, preferring the 1800s styles to more recent stuff. Indeed, what is called Modern Architecture is rightly maligned by many commentators, because it places great emphasis on buildings looking functional, irrespective of whether those buildings are actually functional in any practical sense. This is called the functional aesthetic, dating back all of 100 years now, and eschews any connection between humans and their actual environment.

However, I grew up in Sydney when they were building the Opera House, so I got used to modern design along the way. This structure is supposed to have been inspired by the sails of the boats on Sydney Harbour. However, the original architect’s sketch had to be heavily modified, in order to make the building actually stay up; and inside things are not good at all (see my discussion of The acoustics of the Sydney Opera House). It is a classic case of the functional aesthetic at its worst.

Sydney Opera House

In the wine world, many organizations have tried to make contributions to architectural novelty, but not always with artistic success, in my opinion. I believe that architects call it “eye-catching architecture”; but, to me, the eye does not always wish to linger. Obviously, I am not going to review all possible architectural styles here, but merely look at some that I like and dislike, and most of which I have seen, at least from the outside (click on the images to expand them). What I wish to discuss here is whether any of these buildings is worth looking at, rather than whether they are functional.

Spain has long been a hotbed of innovative architectural design, and so we can expect the Spanish to have their fair share of interesting winery buildings. Let’s start with one that follows the Opera House in using its environment for inspiration. The roofline of Bodegas Ysios (Rioja) nicely reflects the hills that form the backdrop as you approach for your tasting. The form matches the environment, just as it does in Sydney.

Bodegas Ysios

Sadly, the same cannot be said for Bodegas Protos (Ribera del Duero), which looks like a set of quonset huts, or a bad airport terminal.

Bodegas Protos

What I find particularly distressing here is that this building is at the foot of the hill on which stands the 15th century Castello di Peñafiel. This houses the local wine museum (Museo Provincial del Vino), which also conducts tastings of the local wines. Why couldn’t the architect have used this for inspiration, instead?

Castello di Peñafiel

Just as bad is Codorníu, the oldest wine-making company is Spain. Their winery was clearly based on an old railway terminus, but without any of the architectural elegance often associated with the steam age. Cava production deserves better.

Codorníu

More amusingly, in a different Spanish-speaking part of the world, the Clos Apalta Lapostolle Winery (Colchagua Valley, Chile) looks like it was modeled on a dinosaur skeleton. For heaven's sake, why?

Clos Apalta Lapostolle

For comparison, we can move on to Germany, and look at Schloss Johanisberg (Rheingau), which has been making wine for 900 years. This is just the way an old-established winery should be, with all of its historical elegance perfectly preserved.

Schloss Johanisberg

Nearby, Schloss Vollrads is pretty good, too (although its name is pretty inexcusable, even in German). The tasting room is at the bottom of the tower, set in a small lake.

Schloss Vollrads

As an aside, Schloss Johannisberg is actually part of the giant Henkell Freixenet group (although very few of their many brands mention this fact on their web sites). Recently, this company announced that Katnook Estate (in Coonawarra, Australia) would be one of the flagships of its portfolio of iconic international wineries. The current winery is almost as Australian as it gets — it is but one step up from the standard corrugated-iron shed you will find elsewhere.

Katnook Estate

Actually, most modern Australian wineries tend to look like a railway terminus, with a verandah stuck on the front for the customers. It is always a dead give-away when, in spite of lots of pictures, nowhere on the web site does a company show the outside of their winery. This one is from Shaw and Smith, of the Adelaide Hills — you can see what I mean.


One interesting architectural problem is to combine historical buildings with a modern winery, hotel or restaurant, when it is not practical to convert the historical buildings themselves. This business of trying to combine modern and historical buildings is one that is fraught with danger for architects. If they get it wrong, then we no longer need to talk about “the good, the bad, and the ugly” because the bad and the ugly become the same thing.

One successful approach is simply to separate the buildings in space. For example, the Barone Ricasoli (Chianti) winery and tasting room are boring, and are placed at the bottom of the hill, near the main road, while the hilltop Castello di Brolio is pretty neat (and you can wander around the garden, if you ring the bell).

Castello di Brolio

Another approach is to try constructing something that matches the older buildings as best you can. This has been done reasonably well, for example, at Château Pichon-Longueville Comtesse de Lalande (Bordeaux). The winery is in the buildings to the left and right of the 19th century chateau, and built from the same stone, with the maturation cellar underneath the forecourt that connects the three buildings.

Château Pichon-Longueville Comtesse de Lalande

On the other hand, if you want to see how to make a complete mess of it, then you need go only a few kilometers south, to Château Cheval Blanc. Here, the winery and cellar building has no architectural connection whatsoever to the adjacent 19th century chateau, looking more like a beached whale, instead. The owners describe the cellar building as “a simple design that seems out of time”, but to me its seems very much out of place, as well. Couldn’t they have put it somewhere else?

Château Cheval Blanc

A similar example, from Australia, was the original inspiration for writing this blog post. I have written before about the Seppeltsfield winery (in the Barossa Valley), which was the first winery I ever visited. The buildings all come from the 1800s, at which you arrive via a 5 km driving avenue of more than 2,000 Canary Island Date Palms.

Seppeltsfield

Well, in their wisdom, the new owners have decided to build (at great expense) a new hotel and restaurant nearby. To me, it looks just like an alpine ski jump after an unfortunate earthquake. It may well become iconic, but, if so, it will be for all the wrong reasons. [Update: the locals are now going to court to have this development stopped. Second update: sadly, they failed.]

Hotel Oscar Seppeltsfield

Trying to create iconic buildings is a hazard faced by many architects. Another Australian example is the restaurant building at the D’Arenburg winery, in McLaren Vale. It is, as you can see, based on a half-completed Rubik’s Cube, which inspiration seems to have nothing to do with wineries. It is now closed, after 2.5 years of operation.

Cube Restaurant

However, to me, absolutely the worst example of winery-associated architecture is back in Spain, at the hotel of Bodegas Marqués de Riscal (Rioja). I am told that it is “architecturally cutting-edge”, but it is so clearly out of place that it hurts — it looks even worse in real life than it does in pictures.

Bodegas Marqués de Riscal hotel

Clearly, a child has screwed up some cellophane into balls to decorate their Christmas tree, and Frank Gehry (the alleged architect) then turned this idea into a building. He should hang his head in shame — the nearby 16th century church, Iglesia de San Andrés, seems to be doing so.

Town of Elciego

Let’s move on to more pleasant topics. Other wineries have, indeed, been inspired by older architecture, rather than trying to be aggressively modern, especially in North America.

For example, the Clos Pegase Winery (Napa Valley) claims to be “inspired by the agrarian buildings of southern Europe”. This appears to be so, although somewhat simplified from the originals.

Clos Pegase Winery

A similarly inspired winery hails from New Zealand, at Highfield TerraVin (Marlborough).

Highfield TerraVin

Perhaps less successful is the Opus One Winery (Napa Valley), at least partly because of some clashing details of style, and the fact that it is half buried, which most traditional winery buildings are not. Indeed, one of the tenets of most architecture has been that we no longer live in caves, no matter how well-insulated they are.

Opus One Winery

Interestingly, the Mission Hill Winery, in British Columbia, does seem to have been based on a European abbey, one of the very few winery-related buildings to be that way. Some of the architects of the buildings mentioned above should have taken note.

Mission Hill Winery

However, it is not necessary for the New World to copy the Old World. Vernacular American architecture, for example, is just as valid a role model as anything else. The best-known North American example is probably the Robert Mondavi Winery (Napa Valley), which reflects the Spanish-mission adobe architecture of California.

Robert Mondavi Winery

In South America, there is the Bodega Catena Zapata (Mendoza), which recently topped the World’s Most Admired Wine Brands list for 2020. The building is, as you can see, inspired by the indigenous Mayan pyramids.

Bodega Catena Zapata

An interesting alternative is for a New World winery to be based on a foreign New World model. In New Zealand, the Mission Estate Winery (Hawke's Bay) looks just like a southern US plantation estate.

Mission Estate Winery

At the other extreme, there are more unfortunate examples of architectural inspiration. I am told that the Dominus Estate (Napa Valley) building is “a powerful but subtle composition that makes great architecture out of humble agricultural and industrial ingredients”. To me, it looks like the worst form of military installation — it needs only a barbed-wire fence to complete the illusion.

Dominus Estate

Mind you, it might be better than the Pacherhof Wine Cellar, in South Tyrol, northern Italy. This is definitely based on a World War II army bunker (the rest of the building is underground). I keep expecting Adolf and Eva to walk past at any moment. Worst of all, it is near a 12th-century abbey, Abbazia di Novacella, which would have been a much better architectural model.

Pacherhof Wine Cellar

If you are looking for an underground winery, then Cantine Antinori, in Tuscany, Italy, has the most ambitious one, with the roof of the final building being part of the vineyard. No mention is made of the quality of the resulting wine, however.

Cantine Antinori

What they had to do to the hillside does not bear thinking about, however. Here is a construction photo. They excavated 14 hectares (35 acres) of the hillside, and then had to drive 17,000 piles into the unstable soil, in order to achieve this result.

Cantine Antinori during construction

I cannot, of course, end on a negative note. So, I will end with my favorite modern winery architecture. It does not yet, as far as I know, actually exist (it is still listed as a concept). This is for the Shilda Winery, of Kakheti, in the cradle of wine-making, the country of Georgia.

Shilda Winery concept

We do not need to be told what the inspiration was for this tasting room, as we can clearly see it for ourselves. To quote various sources around the web:
The 2.5 meter spacing of the vineyard is translated into the structural grid of the building and articulated through a series of curved beams. The form is a considered response to the environmental factors of the area and the qualities of the wine. The building uses the thermal mass of the soil to moderate the internal temperature, where the wine is stored, served and tasted.
This represents everything that I could hope for from a modern architect — architecture that is simple, functional and aesthetic. If I can’t have the classic stuff (and I usually can’t), then this is a very good substitute.

Monday, August 10, 2020

France's changing wine industry

Recently, Robert Joseph contemplated the reduction in French cafes (a.k.a. bars), boulangeries (artisan bakeries) and wine producers over recent years (As France’s wine industry contracts, an incalculable cultural loss). I will miss the boulangeries, but as an elderly over-weight man with diabetes, I can no longer safely enter them. The wineries and grape-growers are, however, another matter. After all, they are part of the subject of this blog.


The numbers quoted are quite startling. We are not talking about a small change — we are talking about a serious contraction in the number of producers. As I have noted before, I prefer pictures to numbers, even sad numbers; and a picture of a set of numbers is a graph. So, let's look at some graphs based on the Agrimer report cited in Robert Joseph's article (Les chiffres-clés de la filière Viti-Vinicole: Données statistiques 2008/2018).

We can start with the big view, covering all of France from 1995 to 2018. This first graph shows the number of producers who reported grape harvests (vertically) in each year (horizontally). It indicates a pretty serious contraction over 24 years, both commercial and non-commercial.

Number of French grape-growers 1995-2018

There are two topics that we could now pursue:
  1. What has this contraction done to French wine production?
  2. How has the contraction applied across the different wine-making regions?
Let's take them in order.

Wine production

Has the reduction in the number of producers simply resulted in consolidation of a larger number of small businesses into fewer but larger producers? The answer to this question is shown in the next two graphs, the first for grape-growing area, and the second for wine production. These show that, even though there has been a 50% reduction in the number of commercial producers, there has been only a 10-15% reduction in grape-growing area and wine production.

Amount of French grape-growing area 1995-2018
Amount of French wine production 1995-2018

As Robert Joseph noted, this is a big cultural change, as family businesses get absorbed into bigger concerns. However, it is a not a particularly big change in France's role as a wine producer. That is, France's wine industry has changed a lot, but not contracted by much.

In many ways, the reduction in producers is sad, because artisanal production creates diversity, and this has been an increasing trend in the wine production of the so-called New World, over the past few decades. However, in the modern world, this approach requires extensive direct-to-consumer relationships, and this has not been a big part of wine production in the Old World (yet?).

Boulangeries, on the other hand, have always sold directly to their customers, as I can attest many times.

Wine regions

In order to look at the wine-making regions separately, the Agrimer report provides data for 2008-2018 only, and groups the numbers into the standard governmental administrative regions. As above, these next three graphs show the number of producers who reported grape harvests (vertically) in each year (horizontally), but thus time for each of the 12 French regions with notable wine production. [Note the change in the vertical scale.]

Number of French grape-growers 2008-2018 by wine-making region
Number of French grape-growers 2008-2018 by wine-making region
Number of French grape-growers 2008-2018 by wine-making region

So, the only two regions without notable reductions in producers are Champagne and Corsica. Otherwise, the reductions vary from 29% (Burgundy) to 86% (Lower Loire). The Upper Loire (71%) has not done much better than the Lower Loire; and both Midi-Pyrénées (76%) and Poitou-Charentes (72%) are in the same boat. Aquitane (52%), which includes Bordeaux, and Auvergne Rhône-Alpes (55%) have not fared a great deal better.

The reductions are mostly quite continuous through time in each region, indicating a widespread gradual reduction over the 11 years. That is, these are long-term trends, rather than very recent or sudden phenomena. This adds to their cultural significance, as a progressive change in French society.

Presumably, the reductions will all flatten out at some future time, when the minimum number of producers is reached. There is not a strong relationship between reductions and the number of producers, so it is not those areas with the largest numbers that have the largest reductions. Nor, apparently, does international fame have much to do with it — Bordeaux, Burgundy and Champagne have all fared very differently.

Anyway, the reductions in the number of producers have been a widespread phenomenon — the national trend is repeated within most regions.

Outlook

Changes of ownership, which is basically what we are discussing here, have other social dimensions, as well. For example, it is reported that recently “out of 8,000 vineyards and chateaux in Bordeaux, the Chinese have bought about 170 estates, representing about 3% of the wine region’s overall ownership” (China’s global ‘colonization’ of vineyards). This sort of activity can be just as big a cultural change as the actual reductions in numbers of producers.

Finally, recent events may drastically change the trends discussed here, so that the data for 2020 could be quite different. French wine-makers have been faced with steep drops in sales, first due to U.S. tariffs curbing exports, and then the national lockdown closing restaurants and bars. The government has had to step in, to the tune of €250 million so far (France pours more aid as wine sector faces ‘major difficulties’); but this year may encourage even more grape-growers to sell-up and find alternative ways to make a living.

Monday, August 3, 2020

The Judgment of Paris demonstrated nothing, statistically speaking

Way back in 1976 there was a comparative tasting of several fancy (and expensive) American and French wines, in which the US wines acquitted themselves quite well. This became known as The Judgment of Paris, a classical allusion that probably escapes most people.

The media made much of this outcome at the time, claiming that the American wines “won” some sort of contest, and should now be considered to be the best in the world, or at least the equal of the French stuff. Indeed, whole books have been written about this; and the volume of words in the media is horrendous to think of.


However, it seems to me that there is one thing missing here, and always has been. Since the quality scores assigned by each taster to each wine are available to us, we can judge for ourselves whether the scores actually show anything more than random variation. After all, the sample size was very small: 20 wines tasted by 11 people. I have already argued the case that the results are very variable in all the wrong ways, if one wishes to compare the wines of two countries (11 tasters and 20 wines, and very little consensus). Well, I have finally decided to bite the bullet, and apply some formal statistical analyses to the data — this blog is the only place likely to try this exercise!

Now, before you all jump up and down reminding everyone of the old saying that there are “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”, bear with me for a moment. That statement dates from the 1890s, long before the development of modern mathematical methods to study data involving probabilities. There are now many powerful methods for analyzing data in an objective and repeatable way, ones that generate no controversy about their outcome. Statistics is no longer whatever you want to make of it.

In the case at hand, there are several possible causes of variation in the quality scores assigned to the wines:
  1. the wines come from two countries — this is what we want to examine
  2. for each country, there were 10 reds and 10 whites selected out of all of the high-quality wines that could have been chosen for inclusion — the results might have been different if other wines had been chosen
  3. there were only 11 people selected as tasters, out of all of the wine critics that could have been chosen — the results might have been different if other tasters had been chosen
  4. these people were of different genders, and there were not equal numbers of males and females.
There are other factors that might be important, of course, but this list is all the information that we have. The point here is that we wish to study factor 1, and to do so we need to take into account the variation caused by factors 2, 3 and 4. This is what modern statistical analysis is all about — studying one source of variation if the face of variation cased by other factors. How do we do this in some objective and repeatable way?

The answer, as formalized by Ronald Fisher in the 1920s, is called Analysis of Variance. It does precisely what the name says — it tries to measure the amount of variation caused by each of the factors. If the variation for any particular factor has a strong pattern, compared to the others, then we can consider it to be an important one, and if the variation has no particular pattern then it is not important. This comparison is made with respect to the variation that is not accounted for by the specified factors.

The concept is fairly simple, but (of course) the mathematics is not. It can often be done by hand, if you are inclined to try that sort of thing, but I always use a computer program. I have used this type of analysis many times in my own research career; and I have even taught this analysis to undergraduate and postgraduate biology students. So, what happens if I apply it to the data from the Judgment of Paris?

Well, you already know the answer to that, from the title of this blog post. The formal details of the analysis are included at the bottom of the post, for those of you who might be interested in them. Here is a summary of the results:

Factor
Country
Wine
Gender
Person
F-value
1.37
5.64
0.01
3.63
Probability
0.256
0.000
0.908
0.000

Each row of the table refers to a formal statistical test of one of the four factors. The F-value (named after Fisher himself) is the result of the calculations — for purely random data this value will = 1. The probability is a measure of how likely it is that the F-value is not > 1. By convention, we might choose p < 0.05 as our criterion for concluding that a factor shows important variation.

As you can see, there is almost no variation between the two genders, in our sample, which may surprise none of you. There is some variation between the two countries, but it is not very large, and is nowhere near “statistical significance”. All of the fuss about the results is nonsense — the differences are nothing more than we would expect from random chance, 26% of the time.

This does not mean that there were no differences between the wines, because there surely were. However, the analysis indicates that these differences had nothing to with which country they came from. Simply put, some wines scored consistently much higher than others, meaning that the tasters agreed that they were better wines, irrespective of where they came from.

Unsurprisingly, the analysis also shows that there were big differences between the critics, with some of them giving much higher scores than others, irrespective of the wine. I produced a graph of this in my previous post on this topic, which I have reproduced here. It shows who scored highest (at the top) and who scored lowest (at the bottom).


Conclusion

The statistical analysis makes it clear that the variation in scores was no different from what we would expect from any single collection of wines and people at one place and one time. Some wines scored better than others, and some people gave higher scores than others, and the country of origin had nothing to do with it.

That is, we would not expect the results to be repeatable. Nor were they, as have I already pointed out in two previous blog posts (Was the Judgment of Paris repeatable? Did California wine-tasters agree with the results of the Judgment of Paris?). Different people tasting the same wines produced different results.

There were lots of differences in scores between the wines and between the people, but not much difference between the countries. So, what was all of the fuss about? Cultural politics, is my guess.




Analyses

I tried several different General Linear Models, using the Minitab package. The Country and Gender factors were both fixed; and the Wine and Person factors were nested within them.

Factor
Country
Wine(Country)
Gender
Person(Gender)  
Type
fixed
random
fixed
random
Levels
2
20
2
11

The simplest model (as reported above) has only the four main factors.

Factor
Country
Wine
Gender
Person
Residual  
DF
1
18
1
9
190
Sum Squares
69.323
908.359
0.456
292.376
1699.168
F-value
1.37
5.64
0.01
3.63
  
P-value
0.256
0.000
0.908
0.000
  

It is also possible to add several of the interactions between pairs of the four factors. However, in this case some of the F-tests will only be approximate, based on adjusted sums-of-squares (these are indicated with an asterisk). The most complex model has three 2-factor interactions; adding the fourth 2-factor interaction collapses the model.

Factor
Country
Wine
Gender
Person
Country*Gender
Country*Person
Gender*Wine
Residual  
DF
1
18
1
9
1
9
18
162
Adj. Sum Squares
50.464
576.866
0.767
250.450
1.146
104.767
67.162
1526.094
F-value
1.47
8.59
0.03
2.39
0.19
1.24
0.40
  
P-value
0.242 *
0.000
0.859 *
0.105
0.701 *
0.277
0.987
  

Note that in this analysis the Person factor is no longer statistically significant (due to the presence of the Person*Country interaction). Otherwise, the conclusions do not change.