Monday, November 8, 2021

Unrecorded versus officially Recorded alcohol consumption

Reports of national alcohol consumption (either total or per capita) have always seemed a bit odd, to me. How do the people reporting this know how much people are drinking? Well, obviously, they can do surveys, and ask people how much they are prepared to say that they drink (eg. Completeness and validity of alcohol recording in general practice within the UK). The reporters could also estimate the total amount of alcohol officially available (local production plus the imported stuff), and then divide by the number of people involved.


However, all of this ignores what is usually called the “unreported” or “unrecorded” consumption. This includes all sorts of alcohol, such as home-made fermented wine and beer, home-made distilled spirits (moonshine), smuggled alcohol, re-purposed alcohol (eg. originally intended for industrial or medical uses), surrogate alcohol (eg. ethanol), etc. What are we supposed to think regarding all of this? Doesn’t this also count as “alcohol consumption”?

Well, it turns out that the World Health Organization has had a go at trying to look into this topic. Their WHO Global Status Report on Alcohol and Health 2018 has data for both Recorded and Unrecorded alcohol consumption for each of 189 countries (or territories). You can also find the data tabulated on Wikipedia (List of countries by alcohol consumption per capita).

The data are 3-year averages for 2015–2017, based on persons 15 years and older. The Recorded alcohol “is alcohol consumed as a beverage that is recorded in official statistics, such as data on alcohol taxation or sales” (see the WHO Global Survey on Alcohol and Health), while the Unrecorded amount was mathematically modeled based on the data from several surveys, including expert judgements (see Appendix IV.1.2 of the WHO report). Both data are reported as pure alcohol consumption in liters per capita per year.

I have graphed the data in the following figure. Each point represents one country (or territory) in the WHO table, with the Recorded consumption horizontally and the Unrecorded consumption vertically. The so-called western countries are represented by the orange dots, with the remainder in blue.

The pink line represents the situation where the two types of consumption are equal — above the line, estimated Unrecorded consumption exceeds the officially Recorded consumption, and vice versa below the line.

Unrecorded versus recorded alcohol consumption, by country.

Note, first, that there are not actually 189 dots visible in the graph, as some countries are superimposed, notably those with both consumptions reported as zero: Bangladesh, Kuwait, Libya, Mauritania, Somalia, and Yemen. Other countries have minuscule consumption, including: Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Kiribati, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria. These are, as expected, all Moslem-dominated countries.

For the western countries (orange dots in the graph), Recorded consumption usually far exceeds Unrecorded consumption. For example, the countries at the bottom-right of the graph include (from the right); Estonia, Lithuania, Czechia, and Austria. However, there are five such countries where Unrecorded consumption exceeds 30% of the total consumption (the orange points towards the top of the graph): North Macedonia (43%), Greece (40%), the Ukraine (36%), Albania (33%) and Russia (31%). Conversely, those countries where Recorded consumption is less than 10% of the total consumption include: Austria (3.4%), Estonia (6.5%), Italy (6.6%), the Netherlands (7.4%), Australia (7.7%), Lithuania (8.0%), the United States (8.3%) and Belgium (8.8%).

The non-western country at the top-right of the graph is Nigeria, with the sixth biggest total consumption, but with 28% of this being Unrecorded. The countries on the left of the line (Unrecorded > Recorded) are (from top to bottom): Vietnam, Myanmar, Tajikistan, the Maldives, East Timor, and Nepal. Here, access to professionally produced drinks is apparently very limited.

Note that Haiti is on the bottom axis (zero Unrecorded consumption), and Bahrain is only just above that axis. Similarly, a few of countries are on the vertical axis (zero Recorded consumption), including: Comoros, Niger, Iran, Sudan, and Afghanistan.

I have included below a list of the countries, ranked in decreasing order of how far they are from equality of Recorded versus Unrecorded consumption. That is, a large positive number in the ranking means that Recorded >> Unrecorded, whereas a negative number indicates Unrecorded > Recorded.

If you would like to see some neat graphs and maps about recorded alcohol worldwide, then consult Our World in Data — Alcohol Consumption.




The saga of the iPad Mini, mentioned in my last post, has continued. In spite of being a recent device, it has an old version of iOS. This version cannot be updated wirelessly, according to the error message I get, when I try to update it. The message says that I must instead use iTunes on a Mac. However, my Mac Mini is old, and when I connect the iPad it tells me that the Mac does not have a version of iTunes that will allow me to do this. I tried to use my MacBook, which is more recent, but its OSX operating system no longer has a separate iTunes app. I eventually found an iMac with an intermediate version of OSX — old enough to still have iTunes but recent enough to allow me to connect the iPad. Why is modern computing like this?!?



The following list sorts the countries by the extent to which Recorded consumption exceeds Unrecorded consumption. At the top of the list are those countries that are furthest from the line of equality, to the right in the graph (Recorded > Unrecorded), while those countries at the bottom are those furthest from the line of equality, to the left in the graph (Unrecorded > Recorded). The numbers are simply the shortest distance from each graph point to the line.

Territory
Estonia
Lithuania
Czechia
Seychelles
Austria
France
Moldova
Bulgaria
Germany
Ireland
Belgium
Hungary
Cook Islands
Latvia
Slovenia
Slovakia
Australia
Poland
United Kingdom
Portugal
Luxembourg
Andorra
Equatorial Guinea
Croatia
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Switzerland
Denmark
Romania
Saint Lucia
Belarus
United States
South Korea
Cyprus
New Zealand
Barbados
Gabon
Grenada
Serbia
Bahamas
Antigua and Barbuda
Canada
Argentina
Uruguay
Netherlands
Spain
Malta
Italy
Chile
Finland
Iceland
Trinidad and Tobago
St Vincent & the Grenadines
Nigeria
Namibia
Uganda
Japan
Haiti
Panama
Dominica
Brazil
Sweden
Georgia
Niue
Norway
South Africa
Thailand
Rwanda
Belize
Eswatini
Montenegro
Russia
Dominican Republic
China
Cameroon
Botswana
Mongolia
Paraguay
Mexico
Kazakhstan
Guyana
Peru
Laos
Angola
Venezuela
Suriname
Cuba
Colombia
Tanzania
São Tomé and Príncipe
North Korea
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Costa Rica
Albania
Cape Verde
Bolivia
Philippines
Nicaragua
Ukraine
Zimbabwe
Jamaica
Ecuador
Greece
Gambia
Armenia
Bahrain
Kyrgyzstan
Congo
Honduras
Burkina Faso
El Salvador
Singapore
Israel
Mauritius
Turkmenistan
North Macedonia
Samoa
Liberia
Fiji
Ivory Coast
Sierra Leone
Sri Lanka
Nauru
Lesotho
Guinea-Bissau
Zambia
Tunisia
Lebanon
Micronesia
Guatemala
Tuvalu
Burundi
Qatar
Turkey
Solomon Islands
Ghana
Uzbekistan
Tonga
Vanuatu
India
Kenya
Brunei
United Arab Emirates
Malawi
Togo
Cambodia
Azerbaijan
Djibouti
Kiribati
Mozambique
Papua New Guinea
Algeria
Malaysia
Benin
Morocco
Syria
Central African Republic
Ethiopia
DR Congo
Oman
Jordan
Egypt
Iraq
Yemen
Bangladesh
Kuwait
Libya
Mauritania
Somalia
Eritrea
Mali
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia
Bhutan
Afghanistan
Madagascar
Chad
Senegal
Pakistan
Niger
Guinea
Sudan
Maldives
Comoros
Nepal
East Timor
Iran
Tajikistan
Myanmar
Vietnam
Distance
10.4
8.9
7.8
7.8
7.8
7.3
7.1
7.1
7.0
7.0
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.2
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
-0.2
-0.4
-0.4
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.6
-0.7
-1.0
-1.1
-1.6

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