However, for quite some time now we have repeatedly been told that there is a turning point in the global wine industry (eg. Wine in crisis: Navigating prohibitionist waves and market shifts). For example, John Barker, director-general of the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), recently presented preliminary estimates on the state of the world wine and vine sector in 2023 at the OIV annual conference, in which wine production exceeded wine consumption (Wine production and consumption declining). Such a situation is obviously not sustainable, and it is thus worth looking into here.
Most commentators simply compare current consumption to current production, which is actually not much help for our current purposes (see below). Nevertheless, the global production each year since 2000 is shown above (in mega-hectoliters); and the annual global consumption is shown below. These graphs come from the OIV’s State of the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2023 report.
Note that production varies greatly from year to year, depending mainly on the growing conditions. Consumption, on the other hand, varies much less between years, but it has generally been decreasing since 2007, and there has been a more rapid decrease in the last two years. It is this latter observation that seems to be of most concern to many of the commentators. Indeed, it has been reported now that US cannabis use outpaces daily alcohol consumption.
However, what we actually need to know is how the two measurements (production and consumption) directly compare to each other through time. This is shown in the next graph, where each point represents one of the years since 2000. I have taken the data from the OIV database, and plotted it myself. If annual consumption equals production then the points would lie along the along the pink line (one of them is close). However, all of the points are actually below that line, meaning that production exceeds consumption, considerably, and has done so every year since 2000. That is, the so-called “current problem” has actually been situation–normal for more than 2 decades!
There is a (small) technical problem here, however. Since both production and consumption vary from year to year, and in response to completely different factors, it matters which years we compare. Notably, in the northern hemisphere any given year’s wine consumption occurs mostly before that year’s wine production, while in the southern hemisphere it is afterwards (ie. their vintage is early in the year). The OIV data show that most production and consumption occurs in the northern hemisphere. So, the next graph compares annual production to consumption the year before, and plots it through time (NB: for points above zero, production exceeds consumption).
Note that the excess wine production over consumption varies greatly from year to year, mainly in response to variation in production. However, for 2 decades now, wine supply has exceeded consumption by an average of 13% and a maximum of more than 24%. The authorities and commentators need to get their collective heads around this simple fact — up to 15% (one-seventh) of vineyards have apparently been in excess of requirements during this century, and presumably could usefully be removed.
Looking in a bit more detail, we can also consider different types of wine. The next graph is taken from the Focus OIV 2023: Evolution of World Wine Production and Consumption by Colour report. It shows the global consumption data separated into the three different main wine types. It makes clear that red wine consumption has generally been decreasing since 2007, while white wine consumption has generally been increasing (until 2017), and that rosé has remained steady (and inline with production). So, we might conclude that it is the red-wine vineyard area that has gradually become more and more in excess of requirements.
Export of much of wine production means that it difficult to identify exactly where production is in excess — eg. Sweden produces wine but nowhere near enough to meet local demand (Swedish wineries — who'd have thought it?). Production in Sweden thus cannot be in excess of local requirements! Moreover, the top eight global producers made 75% of the world’s wine last year, so this is presumably where we should look.
Interestingly, as shown in the next graph (taken from the OIV’s State report, referenced above), global vineyard area has generally decreased since 2003, by about 7.5% (one-thirteenth). That is, we are actually trying to get there already! Indeed, some places are explicitly into it, calling it “sustainable vineyard removal and recycling” (Washington vineyards reduce acres, reuse and recycle).
Mind you, with the effects in the USA of the impending WHO dietary guidelines, which adopt a zero-tolerance alcohol policy, there may be even bigger problems ahead for the Americans (Wine industry braces for impact of trickle-down health recommendations).
Sadly, this sort of thing is apparently not being taken on board. As but one example, the Bordeaux data do not look good (Bordeaux 2023 — in the balance), Bordeaux has responded to this, not by reducing its vineyard area, but with: Bordeaux wines unveils striking new global campaign developed by its winemaking community. Elsewhere, the response is not much better (US wine industry fights back with new marketing campaigns).
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