Some countries are known in the wine world principally as exporters (eg. France, Spain, Italy, Portugal), while others are known principally as importers (eg. China, Japan, Netherlands, Sweden). There are some, however, who do a lot of both (eg. United States, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa). So, here I will look at the monetary value of wine imports versus exports specifically for the USA.
Let’s start with exports. Here is a graph showing the monetary value of wine exports from the USA over the past 30 years (the data are from the AAWE: Value of U.S. wine and beer exports, 1991–2021). As expected, the value has increased over that period of time. Indeed, the increase has been an average of 55 million USD per year, which is about 10% greater than the inflation-adjusted value over the same period of time. *
However, clearly the increase has not been steady, over at least part of that time. The increase does look pretty steady from 1994—2010, as I have indicated by my added straight line for that period (a linear regression, which accounts for 93% of the data variation). This was followed by a rapid increase in exports for 2 years, amounting to a 40% increase in value, after which things have remained pretty stable (or stagnant, if you are a pessimist). Interestingly, if we had used the 1994—2010 regression to forecast the situation in 2018—2019, we would have arrived at pretty much what actually happened in those two years — that is, the recent steady-state of exports has now completely nullified the rapid increase back in 2009—2011.
The increase in export value in 2010 has been noted before (Record high 2010 wine shipments make U.S. the world's largest wine-consuming nation):
In 2010, U.S. wine exports ... jumped 25.6% in value to an estimated $1.14 billion in winery revenues. Volume shipments rose 1.9% to 47.3 million nine-liter cases ... Changes in the dollar exchange rate, a gradually recovering economy and California's effective marketing and high wine quality have helped exports rebound.
Jon Moramarco provides a bit more detail: The period from 2009 to 2013 was driven by packaged wines as opposed to bulk wines. This was driven by an increase in average value per case, as opposed to significant volume growth. During this period, the USD was fairly weak, which made higher priced CA wines more competitive globally.
However, I am not sure how complete that explanation might be. Certainly, any optimism about the future was misplaced, as the exports simply stagnated for the next decade. Maybe the following scenario also played a part [thanks to Bob Henry for help here]:
In the robust economic times preceding the 2007 onset of the economic decline, vineyard owners / wineries optimistically planted more land, to meet rising wine sales demand. However, it took a few years for those new acres to yield a worthwhile crop; and those bountiful grapes then came to market during the 2008 Recession. Obviously, the public's appetite for “fine” wine then fell during The Great Recession; and, so wineries pivoted to selling into the export market to move all those new cases of unneeded wine.
Now let’s turn to imports. Here is a graph showing the monetary value of wine imports into the USA over the past 30 years (the data are from the AAWE: Value of U.S. wine imports, 1992–2021).
Here, also, there has been an increase in value through time, with an average increase of 210 million USD per year, which is about 25% greater than the inflation-adjusted value over the same period of time. * In this case, though, the increase has been steady over that whole time (as shown by my linear regression, which accounts for 98% of the data variation). However, wine imports took a bit of a hit in 2020; but they recovered to the regression-forecast value in 2021). [Note that the exports also took a bit of a hit in 2020.]
Importantly, wine imports have always greatly exceed exports. That is, the USA is massively a net wine importer, by value, not producing locally anything like the national consumption requirements for vinous beverages. However, the excess of wine import value over wine export value has changed through time. For example, back in the early 1990s, imports exceeded exports 6-fold, whereas in the early 2010s the excess was only 4-fold — it is currently closer to 5-fold.
This, of course, makes the United States one of the most-attractive consumer markets for wine producers worldwide. However, it has been reported that: foreign winemakers “have found it a frustrating and competitive market in which to enter and conduct business. The struggles are manifold, but, primarily, it’s a question of finding the right importer or distributor to help them navigate the system” (How to crack the U.S. import market). However, another issue seems to be the type of wines exported to the USA (Americanization or improvement? Tailoring wine for export). That is, should the local wines be adapted for the American market (eg. riper and richer wines, “international” grape varieties, use of new French oak)? This would be an unfortunate trend, should it become firmly established.
From the US perspective, it is reported that the wine industry has a greater impact on the national economy today than it did five years ago (What is wine's economic impact on the American economy?). With the increasing value of both imports and exports, things can only get better. It is reported that, for beer, spirits and wine, packaged imports grew 12% by value in the 12 months through August 2022, while packaged exports grow +20%, which is in line with the above data for wine. Apparently, The wine industry didn’t just weather the pandemic: it grew.
* Calculated based on the data provided in Historical inflation rates: 1914–2022. This amounts to an average inflation rate of 2.38% per year — since 2012, the U.S. Federal Reserve has targeted a 2% inflation rate for the US economy, and may intervene if inflation is not within that range.
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