Useful official advice on alcohol and your health (EU brochure)

I have recently produced a series of posts about wine availability and consumption in the Nordic countries, pointing out that it is not actually restricted, as is sometimes claimed. However, various parts of the government in, for example, Sweden do take alcohol consumption really quite seriously, healthwise. The World Health Organization (WHO) would be impressed.

As one example, my local municipal council (region Uppsala) has a web page about health, for locals. As part of this information they produce a brochure on alcohol use, which I think is very informative for everyone. Here, I have provided a translation from the original Swedish text. The original PDF file is available at: Alkohol och din hälsa.

The document is claimed to have been “compiled by specialists in the field of alcohol and health in the Uppsala Region and Uppsala Municipality”. It was last revised in January 2019, although it is still very current. You would be well advised to look through it, for your own edification.

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Region Uppsala

Alcohol and your health
How do you drink?

Alcohol affects health

Alcohol affects us in different ways. New studies show that no level of alcohol intake is completely risk-free. The risk of health problems increases the more you drink. How the body is affected by alcohol can vary. Even small amounts of alcohol can cause harm to children, adolescents, the elderly, and those with illness or medication. Alcohol should also be avoided during pregnancy, when caring for others, and before surgery.

Drinking alcohol often increases the risk of becoming addicted. Alcohol impairs judgment, thinking ability, and reaction ability. It can increase the risk of harming yourself or others in accidents. Being drunk always involves a risk.

Some examples where alcohol may be important:

• Sleep problems and headaches
• Depression and anxiety
• Reduced fertility
• Lowered immune system
• Poor wound healing
• Cardiovascular diseases
• Diabetes
• Psoriasis and skin problems
• Diseases and problems in the stomach, intestines and liver
• Cancer in the mouth and throat, gastrointestinal tract, breast and liver
• Dementia
• Brittle bones and gout
• In the event of accidents and relationship problems

Benefits of drinking less

You can have better general health and sleep. Your memory and ability to concentrate can improve and you can handle stress more easily. You also reduce your risk of developing various diseases.

Consider your own habits

• When do you drink beer, cider, wine or spirits?
• How often do you drink?
• How much do you drink at one time?
• How are you and others affected when you drink?
• What could you do if you wanted to drink less alcohol?

Risky alcohol use

Risky alcohol use involves drinking alcohol in a way that greatly increases the risk of physical, mental and social problems.

In Sweden, the term “standard glass” is commonly used to calculate how much you drink. A standard glass is the amount of drink that contains 12 grams of pure alcohol:

50 cl beer or cider (2.8–3.5%)
33 cl strong beer, strong cider or alcoholic soft drink (5%)
1 small glass (12 cl) wine (12.5%)
8 cl fortified wine (15–22%)
4 cl spirits, e.g. whiskey

A bottle of wine (75 cl) contains about 6 standard glasses.

Limits for hazardous alcohol consumption

Female: 4 standard drinks or more on the same occasion (for example, during an evening). 10 standard glasses per week (equivalent to just under 2 bottles of wine).

Male: 4 standard glasses or more on the same occasion (for example, during an evening). 10 standard glasses per week (equivalent to just under 2 bottles of wine).

Pregnant: For pregnant women, as well as children and young people, all use of alcohol is considered risky use.

Tips for those who want to drink less

• Write down how much alcohol you drink for a few weeks.
• Think about situations in which you can change your habits.
• Allow at least two days each week to be completely alcohol-free.
• Replace every other glass of alcoholic drink with water and thus halve the amount of alcohol you drink.
• Choose drinks without alcohol or with a lower alcohol content.

Did you know that …

• Alcohol contains a lot of calories, the higher the alcohol content, the more calories in the drink.
• One can of folk beer per day for a year is equivalent to approximately 19 full bottles of hard liquor.

How much do you drink?

Fill in how many standard glasses you drink per day during a week.

To compare different types of alcoholic beverages, use the standard glass measurement. For example, a standard glass is equivalent to:

Support for those who want to change their drinking habits

You can always turn to health care professionals for advice and support. There are prescription drugs that can reduce alcohol cravings. All health care clinics are confidential.

At the Alcohol Line there are counsellors who can provide information and support. Tel. 020-84 44 48 or info@alkohollinjen.se.

 

At alkoholhjalpen.se there are facts, tips and discussion forums. The services are free of charge and you can remain anonymous.

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Brochures like this are part of the increasing pressure on alcohol consumption, in the modern world (after all: Mid-strength wines may win where no-alcohol failed). Indeed, there is explicit pressure for wine labels to have health warnings, similar to those for tobacco packages. Indeed, recently: Alaska introduces cancer warnings to bars and liquor stores. Even the USA officially links alcohol and tobacco, as the United States Department of the Treasury has the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, and the United States Department of Justice has the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Sweden has not yet gone that far!

Long-term (mostly negative) trends in Nordic alcohol consumption

I have recently looked at current wine sales in some of the Nordic countries, with their government-owned alcohol retail monopolies (they are not big wine producers):

• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland

There is one final thing to look at, which is the long-term sales / consumption trends. This can be done using the data compiled by the Nordic Alcohol and Drug Policy Network (NordAN). To quote their website:

NordAN was established in September 2000 as a network of non-governmental, voluntary organisations that all worked to reduce the consumption of alcohol and other drugs, and who supported evidence-based alcohol and drug policy, and who did not receive contributions from the commercial alcohol industry.

They consider their work to be important because:

The Nordic [Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden] and Baltic [Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania] region has been an exciting laboratory for everyone interested in alcohol research and policy. With Nordic countries, we have a long and effective experience with WHO recommended alcohol policies, and with that one of the lowest alcohol consumption and harm rates in Europe.

So, I have reproduced here their graphs for the five Nordic countries, for total alcohol consumption not just wine, per capita. Unfortunately, they do not yet include the data for 2024, and for Iceland and Norway not even for 2023. Still, they do show the general trends since 2010.

Note, first, that the data for Denmark and Norway refer to sales, while the data for Finland, Iceland and Sweden refer to consumption, which is not necessarily quite the same thing.

Norway (in the first graph, above), shows a downward trend in sales from 2010 until 2015 (to 90% of the 2010 level), followed by a plateau until 2019, and a massive spike in 2020—2022, although the sales are now returning to the 2010 level. This peak coincides with the Covid-19 pandemic, of course, which spread rapidly from 2020. Presumably the Norwegians stayed at home a lot more, in a form of voluntary lock-down (cf. Bay Area drinking 42% more alcohol than usual while sheltering in coronavirus pandemic).

Denmark (in the second graph) shows a plateau in sales for most of the time, after a dip in 2012. There is then a spike in 2021, which may be related to that in the Norway data (July 2021 was the summer of the delta Covid variant). Note, also, that Denmark does not have a government-owned retail monopoly on alcohol sales, unlike the other Nordic countries. Apparently, Danish wine imports remained stable in 2024, although there was reportedly an increased concentration on wine producers from the EU (Italy, France and Spain accounted for 65% of Denmark’s total wine import volume, with Portugal and Germany making up another 25%).

Finland (in the third graph) shows a rapidly decreasing trend, so that 2023 is only 75% of the 2010 number. This cannot be good for the suppliers, although it refers to consumption not sales. However, this trend is definitely in line with current World Health Organisation policy (Recent science reports suggesting that wine alcohol is usually safe to drink), although compare with: The WHO is making a mistake about state-owned alcohol retailers.

Iceland (in the next graph) refutes these previous data by showing a rise (of 15%) in consumption from 2010 until 2015, followed by a plateau, with a spike in 2021. Note that the years 2015 and 2021 appear in several of these country patterns.

Sweden (in the fifth graph) has shown a very slow decline (of 15%) in consumption throughout most of the time. There is not much of a pandemic—related rise.

So, with the exception of Iceland, there is a general downward trend here, with apparent Covid-19 spikes to one extent or another. Indeed, as suggested by NordAN, with their relatively low alcohol sales / consumption, the Nordic countries can be worth looking at long-term. Other countries are also reporting drops, of course (eg. Ireland sees 4.5% drop in alcohol consumption), so that the global wine situation has been negative since 2017, as shown in the final graph (from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine, OIV). This is occurring because younger people are not drinking wine to the same extent as their forebears, worldwide (eg. The social role of alcohol is changing).

The relative consistency of each Nordic situation is certainly in distinct contrast to the situation elsewhere, especially in the USA (eg. Inside NYC’s wine retail apocalypse), where the multitude of retailer types yields a multitude of economic situations. Incidentally, The 7 happiest countries to live in apparently include: 1 Finland, 2 Denmark, 4 Iceland, 6 Norway, and 7 Sweden. Mind you, it has also been noted that the Top 10 most expensive countries to live in include: 2 Norway, 3 Iceland, and 5 Denmark. (NB: Iceland and Norway are not members of the European Union, but are members of the European Economic Area).

Finns do not like wine in their alcohol–retailer monopoly

I have recently reported that both Swedes (What countries are best represented in Sweden’s wine retailer monopoly?) and Norwegians (How well do wine-producing countries do in Norway’s wine retailer monopoly?) both actually do quite well, in terms of the availability of products in their respective alcohol–retailer monopolies. Here, I report that in some ways Finns do both better and worse.

The Finnish government-owned alcohol retailer is called Alko (= Alcohol). It was founded in 1932, and is the only company allowed to sell beverages with an alcohol content >8% in Finland. (NB. wine is typically 12%—14.5% ABV; regular beers are around 5—6% ABV, while stronger craft beers can have an ABV of 6—10%) There are 368 Alko stores and 143 order pick-up points, which is not too bad for a population 5.6 million people, with c. 80% 18 years or older.

So, first, note that normal retail shops can sell full-strength beers and light wines, unlike in Sweden or Norway (where they can sell only light beers). Second, note that there are somewhat more stores than in Norway, in spite of very similar population structures. So, the Finns do quite well, compared to other Nordic countries (I have not yet discussed Denmark in these posts).

The Alko web site indicates that the number of separate items is as shown in the first table. Note that the number is considerably less than in Norway (= 36,148), which is the obvious comparison. This is due, at least partly, to the fewer beers, as expected. However, all of the country numbers are considerably less, as well. Note that the USA does not do too well (see below). France does 50% better than Italy, which does 50% better than Spain.

The Alko web page has versions in Finnish, Swedish and English. The second one is due to the large number of alcohol-buying tourists, as there are daily tourist boats across the Baltic, from Stockholm to Helsinki.

The Alko web site says:
“Alko is a different kind of store. We are legally required to sell alcoholic beverages in a way that reduces the harmful effects of alcohol. Our role has remained the same since 1932 ... Alko's mission is to sell alcohol responsibly and to serve both our customers and Finland’s welfare society as best we can. Our extensive selection brings the whole world to our customers’ fingertips.”

If we take a look specifically at wine, then the Alko collection looks like the second table (click to enlarge). Note that each row simply lists the countries in decreasing order, stopping when it gets to the USA.

These numbers are terrible when compared to those for Norway, being about one quarter in all cases. Finns apparently are not much interested in vinous beverages. Perhaps they prefer low-alcohol versions, which are not necessarily in the Alko stores? Certainly, full-strength wine is not a major contributor to the Finnish economy (unlike its position in the USA: Wine is a major American economic engine).

Anyway, Finland supplies 1,131 alcohol products in the stores, which include: 496 distilled (44%), 340 beer (30%), 100 mixed drinks (9%), 91 fortified (8%), and 34 cider (3%). The large number of distilled beverages include: 166 Liqueur & Bitters, 161 Gin & Other Spirits, 127 Vodka & Spirits, 35 Whisky, and 7 Rum. Also, the 375 USA products include: 175 Red wine (47%), 78 distilled (21%), 70 white wine (19%), and 39 beer (10%).

So, in terms of wine availability, the Finns do not appear to do as well as either the Norwegians or the Swedes, in spite of all three having their government officially owning the alcohol retailer. Iceland also has a government-owned alcohol retailer, Vínbúðin (= The Wine Shop), which is apparently quite strict (Do strict alcohol policies really work?). The remaining Nordic country, Denmark, does not even have an alcohol monopoly system (see: Danish wine imports remained stable in 2024). Interestingly, Greenland and the Faroe Islands, which are self-governing entities within the state of Denmark, do have such retail monopolies.

Finally, it is worth noting that: The Finnish retail alcohol market is being liberalised. Having a government-owned retail store is contrary to official European Union policy, and Finland is finally starting to follow this guideline (it joined the EU in 1995). Sweden was granted an exception for Systembolaget (when it also joined in 1995), but has not yet made any moves to change this. Indeed, the changed Finnish law is creating international tension (How easing of monopoly laws could shift Nordic alcohol markets).

In contrast to this, there is also this sort of attitude: WHO/Europe highlights Nordic alcohol monopolies as a comprehensive model for reducing alcohol consumption and harm. Alcohol consumption is recorded as being lower in the Nordic countries, and this is sometimes attributed to the psychological effect of the government monopoly ownership. This is, indeed, one possible part of Nordic societal attitudes.

One other thing that you may not know about Finland:

• Finland was the first nation in the world to give all adult citizens full suffrage, in other words the right to vote and to run for office, in 1906. Previously, all countries had given this right only to males (and sometimes not even then!).

How well do wine-producing countries do in Norway’s wine retailer monopoly?

I have recently produced a series of posts about wine availability in Sweden, pointing out that it is not actually restricted, as is sometimes claimed (The availability of older wine vintages in a wine monopoly; The broad availability of United States wine in Sweden’s wine retailer; What countries are best represented in Sweden’s wine retailer monopoly?).

Well, it turns out that Norwegians also do quite well when they purchase wines. Their government-owned alcohol retailer is called Vinmonopolet (= The Wine Monopoly). It was founded in 1922, and is the only company allowed to sell beverages with an alcohol content >4.75% in Norway (NB. wine is typically 12%—14.5% ABV; regular beers are around 5—6% ABV, while stronger craft beers can have an ABV of 6—10%). There are 331 Vinmonopolet locations, which is not too bad for a population 5.6 million people, with 4.5 million (80%) 18 years or older.

Their web site indicates that the number of separate items is as shown in the first table. Note that the USA does not do too badly, although this may change any time soon. France does twice as well as Italy, which does twice as well as Germany. It is worth noting at this point that Norway is not part of the European Union.

Their web site says:
“The primary goal of Vinmonopolet is to responsibly perform the distribution of alcoholic goods while limiting the motive of private economic profit from the alcohol industry. Equally significant is the social responsibility of Vinmonopolet, to prevent the sale of alcohol to minors and visibly inebriated customers.”

If we take a look specifically at wine, then the Vinmonopolet collection looks like the second table (click to enlarge). Note that each row simply lists the countries in decreasing order, stopping when it gets to the USA. Note also: Sparkling wine = atmospheric pressure of 5—6 atmospheres, while Bubbly wine = 1—2.5 atmospheres. Strong wine = fortified wine.

Clearly, red wine is preferred to white, and sparkling to rosé. The USA also has 260 beers, and 124 distilled spirits. Norway itself has 909 beers, 774 distilled spirits, 247 ciders, and 117 meads.

So, all in all, the Norwegians do just as well as the Swedes, in terms of wine availability, in spite of their government officially owning the retailer.

Other things that you may not know about Norway include (see also: 25 fascinating facts about Norway, and 14 Misconceptions tourists have when coming to Norway):

• The Nobel Peace Prize is awarded in Oslo (the other prizes are in Stockholm, Sweden, since Alfred Nobel was a Swede) — this caused a sensation at the time of Nobel’s will, because Sweden and Norway formed a union at the time (1901), but Norway was arguing for independence (which it got in 1905)
• there is a small village called Hell (many tourists may be spotted snapping a photo of themselves in front of the station sign)
• skiing both modern (the Telemark ski) and ancient (4,000 year old rock carving) were invented in Norway
• the cheese slicer was invented in Norway, way back in 1925
• there are two versions of the Norwegian language — Bokmål is used by the vast majority of the country, while Nynorsk is more popular in rural areas.

What countries are best represented in Sweden’s wine retailer monopoly?

I have recently produced a couple of posts about wine availability in Sweden, pointing out that it is not actually restricted, as is sometimes claimed (The availability of older wine vintages in a wine monopoly; The broad availability of United States wine in Sweden’s wine retailer). This is in spite of the fact that the government owns the alcohol retail chain.

The point here is that government regulation of alcohol consumption is widely practiced around the world, including ownership of the alcohol-retail chain. For example, the history of Prohibition in the U.S.A. is intimately concerned with this topic. In that case, after ceasing the ban on alcohol retail of any sort, there were several subsequent suggestions of government control of alcohol sales, leading to the adoption of the current Three-tier System (A brief history of the three-tier system in America), in which distribution and retail must be carried out by separate companies.

Well, in Sweden’s case, there is an import/production group of companies, which is not hindered by the government, while the government formally owns the retail company (Systembolaget = The System Company). However, it seems to offer no impedance to how this company carries out its activities, in practice. This is all to the good for the (adult) populace, including me.

Import of wine is important in Sweden, because there are not a lot of local vineyards and wineries (Swedish wineries — who'd have thought it?). So, it is of interest to ask where most of the wines available in the shops do actually come from. That is what I have shown in this graph, based on the Systembolaget database, showing the number of individual wines (not their total volume), irrespective of vintage or bottle size. It shows 92.6% of the total of 16,386 available wines.

It can come as no surprise to any of you that the top three sources are the three biggest wine-producing countries in Europe, given that Sweden is part of the 27-nation European Union. So France (28.7% of the wines), Italy (25.0%) and Spain (11.6%) supply 65% of the Systembolaget wines between them. Perhaps slightly more surprising is that Germany (4.4%) and Portugal (3.5%) do not fare so well.

South Africa (4.5%) and the USA (4.0%) surprisingly do better than Australia (2.6%), which slightly bests Austria (2.4%). Given the current political ruckus, the US contribution may soon decrease, of course. South America also does not do so well (Chile 1.5%; Argentina 1.3%).

What I have left out of the graph is the contribution of both Sweden (2.2%) and Japan (0.6%). This is because they do not contribute much in the way of Vitis vinifera wines. Sweden does contribute 367 wines: 91 whites, 30 sparkling, 23 rosé, and 21 reds; but it also contributes 95 fruit wines, and 75 glögg (mulled wines). Japan contributes 94 wines, including 66 sake, and 22 fruit wines.

Anyway, this is enough for the current series of blog posts about wine retail in Sweden. However, things are likely to change at any time. For example, Georgia is currently a candidate country for joining the European Union, having applied for membership in March 2022 and officially been granted candidate status in December 2023. They seem to be keen to get their wines onto shelves around Europe (eg. Georgia backs UK growth with upped investment), presumably including Sweden.

The broad availability of United States wine in Sweden’s wine retailer

Recently I produced a post about wine availability in Sweden, pointing out that wine sales are not actually as restricted as is sometimes claimed: The availability of older wine vintages in a wine monopoly. There I noted that some of the currently available vintages in Sweden’s wine monopoly (called Systembolaget) date back to last century. Another way to look at the same issue, which may be of interest to many of my readers, is to consider the extent to which United States wine is available in that same wine monopoly. *

The obvious place to start is with simply how many different wines are currently listed in the Systembolaget catalog. It looks like this first figure.

Well, 672 wines is not necessarily a big deal to an American, but for a small European country it is pretty darned good. As expected, California (= “Kalifornien” in Swedish] dominates, with more than 80% of the wines, but Washington and Oregon also get a look in.

There are 471 red wines, 176 white wines, 12 rosé, 5 sparkling, 6 flavored / fruit wines, and 2 are mixed boxes. Of these wines, 112 are in the standard store assortment (ie. they should be in most stores, and their local supply is renewed), 197 are in the temporary assortment (ie. their supply is limited, and is not necessarily renewed), and 360 need to be ordered (ie. they are not in the shops, but will be delivered to your local store upon request to the importer).

Of these wines, 526 are in standard glass bottles, 88 are in lighter bottles, 28 are boxed wines (with plastic tap), 13 are in PET bottles, 11 are in cans, 5 are in cardboard packaging, and 1 is in a pouch. If you want even more details: 59 of the bottles have a screw cap, and 4 have a synthetic cork.

The wines are mostly relatively recent vintages, as shown in the next figure, but they do go back to 2009. The alcohol content is stated to vary from 7% to 19%.

In US dollars, the wines vary from $3.50 (187 ml) to $4.60 (250 ml) to $5.90 (375 ml) to $7.90 (750 ml), all the way up to $10,000. There are 180 wines (27%) retailing at $20 or less. The six most expensive packages are as shown next (NB: $US1 = 10 kronor). Note that the first item refers to a mixed box of 3 bottles (ie. $4,000 each bottle).

There are many different grape varieties available, as listed in the next figure. (Note that some of the names are actually synonyms).

If we consider what foods the wines are claimed to be suitable to accompany, then the list looks like the following figure. Note that Nut (“nöt” in Swedish) = Beef.

Finally, getting technical, if we define Lower carbon footprint as 0—400 g CO2e/l (carbon dioxide equivalents per liter) then 55 wines are stated to qualify; and we define Average carbon footprint as 401—650 g CO2e/l then 102 wines are stated to qualify; and Higher carbon footprint is 651—1475 g CO2e/l then 511 wines are stated to qualify.

So, all in all, I think that the Swedes do quite well in terms of wine from the United States of America. How long this lasts will be determined by how the current tariff ruckus is resolved, of course.

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* The U.S. three-tier system was originally designed to prevent monopolies, indicating that Americans do indeed object to this business arrangement.

Issues when aggregating wine scores into an average

Wine competitions, and many web sites, involve summing assessors’ scores into a consensus “average” score for each wine. However, as an example for three assessors, the scores of:

5,5,5 have the same sum / average as 0,5,10

However, the former situation indicates complete agreement among the three assessors about the quality of the wine, while the latter situation is no different from random quality scores. Surely this difference matters?

This contradictory situation has long been ignored. Obviously, this issue does not matter when looking at a single critic’s review in a magazine, for example. However, it may matter enormously at sites like CellarTracker, which claim to represent the consensus of wine quality among many people. However, such sites seem not to have cared about this issue at all.

Recently, Jeffrey Bodington has looked at this situation in detail:

Wine Stars & Bars: the combinatorics of critic consensus
AAWE Working Paper no. 284

Here, I will summarize some of his ideas.

First, however, let’s make the situation clear. The following lines indicate increasing agreement around the same average of 5, with 3 assessor scores having a maximum of 10 each:

0,5,10
1,5,9
2,5,8
3,5,7
4,5,6
5,5,5

Furthermore, there can also be clusters of scores (e.g. some scores indicating poor quality and some indicating good quality, with nothing in between), such as:

1,7,7
3,6,6

The basic mathematical issues here are that (potentially) many billions of combinations of scores have the same sum (and therefore average), and that uncertain ratings can have many different sums. Mathematically, an observed wine rating is one draw from a (latent) distribution of all possible ratings that is both wine-specific and judge-specific.

The further practical issues for wine assessments are that: (i) sample sizes (number of assessments) are often small (especially in competitions); (ii) some wine judges are more reliable or consistent assessors than are others; and (iii) clusters of scores can happen, for example in the case of stylistically distinctive wines. These three situations mean that the issue discussed by Bodington can potentially have a big effect.

Bodington proceeds mathematically:

A weighted sum of judges’ wine ratings is proposed and tested that (1) recognizes the uncertainty about a sum and (2) minimizes the disagreement among judges about that sum. A simple index of dispersion is [also] proposed and tested that measures a continuum from perfect consensus (dispersion = 1), to ratings that are indistinguishable from random assignments (dispersion = 0), and then to distant clusters of ratings when groups of judges disagree (dispersion is negative).

To make sense of this for you, he then illustrates his ideas with a straightforward example. This involves the 10 white wines from the 1976 Judgment of Paris comparative tasting of French and American wines, with 9 assessors per wine. The sums of the blind scores are shown in the graph above. The blue bars indicate the distribution of all possible sums of 9 scores of 20 each (ie. a minimum of 0 and a maximum of 180). The black lines represent the sums for each of the 10 Judgment wines (as labeled). As shown:

... the sums of points for the top two white wines, Chateau Montelena and Meursault Charmes are calculated to be the same at 130.5. The respective ranges of points assigned to those two wines were 3.0-to-18.5 and 12.0-to-16.0 ...

So, the overall mathematical assessment is the same for the two wines, but there is clearly much more consensus among the judges for Meursault Charmes (scores 12-to-16 out of 20) than for Chateau Montelena (scores 3-to-18.5). Bodington thinks that this difference should be dealt with, and that is the purpose of his weighted sum and his index of dispersion.

These calculations are shown in the next figure, with the weighted sum shown horizontally (ie. increasing assessed quality of the wine) and the index of dispersion vertically (ie. increasing agreement among the assessors), and each wine represented by a labeled point.

Bodington notes:

Results for the dispersion index show that none are close to zero so they do not appear to be random results, and none are negative to indicate distant clusters. The weighted sum of points for highest-scoring Chateau Montelena has the second lowest dispersion index of any wine and the [other] wine Meursault Charmes has the highest index of any wine. Considering that finding, does it make sense to conclude that Montelena was better than Charmes?

In other words, the consistent critic judgements for Meursault Charmes should outweigh the relatively inconsistent ones for Chateau Montelena. This can be interpreted as indicating the “best” white wine at the Judgment of Paris.

This sort of situation can have a strong effect any time there is a relatively small number of wine assessments.

The availability of older wine vintages in a wine monopoly

Sweden has a single government-owned (but not controlled) alcohol retail monopoly, called Systembolaget (although Swedes often refer to it as Systemet = The System). Many non-Swedes see this as an affront to free trade, and that it obviously must be economically inefficient (e.g. “high taxes are also an issue in the Nordics, where sales are stifled by everything having to be sold through monopolies”).

I have written about this situation quite a number of times, pointing out that the situation is not really the way it is painted by outsiders (ie. sales are not stifled). For example:

• Which countries are dominated by only a few alcohol suppliers?
• Why are there wine monopolies in Scandinavia?
• The WHO is making a mistake about state-owned alcohol retailers

I have also written about the availability of wine under these circumstances, as many people seem to think that it must be restricted in some way, which it is not:

• Wine monopolies, and the availability of wine
• The availability of wines in government-owned retail monopolies
• The availability of older wine vintages in Sweden?

It is the topic of this latter post, about older vintages, that is of interest here. In that post, from 2024, I listed all of the available Australian wines at least 5 years since vintage, available in Systembolaget. There were 24 of them, vintage dated 2013–2018. This seems to me is not too bad a selection, from a single source country, and all of the wines should still be quite drinkable. However, people used to specialist wine shops might find that this selection is nothing to write home about, especially in countries like the USA, where specialty retail is expected.

Today I am going to look at all of the available wines vintage–dated prior to 2000 (ie. last century), irrespective of their country of origin.

The table below shows the results of my searching in the Systembolaget database. These are all table wines, not fortified wines (which can be much older, as their higher alcohol content preserves them). I have shown the Swedish (SEK) price for each wine. Note that US$ 1 ≈ 10 SEK, which makes the conversion easy.

So, there are 7 red wines and 6 whites. This may not impress connoisseurs; but for the Swedish national retail chain, where almost all of the alcohol sold is budget stuff for everyday drinking (the classic “wines for the table not the cellar”), it is as good as I would expect.

All of these wines should still be quite drinkable.

For example, the four Moulin Touchais wines come from a winery that specializes in a semi-sweet wine of great age; so many other old vintages have been available as well (see: Tasting the magical sweet wines of Moulin Touchais through the ages).

Similarly, the current release of the Xavier Vignon wine was not bottled until 2022, and it is widely available elsewhere (Wine-Searcher).

Also, although the company no longer exists, Richmond Grove long specialized in limited releases of its Watervale Riesling (e.g. in 2012 Chris Shanahan noted that the winery offered Watervale Rieslings from 1996 to 2011).

The Luis Pato wine was tasted in 2023 / 2024 by Wine Anorak, and given a score of 95/100.

A perusal of the Wine-Searcher database shows that the Giacomo Borgogno wine is widely available elsewhere. All of the other wines are also still available elsewhere (e.g. Bodegas Campillo, Fontanafredda, Jean Leon, Mastroberardino, Vajo dei Masi).

These wines are rarely actually in any of the Systembolaget retail stores, but are still in the importer / distributor warehouse. They can be ordered through the Systembolaget online order system, and arrive a few days later at my local store, where I collect (and pay for) them. This system works quite well.

Recent patterns in world vineyard area, wine production and wine consumption

The International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) recently released its annual world industry summary: State of the World Vine and Wine Sector in 2024. There are always parts of it that seem of particular interest, and I will look at three of these here.

Let’s start with recent changes in the world’s vineyard surface area, which are shown in the first graph (taken from the report).

As you can see, this has been decreasing for quite some time, from a high in 2003. It is currently c. 90% of its recent high. (Note that the OIV graphs never have zero as their bottom axis, which looks somewhat misleading to me.) As has been repeatedly noted in the wine-industry literature, vineyard area is much larger than can be supported by the current wine consumption, and so the decrease in area will presumably continue for quite some time yet.

Obviously, wine production is related to vineyard surface area. However, production has not shown a similar continuous decline, as illustrated in the next graph (taken from the report).

The graph shows that, since 2003, global wine production has varied up and down around an average of c. 270 mhl (million hectoliters). This sounds like a classic case of over-production (the same amount of wine coming from a decreasing area). This has lead to a dramatic decrease in production over the past couple of years, so that 2024 production was only c. 75% of the 2018 peak (and that peak was the same as for 2003).

Note also that the 2022 production was c. 90% of the 2003 high, as would be expected from the decreasing vineyard surface area; so, we need to look for another cause of the decline since 2022. The most obvious place to look for this would be wine consumption, as illustrated in the next graph (taken from the report).

This shows that the recent high-point for consumption was during the decade from 2007 to 2017, when it varied around 245 mhl (million hectoliters). Since then, it has been all downhill, so that the 2024 level was c. 90% of the 2017 high.

More importantly, there has been a dramatic decrease in consumption since 2021. So, the decrease by the producers has clearly been a response to the behaviour of the consumers. Notably, it has been reported that global wine consumption is back to 1961 levels, which should be a wake-up call for the industry.

We can also consider which countries have been contributing to these patterns. Here, 51% of the world vineyard area lies in just five countries: Spain, France, China, Italy and Turkey (in decreasing order). So, these are the ones that will be most affected by the decline in the wine industry.

The pattern for production as reported by the OIV excludes juices and musts, and so wine production does not follow the vineyard area pattern. Here, 58% of the world wine production comes from just four countries: Italy, France, Spain and the USA (in decreasing order).

Wine consumption, on the other hand, is somewhat different. Here, 51% of wine consumption occurs in five countries: the USA, France, Italy, Germany and the United Kingdom. This pattern is obviously related to population size. However, France and Italy do produce a lot of wine because their people drink a lot of it. The same cannot be said of the USA, Germany and the UK, which need to import a lot of the stuff.

This importation fact is currently riling the President of the USA, who wants to tax the imported booze even more than it has been in the past (How American alcohol importers are adapting to the tariff rollercoaster). Indeed, in the above graph we can look at US wine consumption over the past century or so (from: the Wine Institute). There was a notable dip during the second half of the 1980s, but otherwise it has continued upwards until 2022 (and 2023 also continued downwards — not shown).

Apparently, the President’s idea is that the USA can produce all of its own wine needs. This seems unlikely, given recent patterns in grape crush in California, as shown in the next graph (from: Lightest crop in 20 years). The issue here is whether the crush should be increased or decreased for the good of the California wine business (How bad is wine’s oversupply problem?).

On a different note, China is an interesting part of the global wine industry, and potentially an important one given its population size (2025: 17% of the world total). Here, both production and consumption have decreased from a peak in c. 2012–2013, as shown in the next graph (from: What’s happened to the wine market in China?).

Indeed, China’s share of world wine production by volume was 5.5% in 2012 but was 0.8% in 2022; and its share of world wine consumption was 7.5% in 2012 but was 2.4% in 2022. These are pretty serious drops, which the wine industry needs to take note of. Moreover, wine’s share of China’s alcohol consumption was 4.6% in 2012 but was only 1.5% in 2022 (grain-based drinks dominate, including beer).

Clearly, the wine industry will need to look to other populous countries, like India (Which wine regions are finding success in India, and why?). The USA apparently need not look anywhere, just at the moment (How America ruined its enviable position in global drinks culture).

So, there you have it. Things are on the downward path in the world wine industry. This is not news to you, but now I have put some numbers on it.

The most valuable wine brands over recent years

Things are a bit unsettled in the global wine world at the moment, for reasons of which you are presumably well aware. Instead of dealing with that, I thought that it might be more interesting to look at the value of the world’s most valuable wine companies / brands over the past few years. Some are up, some are down, and some are holding ground. Which are which?

The most recent data for wine brands come from Brand Finance for 2024. This company claims to have “the world’s largest database of brand valuations, with over 5,000 new valuations each year, supported by our own original consumer equity research.”

You can peruse a list of the wine data at VinePair for: The world’s 10 most valuable wine and champagne brands (2024). Given that title, it should surprise no-one that the four most valuable brands for 2024 are all from Champagne: Moët & Chandon, Chandon, Veuve Clicquot, and Dom Pérignon. Note that this refers only to individual brands, not to the conglomerates that own many of them (eg. Constellation, Pernod Ricard).

For our purposes here, though, we want to compare these 2024 data to the data for 2023. This I have done in the first graph. Each company is represented by a labeled dot — its value in 2023 is shown horizontally (in millions of $) and its value in 2024 vertically.

Clearly, the same four Champagne brands were at or near the top of the 2023 list as well. This should surprise no-one either, I guess, because France, as it often does with wine, leads the way.

More interestingly, there are only two large changes in value between the two years: Changyu has dropped significantly (second place to fifth place), and Yellow Tail has risen significantly (ninth place to seventh place).

Changyu is China’s century-old wine legend. Its drop in value has been noted in the media (Changyu brand value plummets 33% in a year):

This decline is likely due to the increasing competition from both domestic and international wine brands entering the Chinese market, which has put pressure on Changyu’s market position. Combined with weak financial performance over the past year, these factors have led to a decrease in Changyu’s brand value.

Yellow Tail, on the other hand, has become an Australian legend, developed by Casella Wines. The rapid worldwide success of this brand has been listed as a classic case study of what is referred to as a Blue Ocean Strategy. Blue Oceans are uncontested marketplaces; and it is claimed that the Casella brothers deliberately set out to make their own blue ocean: a fun and non-traditional wine that is easy to drink for everyone (Creating value on the vine). Indeed, it has subsequently been noted that retailers should: Range wines by colour rather than country of origin, which is another example of a consumer-friendly approach to wine retail. (That is, these days consumers think about wine from a style perspective.)

We should also look at the most valuable wine brands over several years. We can look at the 2021—2024 data in the second graph. We should note that Penfolds, Yellow Tail and Jacob’s Creek do not appear in the Top 10 for 2021 (Barefoot, Martini, and Concha y Toro appear, instead). Also, Beringer does not appear in the Top 10 for 2022 — its value for 2021 (not shown in the graph) was $300 million.

Note the rapid rise for Penfolds in 2023, and for Yellow Tail in 2024. Lindeman’s has had an erratic performance, up and down, as has Changyu. The wine industry is not always a static place to be, although the other six brands have been fairly steady through time.

Part of the problem here, of course, is global wine production (Champagne sales are slumping):

According to the latest macro analysis from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), an intergovernmental body providing guidance to the wine and grape-growing industry, overall global wine production is now at its lowest point since the turn of the millennium ... the overarching trend for the past 25 years is a clear line sloping downward. Perhaps more menacingly, global wine consumption itself has reached its lowest point since 1996, according to OIV estimates.

In concluding on a happier note, I should remind you that the commercial value of a brand is not its only value. For example, the first large winery complex that I ever visited, in my late teens, was Seppeltsfield, established in the Barossa Valley (South Australia) in 1851 by the Seppelt family. What is equally notable is that the wine my wife and I had with our barbecue the other day was Seppeltsfield Shiraz 2019 (and very nice it was, too). Now that (nearly 5 decades) is continuous value for you!

How long does alcohol stay in your system?

 I noted in my previous post (More medical results suggesting that wines are usually safe to drink) that it is often difficult for drinkers to estimate their own intake. This is because even Small changes in wine alcohols can make a big difference. I presented a table showing the blood alcohol concentration for an average 130-pound woman who consumes two 5-ounce glasses of wine over 1.5 hours. It looked like this:

Alcohol     Blood alcohol
content     concentration
  12%          0.065%
  13%          0.073%
  14%          0.081%
  15%          0.088%

So, let’s look at how it gets like this. Alcohol enters your stomach as its first stop. Here, if you produce enzymes known as alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH) then these break down some of the alcohol, thus preventing it from entering your bloodstream. Sadly, studies have shown that women tend to have lower levels of ADH than men; and people who drink regularly have lower ADH levels than people who rarely or never drink (Cleveland Clinic).

From the stomach the alcohol goes into the small intestine, where it is transferred to your bloodstream. This is when you notice it. The liver then picks up the alcohol from the blood, and starts to convert it to acetaldehhyde and then acetate, using ADH, ALDH, cytochrome P450 (CYP2E1) and catalase (Overview: how is alcohol metabolized by the body?) — see the diagram if you want the details. About 90% is processed by the liver, with the rest coming out via your kidneys (to your urine), lungs (to the air) and skin.

Alcohol typically stays in your system for about 1 hour per standard drink consumed. One standard drink is about 14 grams of ethanol (ie. alcohol), the amount found in (Cleveland Clinic):

• 12 ounces of regular beer with 5% ethanol (about one can of beer)
• 5 ounces of wine with 12% ethanol (about one glass of wine)
• 1.5 ounces of distilled spirits (80 proof) with 40% ethanol (about one shot).

Alcohol takes around 60—90 minutes to reach peak levels in your blood, before the body begins breaking it down. The half-life of alcohol (how long it takes for your body to get rid of half of it) is 4—5 hours. However, you need about 5 half-lives to get rid of alcohol completely — so, it takes about 25 hours for your body to get clear all of the alcohol.

Furthermore, alcohol can be detected:

• in blood for 6 to 12 hours,
• in breath and saliva for 12 to 24 hours,
• in urine for 12 to 24 hours (ethanol test), but up to 80 (EtG test) to 130 hours (5.5 days), and
• in hair for up to 90 days.

There is even a biomarker called Phosphatidylethanol (PEth) that reflects alcohol intake, and can be detected in urine up to 14 days.

The exact duration of alcohol detection varies based on characteristics of your body like:

• body weight — the less you weigh then the less water you have in your body; and since alcohol goes into the water in your blood, if you have less water then your blood alcohol concentration (BAC) will be higher,
• metabolism — some health conditions can make it harder for your body to process alcohol,
• medications — prescription medicines and over-the-counter medications can have interactions with alcohol,
• age — the speed of alcohol processing slows down as we get older,
• gender — women take longer to process alcohol than men (see above),
• your ancestry — we all have different genes, which may have an effect on alcohol processing, and
• the amount of alcohol consumed.

It is usually better to consume alcohol with food. However, food changes how your body processes alcohol but not how fast it can do it (Cleveland Clinic). Food makes the alcohol hang on in the stomach for a while, and your stomach then gets time to break down some of the alcohol before it moves into the small intestine, and thus into the bloodstream.

Caffeine is sometimes recommended, as it is a stimulant, which can perk you up and make you feel less intoxicated (Cleveland Clinic). However, you can then lose track of how much you’ve had to drink; and the caffeine won’t clear the alcohol from your system any faster.

It is also important to consider the effect on your brain of drinking too much. Moderate drinkers have been seen as those who have seven or fewer drinks per week, while heavy drinkers have had eight or more drinks per week. The latter can have problems (Eight or more drinks per week linked to signs of injury in the brain).

As a final aside, there is also a thing known as “auto brewery syndrome” (Man with rare condition that turns carbs into alcohol in his stomach). Here, your body turns sugary and starchy foods (ie. carbohydrates) into alcohol in your stomach, via endogenous ethanol fermentation (a.k.a. gut fermentation syndrome). So, people with this condition can get drunk simply by eating a slice of cake. This syndrome has appeared in TV episodes of both Chicago Med and Doc Martin.

More medical results suggesting that wines are usually safe to drink

People seem to be becoming more mindful of their alcohol intake for health reasons. However, I have recently noted medical evidence that wine is usually safe to drink with regard to both cancer and heart disease, which are currently the two major causes of death in the Western world.

There are, however, many other health issues that we may encounter, and it is interesting to check out whether wine is troublesome there, as well. Indeed, commentators other than WHO (who have focused on cancer) have emphasized some of these alternative medical issues. Here, I will look at these other issues, noting that they are not necessarily a big deal, either.

At first, however, I will note that Risky drinkers underestimate their own alcohol consumption. Indeed, it is often difficult even for non-risky drinkers to estimate their own intake. This is because even Small changes in wine alcohols can make a big difference. The table below shows the blood alcohol concentration for an average 130-pound woman who consumes two 5-ounce glasses of wine over 1.5 hours. When I was a teenager in Australia, the slogan was “under .05 or under arrest”, as far as driving a car was concerned.

Alcohol     Blood alcohol
content     concentration
  12%          0.065%
  13%          0.073%
  14%          0.081%
  15%          0.088%

So, now being mindful of the volume of alcohol intake, we might start by looking at what is called All-Cause Mortality. In this regard, we can consider Is drinking wine in moderation good for health or not? We can quote from this science report:

Drinking alcoholic beverages is associated with various health effects in the population ... All these effects seem primarily to be associated with the amount of alcohol consumed; the role of the different alcoholic beverages, and of their minor components, in this regard is in fact not clearly defined ... the association with all-cause mortality is complex, and J-shaped, with a consumption window theoretically associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality, up to 25 g alcohol per day. However, this issue is the subject of intense scientific debate.

So, that does not really help us in much of a practical way. So, let's move on, in particular, to red wine itself. Here, we get information directly from medical experiments: Health effects of red wine consumption: a narrative review of an issue that still deserves debate. To quote from this comprehensive review of the recent medical literature (in 2023):

This review evaluated randomised controlled trials (RCTs), examining the recent literature on the correlations between acute and chronic RW [red wine] consumption and health. All RCTs published in English on PubMed from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2023 were evaluated. Ninety-one RCTs were included in this review, seven of which had a duration of more than six months. We assessed the effect of RW on: (1) antioxidant status, (2) cardiovascular function, (3) coagulation pathway and platelet function, (4) endothelial function and arterial stiffness, (5) hypertension, (6) immune function and inflammation status, (7) lipid profile and homocysteine levels, (8) body composition, type 2 diabetes and glucose metabolism, and (9) gut microbiota and the gastrointestinal tract. RW consumption mostly results in improvements in antioxidant status, thrombosis and inflammation markers, lipid profile, and gut microbiota, with conflicting results on hypertension and cardiac function. Notably, beneficial effects were observed on oxidative stress, inflammation, and nephropathy markers, with a modest decrease in CVD [cardio-vascular disease] risk in five out of seven studies that evaluated the effect of RW consumption.

So, that sounds very promising. Diet is also of importance (Research shows wine enhances the impact of the Mediterranean diet):

This year [2024], for the seventh year running, the Mediterranean diet was ranked the healthiest in the world by US News & World Report ... Professor Ramon Estruch: “but if you put moderate drinking, especially wine, under the umbrella of the Mediterranean diet, the health effect is much higher. And if you practise exercise and so on, the effect is much better. But I think that the highest power of these is diet.” Indeed, the importance of diet has been emphasized elsewhere. For example, when studying Alcohol consumption patterns and mortality among older adults with health-related or socioeconomic risk factors, it was noted that: “Wine preference and drinking only with meals were associated with attenuating the excess mortality associated with alcohol consumption.”

Furthermore, red wine with the food can lower blood sugar faster, especially in combination with Mediterranean food (Vin, snus och ingen frukost? Här är professorns råd som vänder upp och ner på hälsomyterna [in Swedish]).

Regarding diet and sugar, diabetes itself is often of concern. However, it has been noted in a recent experiment (Alcohol intake, drinking pattern, and risk of Type 2 Diabetes in three prospective cohorts of U.S. women and men) that: “Light to moderate alcohol consumption, especially regular light drinking, was associated with a lower risk of Type 2 Diabetes in both men and women.” A much earlier (2009) summary of this pattern is illustrated in the graph above, with females at the top and males below (Alcohol as a risk factor for Type 2 Diabetes).

If you want to read another summary of potential issues then The Drinks Business (The scientific studies showing the health benefits of wine) has this overview:

Here, we look back through the years at the drinks business, and provide a comprehensive overview of the health benefits associated with wine from scientific studies that we have covered in the past several decades.

As I have noted before: There are NO scientific experiments saying: don’t drink alcohol. Much of the current “scientific” anti-alcohol noise comes from Tim Stockwell, as I explicitly discussed in that post, and his associated new-Prohibitionist organization Movendi International (aka the International Organisation of Good Templars). Felicity Carter provides an alternative perspective on this issue (The rise of anti-alcohol messaging and ‘neo-prohibitionism’). In the meantime, stick to wine (as opposed to other alcohols) and science says that you will be quite well off.