Recent trends in declining US wine consumption

We have all read warnings about declining wine consumption over recent years, especially in the USA. There are a few things about this situation that are worth summarizing here, based on recent reports from the national Gallup survey organization’s Latest Insights into alcohol consumption (eg. U.S. drinking rate at new low as alcohol concerns surge).

First, let us make it clear what we mean by declining alcohol consumption. Gallup summarizes U.S. alcohol usage since 1939 as in this first graph. Note that it is clear that usage was fairly consistent from roughly 1980 through to 2020, but that it has decreased notably over the past half-decade.

We can now take a look at which parts of the previously drinking population are estimated to have recently stopped drinking (between 2023 and 2025). This table summarizes my calculations from the Gallup data.

Recent trend in percentages of U.S. adults who report they drink alcohol, by subgroup

All U.S. adults	12.9
Gender
Men	8.0
Women	17.1
Race/Ethnicity
White adults	17.9
People of color	3.7
Age
18 to 34	15.3
35 to 54	15.2
55 and older	8.2
Annual household income
less than 40.000	25.9
40.000—99.999	6.9
100.000 or more	16.5
Party ID
Republicans	29.2
Independents	9.8
Democrats	4.7

You may make of these numbers what you will, especially with regard to White, Female, Poor, Republicans. It is clear that only a subset of adults have decreased their alcohol consumption, but it is not a small subset.

The often-given reason for these declines has to do with changing perception, over the past decade, of the health effects of alcohol. This situation is summarized in this next graph, also from Gallup. Those people who think that even moderate alcohol consumption is bad now out-number even those who think that it makes no difference (let alone think it is good for you!).

I have discussed this latter topic in more detail in a recent blog post (WHO has an unattainable requirement for health and wine).

Chimpanzees, humans and drinking wine

You may have seen some recent posts about alcohol drinking by chimpanzees. For example:

• Wild chimps consume the equivalent of two glasses of wine a day
• In the wild, chimpanzees likely ingest the equivalent of several alcoholic drinks every day
• Berkley finds chimps consume same as two glasses of wine daily

The basic claim is that chimpanzees naturally consume alcohol when they eat fermenting fruits in the wild. The conclusion from this is that we probably got our own predisposition to alcohol consumption from the ancestor that we share with the chimpanzees.

This alcohol claim about chimpanzees is like saying: “our cousins drink alcohol and so we do too, because our shared ancestor did”. This conclusion is the one also arrived at in the original science article quoted by the web page references above (Ethanol ingestion via frugivory in wild chimpanzees).

For those of you who are unclear about this situation, consider the above diagram (taken from the Encyclopedia Britannica article: Human evolution). In this diagram, we are labeled as “Homo sapiens”, and chimpanzees are labeled as “Genus Pan”. Evolutionary time in this particular diagram proceeds from left to right, and so our most recent common ancestor (ie. the one from which both humans and chimpanzees descend) is clearly indicated. This is simply the same as saying that my cousins and I share at least one pair of grandparents (through either our mothers or fathers).

It does not follow, however, that my cousins and I share all of our characteristics, and that we inherited them from those shared grandparents.

However, the formal scientific study of evolutionary history, sometimes called cladistics, actually works by observing that one group of organisms has some particular characteristic while their near relatives do not. Consider this next diagram, from my own scientific research on the plant group Lechenaultia. (My own career was as a biologist, in which one of my fields of study was evolutionary history.)

In this case, evolutionary time proceeds from right to left, and particular features of the plants are numbered. For example Character 20 is shown as being shared by the species “formosa” and “chlorantha”, and in this case is therefore inferred to have been inherited from their common ancestor. Similarly, Characters 13 and 17 are shared by them with “linarioides”, while “linarioides” does not have Character 20. It is this grouping of characters that allows the scientist to construct the diagram in the first place.

However, note that Characters 1 and 2 appear several places in the diagram, so that having either of these characters does not automatically make those species closely related, evolutionarily, nor that they inherited these characters from a common ancestor.

So, it does not necessarily follow that chimpanzees consuming alcohol automatically implies that their ancestors also consumed it, nor that their cousins (us) did so in the past, either. We both drink now, but we did not necessarily do so in the past, although this is taken to be the simplest conclusion. 

We would, however, be much better off if we had some more concrete evidence regarding the drinking behavior of our ancestors. Note that the original science article cited above observes: “The earliest archeological evidence for controlled fermentation dates to 9,000 to 13,000 years ago in China and in the Middle East”. This is not really all that long ago, when comparing us to chimpanzees!

Which countries prefer Beaujolais wine?

Beaujolais wine is widely recognized as one of France’s more popular (red) wines. Indeed, recently, the American Association of Wine Economists (AAWE) looked at France's main Beaujolais export markets 2024.

As shown in their graph (included below) the data note that the USA is by far the biggest market, followed by the UK, Canada and Japan. (Note that France is not listed in the graph, because it is not an export market for French products!)

However, this view of the Beaujolais data focuses on the size of the markets, not the amount consumed per person within those markets, which can be thought of as Popularity. In order to look at the latter, we need to take into account the population size within each country.

So, to calculate this, I divided the AAWE country total data by the Worldometer Population 2025 data for each country. However, this refers to all people, not just adults of drinking age. So, I then adjusted the data by the World Bank % people 0–14 years for each country.

This produces the final data as Euros of Beaujolais per Adult, within each country (excluding France). I have illustrated this in the next graph. This is very different from the AAWE graph (illustrating market size).

Note that Luxembourg and Belgium are way out in front in terms of Beaujolais popularity, followed by Ireland and Canada, and then the UK and Norway. Since Denmark and Sweden come next, we can conclude that Beaujolais is very popular in Scandinavia. (I quite like it myself, and I live in Sweden.)

Note that the UK, Canada and Belgium maintain a position near the top of the list in both graphs, while the USA has a very different position (it is a very large market in total). 

Anyway, the makers of Beaujolais could focus their promotional activities on the countries as listed in the second graph, just as much as those in the first list.

Australia’s best wines?

There is something different this week in the blog, as it becomes personal, and I talk about my favorite Australian wines.

Australia's best red wine

I am sometimes asked what wines I like (eg. Some personal anecdotes). Well, I can tell you what is unequivocally my favourite red wine. It is the Wynns Coonawarra Estate Coonawarra Cabernet sauvignon.

As the name suggests, it originates in the Coonawarra region of south-eastern South Australia, and it is 100% Cabernet. The 2017 vintage is shown in this picture. You can see why it is sometimes called Black Label.

My wife and I had this particular bottle a couple of weeks ago, and it was absolutely superb (as I expected).

I am so glad that I can buy each new vintage when it is released, and that I can afford it. The current release is the 2022, and it costs less than $AUD40 ($USD25). Get yourself a bottle, and put it away for at least 5 years.

You can read a relatively recent retrospective tasting here: Wynns Coonawarra Cabernet – 60 vintages tasted (“Wynns makes one of the world’s best, and best value, cabernets”).

Note also that the region is currently celebrating 130 years of Coonawarra wine.

Australia's best white wine

I can now tell you what is unequivocally my favourite white wine. It is the Tahbilk Marsanne. (Note: it used to be called Chateau Tahbilk, back in the old days.)

It originates in the Nagambie Lakes region of central Victoria, and it is 100% Marsanne (from the largest holding in the world). The 2018 vintage is shown in this picture. One of the things I like about the wine is that it lasts forever, and therefore the winery has a first release of the wines at vintage, but also has a Museum Release, at 7 years or so of age. The latter will keep for at least another decade.

My wife and I had this particular bottle a few weeks ago, and it was absolutely superb (as I expected).

I am so glad that I can buy each new vintage when it is released, and also when the museum release appears, and that I can afford both of them. The current release is the 2023, and it costs less than $AUD25 ($USD15). The current Museum Release is the 2018, and it costs less than $AUD30 ($USD20).

You can read a retrospective tasting here: Tahbilk — retrospective tasting highlights unique wine style. We actually visited the winery a couple of weeks ago, and had the usual small tasting.

Effect of online notices on wine blog readership

Last week I wrote a post about The effect of newsletter sites on wine blog readership, showing that being highlighted in online news sites really does affect the readership of my wine blog. I presented example data that being listed by Wine Industry Insight does increase readership, depending on how prominently it has been listed.

Oddly enough, that particular blog post was not listed by Wine Industry Insight, at any time during the subsequent week. Subsequently, the post readership was 65, compared to the usual average of c. 1,650 readers per post (with an overall low point of a couple of hundred people).

It is therefore intriguing that the blog post that discussed the effect of news sites on blog posts does most clearly illustrate their serious effect.

The effect of newsletter sites on wine blog readership

I do not have paid subscribers for this blog, but it is still of interest to me how many readers I get for each weekly post; and so I do keep an eye out. This number varies greatly from week to week, most presumably because of the topic being addressed in that particular week. My weekly post readership has varied from a couple of hundred to nearly 23,000, but it currently has an average of c. 1,650.

However, it seems to me that the number also varies depending on how the post is addressed by those web sites that collate a daily or weekly summary of wine-related articles. For example, a particular Wine Gourd post could be highlighted by some site in any given week, in which case it may get more readers.

One daily compilation site where it is possible to highlight web posts in variable ways is Wine Industry Insight (WII). This is currently compiled on weekdays by Kara Daly, but has previously been done by Becca Yeamans and also by Kevin Merritt.

WII has three different ways to highlight any given web article in its daily list. It can be the (single) main “Today’s Top Story”, or one of at least a dozen “More Top Stories”, or one of another dozen or so “The Rest of the News”. The number of articles varies for each daily summary, as shown for the past couple of years in this graph.

The number of items in the Top Stories (Series 1) and Rest of the News (Series 2)
sections of Wine Industry Insight, from October 2023 to August 2025.

Each weekly The Wine Gourd blog post usually makes an appearance in one of that week’s WII summaries. Furthermore, the posts have appeared in all three sections. It is therefore of interest to me to find out how variable my readership is, depending on which section the posts appear in.

To this end, I have kept a track over the past couple of years. The table below lists the average number of post readers for each of the four possible WII categories (including not appearing at all).

As you can see, my average readership does indeed go up, the more highly any given post is highlighted by WII. Getting into The Rest of the News (*) increases readership by 43% compared to not making an appearance at all (—); making it into More Top Stories (**) increases readership another 29%; and being Today’s Top Story (***) increases readership another 19%.

So, this summary site does seem to make a valuable contribution to my blog readership, by choosing how highly to emphasize any given post.

New Zealand’s wine export situation

New Zealand is currently the 7th largest wine exporter in the world (but is not in the top 10 wine producers in the world); and it is known to have high-quality production and distinctive flavors. So, I thought that it might be interesting to have a quick look at some of their actual statistics. This can be done using the New Zealand Wine data.

Below, I have compiled some of the export data from recent reports. We can start with the New Zealand Winegrowers Annual Report for 2024, which shows the export value of the NZ wine for the past 10 years.

Clearly, the export value free on board (FOB) increased until 2020, by circa one-third from 2015 onwards, and then plateaued for the next three years. There was a burst in 2023, and a drop back in 2024. This burst was apparently an up-tick in value (up) but not volume (down) ⎯ this contrasting situation (basically, an increase in the average price of the wine) was discussed in: New Zealand’s wine export dynamics: a mixed picture in 2023.

We can look at the export data to date in 2025 by looking at the New Zealand Wine Exports by Country for the 12 months to June 2025. We can then compare this to the previous 12 months. I have extracted the data for the top nine export countries in the next table, with the countries in order of FOB. The total volume for 2025 was 289 million litres, and $2.1 billion value (for the 113 export countries listed in the database).

In terms of exports, the top three countries made up 78% of the volume, and 72% of the value. Not unexpectedly, these countries are three of the major English-speaking wine drinkers  ⎯ the Americans alone took nearly 100 million litres of New Zealand wine (22 million gallons).

Interestingly, the Americans and Australians are prepared to pay more ($/litre) than are the British (see the table). In terms of volume change from 2024 to 2025, the Australians have gone down whereas the other two have increased; but all three countries have gone down in terms of value. That is, the British have increased the volume but decreased the value, thus now going for notably cheaper wine than before.

In contrast, Canada, China, Germany, Korea and France have notably increased both their volume of import and its value, from 2024 to 2025. Furthermore, the Chinese and Canadians are prepared to pay notably more for their New Zealand wine than are the other countries, followed by the Irish and the Koreans.

So, globally the New Zealand wine exports went up 5% in volume and down 1% in value, from 2024 to 2025. This seems to continue the plateau in wine exports shown in the first graph (at the top of the page).

WHO has an unattainable requirement for health and wine

In my professional life I have been a biologist in Australia. I studied at the University of Sydney (B.Sc., and Ph.D.), and I was an academic at the University of Technology, Sydney (UTS). For example, I studied the biology of native Australian plants in response to fire; and I also studied the evolutionary biology of particular Australian plants. (And yes, I have described a few new plant species; eg. see Lechenaultia, and the picture below.)

I taught about biomedical science, as well as plant and animal biology. So, the effect of wine on human bodies has been of both professional and personal interest to me. It has consequently made its appearance many times in this blog. More importantly, I don't just accept what official bodies tell me about how good or bad wine is for me, but I can make my own professional judgement based on the scientific evidence available.

Recently, for example, there have been these Wine Gourd blog posts:

• Contrary to WHO, recent medical research shows that wine is safe for cancer
• Medical research concerning heart disease indicates that wines are safe to drink 
• More medical results suggesting that wines are usually safe to drink
• Another official study indicating that alcohol is not necessarily a risk for cancer

What I would like to do in this current post is point out another recent commentary article, by Dr Erik Skovenborg, that seems to me to make a set of very important points regarding the current negative attitude of the World Health Organization (WHO) towards alcohol:

An unattainable WHO condition for the enjoyment of wine
August 26, 2025
Dr Erik Skovenborg

The essential point of the article is this: Science can’t prove a negative. So, as Skovenborg quotes the UK Health Security Agency:

“As the nation’s top public health advisory body, it’s a pretty regular occurrence for Public Health England to release health advice on a range of topics. Often enough, the bottom line for one of these pieces of advice is that the issue at hand ‘poses a low risk to health.’ Sometimes it’s even a ‘very low risk.’ What we never say, however, is that it poses no risk.”

That is, science can never prove that alcohol poses no risk to health, only that it is or is not a low risk. However, the WHO does require precisely that:

“To identify a ‘safe’ level of alcohol consumption, valid scientific evidence would need to demonstrate that at and below a certain level, there is no risk of illness or injury associated with alcohol consumption.”

So, as Skovenborg notes, “there can be no scientific demonstration of a 100% safe level of alcohol consumption ... Nevertheless, the WHO recommends an unattainable condition for the enjoyment of wine: the scientific demonstration of a 100% safe level of alcohol consumption.”

What we can all do, however, in light of the fact that virtually everything in life is risky, is decide whether any given circumstance poses an acceptable risk to us personally.

Dr Skovenborg provides an excellent discussion of evaluating the magnitude of the health risk of light to moderate wine enjoyment. This risk cannot be zero, as required by WHO, but there is little evidence that the risk to health is high. I recommend that you read his article, and take his discussion quite seriously.

PS. The latest news is: Moderate drinking linked with lower mortality in Parkinson’s patients.

Australia’s domestic wine market

Australia is currently the 12th largest wine market by volume in the world (but the 5th largest wine exporter in the world, as discussed last week: Australia’s wine export situation). So, I thought that it might be interesting to have a quick look at some of their actual statistics. This can be done using the Wine Australia: Australian wine sector at a glance.

Below, I have compiled the data for the past four reports.

The volume and value of the wine in the market went down and then up again during that time. This only partly reflects the decreasing pattern in global wine consumption (Global wine consumption really is at its lowest for a very long time), and Australia’s decreasing production. Also, Australia has been up to 10th largest global market, although it is now 12th.

The amount of imported wine in the domestic market was about 1/5th, but decreased at the end. So, the global market does make a considerable contribution to the Australian market.

The top-selling still wine varieties in the off-trade market by value varied considerably across the 4 years. Shiraz was, not unexpectedly, at the top for most of the years, with about 1/5th of the market. Two white varieties have been next during that time, with Sauvignon blanc being replaced as second by Chardonnay. Cabernet sauvignon has had about 1/10th of the market, although it was missing early on. Pinot noir was another popular variety, as was Pinot grigio.

Australia’s wine export situation

Australia is currently the 5th largest wine exporter in the world (and also the 5th largest wine producer in the world). So, I thought that it might be interesting to have a quick look at some of their actual statistics. This can be done using the Wine Australia: Australian wine sector at a glance.

Below, I have compiled the data for the past four reports.

The volume and value of the exports have continually decreased during that time, by 11%. Wine production has also decreased during that time (not shown). This presumably simply reflects the decreasing pattern in global wine consumption (Global wine consumption is at its lowest for a long time).

The balance of the Australian exports among the three wine types maintained red wines as the predominant type, but its dominance has decreased, by 10%.

The balance among the countries being exported to has changed considerably. The United States and United Kingdom have remained about 1/6th each, with Canada about half of that.

The biggest change has been for China, and thus also for Hong Kong (a special administrative region of China). For 2 years there was a major China-Australia trade kerfuffle, resulting from terrible bilateral relations. This was (China-Australia slump continues to deepen):

tied to the Australian government’s backing of an international inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 in April 2020 ... Beijing hit back against Canberra with a slew of restrictions and tariffs targeting Australian exports of barley, coal, cotton, lobster, meat, timber, and wine. In kind, Canberra also imposed tariffs on Chinese aluminium, paper, and steel.

So, mainland China disappeared off the Australia wine export stats, although it was to some extent replaced by Hong Kong. Singapore moved up into 5th place, but dropped back when China–Australia relationships improved from 2023. Mind you, China is still a difficult wine market, for everyone (China’s wine market: Recent shocks, long-term prospects).

Global wine consumption really is at its lowest for a very long time

We are being told repeatedly that current world wine consumption is getting lower, as is production, so I thought that it might be interesting to show an actual picture of consumption (ie. a graph). I have not done this for 7 years (The smallest global wine production for 55 years?).

My idea here is to plot the data back as far as we can go, which turns out to be 1860. We can do this using the Statistical Compendium produced by the Wine Economics Research Centre, at the University of Adelaide. The International Organisation of Vine and Wine online data go back only to 1995.

So, I have updated the data from my 2018 blog post, and here is the new graph.

As you can see, consumption increased pretty continuously until the late 1950s, with a big dip for World War II. Since then, it has had two ups-and-downs, with the first down being from the 1980s into the 1990s, and the second down being from 2012 to now. So, total world wine consumption really is the same now as it was back in 1960!

Note, also, that this refers to total consumption, not wine consumption per person, which varies greatly between countries (Changes in alcohol consumption since 1990,arranged by country, age and gender). The OIV has also published a list showing consumption per capita in the major wine-drinking countries, as of 2024 (Which countries drink the most wine?).

Current world Population is c. 8,000 million (World population), and is increasing continuously, as shown in this next graph. So, world per capita wine consumption is now decreasing pretty precipitously. This is not a time to be a wine producer.

The current decline in wine consumption has been attributed to a number of things, for example:

• Troubled times for wine in 2023: Global production and consumption shrinking
• Global wine consumption falls to six-decade low as inflation bites
• Gen Z is drinking as much as older generations, new data shows
• Wine demand is down. What happens now? 
• U.S. drinking rate at new low as alcohol concerns surge

Alcohol drink preferences in Iceland have been changing

It is fair knowledge that the Nordic countries except for Denmark (i.e. Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden) have their retail liquor stores owned by their governments, and I have written about this before (Why are there wine monopolies in Scandinavia?). In practice, this does not necessarily mean that alcohol sales are restricted, or that there is a poor selection, but simply that the government makes some of the profit (Why is wine often cheaper in Sweden than elsewhere?).

Iceland has in the distant past had a bad situation — indeed, there was apparently once a time when workers were paid (at least partly) in alcohol. Moreover, it is not exactly in a geographical location suitable for vineyards, and it does have miserable weather a lot of the time. So, spirits have historically been the cultural norm, as it was throughout northern Europe . The government has been trying to get things changed, as discussed below.

First, we can look at the relevant data from Statistics Iceland (Alcohol consumption decreased by 4% between years).

You will note from the graph that per capita alcohol consumption has plateaued in recent years, with beer consumption now being equal to wine + spirits combined. However, wine consumption has been greater than spirits since 2003. Good!

Note that there was actually a beer prohibition from 1915 to 1989, and that beer consumption did not pass spirits until 1995. The advertised Icelandic motto is now: Drink good beer with good friends. The government ban had originally been placed on all alcohol, but wine was legalized in 1922; and in 1935 all alcoholic beverages with >2.25% alcohol were legalized, except beer (Wikipedia). Note that the ban on beer had as much to do with independence (from Denmark, which was associated with a preference for beer consumption) as temperance (Why Iceland banned beer; Why beer was once illegal in Iceland).

I was recently in Iceland, and can report on the situation first hand. First, the draft beer is very nice, the local lamb is good, and the fresh fish is excellent. The scenery is superb, which is why there are >2 million tourists per year compared to less than 400,000 locals.

The local liquor stores that I checked out (Vínbúðin = The Wine Shop) were quite small, and had limited selections of wine, which were mostly from western Europe. Indeed, most of the shelves had bottles of Icelandic gin and aquavit. Furthermore, the cheapest US or Australian wines were $US20 for the current vintage, which is hardly cheap. This is apparently because of the taxes (Alcohol tax: Iceland pay the most in Europe).

Finally, I can suggest that vineyards may actually one day appear in Iceland. There are now several absolutely massive glasshouses, growing things that you don't expect, such as tomatoes and bananas (Why the world’s coldest country grows bananas). Their electricity is very cheap, and renewable, coming from geothermal springs (steam), hydro-power (water) and wind-driven generators (Wikipedia), and so they can have a lot of lights on a lot of the time, along with geothermal heaters. For a more naturalistic plan see: How do you grow trees in a treeless land?

Changes in alcohol consumption since 1990 (arranged by country, age and gender)

The non-drinker equivalence (NDE) is one measure of the relationship between alcohol consumption and health. It measures the level of alcohol consumption at which the risk of health loss for a drinker is equivalent to that of a non-drinker. For our purposes here, it can be used as a measure of change in alcohol consumption, if we measure NDE at different points in time.

One publication that does this is:

Population-level risks of alcohol consumption by amount, geography, age, sex, and year: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2020.

It has a giant table that contains the number and proportion of the population consuming in excess of the non-drinker equivalence in 2020, and the percentage change in NDE since 1990. I will look at this percentage here, because it allows us to sub-divide the population and look at the data in various ways.

Data are shown in that table for the whole world plus separately for each of 20 sub-regions, and separately for males and females. There are also three age groups considered: 

• 15–39 years    roughly: Millennials + Generation Z (15–44 years)
• 40–64 years    roughly: Generation X (45–60 years)
• ≥65 years       roughly: Baby Boomers (≥61 years)

Here is my summary of the data from that table. The numbers refer to the percent change in NDE in the 30 years between 1990 and 2020, which for our purposes simply measures the change in alcohol consumption (as a proportion of the population consuming a specified amount of alcohol).

Looking at the Global data (row 1), you will note that there was a much bigger reduction among the two groups of younger people (for both sexes) than among the oldest group, although the latter group also reduced their consumption. So, alcohol consumption has generally been decreasing over the past three decades, and more so among younger people.

If we look at those separate regions that have had a consistent large decrease across all age/gender groups, it includes: 

High–income Asia Pacific; Southern Latin America; Oceania; and Central sub-Saharan Africa.

If, on the other hand, we look at those regions that have had a consistent increase across all groups, there has been:

Central Europe; Andean Latin America; Tropical Latin America; South Asia; and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa.

The biggest increases have been among:

• Tropical Latin America; and Andean Latin America
• Central Europe
• South Asia; and Southeast Asia among males
• Australasia among older people.

Among the youngest people, we have had the biggest reduction among:

High–income North America; and then Eastern Europe; Australasia; and Western Europe.

Among the oldest people, we have had few reductions, and they were mostly small. The biggest increases were among:

Central Europe; Australasia; High–income North America; and Southeast Asia males.

Clearly the world of alcohol consumption has been changing over the past three decades. However, there does not seem to be much consistency among those regions showing similar patterns of change among themselves; so I do not think that I can say much more here. However, it is worth noting that, in a similar manner, per capita consumption in litres of pure alcohol across the 10 markets surveyed by IWSR has fallen by 20% since 2000 (How is the moderation trend evolving?).

Moreover, we do have to accept the fact that Baby Boomers are getting too old to drink alcohol as much as before, or they are (sadly) dying. The subsequent generations do not look like they are taking up the slack (yet?). So, given the patterns noted above for the youngest generation, we might seriously wonder:

Why the wine trade should talk up its entry-level offering.

With older, high-spending, wine-loving consumers leaving the market, here Patrick Schmitt wonders whether the drinks trade should put more emphasis on inexpensive wines for a less affluent, younger generation. Indeed so.

Another official study indicating that alcohol is not necessarily a risk for cancer

I have written quite a few blog posts about the possible relationships between alcohol and particular health issues, particularly cancer, because this has become a big issue for a number of health organizations (see: Has WHO got it wrong with its new zero-alcohol policy?). My own reading of the primary literature is that wine is one of the least problematic causes of cancer, unless consumed in excess of the recommended doses. I have listed some of my relevant posts at the bottom of this page.

In this new post, I will point out another recent official publication from the USA that indicates there is a lack of evidence regarding a link between alcohol and cancer, in particular:

Review of Evidence on Alcohol and Health (2025).

Here is the Introduction from the review:

The Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA), which serves as the primary source of dietary guidance from the federal government, provides recommendations for dietary intake and healthful dietary patterns — including alcohol intake. DGA recommendations are informed by systematic reviews. The last review on alcohol and health conducted for the DGA focused on all-cause mortality in 2020; however, questions related to weight changes, cancer, cardiovascular disease, neurocognitive health, and lactation have not been examined since 2010.

Hence this new Review was produced. It is broken into a number of sections, each of which concludes with a set of Findings, and a set of Conclusions. Here I will list here a few of the relevant conclusions.

For the section on All-Cause Mortality, they have:

• Conclusion 3-1: Based on data from the eight eligible studies from 2019 to 2023, the committee concludes that compared with never consuming alcohol, moderate alcohol consumption is associated with lower all-cause mortality (moderate certainty).

This sounds very good to me — a small amount of alcohol intake lowers mortality.

For the section specifically about Cancer, they have several conclusions:

• Conclusion 5-1: The committee concludes that compared with never consuming alcohol, consuming a moderate amount of alcohol was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (moderate certainty).
• Conclusion 5-2: The committee concluded that, among moderate alcohol consumers, higher versus lower amounts of moderate alcohol consumption were associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (low certainty).
• Conclusion 5-3: The committee determined that no conclusion could be drawn regarding the association between moderate alcohol consumption compared with lifetime nonconsumers and risk of colorectal cancer.
• Conclusion 5-4: The committee concluded that among moderate alcohol consumers higher versus lower amounts of moderate alcohol consumption were associated with a higher risk of colorectal cancer (low certainty).
• Conclusion 5-5: The committee determined that no conclusion could be drawn regarding an association between moderate alcohol consumption and oral cavity, pharyngeal, esophageal, or laryngeal cancers.

Once again, this all seems pretty reasonable to me — a lot of the relevant commentary is about lack of evidence for any relationships, which situation the Review takes very seriously.

In support of this, the table above is from The IARC perspective on alcohol reduction or cessation and cancer risk (IARC = International Agency for Research on Cancer). It lists the biggest issues about the same cancer studies discussed by the Review, indicating that there is insufficient formal evidence regarding a link of alcohol to cancer, for several parts of our bodies. If there is insufficient evidence, then how are any of us arriving at any conclusions that problems exist?

Here are some of my previous posts from this year about this topic (in publication order):

1. Current medical evidence says that wine is not harmful in small doses
2. Recent study shows that alcohol does have an important benefit in older age 
3. Recent science reports suggesting that wine alcohol is usually safe to drink
4. Contrary to WHO, recent medical research shows that wine is safe for cancer
5. Medical research concerning heart disease indicates that wines are safe to drink
6. More medical results suggesting that wines are usually safe to drink

Increasing preference for wine consumption in northern Europe

I have recently looked at: Long-term (mostly negative) trends in Nordic alcohol consumption. In particular, I have looked at current wine sales in some of the Nordic countries, with their government-owned alcohol retail monopolies (they are not big wine producers):

• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland

This week I will show you that their consumption does now focus more on wine rather than the more traditional beer (and spirits). These data come from the Annual Database of National Beverage Consumption Volumes and Expenditures, 1950 to 2015.

This first graph refers to beer intake per person (up to 2015). As you can see, since 2000 beer consumption as a percentage of total alcohol intake per year has been less than 50% and decreasing in the three Scandinavian countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden), whereas in Finland (the fourth Nordic country) it has remained fairly flat and just above 50%.

For wine, on the other hand (in the next graph), per person consumption has been increasing since the 1970s, although it took a bit of a blow in Finland in 2000 (the Covid pandemic).

This Finnish phenomenon can be seen in the third graph to be a result of a burst in spirits consumption at that time — apparently the Millennium seriously affected the Finns! Otherwise, Finland and Denmark have had a fairly constant per person spirits consumption for quite some decades, whereas Sweden and Norway have shown a decrease.

In my previous posts I had a look at which wine–producing countries now do well in the Nordic wine retailers, noting that they fit in line with other European countries; that is, the wine producers France, Italy, Spain, and Germany, plus the USA. This changing preference does match their accession to the European Union (EU), with its free trade within a single market (Denmark 1973, Finland 1995, Sweden 1995).

Norway is not a member of the European Union, but is associated with it through the European Economic Area (EEA), which allows it access to the EU‘s single market (Norway–European Union relations). It has contemplated joining the EU several times.

Climate change and its effect on grape cultivation

Modern viniculture currently has two major threats: changing attitudes by generations towards wine consumption, and changing vineyards in response to climate change. The latter is properly part of viticulture, and I will look at it here.

This topic was something that was long addressed by Dr Richard Smart, who died recently (Richard Smart: the man who changed wine):

Smart addressed the impact of climate change on wine regions, suggesting that some areas might become too hot for certain grape varieties, necessitating adjustments in vineyard management and variety selection. He consulted to vineyards to help them adapt by taking measures such as finding suitable new grape varieties for their regions.

He was absolutely right; and this is now of particular concern in Europe: Why Europe is the world's fastest warming continent. Two recent research publications by Elizabeth M. Wolkovich have been more specific, at a global scale. The grapevine characteristics included in her scientific analyses are shown in the first figure.

The more detailed of her two articles looks at Uneven impacts of climate change around the world and across the annual cycle of winegrapes (PLOS Climate 539):

    Anthropogenic [human affected] climate change has uneven impacts across the globe and throughout the year. Such unevenness poses a major challenge for human adaptation, especially for agricultural and other managed systems.
     Here, we use recent phenological models with a dataset of mean phenology for over 500 cultivars (varieties) to estimate climatic changes in growing regions across the globe for a major perennial crop that has been highly affected by climate change: winegrapes.
     We examine a suite of grower-relevant metrics, including temperatures during budburst, throughout the growing season and temperatures and precipitation surrounding harvest. We find that climate change has impacted all regions, especially for heat metrics across the full growing season (GDD [see the below graph], maximum temperature and days above 35°C). By far the largest shifts, however, are in European regions, where the number of hot days (>35°C) and maximum growing season temperatures are several standard deviations higher than before significant anthropogenic climate change.
     Climate change impacts have thus been highly uneven across the world’s winegrowing regions and the impacts are variable across the growing season.

The other paper is a review article: The problem of terroir in the anthropocene (Harvard Data Science Review, 7-2). She is particularly concerned about the way in which climate change effects the characteristics that we usually associate with wine terroir. Note also that the Anthropocene is a term used to refer to the period of time during which humanity has become a planetary force of change:

     Climate is integral to the concept of terroir. With anthropogenic climate change, the terroir of the world's winegrowing regions is changing, and will continue to change for decades or centuries.
     Here I show how variety phenology — the timing of major growth and reproductive events including budburst, flowering, veraison, and harvest — is a critical component of terroir and one that is becoming increasingly mismatched due to climate change.
     The clearest signal of this shift comes from the earlier harvests of wine grapes over the last several decades with harvests 2–3 weeks earlier in France and other regions. These earlier harvests have reshaped the climatic profile under which berries ripen, leading to wines with higher alcohol and shifted phenolic and aromatic attributes.
     But these shifts also hint at a major way to adapt viticulture to climate change — through matching variety phenology to the current and future climates of established winegrowing regions. Here I show how variety phenology — the timing of major growth and reproductive events including budburst, flowering, veraison, and harvest — is a critical component of terroir and one that is becoming increasingly mismatched due to climate change. I outline how growers and researchers alike can leverage current and new data to help develop a framework to shift varieties with climate change.

So, the purpose of these two articles is to point a practical way forward, which we would be best advised to heed. What cultivar we grow where (and thus we value the subsequent wine) will need to be re-evaluated, sooner rather than later.

Increasing trend for reservation versus walk-in winery tastings

Last week I had a look at How much we pay to visit wineries, within the USA. There is also the matter of whether we need to book a reservation for that tasting, or whether we can just walk in unannounced. I look at that this week.

First, I have noted that I originally developed my wine interest via walk-in wineries, in Australia in the early 1980s, because winery tastings were usually free and without appointment — we could just drop in during business hours. Indeed, we can still do that in some parts of Australia, even today in these very different times.

This is important because, as the recent 2025 Tasting Room Survey Report notes:

In such turbulent times, it is advised to focus on what's within one's control. For wineries across the United States, the single most important source of sales and engagement is the tasting room. In a flat, fragmented and fluctuating U.S. wine market, the tasting room crowds may not be as dependable as years past, but gleaning sales from the visitors who do make it to wine country is that much more important.

The recent Silicon Valley Bank 2025 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report also tackles this same topic, on pages 32–45, when it notes for the USA:

The most meaningful change in tasting room service styles during the 2010s was moving from walk-in standing bars to seated by-reservation tastings. The change lessened visitation numbers but increased the average order value. The question today is whether the ‘experience arms race’ has reached its peak. Only 26% of wineries exclusively offer by-appointment tastings, while 8% are exclusively walk-in. With declining visitation, the largest group of wineries, 66%, is opting for greater flexibility and offering both service styles.

These data are shown in the first graph (above).

Obviously, the fees charged for reserve tastings are pretty much double those of the standard fee, as shown in the second graph. More sadly, those fees have been continually increasing over the past 5 years. As Per Karlsson commented on my previous post:

The SVB analysis is really interesting. In some ways it is worrying, it shows a trend towards moving wine more and more towards a beverage for the rich (perhaps it is already - in particular in the US).

This point is emphasized when we look at the tasting fees charged, compared to the suggested retail price (SRP) of the wines produced by that winery, which we do in the third graph (below). Clearly, the more you pay (wine) then the more you pay (tasting).

Also, the lower is the SRP then the more likely it is that the winery provides walk-in tastings, as shown in the final graph (below). All of this also relates to the U.S. wine-producing region, as Napa and Sonoma charge above average fees (both standing and reserve), with Oregon, Santa Barbara, Paso Robles, Washington, etc charging below average.

As was recently noted: In a slower market, physical spaces are your biggest asset. In the modern on-line world, younger generations are showing a strong trend towards valuing their experiences above all else. So, the tasting experience is very important for modern wineries — after all, it cannot become digital. It was important back in My Day, too, of course. However, almost every survey shows that wine sales are declining, in both volume and dollars, and will continue to do so. We therefore need to connect to potential customers, and a tasting room is one way to do that — even in these different times, wine should still be fun, as well as a learning experience.

How much do we pay to visit wineries?

Back in “my day”, last century in Australia, winery tastings were free and without appointment — we could just drop in during business hours. However, it was expected that you would want to buy some of the wine — after all, why else would you be there? So, day trips to the Hunter Valley, north of Sydney, or Mudgee, to the west, were all the rage on weekends. (My Day was also the time when Australian wine started to come to international attention.)

As evidence that I can still do this in some parts of Australia, here is a relatively recent picture of myself at Granite Hills winery, in Victoria, with Llew Knight the proprietor / winemaker. (I can highly recommend the wines.)

Another common way of selling direct-to-customer wines (in a country with a Three-Tier System, requiring a middleman for distribution, like the USA) is a winery club, which in many cases is built up from people visiting the winery, in the first place. It has been suggested, however, that the average length of club membership is not necessarily all that much (The tough questions wine clubs face).

So, my modern question is about the charging of a fee for visiting a winery. The recent Silicon Valley Bank 2025 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Report tackles this topic on pages 38—49, with regard to the USA. I will look at a few of the take-home messages here.

The basic reason for charging tasting fees is that after the 1980s:

“Tasting fees were first levied to discourage tasters who treated wineries like
their local pub. Charging tasting fees proved effective in discouraging those
who were taking advantage of the winery’s generosity and diminishing the
experience for others.”

The fees currently being charged in the USA are pretty steep, as shown in the next two graphs, for different years and then different regions.

That is a pretty continual increase over the years. Tasting fees seem now to be an essential part of a winery’s revenue model, rather than merely offsetting the cost of the wine poured (as it was, originally). Clearly, some regions are also doing much better than are others.

When asked: “In what circumstances do you waive tasting fees?” the US winery responses were:
    for joining a wine club (the most common option)
    for purchasing a specific number of bottles
    for purchasing a specific dollar amount 
    no reimbursement (14% in both 2023 and 2024).

Clearly, given current economic circumstances, we can also ask: “Has your winery reduced tasting room fees to improve visitation?” Answer: very few. For those who have done so, we can then ask: “If your winery lowered tasting room fees, has it improved visitation?” Answer: for about one-third it has improved, and one-third it has stabilized.

We will not, of course, ever see a return to “my day”. However, to return to my original point, this final graph shows just which US winery regions do manage to get some wine purchases from their visitors, and how much. Napa is currently doing very well for itself.

Useful official advice on alcohol and your health (EU brochure)

I have recently produced a series of posts about wine availability and consumption in the Nordic countries, pointing out that it is not actually restricted, as is sometimes claimed. However, various parts of the government in, for example, Sweden do take alcohol consumption really quite seriously, healthwise. The World Health Organization (WHO) would be impressed.

As one example, my local municipal council (region Uppsala) has a web page about health, for locals. As part of this information they produce a brochure on alcohol use, which I think is very informative for everyone. Here, I have provided a translation from the original Swedish text. The original PDF file is available at: Alkohol och din hälsa.

The document is claimed to have been “compiled by specialists in the field of alcohol and health in the Uppsala Region and Uppsala Municipality”. It was last revised in January 2019, although it is still very current. You would be well advised to look through it, for your own edification.

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Region Uppsala

Alcohol and your health
How do you drink?

Alcohol affects health

Alcohol affects us in different ways. New studies show that no level of alcohol intake is completely risk-free. The risk of health problems increases the more you drink. How the body is affected by alcohol can vary. Even small amounts of alcohol can cause harm to children, adolescents, the elderly, and those with illness or medication. Alcohol should also be avoided during pregnancy, when caring for others, and before surgery.

Drinking alcohol often increases the risk of becoming addicted. Alcohol impairs judgment, thinking ability, and reaction ability. It can increase the risk of harming yourself or others in accidents. Being drunk always involves a risk.

Some examples where alcohol may be important:

• Sleep problems and headaches
• Depression and anxiety
• Reduced fertility
• Lowered immune system
• Poor wound healing
• Cardiovascular diseases
• Diabetes
• Psoriasis and skin problems
• Diseases and problems in the stomach, intestines and liver
• Cancer in the mouth and throat, gastrointestinal tract, breast and liver
• Dementia
• Brittle bones and gout
• In the event of accidents and relationship problems

Benefits of drinking less

You can have better general health and sleep. Your memory and ability to concentrate can improve and you can handle stress more easily. You also reduce your risk of developing various diseases.

Consider your own habits

• When do you drink beer, cider, wine or spirits?
• How often do you drink?
• How much do you drink at one time?
• How are you and others affected when you drink?
• What could you do if you wanted to drink less alcohol?

Risky alcohol use

Risky alcohol use involves drinking alcohol in a way that greatly increases the risk of physical, mental and social problems.

In Sweden, the term “standard glass” is commonly used to calculate how much you drink. A standard glass is the amount of drink that contains 12 grams of pure alcohol:

50 cl beer or cider (2.8–3.5%)
33 cl strong beer, strong cider or alcoholic soft drink (5%)
1 small glass (12 cl) wine (12.5%)
8 cl fortified wine (15–22%)
4 cl spirits, e.g. whiskey

A bottle of wine (75 cl) contains about 6 standard glasses.

Limits for hazardous alcohol consumption

Female: 4 standard drinks or more on the same occasion (for example, during an evening). 10 standard glasses per week (equivalent to just under 2 bottles of wine).

Male: 4 standard glasses or more on the same occasion (for example, during an evening). 10 standard glasses per week (equivalent to just under 2 bottles of wine).

Pregnant: For pregnant women, as well as children and young people, all use of alcohol is considered risky use.

Tips for those who want to drink less

• Write down how much alcohol you drink for a few weeks.
• Think about situations in which you can change your habits.
• Allow at least two days each week to be completely alcohol-free.
• Replace every other glass of alcoholic drink with water and thus halve the amount of alcohol you drink.
• Choose drinks without alcohol or with a lower alcohol content.

Did you know that …

• Alcohol contains a lot of calories, the higher the alcohol content, the more calories in the drink.
• One can of folk beer per day for a year is equivalent to approximately 19 full bottles of hard liquor.

How much do you drink?

Fill in how many standard glasses you drink per day during a week.

To compare different types of alcoholic beverages, use the standard glass measurement. For example, a standard glass is equivalent to:

Support for those who want to change their drinking habits

You can always turn to health care professionals for advice and support. There are prescription drugs that can reduce alcohol cravings. All health care clinics are confidential.

At the Alcohol Line there are counsellors who can provide information and support. Tel. 020-84 44 48 or info@alkohollinjen.se.

 

At alkoholhjalpen.se there are facts, tips and discussion forums. The services are free of charge and you can remain anonymous.

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Brochures like this are part of the increasing pressure on alcohol consumption, in the modern world (after all: Mid-strength wines may win where no-alcohol failed). Indeed, there is explicit pressure for wine labels to have health warnings, similar to those for tobacco packages. Indeed, recently: Alaska introduces cancer warnings to bars and liquor stores. Even the USA officially links alcohol and tobacco, as the United States Department of the Treasury has the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau, and the United States Department of Justice has the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. Sweden has not yet gone that far!