Long-term (mostly negative) trends in Nordic alcohol consumption

I have recently looked at current wine sales in some of the Nordic countries, with their government-owned alcohol retail monopolies (they are not big wine producers):

• Sweden
• Norway
• Finland

There is one final thing to look at, which is the long-term sales / consumption trends. This can be done using the data compiled by the Nordic Alcohol and Drug Policy Network (NordAN). To quote their website:

NordAN was established in September 2000 as a network of non-governmental, voluntary organisations that all worked to reduce the consumption of alcohol and other drugs, and who supported evidence-based alcohol and drug policy, and who did not receive contributions from the commercial alcohol industry.

They consider their work to be important because:

The Nordic [Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden] and Baltic [Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania] region has been an exciting laboratory for everyone interested in alcohol research and policy. With Nordic countries, we have a long and effective experience with WHO recommended alcohol policies, and with that one of the lowest alcohol consumption and harm rates in Europe.

So, I have reproduced here their graphs for the five Nordic countries, for total alcohol consumption not just wine, per capita. Unfortunately, they do not yet include the data for 2024, and for Iceland and Norway not even for 2023. Still, they do show the general trends since 2010.

Note, first, that the data for Denmark and Norway refer to sales, while the data for Finland, Iceland and Sweden refer to consumption, which is not necessarily quite the same thing.

Norway (in the first graph, above), shows a downward trend in sales from 2010 until 2015 (to 90% of the 2010 level), followed by a plateau until 2019, and a massive spike in 2020—2022, although the sales are now returning to the 2010 level. This peak coincides with the Covid-19 pandemic, of course, which spread rapidly from 2020. Presumably the Norwegians stayed at home a lot more, in a form of voluntary lock-down (cf. Bay Area drinking 42% more alcohol than usual while sheltering in coronavirus pandemic).

Denmark (in the second graph) shows a plateau in sales for most of the time, after a dip in 2012. There is then a spike in 2021, which may be related to that in the Norway data (July 2021 was the summer of the delta Covid variant). Note, also, that Denmark does not have a government-owned retail monopoly on alcohol sales, unlike the other Nordic countries. Apparently, Danish wine imports remained stable in 2024, although there was reportedly an increased concentration on wine producers from the EU (Italy, France and Spain accounted for 65% of Denmark’s total wine import volume, with Portugal and Germany making up another 25%).

Finland (in the third graph) shows a rapidly decreasing trend, so that 2023 is only 75% of the 2010 number. This cannot be good for the suppliers, although it refers to consumption not sales. However, this trend is definitely in line with current World Health Organisation policy (Recent science reports suggesting that wine alcohol is usually safe to drink), although compare with: The WHO is making a mistake about state-owned alcohol retailers.

Iceland (in the next graph) refutes these previous data by showing a rise (of 15%) in consumption from 2010 until 2015, followed by a plateau, with a spike in 2021. Note that the years 2015 and 2021 appear in several of these country patterns.

Sweden (in the fifth graph) has shown a very slow decline (of 15%) in consumption throughout most of the time. There is not much of a pandemic—related rise.

So, with the exception of Iceland, there is a general downward trend here, with apparent Covid-19 spikes to one extent or another. Indeed, as suggested by NordAN, with their relatively low alcohol sales / consumption, the Nordic countries can be worth looking at long-term. Other countries are also reporting drops, of course (eg. Ireland sees 4.5% drop in alcohol consumption), so that the global wine situation has been negative since 2017, as shown in the final graph (from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine, OIV). This is occurring because younger people are not drinking wine to the same extent as their forebears, worldwide (eg. The social role of alcohol is changing).

The relative consistency of each Nordic situation is certainly in distinct contrast to the situation elsewhere, especially in the USA (eg. Inside NYC’s wine retail apocalypse), where the multitude of retailer types yields a multitude of economic situations. Incidentally, The 7 happiest countries to live in apparently include: 1 Finland, 2 Denmark, 4 Iceland, 6 Norway, and 7 Sweden. Mind you, it has also been noted that the Top 10 most expensive countries to live in include: 2 Norway, 3 Iceland, and 5 Denmark. (NB: Iceland and Norway are not members of the European Union, but are members of the European Economic Area).