US wine exports, as seen by the consumers

We are sometimes told that: Growing export demand is the key to a successful grape and wine sector. Sadly, over the past year we have seen the nose-dive of Australian wine exports to China, which was previously its biggest export market (Australian wine exports reflect challenging year). However, that particular  topic is depressing, so let's move on.

The USA is having no such problems; so, let's look at its exports, instead. However, when looking at such things, the wine industry tends to like big numbers, unless they refer to tariffs or other taxes. So, exports tend to get reported as the sum total of the amount of wine exported, or the value (or both). However, neither of these two things is of especial interest to the end consumer.

The consumer is a valuable partner in the business of wine, being the end-point of the wine trail. So, I thought that it might be of interest to look at recent US wine exports, per capita for each export market itself. That is: how do the individual customers see the US export market?

I have taken the export data from USA Trade Online, for January–July 2021. The database provides the value in million $US, for the top 60 export countries — these data have recently also been listed by the AAWE. Canada is the no. 1 market, with twice the dollar value of the United Kingdom, which is, in turn, twice that of each of Japan, South Korea, and Hong Kong.

I then retrieved the population size of each of these territories from Worldometers (Countries in the world by population, 2021). Dividing the one number by the other gives us the per capita US$ value for each country. Obviously, this is an under-estimate of actual expenditure per drinker, given that the younger part of each population does not drink wine, and that there are teetotalers.

Basically, countries with small populations do not have large per capita expenditure on US wine, while countries with large populations may or may not have this. What is more interesting, however, is the geographical location of thee countries. The following table lists the 60 countries in decreasing order of per capita $US value, with an indication of their general location (click to enlarge).

Did you guess, beforehand, that the biggest expenditure would be among the islands of the Caribbean? It makes sense, though, since that is where many of the (free-spending?) US tourists are likely to be. We would be much more surprised if it turned out to be elsewhere in Central America, such as El Salvador or Guatemala, where the tourists are generally not.

Canada, as I noted, is the biggest export market, and also seems to be prepared to spend a fair amount per person. Similarly, Hong Kong is a large market, and also spends pretty well per person.

The same cannot be said of the United Kingdom, or South Korea, or Japan, which are the other large markets by value. The UK, of course, does have many competing import markets, not least Australia; and so their expenditure on US wine will be less.

Europe is very variable in per capita spending on US wine. The Scandinavian countries lead the way, having little indigenous wine production, although Norway spends twice as much as Sweden, but only half as much as Denmark.

We would, of course, be surprised if the big wine-making countries spent big on US wine; so Spain and Italy trail the others. However, France is in mid-field, along with some other wine-producing countries, such as Australia and New Zealand. Germany's similar mid-field position is interesting, because, globally, no other country now imports more wine than Germany (although most of it is imported in bulk).

Asia is also very variable, with the rich city-nations leading the way (Hong Kong, Singapore, and Macao). South American countries apparently have little interest in US wine, although Uruguay is ahead of the others.

Anyway, this paints quite a different picture to a consideration solely of total value. The wine industry could usefully adopt this viewpoint for other important numbers, as it should help with an understanding of how things look to the customer, which cannot be anything but useful.

The Real top wineries of New Zealand

A few weeks ago, I discussed a possible listing of The Real top wineries of Australia. What I did was look at the winery rankings from The Real Review, a web site run by Huon Hooke and Bob Campbell, along with their collaborators (listed here). Huon is an Australian and Bob a New Zealander, so both countries are covered by the website. Here, I look at the New Zealand wineries.

New Zealand wine has become globally recognized. For example, the JamesSuckling.com site has just released their notes for the 760 bottles that they rated in the past year and a half (New Zealand comes alive: Vibrancy, diversity and a Goldilocks vintage). The average quality score was 91.8 (with a median of 92); and one wine scored 100: Kumeu River Chardonnay Kumeu Mate's Vineyard 2020. The report summary notes:

Freshness is something that really stood out in our tastings and ratings of top New Zealand wines ... The wines have an uncanny texture and vibrant flavor profile that combine in a unique way — not only with ripe and transparent fruit character but also with round mouthfeel, brightness and length.

Each year since 2018, The Real Review has presented a ranking of the wineries from New Zealand. The rankings are based on the average scores for all of the wines they have tasted during that year, from each of the wineries. However, it is important to emphasize that only a subset of the wines of New Zealand get tasted in any given year. In this sense, it is entirely possible for a winery to not be ranked in a particular year, even if it has scored highly in other years, simply because insufficient wines were rated that year (the minimum necessary appears to be 2).

Many wine commentators seem to see their job as encouragement, and thus present optimistic wine ratings, for example. The Real Review, on the other hand, prides itself on being much more realistic. In this sense, their wine scores and winery rankings might well be a very good place to start listing top wineries.

As I did for Australia, what I have done is download the winery lists for each of the four years (2018, 2019, 2020, 2021). These simply list the wineries in rank order of their wine scores, with a different number of wineries each year. I then pooled the yearly lists for each country, giving me a combined list of 262 wineries for New Zealand, which I will report on here.

From these combined lists I extracted the data for only those wineries that appeared in all four yearly lists, which is 99 (38%) of them. (Number of wineries that appeared three times: 51, appeared twice: 51, appeared once: 61.) These consistent wineries were then given a new rank, within each year, based solely on this subset of the wineries. I then averaged these rankings, thus producing a list showing those wineries that rated consistently well across all fours years.

This final list is included at the bottom of the post.

Bizarrely, if we compare this list with the Wine & Spirits Top 100 Wineries of 2021 (“as determined by their performance in the magazine’s two-step blind-tasting process, and celebrated for their exceptional wines”), then we find no wineries listed at all. Australia and Chile each get three wineries listed, and Chile and South Africa get one each, but New Zealand gets absolutely nothing.

On the other hand, The World’s Best Vineyards is “an annual listing that highlights the very best winery destinations in the world ... [This] provides an insight into the best all-round winery experiences.” From the list below, we find Craggy Range (11th), Felton Road (52), Black Estate (63), Ata Rangi (69), Man O'War Vineyards (79), and Kumeu River (91). Missing from our list is Rippon Vineyards, from Central Otago (15th), which had insufficient wine reviews to be included in the Real Review listing.

Interestingly, if we peruse the regions from which these wineries come, Marlborough accounts for 30% of them, although it produces 75% of New Zealand’s wine. Hawke's Bay comes next, with 18% ow the wineries, followed by Martinborough, with 11%.

Finally, The Real Review does have a list of Top Value Wines of New Zealand. However, this may not do you much good this year, since it has been noted that NZ wine lovers are facing shortages and higher prices, due to a small vintage and massive international demand.

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New Zealand’s top wineries, as consistently ranked by The Real Review

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Average score 97.5 96.8 96.8 95.5 94.5 93.5 88.5 88.0 85.3 84.5 84.0 84.0 83.5 83.0 83.0 80.3 79.5 79.3 76.8 76.5 71.8 71.5 70.5 69.8 69.3 69.3 68.8 67.8 67.3 66.3 65.8 65.5 65.5 64.5 63.8 62.3 61.8 61.3 61.0 59.3 58.8 58.8 58.5 56.8 56.5 56.0 54.0 53.0 53.0 50.3 50.0 50.0 50.0 48.0 44.3 43.5 41.3 40.3 39.8 39.0 38.0 37.5 37.0 36.5 35.3 33.8 32.3 30.0 29.8 29.5 28.8 28.3 28.3 27.5 26.3 25.3 25.0 24.0 24.0 23.8 23.0 22.0 21.8 21.8 21.3 20.3 20.0 16.8 16.5 16.0 14.3 13.8 12.5 11.5 9.5 9.5 9.3 8.5 7.0

Winery Craggy Range Destiny Bay Felton Road Wines Framingham Kusuda Wines Dry River Wines Pegasus Bay Quartz Reef Trinity Hill Elephant Hill Estate Clearview Estate Winery Te Mata Estate Villa Maria Church Road Vidal Estate Greystone Wines Pyramid Valley Vineyards Terra Sancta Smith & Sheth Ata Rangi No 1 Family Estate Blank Canvas Seresin Estate Te Whare Ra Wines Akarua Fromm Winery Esk Valley Giesen Wine Estate Rockburn Wines Astrolabe Wines Kumeu River Man O'War Vineyards Mills Reef Neudorf Clos Henri Misha's Vineyard Stonecroft Margrain Vineyard Dog Point Vineyard Black Estate Palliser Estate Valli Sacred Hill Wines Tantalus Estate Amisfield Chard Farm Saint Clair Family Estate Foxes Island Wines Obsidian Nautilus Estate Escarpment Grasshopper Rock Mondillo Vineyards Forrest Estate Matt Connell Wines Tony Bish Rapaura Springs Domain Road Vineyard Te Awanga Estate Te Motu Soho Wine Co Mudbrick Two Rivers Luna Estate Nga Waka Hunter's Wines Urlar Alpha Domus Coopers Creek Huia Mahi Wines Lawsons Dry Hills Wines Whitehaven Johanneshof Cellars On Giants Shoulders Sam Harrop Wines Jules Taylor Wines Isabel Estate Vineyard Mount Edward Johner Estate The Elder Pinot Wines Borthwick Vineyard Clark Estate Lamont Wines Te Kairanga Estate Yealands Estate Wines Ash Ridge Wines Cable Bay Vineyards Tohu Pask Moutere Hills Wither Hills Zephyr Mission Estate Allan Scott Family Winemakers Two Sisters Vineyard Black Barn Vineyards Mt Beautiful Peregrine Wines

Does more vineyard area mean more grape varieties?

Answer: yes — and no. The wine industry always has complexities.

Back in Ancient Rome, Pliny the Elder wrote (in his Naturalis Historia):

Democritus, who has declared that he was acquainted with every variety of the grape known in Greece, is the only person who has been of opinion that every kind could be enumerated; but, on the other hand, the rest of the authors have stated that they are quite innumerable and of infinite extent, an assertion the truth of which will be more evident, if we only consider the vast number of wines. I shall not attempt, then, to speak of every kind of vine, but only of those that are the most remarkable, seeing that the varieties are very nearly as numberless as the districts in which they grow.*

Ancient Greece was the origin of grapes cultivated to make wine, as far as the Romans were concerned. So, Pliny was suggesting, in part, that the number of grape varieties is associated with the lengthy time over which they have been cultivated.

However, he is suggesting something else, as well. It is also possible that the number of grape varieties is associated with the amount of land that is used for that cultivation. That is, the more area available, and thus the more micro-climates, then the more likely it is that different varieties will be grown (and thus different wines made). Pliny is thus considered to be the originator of the idea of terroir in wine-making.

I thought that I might look at these two things, together. As a source of data, I have used the Organisation Internationale de la vigne et du vin, which lists countries with vineyards larger than 50,000 hectares in 2020 (with 2016 as the latest available data for smaller areas). Since my question is about wine-making not grape-eating, I have excluded (in decreasing order of grape-growing area): China, Turkey, Iran, India, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkmenistan. I have used all other countries, except that the data for the number of varieties are missing from South Africa.

The remaining data are plotted in the first graph. Each dot represents one wine-making country, located with the number of reported grape varieties shown vertically. The horizontal axis represents the recorded vineyard area (in hectares) — note that the scale is logarithmic.

This might look like a bit of a mess; but, in fact, it illustrates both of the points made above: the number of varieties can be influenced either by cultivated land area or by length of cultivation.

To see this more clearly, I have annotated the graph for you, in the next figure. I have added labels for some of the countries, and a summary line illustrating the relationship between number and area.

Let's take the line first. This illustrates a strong logarithmic relationship for 15 of the countries (ie. excluding Georgia, New Zealand, Armenia, Moldova, Chile, Spain). It indicates that whenever we double the vineyard area then we get c.80 more grape varieties (technically, this accounts for 70% of the between-country variation in the number of varieties).** So, we may safely conclude that, yes, the number of wine-grape varieties often increases with the amount of land that is used for their cultivation.

Note that Italy and France are at the top of the line, with the greatest number of recorded grape varieties (454 and 383, respectively). It has often been claimed that Pliny also commented to the effect that Italy has more kinds of wine grapes than there are grains of sand on a beach. Alternatively, it has also been noted that the Roman poet Virgil said: “It would be easier to measure the grains of sand in Greece, despite the different varieties of grapes.”

Greece is no longer in the picture as the cradle of wine-making. This role is now acknowledged to have occurred at least 8,000 years ago, in the area now occupied by Georgia and Armenia, which are much further east. You can see the result of this in the graph, as they both have a large number of grape varieties even though these days they do not have a lot of grapevine area. (Aside: in Georgia the vineyards’ share of the total agricultural crop area is greater than in any other country.) Most of these varieties have been there for thousands of years, but are not ones in common use elsewhere. In Georgia, for example, the two most common grapes are the whites Rkatsiteli and Tsolikouri, followed by the red Saperavi — when was the last time you saw these on the label of a bottle of your wine (U.S. wine imports from Georgia and Armenia)?

That accounts for two of the exceptions to the area / number relationship — ancient history is important. New Zealand’s placement in the graph is probably explained by recent history, instead — experimentation in response to climate change, trying new varieties to see which ones work in the new climate regime. This is also being done in Australia, and also the USA. However, the graph indicates that it is not (yet) being done in Chile, the only other New World country that does not fit the area / number relationship. In the Old World, the current trend seems to be more towards re-purposing the current varieties, rather than trying new ones.

This leaves Spain as the remaining odd-one-out. Spain is well known for producing oodles of bulk wine from a few high-yielding varieties, much of which ends up in France, to help bolster what is labeled “EU wine”. This may be slowly changing, especially in areas such as Rioja. Nearby, Portugal is a very different place. In the graph, it is the unlabeled point furthest above the line. It has only 20% of the vineyard area of Spain, and yet it has 2.2 times as many grape varieties — this is much more “normal”, according to the graph.

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* This same book is usually credited as the source of “...volgoque veritas iam attributa vino est.” [It has become quite a common proverb that in wine there is truth.]

** Remember: this relationship applies among the points, not outside them. It would, for example, be naive to think that doubling from 10 Ha to 20 Ha would add 80 varieties!

Sicily turns up the (wine) heat

Obviously, I have a collection of Australian wines in my “cellar”, since those are the types of wines I grew up with. In addition to these, there is only one other region whose wines I have specifically tried to sample extensively, and that is Sicily.

This interest started from several holiday trips that my wife and I made to the island. There are many things to see there, from spectacular (often volcanic) scenery, to megalithic graves, to Ancient Greek ruins (the best of which are in Sicily and Turkey, not in Greece), and on to Late Baroque architecture (extensive in the south-east). More importantly, there are many places to sample mamma's home cooking, as well as the local wines.

So, I made an explicit attempt to acquire what wines I could get, from a wide range of online stores in the European Union. During 2015 to 2017 I managed to get 170 wines, many of which I am still drinking today. For example, we had a Benanti Etna Bianco 2017 with our Blue Mussels, plus Salmon patties, the other day.

I have, however, visited only five wineries — Gambino, Murgo, Florio, Benanti, and Gulfi. Of these, Gulfi is in the Hyblaean Mountains (Monti Iblei), which is the original home of the Nero d'Avola grape. This is the most common Sicilian variety now being trialed in New World vineyards. (Avola is the coastal port from which the wines were exported, just down the road from where Archimedes of Syracuse lived. It is also next to the town of Floridia, which recently set the highest temperature ever recorded in Europe.)

Of the other wineries that I have visited, only Benanti is on the lower slopes of Mount Etna, which is the region attracting most of the recent media attention for its wines. There are plenty of web reports (eg. Sicilian success: Producers on Mount Etna climb to greater heights with vigor and determination); and there is now a book, as well — The New Wines of Mount Etna: An Insider's Guide to the History and Rebirth of a Wine Region (2020) by Benjamin North Spencer.

Given the recent interest, it is not surprising that large-size comparative tastings have been appearing. The most recent of these comes from Stuart Pigott, at the James Suckling web site (Etna erupts in the glass as Sicily’s colorful wine plume spreads). The report has 353 wines rated from the island, with 118 (one-third) of them being from the Etna DOC.

The graph below shows the data for these wines, with the quality scores horizontally, and vertically a count of the number of wines at each score. The scores in red refer to the Etna wines, with the remainder being in blue.

Clearly, the Sicilian wines have done rather well, with an average score of 91.2 points (and a median of 91) — only five of the wines scored less than 86. This is better than the recent scores for 256 wines from New York state, with an average score of 90.2 points and a median of 90 (New York state of wine). However, it is not as good as the organic wines that I reported on recently (Do biodynamic wines taste better than organic wines?), with an average score of 92.1 points and a median of 92, nor the biodynamic wines, with an average score of 93.5 points and a median of 93.

More importantly for our purposes here, the Etna wines do better than the wines from the rest of Sicily, with an average score of 92.0 points (and a median of 92). Indeed, for all of the scores above 92, Etna has more wines recorded, even though it comprised only 33% of the sample. Four of the top five wines come from the Benanti winery, which I mentioned twice above — the report notes that this is “no surprise, given that the Benanti family has been one of the driving forces for Etna wines for more than 30 years.”

If you are interested in trying some of these wines, there is a follow-up report on: Great value wines: 10 Etna Rossos for under $40.

To be labelled Etna Rosso, the wines must be made from the varieties Nerello mascalese and Nerello cappuccio, of which Nerello mascalese is the main grape responsible for the interest in Etna wines. It has been tried elsewhere in Sicily, but nowhere else than Etna does it produce wines of distinction. It will be interesting to see how it goes on the other continents where it is now being trialed, as a producer of Pinot noir style wines.

Carricante is the main variety for wines labelled Etna Bianco, but it can also include Catarratto, Grecanico and Minnella. It is a welcome antidote to the sea of Chardonnay and Sauvignon blanc wines, with which the world-wide industry is currently awash. Indeed, stylistically, it reminds me of the unoaked whites of the Rhone Valley or Rioja, both of which have recently been championed:

• Why you should consider opulent white wines from the Rhône Valley
• In praise of white Châteauneuf
• Racy and ageworthy, Rioja’s white wines deserve attention

Finally, my wife and I have actually contemplated retiring to Sicily. However, her comment at the time, as we drove around the southern slopes of Mount Etna, was: “I am not living on a volcano”. Given recent events in the Atlantic, I can see her point — Etna is, after all, Europe’s most active volcano. Maybe Portugal would be a better bet?