tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post8734032467138390132..comments2024-03-29T08:47:59.918+01:00Comments on The Wine Gourd: Are you ready for the cyclical downturn in the US wine market?David Morrisonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11578729952036086391noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-77366157824314518222020-02-06T08:13:11.209+01:002020-02-06T08:13:11.209+01:00As I emphasized in the post, it is a forecast not ...As I emphasized in the post, it is a forecast not a prediction. It simply says "if things continue the same way, then this is what happens next". There may be individual explanations for each pattern, nevertheless.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-58013041036175444322020-02-06T02:56:25.404+01:002020-02-06T02:56:25.404+01:00It's rained a zillion times, but there has onl...It's rained a zillion times, but there has only been one sustained market downturn in your analysis, so it seems to be quite a leap to base a prediction on a single occurrence. I have no clue, but do you have any idea what happened in the mid-80s to mid-90s? Doesn't appear to be related to economic activity. <br /><br />Also, you are using nominal cases, not %, so if your graph holds then the downturn would only be around half as severe as the previous one.<br /><br />I have no real doubt that a slowdown is coming, but maybe it's driven by factors not found in historic data.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08612589529043467922noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-31920485543336304682020-02-05T22:10:45.764+01:002020-02-05T22:10:45.764+01:00Plantings numbers need to be mandated to allow gro...Plantings numbers need to be mandated to allow growers the opportunity to see 'the forecast' of wine grapes coming into the market in three years. Over planting is the reason for the downturn as more cases of wine are produced and not selling. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18176908334775167636noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-9052046220018747272020-02-04T09:20:23.393+01:002020-02-04T09:20:23.393+01:00Forecasts don't really offer guidance. They si...Forecasts don't really offer guidance. They simply say: "what happened last time will happen again next time". At best, that will often be approximately true, but is unlikely to ever be true in detail. The weather bureau says "it will rain a lot tomorrow", but they can't say exactly how much rain there will be.David Morrisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00276520192744208262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-68358954441921514792020-02-04T00:52:32.975+01:002020-02-04T00:52:32.975+01:00Good analysis. The degree is the downturn is the m...Good analysis. The degree is the downturn is the most uncertain aspect. Does it make sense to use the history of down turns, including and excluding the big 10 year decline for guidance? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1392866426745021699.post-75576551666789875952020-02-03T18:56:13.539+01:002020-02-03T18:56:13.539+01:00One bright light: the thousands of tasting rooms ...One bright light: the thousands of tasting rooms from the Rockies to the Atlantic welcome literally hundreds of thousands of new customers every week. There they learn to drink varietals, not brands and are a source of wine education/appreciation that will help all of us sell more wine to those a bit intimidated by some of our jargon and occasional pretense. A rising tide.....Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13657402975704086282noreply@blogger.com